2023 Draft Big Boards, Position Rankings & Mocks

Status
Not open for further replies.
9th is a bit outrageous but if health isn't a concern I don't think it's a stretch to call him a top 15 prospect. Mayer is much safer and I think more likely to be a Pro Bowler for a variety of reasons, but depending on your perspective and how much you weight pure ability as a receiver without worrying much about the blocking aspect, it's totally justifiable to have Kincaid that high in this weak of a draft.
 
Last edited:
Simpleton said:
Jeremiah Top 50 2021

He had Pitts 2nd overall, so it seems he places most of his value on TE's on their receiving ability considering Pitts is basically just an extremely tall/big WR.
Click to expand...
Kincaid is a move around TE, but like Pitts, he is not going to add much as an in-line blocker.
 
boozeman said:
Kincaid is a move around TE, but like Pitts, he is not going to add much as an in-line blocker.
Click to expand...

I get it and I do too. I mean if you're not a big time receiver at TE you're not an impact player. But on the same token, if you can't block you're not much of a mismatch either and might as well just lump a guy in with the WR's. The "weapon" idea of a TE is all based on the premise that a team doesn't know if you're running or throwing the ball based on the TE. You want to force a team to put a LBer out there to stop the run and then you beat them with your TE. Or you want them to try to put a corner or safety on the TE, where his great blocking ability allows you to run the ball easily. That's the bind you're trying to get at with a TE. So you need a TE that will dominate a corner or safety blocking them and roast a LBer if they are trying to cover them.

If you can't block then teams will just put the safety or corner on you and play you like he is a big receiver. If you wan't toast a LBer, teams will just put a LBer on you and prepare to stop any fear of the run.

Guys like Pitts and Kincaid you're basically just saying, hey, you can't cover them with a corner, safety or LBer because they are that good as a receiver. And anything they give you as a blocker is a bonus. Those guys you might as well judge just like you do the other receivers in the draft.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I get it and I do too. I mean if you're not a big time receiver at TE you're not an impact player. But on the same token, if you can't block you're not much of a mismatch either and might as well just lump a guy in with the WR's. The "weapon" idea of a TE is all based on the premise that a team doesn't know if you're running or throwing the ball based on the TE. You want to force a team to put a LBer out there to stop the run and then you beat them with your TE. Or you want them to try to put a corner or safety on the TE, where his great blocking ability allows you to run the ball easily. That's the bind you're trying to get at with a TE. So you need a TE that will dominate a corner or safety blocking them and roast a LBer if they are trying to cover them.

If you can't block then teams will just put the safety or corner on you and play you like he is a big receiver. If you wan't toast a LBer, teams will just put a LBer on you and prepare to stop any fear of the run.

Guys like Pitts and Kincaid you're basically just saying, hey, you can't cover them with a corner, safety or LBer because they are that good as a receiver. And anything they give you as a blocker is a bonus. Those guys you might as well judge just like you do the other receivers in the draft.
Click to expand...

Theoretically you're right in terms of putting defenses into a formational/personnel bind, although Kincaid and even Pitts can still block well enough to the point that you aren't certain that it's a pass if they're on the field.

They just aren't very good at it, although by year 2-3 I don't think Kincaid will be significantly worse of a blocker than someone like Schultz.
 
Simpleton said:
Theoretically you're right in terms of putting defenses into a formational/personnel bind, although Kincaid and even Pitts can still block well enough to the point that you aren't certain that it's a pass if they're on the field.

They just aren't very good at it, although by year 2-3 I don't think Kincaid will be significantly worse of a blocker than someone like Schultz.
Click to expand...

Would you feel the need to put a LBer on the field because of their run blocking ability? I wouldn't. Although maybe they can get there. You can run out of a 4 WR formation too. So it's not necessarily telegraphing anything. It's just saying as a defense, I'm not worried about those guys blocking my safety or corner so I'm not putting an extra LBer on the field to handle the run.

This isn't that unusual. It's why you see defenses like the Cowboys almost never use 3 LBers. They instead trust a safety like Kearse or Wilson to handle those duties and also be good enough to handle the run. This has just sort of been the evolution of the NFL. Of course a TE like Kittle can still block his ass off which is why it causes so many problems.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
Would you feel the need to put a LBer on the field because of their run blocking ability? I wouldn't. Although maybe they can get there. You can run out of a 4 WR formation too. So it's not necessarily telegraphing anything. It's just saying as a defense, I'm not worried about those guys blocking my safety or corner so I'm not putting an extra LBer on the field to handle the run.

