Cowboys are underdogs in Cooper Rush’s second road start: 5 questions with a prediction
By
Bob Sturm
5h ago
The last 10 trips into New York City to play the
Giants have been a nice trend for these
Dallas Cowboys. Seven wins and three losses is a road record in division that you will take every day of the week. In four of those trips into Gotham, the Cowboys have been underdogs. They are 3-1 in that situation. They are a 1-point underdog in this spot tonight.
Of the three losses over that decade, the Cowboys’ starting QBs have been Matt Cassel,
Andy Dalton and rookie
Dak Prescott. Of course, this time they will be rolling out
Cooper Rush for his second career road start, so we should probably not assume this one will be easy at all.
Tony Romo was 3-0 since 2012 and Prescott was 4-0 after that rookie loss. But, this one will be unique in its own way and neither Romo nor Prescott will be able to defeat new Giants coach Brian Daboll and his surprisingly undefeated Giants.
We expect the stadium to be loud and the Giants have a new approach to defense. These two elements combine to make this a very interesting spot for Dallas to find itself.
Let’s do our 5 questions.
1. How well will Cooper Rush and the offensive scheme deal with Wink Martindale’s pressure plan?
One of the more interesting developments in the Giants’ new regime was all of the connections to the
Buffalo Bills. But, that isn’t quite what got my attention. Much more interesting: The complete schematic changes to the Giants’ defense.
Now, a few things for context before we apply it to this game. First, the Giants were building something pretty decent with previous defensive coordinator Patrick Graham the past couple years and most would say this was not why this team was struggling. But Graham was a believer in heavy zones and lots of four-man rushes with no blitzing. It is a popular view around the
NFL based on having a heavily populated secondary that makes it tough to come by big plays.
Wink Martindale is not that at all. He is from the
Ravens’ blitz factory that can be traced back to Rex Ryan and friends and it has never really deviated. In the past four seasons, the Ravens have been third, first, first and sixth in blitz rates and love to bring them and are willing to risk a big play at the expense of hitting your QB. After the Giants ranked 20th last year in pressure, they are already about where the Ravens were — fifth overall. In fact, they bring the most second-down blitzes of any team in the league. They also equal the Cowboys in simulated pressures in trying to confuse opponents. Those two teams are the highest in the league.
Current NFL team rankings for 2022
Now you have a QB who is not experienced in hostile environments playing a high-blitz, high-confusion defense that demands incredible communication and organization among the entire offensive line. You also have
Matt Farniok and
Tyler Smith making their first career NFL road starts. Where will the pressures come from and where will they set traps knowing that Rush might try to find a hot route and they will be waiting? It helps that the Giants are unlikely to have their two best pass rushers as
Azeez Ojulari and
Kayvon Thibodeaux are unlikely to play. That doesn’t mean they won’t scheme up some free rushers.
Can Dallas stay out of self-inflicted disasters? If so, it can win this game. But, with limited weapons and high chaos, this could be very interesting early. Dallas needs to take control of things before it loses that control.
2. Can this Dallas defensive front dominate the Giants as it did with the Bengals?
It was so impressive to see Dallas do what it did last week up front defensively.
We talked about this quite a bit on the DQ report this week: How
Micah Parsons is a superstar, but what makes the Cowboys potentially a problem is so much more. If they prove that they have a group of very dangerous players beyond
DeMarcus Lawrence who can rotate in and complement Parsons with damage of their own, that is how we know the Cowboys have leveled up. We only find that if this is a week-in, week-out situation from
Dorance Armstrong,
Dante Fowler,
Sam Williams,
Osa Odighizuwa,
Neville Gallimore and friends.
Obviously, Week 2 was much better than Week 1 — that goes for the run stopping along with the pass rush. But, the hope for Dallas to contend this year has to be built around the defensive front — the line and the linebackers. If they are what we think they showed last week, maybe they have been underrated. But, this is a game against a weaker offensive line where that needs to produce game-wrecking moments.
3. Can Tyler Smith continue his impressive rookie start and where is Jason Peters in all of this?
This kid has been very good and that has been a shock for me given his Tulsa tape and the struggles, but he deserves a ton of credit for his hard work and so does those who have provided coaching and direction on technique and mental acuity for a very complex job.
Week 3 was about the time we expected Peters to enter the fray, but Smith has been good enough to remain at left tackle. Yes, even when Peters is ready. I think we will see some Peters quickly, but I suspect the Cowboys will run him out at left guard in spurts. Look for help off the bench if Farniok finds himself struggling again. He has had a tough go so far.
4. Will Dan Quinn’s bunch be able to start getting takeaways?
Let’s quickly visit about this Giants offense. Daboll is really something and a very wise offensive mind. It brings in a lot of scheme advantages to an offense that now has two excellent young offensive tackles in
Andrew Thomas and
Evan Neal. Stopping
Saquon Barkley has been a real problem in their first two weeks — he looks healthy and explosive. If he breaks a couple big runs, this game could flip on its ear.
The Giants are using lots of motion and play action. This whole year is based on sorting out the future of their QB situation as they have already declined the fifth-year option for
Daniel Jones. This is an ominous sign as the life cycle of any first-round QB who gets his rookie option declined is almost universally a sign of a quick decline out of the ranks of starters in the league. Of course, there is always a first time and the Giants would love to be wrong enough to rush him to his signing of an extension. For now, they are probably expecting to find a new one next spring.
Current NFL team rankings for 2022
But, as we wrote about to start the season, so much of the Cowboys’ defensive resume was based on takeaways in 2021.
As that study indicated, big turnover seasons are followed by a drop of about a dozen turnovers the following year. This promises us that this is not a repeatable trick. So, two games in, a team that had 34 last year has just one and ranks 24th in the league. We have talked plenty about the best way to get turnovers is to play sub-standard starting QBs and it should probably not shock us to know that
Tom Brady and
Joe Burrow are anything but sub-standard. Daniel Jones? Well, this is where you should be making your money and the Cowboys will like to prove that theory with a couple takes.
5. Can Dallas win consecutive games and get to 2-1?
Prediction time and while this will not resemble an easy night at the office, I believe that Dallas can scratch out enough moments of brilliance to get out of Dodge with a win. I don’t think this is a lock because the Giants have done anything but beat themselves this season, but I expect Dallas will get a few takeaways and find the end zone a few times by staying out of trouble.
Michael Gallup’s return should expand the playbook a bit, but this is where I expect a big night for
CeeDee Lamb. The Giants are way more into man coverage and this is where he needs to feed.
I will take the Cowboys to win late, 23-20, and get to 2-1. If they can stay above water until Prescott returns, they have a real chance to be where they want to be.
Philadelphia looks like a real problem, but no Super Bowl has been won in September. You have to stay alive and on your path. With the win last week, the Cowboys have done just that.
Dallas 23, New York 20.
Let’s see if I have any idea about the future. (Spoiler: I do not).