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Pregame Thoughts Week 4 - Headed To Houston​

So much is on the line for both teams that hoped for a better start to their 2026 campaign.​

Bob Sturm
9 hours ago



This is a special Saturday release of our Friday Cowboys game preview, because everything got moved back for the big Joey Porter trade and the Dallas Stars preview. But, sometimes a week needs six pieces in six days, right? Next week will be plenty more of the same with the Thursday game, but such is life.

Now, before we begin, an observation from longtime subscriber Longstreet, left in the comments of our last game preview:

I love your write ups, Bob, but don’t see the point of historical analysis of any match up, given the level of personnel turnover in general and especially for the Cowboys defense.
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What is the point of historical analysis?

I’m not sure there is a point, beyond how interesting it is. Every time the Cowboys play a game, I start with the history. Why? Because we have done this for a long time and seen a lot of football games. And those memories are why we do any of this stuff.

The Cowboys have played the Texans seven times and lead the all-time series, 4-3. But, I am probably not alone when I say that I have seen every single one of these seven games and probably have at least a tiny memory of each of them.



I won’t try to prove it to you, but 2002 was one that we will never forget. At the time, it was suggested to be “Jerry’s biggest humiliation” that the new team in Texas would beat Dallas in their first ever game.

2006 was Tony Romo’s first action in the NFL. He came in to mop up late, but, little did we know that the very next week he would just take Drew Bledsoe’s job.

2010 was the one win the team had in the first two months of a season in which Tony Romo would break his collarbone and Wade Phillips would be fired. But, the TD to Roy Williams reminded me a lot of the tag-sight adjustment to George Pickens on 1st and goal in Brazil this week. The video breakdown is here.

I won’t go all the way down the list, but 2014 was a special one, too. Especially given the news of Tony Romo and JJ Watt that hit us all on Friday. These two men are tied together for all sorts of reasons. For me, it is that these two are probably the two most famous Wisconsin men to star in the NFL (apologies to Mike Webster, Joe Thomas, and TJ Watt). These two also have been Jim Nantz’s partner in the booth.

But most of us here think about this one moment in time:

Is this on the list for best moments in Romo’s career? I think very likely, it is. We never see Tyron Smith beat like this. Watt looks offside. Romo seems to be a Jedi. It was all so beautiful.

Hearing the two guys discuss it together warms the heart, too.

That is the single play that I think about in this series and I suppose there is some level of irony that the two teams will meet on Sunday just a few days after the two players were in the same news story for Romo’s dismissal from CBS and Watt taking his job. Tying these things together are what make sports history so much fun, Longstreet. I have to do it.

But, admittedly, none of those things will have much to do with this awesome matchup where both teams desperately need a win. But, it is also an essential part of setting the table for these two teams.



These are my Pregame Thoughts:

When Dallas has the ball:​

– Another week and another challenge for an offense that has been really, really good. They want to be one of the best offenses in the NFL and they are 2nd in points per drive, so we are going to say they are making their case. This should truly be best on best, and whichever side wins the battle between the Dallas offense and the Houston defense will likely win the game. It is that simple.

We know this going in. They need to get 7-10 points per quarter and continue to give their defense breathing room and margin for error. The more the offense can erase the mistakes made by the young defense, the more chance they have for winning and ultimately being a playoff team.

But, wiggle room has already been taken away by losses against the Giants and Ravens. That makes Sunday even more critical.



So, as we look at this game from a perspective of the Cowboys offense, we see that it will be incredibly vital for this offensive line to set the tone and to have a great game. I highlighted Tyler Guyton and TJ Bass because of both positives and concerns.

The positives are that through three weeks I cannot imagine better results than we have seen from these guys. They have been absolutely wonderful and I am excited about the futures of both. Guyton vs the Texans will tell us if he has really arrived, but through three weeks he has been so good.

Bass seems ready to start in the NFL – which we already knew. It almost makes you wonder if he is in your “best 5” up front already. But, we know injuries always arrive.

The Texans are an awesome defense and it starts with their two remarkable edges, 55-Danielle Hunter and 51-Will Anderson. They are as good as it gets.



But, the secondary behind it is also excellent as they have the defense to really trouble an elite offense. That said, Buffalo seemed to pass the test with flying colors in Week 1 and that should encourage Dallas a bit.



The tale of the tape shows us that Dallas will want to run the ball, but Houston takes that away better than most. But, if you go chasing the passing production, then you are leveraging plenty on your pass protection and I just don’t know how much you want those tackles trying to slow down the pass rush.

Dallas has avoided sacks as well as anyone. Houston gets sacks as well as anyone. Looks like we see where this game is decided. Up front.

Texans Defensive Feature: No. 51 - Will Anderson​


Here is the Will Anderson sack reel for 2025-26. I would argue that he is quite possibly the best in the industry now. He was voted 3rd best behind Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons by NFL Executives recently and also just signed the highest AAV contract in the NFL in the spring for $50m a year.

That is right. Will Anderson is at $50m a year. But, tell me that reel above doesn’t terrify you a bit.

Here are the NFL sack leaders since the start of 2025 - including playoffs:



You may notice that both of their edges are tied for 2nd. Do not underestimate the pass protection issues that they present. You might want to get the ball out fast and run the ball. This might be a cautious game plan early to carefully make sure you don’t beat yourself. On a lot of those sacks, the ball comes loose and the game is lost on a turnover. That must be avoided.

When The Texans have the ball:​

– This is a very critical game for the Texans who need a win in the worst way and now get Nico Collins back in the fold who is their best threat by some margin. We should expect plenty of targets to Collins and that is why we assume the Cowboys cannot wait to use Joey Porter Jr against him. This is a weak offense vs a weak defense and both teams are leaning into adding a major piece that they haven’t had.

Again, this matchup is the opposite of the other side where we have strength vs strength. This is more weakness vs weakness as a struggling Houston attack goes against a Cowboys defense that we know is still a mess. Christian Parker is feeling a bit of the critiques and now they rush Porter into the fray. If you missed the Joey Porter trade review, you can catch up here.



This is a completely rebuilt offensive line and it is very much still a work in progress and you don’t have to be a genius to see that at 0-3, CJ Stroud is getting the stares and everything looks difficult. Stroud’s contract is on the line this season, but nobody actually expects Houston to fully walk away and start over again. They know about QB Hades and would prefer to avoid it. Of course, they would also prefer to avoid a monster contract to a QB who seemed to be the best young QB in the league not so long ago.

But, they have been chasing that rookie season of 2023 ever since. As a rookie he posted an 8.2 yards-per-attempt mark, a 100.8 rating, and 23 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. In 2024 that fell to 7.0 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 52 sacks. In 2025 it stayed flat: about 217 yards per game, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. This year, the YPA is down to 6.6. They are not explosive and everything is looking difficult. The WR injuries have not helped, but Collins is back to try to save the day.



And that is why we highlight the acquisition of Joey Porter. The fact that the last time JPJ played a game, he was dealing with Nico Collins and Houston in the playoffs. Nico vs Porter gave us some very enjoyable film to examine below:

Texans Offensive Feature: Nico Collins vs Joey Porter Jr.​


I think when you see this tape, you see the vision. You see the matchup ability of JPJ. You see that he gave Collins and Houston all sorts of things to consider when trying to go to their guy. The one time Nico had space is when they ran away from Porter in a zone coverage. But, in man? Porter looked like that seatbelt.

Very encouraging. They just have to decide how much they want to play him if they don’t think he is fully in game shape. We shall see, but I bet we see plenty.



Make no mistake. The progress being made for the Cowboys is incremental. They need to generate pressure on Stroud. They need to generate takeaways. They need to get off the field on 3rd downs. And yes, they need to stop the run.

But, still, Houston is no juggernaut with the ball. Their best skill is not turning it over so far. They just don’t score points.

PREDICTION:​

Ok, I have no idea what to do with this game. The coaching staff needs a bounce back and this season needs a win that people don’t expect. This one would do wonders. I definitely think it is a coin-flip and I also know that plenty is telling me that:

The Cowboys are playing a noon game on the road.

The Cowboys are beat up physically.

The Texans are even more desperate.

Yet, I am still going to roll with Dallas somehow. Maybe it is just because I don’t want to consider 1-3 to start the year again.

Dallas 28, Houston 27. No idea. Hope is my strategy, I guess.
 
Sturm brings up the noon game on the road. I'd be shocked if we came out fast. I still can't believe this early schedule. Flying home from Brazil, on the road again on a short week and then home for a Thursday night game. And the next two games on the road too. Ridiculous.
 
How many times have we watched ex cowboys pull an all time game out of their ass against us?

Remember the return of Bobby Carpenter? I do. We were handling the Lions easily… Then we weren’t.
 
My worry is more that they aren't really 0-3 bad.

If we were coming off a win, I could see our dummies overlooking them, but at least after Rio that shouldn't happen.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
My worry is more that they aren't really 0-3 bad.

If we were coming off a win, I could see our dummies overlooking them, but at least after Rio that shouldn't happen.
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They were like 10 yards from beating buffalo, they're definitely not as bad as their record.

I think they're about the same as us, a 8-10 win team who has had a tough start to the year.

It's a pure tossup really.
 
Bipo said:
Yes, Murray. Been drinking...my bad.
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I knew what you meant. I didn't figure you meant a RB from another team was somehow haunting our LBer room. :lol
 
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