This isn't that unusual. It's why you see defenses like the Cowboys almost never use 3 LBers. They instead trust a safety like Kearse or Wilson to handle those duties and also be good enough to handle the run. This has just sort of been the evolution of the NFL. Of course a TE like Kittle can still block his ass off which is why it causes so many problems.
Click to expand...

Not really but just because a TE is an average or worse blocker doesn't mean they're automatically inferior to a WR. A guy like Pitts in particular brings a physical presence vertically in jump ball, 50/50 situations that most WR's dont bring, while guys like Kincaid bring the ability to carve out space over the middle and break tackles after the catch.

But yea, the theory behind what you're saying is true as far as mismatches with personnel.
 
Simpleton said:
A guy like Pitts in particular brings a physical presence vertically in jump ball, 50/50 situations that most WR's dont bring, while guys like Kincaid bring the ability to carve out space over the middle and break tackles after the catch.
Click to expand...

Yeah and that's also why I said you can just kind of judge them the same way you would a wide receiver. Pitts for example creates a mismatch for a corner simply because he is way bigger than most corners or safeties. He can out jump most of them for balls, he can outrun a lot of safeties and even some corners. That was at least the big draw for Pitts. I don't know if we have totally seen that in the NFL for him yet but he has also been straddled with a shitty QB situation.

I think you have some of the same hopes with Kincaid. He does a tremendous job with contested catches. You're hoping that he will continue to do the same against NFL corners or safeties because he is just bigger than most of them. He is also a beast with run after the catch because he is extremely hard to tackle. When compared to a WR, do I like his separation ability? Not really. I don't think he really gets a lot of it. But if you get the ball in his hands he is fun.

I think this is all part of why teams struggle to evaluate college TE's coming into the NFL. Projections and scouting of the position have not been historically great. And I think a lot of it has to do with college offenses treating them like WR's but the NFL judging their receiving skills more like a TE. But maybe there are other reasons for what I consider an inordinate amount of misevaluation with college TEs.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
Yeah and that's also why I said you can just kind of judge them the same way you would a wide receiver. Pitts for example creates a mismatch for a corner simply because he is way bigger than most corners or safeties. He can out jump most of them for balls, he can outrun a lot of safeties and even some corners. That was at least the big draw for Pitts. I don't know if we have totally seen that in the NFL for him yet but he has also been straddled with a shitty QB situation.

I think you have some of the same hopes with Kincaid. He does a tremendous job with contested catches. You're hoping that he will continue to do the same against NFL corners or safeties because he is just bigger than most of them. He is also a beast with run after the catch because he is extremely hard to tackle. When compared to a WR, do I like his separation ability? Not really. I don't think he really gets a lot of it. But if you get the ball in his hands he is fun.

I think this is all part of why teams struggle to evaluate college TE's coming into the NFL. Projections and scouting of the position have not been historically great. And I think a lot of it has to do with college offenses treating them like WR's but the NFL judging their receiving skills more like a TE. But maybe there are other reasons for what I consider an inordinate amount of misevaluation with college TEs.
Click to expand...

Another piece of this is that Kincaid will be much better blocking DB's than he would LB's and even DE's, so if teams want to simply treat him like a WR by matching up with a DB, that's a matchup I'd take in the running game. When people talk about a TE not being a great blocker at the college level it's usually against front 7 players, not necessarily DB's or even CB's.

As far as the league not evaluating TE's well, I think it's because so much of what makes guys like Kelce, Kittle and Andrews great as receivers, and Witten before them, isn't necessarily elite athleticism that you can spot after watching about 20 snaps. It's the subtle ability to be able to process coverages and the leverage of defenders, quickly find soft spots and then making themselves available. You need to have a baseline of athleticism to be able to get YAC and be a downfield threat every now and again, but the majority of what they're doing is being reliably available within about 10-12 yards of the LOS.

They're good athletes but not to the level of a guy like Evan Engram who ran in the 4.4's at the Combine or Njoku who ran in the low 4.6's but had an insane vertical/broad jump. Those guys made splash plays in college because of their rare athleticism but the TE position is so nuanced in the NFL that I'd rather have one with excellent processing/route running ability and only good athleticism, as opposed to an elite athlete who isn't very technically refined.

That's a very hard distinction to make when scouting guys, and it also brings its own risk like you see with some of the conversation around Mayer, but I think that's a big reason why you see 1st round TE's disappoint even if most of them end up being pretty solid players, while lesser graded prospects (i.e. lesser athletic prospects) end up translating better to the NFL level.
 
