2023 Season | Conference Championship Round | Gameday Chatter Thread | 1/28/2024

[data]

It's recency bias.

I remember when people pushed Marino, then Montana, then Favre, then Peyton, then Brady, now Mahomes.

Unfortunately people are fickle and have a recency bias.

Less recency bias for bias sake, but recency bias for ratings sake.

More people will watch discussions around active players rather than Otto Graham.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

The people who advocate for this hyper aggressive decision making defend it as a numbers game. They'll say you shouldn't make these decisions based on the outcome but rather based on the probability of success. So if you make these decisions 10 times you'll be successful maybe 7 times and it sucks the 3 times it doesn't work out but you'll be successful more often than not and better off long term.

And it's even worse than that, because most of the time these percentages are more like 53/47 or 51/49 or even much closer than that.

And a pet peeve of mine, those percentages are based on years - decades - of past data when behavior was different. For instance, years ago going for it on 4th was so rare that defenses weren't mentally prepared for it. Or even physically prepared in practice, for that matter. Now they are.

It's insanity. It's basically coaches abdicating their responsibility to appease the Twitter mob. And of course their bosses the owners who also listen to the Twitter mob, aka fans.

 

[Stars]

Came here to comment about the lovefest towards Meat Head and see you guys already have it covered. What a fucking joke. I saw McCarthy take way more shit for that one pass play that stopped the clock at the end of the game against Detroit.

 

[Genghis Khan]

But at that point in the game do you really think it was worth the risk to go up 21 instead of 17 when the latter also puts you up 3 possessions and shortens the game for the 49ers?

Right. The only thing that changes in that case is the 49ers need 3 TDs instead of 2 TDs and a FG.

But if you go for it and don't make it (which is what happened of course), the 49ers now only need 2 possessions instead of 3. That's a much, much bigger difference than the extra 4 points would have been.

 

[Stars]

Also, there's a flow of game that needs to be taken into account. Yeah sometimes going for it on fourth is the right call. A good coach should be able to adjust to the game as it's happening. Not just declare that well we went for it all year and I guess I'm too fucking stupid to ever do anything different. All games are not equal. You aren't a robot. Don't just do something because that's how you did it for x amount of time.

 

[dpf1123]

Should somehow make Cowboys vs Ravens a playoff game. Between Prescott and Lamar Jackson’s choking, someone will be forced to win.

Do you really have a question who would win that game?

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Also, there's a flow of game that needs to be taken into account. Yeah sometimes going for it on fourth is the right call. A good coach should be able to adjust to the game as it's happening. Not just declare that well we went for it all year and I guess I'm too fucking stupid to ever do anything different. All games are not equal. You aren't a robot. Don't just do something because that's how you did it for x amount of time.

I really think this game will quiet - at least a little bit - the analytics nerds among fans and media who really don't know what they're talking about, they just align themselves with the almighty "experts" because it makes them feel more enlightened and sophisticated.

Now where else have I seen that phenomenon in the last few years...

 

[boozeman]

I think I read they gave the ball to their backs like six times. Tricky tricky but stupid game plan in a tight game.

 

[1bigfan13]

I think I read they gave the ball to their backs like six times. Tricky tricky but stupid game plan in a tight game.

Somehow Todd Monken managed to have a worse day on the job than Dan Quinn.

 

[Bill Shatner]

If I'm Brock Purdy, I'm not stepping foot on a football field next year without a fair raise.

 

[p1_]

One of the reasons I advocated for firing him after the game is that I think it's highly unlikely he learns from this.

I think it’s difficult to say that he won’t consider doing things differently in a conference title game where he has a semi comfortable lead against a heavily favored opponent. He lost the opportunity to take the Lions to their only Super Bowl appearance. That weighs on anyone. Even the aggressive tough guy Campbell.

 

[Tony D]

Opinions are great aren't they? We can both have ours.

No shit

 

[Rev]

But at that point in the game do you really think it was worth the risk to go up 21 instead of 17 when the latter also puts you up 3 possessions and shortens the game for the 49ers?

How many points did they put quickly? Much easier to hit a game tieing FG than the TD. Plus even if they did make that 4th down that is another set of downs to take time off the clock. They might have even had to kick the FG then but with even less time for the 49ers.

Like I said I probably wouldn't have done it if I was in that situation but I can understand the why. We only don't like it because it failed and they ended up losing.

