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Bucs vs. Cowboys odds, picks, predictions for Thursday Night Football

By The Athletic Staff
Oct. 8, 2026 2:00 am CDT

This week features the biggest Thursday Night Football spread of the 2026 NFL season.

The Dallas Cowboys host a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team looking to avoid its first 0-5 start since 2013, with the Cowboys favored by more than a touchdown. History isn’t on the side of the visiting team, either: The Bucs have won just four of their 16 Thursday night games this century, per TruMedia — and The Athletic’s staff isn’t expecting them to break that trend.

With all of our analysts on the same side, let’s dive into how one of them is reading this game, then quickly touch on how the result could impact the postseason picture.

Bucs vs. Cowboys odds

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My dear reader, I have a confession to make: I believe in the Dallas Cowboys.

That felt dirty to type out, but damn it, I have to live my truth.

This summer, I predicted a Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC championship. After the first three weeks, I didn’t feel so good about the Dallas part, but last Sunday filled me with confidence.

The Cowboys offense is absolutely Super. And yes, I capitalized “Super” purposefully. Dak Prescott is dealing, CeeDee Lamb is incredible, George Pickens and Javonte Williams are huge threats, and they don’t even have their best offensive lineman back yet in guard Tyler Smith.

The concern has always been the defense. While they did allow 30 points to C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, I — perhaps stubbornly — foresee better times ahead. New cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will further acclimate into the unit. And I believe in coordinator Christian Parker.

That’s bad news for Bucs undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels, who looked like an undrafted rookie in their loss to the Green Bay Packers. It’s also a short week on the road. The 0-4 pirate ship is going to take on more water.

Bucs vs. Cowboys projections

The following is based on The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by Austin Mock’s model projections.

If the Cowboys win: Dallas would have a 59 percent chance to make the playoffs, while Tampa Bay would have a 3 percent chance.

If the Bucs win: Tampa Bay would have an 8 percent chance to make the playoffs, while Dallas would have a 41 percent chance.
 
:towel

But seriously, I wish one of our esteemed media people would ask why the hell Mingo is not just getting WR snaps, but actually getting passes thrown to him.

I know the answer, and Schotty can't give a real answer, but make them squirm a little.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
:towel

But seriously, I wish one of our esteemed media people would ask why the hell Mingo is not just getting WR snaps, but actually getting passes thrown to him.

I know the answer, and Schotty can't give a real answer, but make them squirm a little.
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Stepfret Williams syndrome. Can't get open in real games
 
Chocolate Lab said:
I secretly rooted for him and Kavika Pittman in those days. :stop
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Signature scene representing the Jones era, the cheering war room when they snap-drafted Kavika Pittman after their idiotic trade down into the top of the 2nd made them miss drafting Tony Brackens with the last pick of the 1st round.

A used car salesman, surrounding himself with sycophants and the results of incompetent, inbred nepotism playing at being an NFL GM in an effort to prove he could because he was so butt-hurt after Jimmy Johnson received all the credit for Dallas' success when it was he who took all the financial risk.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I started the week thinking Overshown was a good shot to play. Hell they started last week like he could play against Houston. And now we are back to Winters fucking shit up for 4 quarters. It's fine, I get wanting to make sure the hammy is full go before putting him on the football field. It's just annoying this guy with his injuries. I don't know why I even bother caring about Overshown playing. He is just going to get hurt again. He needs a full body guardian cap.
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With the longer break in between breaks, I would use this opportunity to bring in Wagner.

Again, he's not going to cost much and how much worse than Dee Winters or an unreliable Overshown can he really be?

I think just his veteran smarts alone are going to make him better than Winters for the simple fact that he's going to be able to diagnose plays and be where's he supposed to be 100% of the time.

I don't see any harm in kicking the tires on the guy given our current LB situation.
 
Simpleton said:
I'd guess maybe a 5th, he's old but has been producing well enough the last year or two, and especially early on this year.
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A 5th for Mack?!

No way I'm giving up a 5th for a 35 or so year old player on the last year of his contract who had 5.5 sacks last year and 6.0 the year before.

They MAYBE could get a 6th from me but that's it.
 
Texas Ace said:
I think just his veteran smarts alone are going to make him better than Winters for the simple fact that he's going to be able to diagnose plays and be where's he supposed to be 100% of the time.
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If Winters speed was showing up when I watch the games I'd probably be against Wagner. But Winters doesn't seem to have a clue about where he is supposed to be and his speed looks extremely average and run of the mill. Which is weird because he looked fast when he played for the 49ers. I get there isn't a physical bone in his body but I was expecting him to at least look like he is running at a different speed than our DEs. My guess is he looks slow because he has no idea what he is doing.

At least with Wagner I can trust that he knows where he is supposed to be and isn't afraid of a little contact. I'm sure he won't be flying running around but he won't run to the wrong gaps in run fits either and he won't avoid coverage when dropping into a zone.
 
Texas Ace said:
A 5th for Mack?!

No way I'm giving up a 5th for a 35 or so year old player on the last year of his contract who had 5.5 sacks last year and 6.0 the year before.

They MAYBE could get a 6th from me but that's it.
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I'm giving up zero. I don't need 2 Von Millers. I already am looking for the more explosive young guys to play more and the old slow guy to play less. I'm not hating on Von Miller but I don't need 2 guys like that taking up roster spots.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I'm giving up zero. I don't need 2 Von Millers. I already am looking for the more explosive young guys to play more and the old slow guy to play less. I'm not hating on Von Miller but I don't need 2 guys like that taking up roster spots.
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Thank you!

Pretty much the only way I'm trading for an other edge is if we have a season-ending injury to someone.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I'm giving up zero. I don't need 2 Von Millers. I already am looking for the more explosive young guys to play more and the old slow guy to play less. I'm not hating on Von Miller but I don't need 2 guys like that taking up roster spots.
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To be fair Mack is considerably more effective than Miller. Wished it could have been an either/or situation.
 
Rev said:
To be fair Mack is considerably more effective than Miller. Wished it could have been an either/or situation.
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Sure, if I could swap Mack for Vonn Miller without having to pay anything I may very well be willing to do that. I haven't watched that much of Mack. But the previous two seasons don't tell me that he is worth doing that for. Obviously I know he has 3 sacks this season and so maybe he is on something and is going to have a resurgent season. I honestly have no idea, I'm not watching the all 32 of Chargers games. But right now, I'd prefer to just ride what we have. If Vonn Miller snaps his ankle or something I'd revisit the topic.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I'm giving up zero. I don't need 2 Von Millers. I already am looking for the more explosive young guys to play more and the old slow guy to play less. I'm not hating on Von Miller but I don't need 2 guys like that taking up roster spots.
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Mack has 3 sacks in 4 games-- far better than fricking Von Miller, who's been worth jack and shat
 
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