Simpleton said:
Another piece of this is that Kincaid will be much better blocking DB's than he would LB's and even DE's, so if teams want to simply treat him like a WR by matching up with a DB, that's a matchup I'd take in the running game. When people talk about a TE not being a great blocker at the college level it's usually against front 7 players, not necessarily DB's or even CB's.
Click to expand...

Yeah the trouble with Kincaid was he wasn't even lined up like a TE a lot of the time. He was lined up as a WR. And when he was lined up near the line of scrimmage (Not as an inline guy mind you), it was a lot of quick stuff to take advantage of his YAC ability. So I'm not really sure how much teams were really using a LBer on him or not.

I feel comfortable with Kincaid as a receiver though. I think he shows a lot of ability that you mentioned to sort of find those soft spots and he does a great job fighting for the football. His back is what scares me. Otherwise I have faith he will at least be a Schultz level receiver and frankly I think he could become a Schultz level blocker. His back makes me nervous but other than that I feel good about it. I don't see an OMG this guy is great prospect. I don't see the separation that I expect from the athlete I see after the catch. I think he could struggle with man coverage of a safety for example.

Mayer on the other hand looks big. He doesn't look all that quick or fast to me. He makes impressive circus catches for a guy his size and with what look like lumbering feet. His RAC is almost entirely built on the fact that he is big and can run dudes over. I was very surprised by his lack of size at the combine because he looks big when you watch the size he was at Notre Dame. My only assumption is he lost weight in hopes of running a better forty. I think he will go back to the size he was but that also means he probably isn't really a 4.72 forty guy or whatever he ran. Which is fine. Ferguson ran like a 4.8 forty. But his 10 yard split was good. He has more short area speed than he does long speed in my opinion. Mayer on the other hand had a worse 10 yard split than Ferguson.

I don't know, maybe Mayer is the next Witten. But I could just as easily see him being an ok or average type NFL TE. I'm just not comfortable using a first on that.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
I don't know, maybe Mayer is the next Witten. But I could just as easily see him being an ok or average type NFL TE. I'm just not comfortable using a first on that.
Click to expand...

I am equally uncomfortable drafting a move-TE that will be a sub-package player to start out.

Meyer at least brings the goods at a moderate high level in both regards. With him, if you don't think he can more than an average type NFL TE, then you can't feel that Kincaid is a solution unless you are projecting him to be some sort of unicorn.
 
boozeman said:
I am equally uncomfortable drafting a move-TE that will be a sub-package player to start out.

Meyer at least brings the goods at a moderate high level in both regards. With him, if you don't think he can more than an average type NFL TE, then you can't feel that Kincaid is a solution unless you are projecting him to be some sort of unicorn.
Click to expand...

I don't want a first round TE I'd rather draft Kraft/LaPorta in the second. I think those guys have just as good of a chance at a great career. Or hell, wait until the third round or later. I'm good with that too.
 
In watching highlights... and if you're too unsure about Kincaid's blocking... are we sure Washington wouldn't be the same or better than Mayer if he'd had the same opportunities? He made a lot of tough contested catches, too. And I think he'll be better after the catch also.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
In watching highlights... and if you're too unsure about Kincaid's blocking... are we sure Washington wouldn't be the same or better than Mayer if he'd had the same opportunities? He made a lot of tough contested catches, too. And I think he'll be better after the catch also.
Click to expand...

During the combine he made an insane one handed grab that no one in the NFL could defend. The dude has potential. Washington is a real shot in the dark with huge upside. His downside isn't bad either. I mean worst case scenario he is a red zone threat and a big time blocker. Literally like having an extra OT on the field when you run the ball.

If he never develops as a pass catcher he would be under appreciated around here but he would still be an extremely useful player.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
In watching highlights... and if you're too unsure about Kincaid's blocking... are we sure Washington wouldn't be the same or better than Mayer if he'd had the same opportunities? He made a lot of tough contested catches, too. And I think he'll be better after the catch also.
Click to expand...
Brock Bowers will be the top TE next year. If not for him there would be a lot of Washington UGA highlights to watch.

With his size and blocking he's almost like having an extra tackle on the line.

How great would it be to have him out there in the 3 TE set with Turd Ferguson and Pendershot?
 
bbgun said:
Click to expand...


I fucking do not like it. I'm ok with Avila in the first. But then Mims sort of feels like a slight reach. Trice is a reach in the third. Turner is not a good fourth round pick. Rounds 5 6 and 7 are ok.

So yeah, just feels like a draft of reaches. Feels like a mediocre to below average draft.
 
I am curious about Mims, though. We never talk about him, but imo that 40 changed a lot. He was a damn good player in college, a real baller and a fighter. I won't be surprised if he's sneaky good in the pros.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom