Friday Cowboys Riffing: Dak’s no-deal & Brad Sham evaluates our all-time rosters
By Bob Sturm 1h ago
166 days since Super Bowl 54 was won in Miami by the Kansas City Chiefs, 85 days since the pandemic forced the NFL Draft to be held completely online and, believe it or not, just 58 days until the “scheduled” Week 1 battle as Dallas visits Rams in the new stadium opening in Los Angeles…
Here’s a list of things that could have altered the Cowboys’ extended impasse with Dak Prescott:
*If there were no coronavirus shutdown, I believe this deal is done months ago. Prescott does not attend Mike McCarthy’s first OTA-sessions in Dallas in late April/early May, and this puts everything in motion for resolution back then. But with no team activities at all for the first time in recent history, there was also no pressure on the Cowboys to resolve this. That really seemed to ruin the Prescott/CAA plans to force the Cowboys to move to the table. Instead, we had Stephen Jones twice telling the media that they haven’t talked to agent Todd France about the contract in months.
*Speaking of CAA and Todd France, who has demonstrated his excellence seems to be built in some level of conflict: What if Dak Prescott doesn’t hire him in 2018? Now, every agent has to show his teeth at times, but you have to know that there’s a price to pay when you hire the agency/agent who was at the wheel for A) the prolonged Joey Bosa holdout of 2016 with the Chargers that still has most believing he will play his second contract elsewhere; B) the Aaron Donald holdout, producing the biggest non-QB deal ever but required the entire training camp of 2018 to accomplish it; and C) DeAndre Hopkins’ demands for a new deal several years early that resulted in Hopkins being dealt from Houston to Arizona this year. That price ultimately results in massive deals beyond what the teams ever planned on paying, but goodness, it also often ends in acrimony, tension and often a change of address for the player.
*A different result on December 22nd in Philadelphia when Prescott and the Cowboys were favored against the Eagles with a much healthier cast of characters. Dallas losing 17-9 cemented a disastrous end of 2019 and put a number of events in motion. Had the Cowboys won, Prescott would have led the team to the division title in three of his four seasons at the helm and hosted a playoff game, which certainly would have made the resume look better. Of course, that also means Jason Garrett’s resume looks different, and the odds of a head coach being fired with that same three-of-four NFC East crowns were iffy. That possibly means another extension for Garrett and perhaps means Prescott would never play for another coach during his twenties. Instead, Mike McCarthy will take the reins, which should be a long-term positive.
*Finally, we wonder what Jared Goff’s regression does to the marketplace for mega-deals on young QBs. He had an extremely disappointing fourth season after nearly winning it all in 2018. The Rams were already all-in on Goff, but 12 months later, do they already regret it? And with that $110 million as the biggest-money guarantee ever given (until Patrick Mahomes’ new deal), did that combine with the COVID shutdown to give the Cowboys relatively cold feet?
But the coronavirus did happen. Prescott did change agents to the one with the biggest teeth. Dallas did score nine points in their biggest game of the season last December. Goff did really back up. So here we are.
I wrote plenty about all of this on Monday, and while the events of this week – especially deadline day – were altogether predictable and frustrating, I will concede that the outcome of the final few hours was probably not unreasonable at all. Why would the Cowboys take a deal they don’t like with the uncertainty of a single fan attending games this year and, therefore, a wild variance on income in the entire 2020 season? Even in our households, we know that there are times to make big purchases and times to tell our spouse that maybe we should delay this big, somewhat more optional expenditure so we can get the transmission replaced.
As I said at the top, in a normal offseason and a normal NFL universe, I think this is done and dusted months ago after Dak sits out of OTA’s for a week. That is all it would have taken, but that assumes that we know the team has no income uncertainty and the player has the leverage of a mostly harmless holdout in May. Nobody wants to hear how coronavirus affected something as non-essential as an NFL quarterback’s massive contract, but at the risk of making anyone angry, it is likely true.
The Cowboys had no real incentive to make a deal they didn’t like, and Prescott had even less incentive to take a deal he didn’t like. Based on some of the commentary I receive from fans, they really don’t seem to understand that he is about to receive roughly 15 times the money in 2020 than he was paid by his primary employer in 2019. In other words, every week this season, he will make 93 percent ($1,962,500) of what he made last season ($2,120,849). The premise that he “lost” this negotiation is absurd. He simply has to continue to do what he has always done: play QB at an above-average level. He did it in the SEC during his run at Mississippi State, and he has now done that in Dallas. For almost a decade now, he has never been the best of the best, but he has always been doubted and challenged by all around him that he isn’t that great. Then he responds by playing at a level resulting in above-average stats and winning football. Since joining the Cowboys, he has started every game, and Dallas has averaged 10 wins per season. Do you know how many organizations have averaged 10 wins per season in the Prescott era? Just seven – New England, Kansas City, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle and Dallas.
I am sure you will then ask, “How many QBs were the starters for more than Dak’s 40 wins?” Well, here you go: Tom Brady has 47 (Russell Wilson also has 40 and is tied with Dak).
That is the entire list.
Yet you will hear plenty of people tell you that this proves there is something wrong with Dak and throw you some arbitrary sample size to say he holds the Cowboys back. I wouldn’t waste your time with that.
The Cowboys decided to wait. Perhaps to give the economics of the sport time to normalize, perhaps to let Mike McCarthy have a year-long engagement before they marry their eras. We can speculate on that, for sure, and I will elaborate very soon with my thoughts. But spare me the idea that both sides didn’t want a deal long ago. The issue is both sides are not willing to let the other win. Not that uncommon in pro sports at all. Both sides share in the blame. If Dak wanted a deal in Dallas, he had many chances. But he hired representation that gets the most money at almost any cost. The Cowboys wanted Prescott to prove it a few times before they roll out the biggest wheelbarrow of money they have ever given a player. Did they gamble and lose? That depends on what the future holds.
