Contract impasse between Cowboys and Dak Prescott points at two key questions
By Mike Sando Jul 15, 2020
The reported reasons for the contract impasse between the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott ring true on the surface. Prescott reportedly wants a four-year extension so he can return to the market quickly. The Cowboys reportedly offered five years. The amount of guaranteed money is typically another point of contention in high-stakes negotiations such as this one, but to focus on such granular details is to miss the most logical reasons Prescott will play the 2020 season on his one-year, $31.4 million franchise tag.
The deadline for signing franchise players to long-term extensions passed Wednesday without a Prescott agreement for reasons beyond the usual structural details that teams and players overcome routinely. The real reasons for the impasse stem from the fundamental questions facing the Cowboys as they plot their future – questions that might be no easier to resolve a year from now, when the price of the franchise tag will increase.
Question No. 1: Do the Cowboys think Prescott is a top quarterback?
We addressed this question one year ago in a column headlined, “
The Dak dilemma: Do teams succeed when they pay Tier 3 quarterbacks top-tier money?”
The franchise tag is not cheap, but it’s also not a declaration that the Cowboys believe in Prescott as their starter for the long term. It’s a hedge.
Teams typically are so scared by the thought of being terrible at the position that they pay great money for good or even slightly above average quarterbacks. They would rather have a Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins at $25-$30 million annually than risk having someone much worse. The Cowboys themselves overinvested in Tony Romo, but that was when Jones seemed to be operating without restraint. The team has appeared more disciplined in recent years as Stephen Jones’ role has grown. Jerry Jones is also likely less emotionally invested in Prescott, a quarterback he settled for in the 2016 draft after hoping to select Paxton Lynch and, later, Connor Cook, than he was invested in Romo, who was so close to the owner that Romo selected the name “Jones” for his own son. Romo also had received Bill Parcells’ endorsement, which surely carried weight with Cowboys ownership.
Coaches and evaluators have ranked Prescott between 14th and 17th in my annual “Quarterback Tiers” surveys of over the previous three offseasons, placing Prescott solidly in the third of five performance tiers. Tier 1 is reserved for quarterbacks who consistently carry their teams, including in pure-pass situations, when defenses need not worry about stopping the run. Think Patrick Mahomes. Tier 2 is reserved for quarterbacks who do these things some of the time but have a hole or two in their games and need more help. Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have frequently fallen into this category. Tier 3 is for quarterbacks who are legitimate starters, but need heavier support from their defenses and run games, and have a harder time functioning in dropback pass situations. Think Andy Dalton, the current Cowboys backup. Dalton put up exceptional numbers in 2015, when the Cincinnati Bengals surrounded him with an all-star cast, but he struggled to elevate the team when the supporting cast deteriorated. Do the Cowboys see Prescott in a similar vein? Is Dalton now their fallback?
| QB | DALTON, 2015 | PRESCOTT, 2019 |
|---|
| Starts | 13 | 16 |
| Comp. Pct. | 66 | 65 |
| Yards/Att. | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| TD-INT | 25-7 | 30-11 |
| Passer Rtg. | 106.3 | 99.7 |
| EPA/Pass Att. | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| Total QBR | 72.5 | 70.2 |
| Rush-Yds | 57-142 | 52-277 |
| Rush TD | 3 | 3 |
| Rush 1st Dns | 13 | 19 |
| Tm PPG | 26.7 | 26.7 |
| Opp PPG | 17.6 | 20.1 |
| W-L | 10-3 | 8-8 |
The 2015 Bengals were much better on defense than the Cowboys were last season, which is why Dalton’s starting record (10-3) was better than the one for Prescott (8-8). Both teams were stacked offensively, which has been the case for Prescott throughout his four-year career. As
we detailed in May, the Cowboys since 2016 trail only the Pittsburgh Steelers in starts made by Pro Bowl players on offense at positions other than quarterback.
“It’s almost like they are caught,” a personnel director said. “Dak’s stats are such that he could want to be paid like a one (Tier 1 quarterback). They realize he is not a one, and that is the disconnect. It is almost like when Seattle paid Russell Wilson. Russell then has to elevate the players around him who are not up to par, which he has been able to do. If you don’t see Dak in that way, then you are going to come into a very big issue where it is going to set your roster back.”
Prescott arguably showed enough in 2019 to jump into the second tier, but if the Cowboys could not win anything of consequence when Prescott was earning $1 million per year, what are their prospects for success with Prescott earning, say, $35-40 million for an extended period of time?
If the Cowboys loved Prescott, they would find a way to get a deal done with less regard for the particulars.
“I will say it’s very hard to do deals now because of all the uncertainty,” an NFL team exec said.
The Kansas City Chiefs nonetheless reached an agreement with Mahomes, who is so undeniably great that the team made him its overriding priority to re-sign, even if it meant getting creative with the structure. In previous offseasons, the Seahawks navigated difficult negotiations with Wilson, but in the end, the sides reached agreement on long-term deals.
Prescott is not Mahomes or Wilson, but if Ryan Tannehill can command a respectable deal from the Tennessee Titans this offseason after less than one full season of stellar production, shouldn’t Prescott be able to strike a deal after four years of exceeding expectations for production while never missing a game and consistently projecting both leadership and professionalism?
“If they thought he was the real deal, they would have paid him a while ago,” a former general manager said. “They would not have let him get to this point. Now, they have put themselves in a bind.”
Question No. 2: Do the Cowboys have the leadership they need to make the most important decisions decisively?
Head coach and quarterback are the two most important football-related positions on any team. The Cowboys lack clarity in both spots. Their ownership is responsible for the confusion.
Jerry Jones’ involvement and public profile have been so primary over the past 25 years that every Cowboys head coach during that time has had a hard time leading the team ultimately. Most recently, Jones hired Mike McCarthy as head coach while retaining one-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, leaving undefined exactly how the offense will be orchestrated. Who thinks that is an optimum arrangement? If McCarthy is a top offensive coach, the Cowboys should be signing up for all he brings to an offense. Are they?
At quarterback, the Cowboys’ inability to complete a deal with Prescott risks undercutting the quarterback in the locker room while raising questions about his viability for the long term. Prescott doesn’t want a fifth year? Fine, then sign him to a four-year pact and draft a developmental quarterback.
Instead, the Cowboys are moving forward with questions surrounding their quarterback and their overall offensive vision.
Dallas could be in a tough spot again one year from now. The franchise-tag price for Prescott will grow to $37.6 million at a time when team salary-cap allotments could shrink, perhaps significantly, as the pandemic cuts into revenues. Under that scenario, Prescott could wield considerable leverage over the Cowboys, forcing them into a player-friendly extension that reduces his cap charge. A four-year extension might not look so bad to them at that time.