 

[p1_]

If I'm Brock Purdy, I'm not stepping foot on a football field next year without a fair raise.

he becomes eligible for an extension early in 2025.

 

[Tony D]

How many points did they put quickly? Much easier to hit a game tieing FG than the TD. Plus even if they did make that 4th down that is another set of downs to take time off the clock. They might have even had to kick the FG then but with even less time for the 49ers.

Like I said I probably wouldn't have done it if I was in that situation but I can understand the why. We only don't like it because it failed and they ended up losing.

I take offense to your last paragraph. I said it kick it before they decided. They still had big old momentum on their side. As soon as they failed it flipped momentum. If they just kept momentum on their side for just a bit longer I think they hang on and win.

I was rooting for the 49ers actually. Already sick of the Lions. Mahomes will win it all.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I think it’s difficult to say that he won’t consider doing things differently in a conference title game where he has a semi comfortable lead against a heavily favored opponent. He lost the opportunity to take the Lions to their only Super Bowl appearance. That weighs on anyone. Even the aggressive tough guy Campbell.

Obviously no one can say for sure but my argument, which I laid out in my post, is that most guys don't actually learn from their mistakes if you look at the history of these things because they often don't see it as a mistake but rather a philosophy that they adhere to and their argument would be that no one bats .1000.

And if you look at Campbell's personal history he had several missteps during the regular season based on this aggressive philosophy and here he was yesterday basically doubling down on it, in the most important game in Detroit football since Eisenhower was president.

This all suggests he probably will continue to do things the same way.

But hey, you could be right too I guess.

 

[Rev]

Obviously no one can say for sure but my argument, which I laid out in my post, is that most guys don't actually learn from their mistakes if you look at the history of these things because they often don't see it as a mistake but rather a philosophy that they adhere to and their argument would be that no one bats .1000.

And if you look at Campbell's personal history he had several missteps during the regular season based on this aggressive philosophy and here he was yesterday basically doubling down on it, in the most important game in Detroit football since Eisenhower was president.

This all suggests he probably will continue to do things the same way.

But hey, you could be right too I guess.

Well as long as Leach was at Tech he never changed.

The current coach does it as well but I wouldn't say to the extent that Leach did.

 

[Genghis Khan]

We only don't like it because it failed and they ended up losing.

That's actually not true.

I do agree with you a little though in that the first one was way more defensible although I wouldn't have done it either but that one I can squint and understand the reasoning. The second one was brain dead.

(They also made another although lesser mistake on their last possession that no one seems to be talking about - they should have kicked the FG as soon as they got into range. They needed two scores anyway and 1 could be a FG, and needed to preserve time and their time outs much more than they needed 7 on that drive. That way they could have not had to rely on an onside kick. That in addition to the dumb running playcall on that last drive. Overall a very bad coaching day from Campbell.)

 

[p1_]

Obviously no one can say for sure but my argument, which I laid out in my post, is that most guys don't actually learn from their mistakes if you look at the history of these things because they often don't see it as a mistake but rather a philosophy that they adhere to and their argument would be that no one bats .1000.

And if you look at Campbell's personal history he had several missteps during the regular season based on this aggressive philosophy and here he was yesterday basically doubling down on it, in the most important game in Detroit football since Eisenhower was president.

This all suggests he probably will continue to do things the same way.

But hey, you could be right too I guess.

As to Campbell's history of going for it on 4th down, I would only draw a distinction between the criticality of win-or-go-home title game vs 17 games of lesser magnitude. His philosophy should be flexible enough to see the difference and decide accordingly. One size/philosophy doesnt fit all circumstances. I would hope the impact of his foolish and needless aggression that cost him so dearly wouldn't be lost on him. The tournament is vastly different from the regular season, as we Cowboy fans have been drubbed with for quite some time now.

If he cant learn and grow from this debacle, he wont last long.

 

[Texas Ace]

Like I said I probably wouldn't have done it if I was in that situation but I can understand the why. We only don't like it because it failed and they ended up losing

I never liked it and didn't need hindsight to feel that way because I've always been a huge proponent of kicking the FG if it extends the possessions required for the opponent.

I've been consistent with this every time the Cowboys do the same dumb shit as Campbell did yesterday.

I just don't think you EVER bypass the FG if it extends the possessions for the opponent.