Extending Pickens

mcnuttz said:
The team is now worth $13billion.
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If this was a normal investment, it would have to generate $500–800 million of annual profit

But it's not normal at all
  • Self-Fulfilling Valuation Increases valuations rise over time based on revenues and scarcity. An NFL investment is all but guaranteed to grow, especially it's biggest and brightest.
  • Inflation-protected most of the team's assets: media rights, ticket prices, and stadium value/real estate, rise with inflation. The investor is protected. This is huge.
  • Scarcity and Prestige few teams come up for sale. Rare things are nearly always worth more. The prestige of owning it is worth an intangible amount as a result of this rarity and brand recognition. Elon Musk is now a trillionaire-- he might buy the Cowboys without even thinking about the money because there's only one. But it's because of that prestige that the Joneses will never sell
I know I'd probably never sell the Cowboys if I owned them, no matter how valuable the team became.
 
Chris Olave just got 4/132 (33/year), feels like a pretty good point for comparison with what a potential Pickens deal might be.

Olave's career best year was 100/1163/9, Pickens was 93/1429/9, for their careers Olave is at 291/3728/19 and Pickens is at 267/4270/21, although Olave missed about half the season in 2023 and would probably have almost exactly even numbers as Pickens if not for that, if not slightly better.

Assuming Zay Flowers comes in somewhere in the same range I think it's safe to say a Pickens extension should be somewhere around 35/year, unless he goes absolutely insane and leads the league in yards or something this year.
 
Simpleton said:
Chris Olave just got 4/132 (33/year), feels like a pretty good point for comparison with what a potential Pickens deal might be.

Olave's career best year was 100/1163/9, Pickens was 93/1429/9, for their careers Olave is at 291/3728/19 and Pickens is at 267/4270/21, although Olave missed about half the season in 2023 and would probably have almost exactly even numbers as Pickens if not for that, if not slightly better.

Assuming Zay Flowers comes in somewhere in the same range I think it's safe to say a Pickens extension should be somewhere around 35/year, unless he goes absolutely insane and leads the league in yards or something this year.
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Pickens’ 2025 was big and splashy, and he flashed elite ability and numbers. Dak was darned near the best we’ve seen him, and Pickens was IMO primarily responsible for it. Don’t know if Olave has had that yet, and if I’m Pickens’ agent, the floor is already above Olave’s deal— much as I’d love for it to be less.
 
On the other hand, does George have those numbers with whatever QB they threw out in New Orleans?

Though I'm sure you're right about Pickens' agent.
 
Zay Flowers got 4/140 (35/year), to me that's the clear price for Pickens unless he goes absolutely insane with something like 1600 yards and 12 TD's.

If he puts up another 1200-1400 yards and 8-10 TD's I think that exact deal is what it takes to get it done, so it'd just be a matter of whether or not our assholes want to pay it.
 
Zay Flowers got a good agent. Just... wow. This demand and market for WRs is nuts.

Pickens is going to land an insane number when he hits free agency.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
All numbers feel insane because the cap keeps growing by leaps.
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No doubt, but I think the numbers for Pickens will grow even more by the time we are able to begin negotiating a new deal. And you know the Cowboys are rarely on top of such negotiations these days, preferring to wait until forever.

If they wait until after the season to the cusp of the NFL free agency signing period, it's over, the deal is going to be upwards of 38-40 per and there's no reason Pickens shouldn't just wait a few weeks for the bidding war to commence.

I think Stephen and Jerry will take their 2028 3rd round compensatory pick and call it a wash.
 
Unless he goes insane this year, which I doubt if Lamb is healthy, I think roughly 36 will be the fair range. I'd franchise him and say you can either have 4/144 or find someone who will give us at least a 2nd.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
They have shown zero desire at this point to even talk about a new deal.

But if the deal is upwards of 38-40 per, why wouldn't you just franchise tag him again? The franchise tag would be 32.8 mil.
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I think they would love to do that and frankly have always been planning to do exactly that, but the reality is it would result in a holdout until week 10 and then you are praying he brings his whole self and you somehow capture lightning in a bottle for a Superbowl run, but more than likely you just wasted what might have been a great season, especially if you have racked up 5-6 losses by then (like 2025).

Another wasted season helps neither the Cowboys nor Pickens.
 
ravidubey said:
I think they would love to do that and frankly have always been planning to do exactly that, but the reality is it would result in a holdout until week 10 and then you are praying he brings his whole self and you somehow capture lightning in a bottle for a Superbowl run, but more than likely you just wasted what might have been a great season, especially if you have racked up 5-6 losses by then (like 2025).

Another wasted season helps neither the Cowboys nor Pickens.
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You franchise him, he threatens to hold out, you trade him. We have seen this before. It's not some sort of a new playbook.

Or you franchise him, and you use it as a negotiation tactic because he can either sign an extension or wait basically a year to make money again. Give you leverage to get a deal closer to the franchise tag number as opposed to 40 mil. Anyway, no point in talking about this now. It's something that we shouldn't waste our time talking about until the end of the season. Nothing will happen until then.
 
Cowboysrock55 said:
You franchise him, he threatens to hold out, you trade him. We have seen this before. It's not some sort of a new playbook.

Or you franchise him, and you use it as a negotiation tactic because he can either sign an extension or wait basically a year to make money again. Give you leverage to get a deal closer to the franchise tag number as opposed to 40 mil. Anyway, no point in talking about this now. It's something that we shouldn't waste our time talking about until the end of the season. Nothing will happen until then.
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It’s the same speculation from earlier in this thread. Can’t see the Joneses actually paying Pickens longterm
 
One thing that has to be mentioned as far as Pickens is that if Dak wants him here, he could easily sign an extension at any time that would allow them to push out all sorts of money into the future and easily be able to re-sign Pickens around 36-37/year.

He's already made damn near $500 million off NFL contracts alone, not including endorsements, so why not sign a 5/200 extension, which would be well below market value while still being paid a ridiculous amount? It'd give the team effectively 7 years to push money out into the future for cap space now with the aim of being aggressive over the next 2-4 years (Dak's age 34-37 seasons).

Dak only has maybe one more significant contract left in his career, so why not take less, keep your weapons, and try to maximize the few years you have left for a Super Bowl that would pay dividends for the rest of his life?

Assuming he isn't a massive, selfish asshole of course.
 
Dak knows the Cowboys have kept more in their pockets, made more on the side, and increased in value than any other team these last ten years.

I think he's a smart lad with an informed agent, and so he'd seriously question their unwillingness to spend the full cap before he offered up a dime. That's only wise.

Brady gave up money because he trusted the Krafts and what their purported true bottom line was.

I don't think anyone knows the Cowboys real bottom line because they're not sharing their five-year cap projection with just anyone, but it's clear if they really wanted to sign Pickens and Williams both, they could do so by fronting future money-- worst case.

If I'm Dak, I need to see how the Cowboys' cap is full to bursting the next five years before I even consider giving up a dime less than my market value.

Anyways, the Cowboys are not about to share that info, because players (Dak included) would use it as leverage to inflate their own deals. That's only wise on their part.

What is greedy is that they don't spend everything they could-- and the documented sources have shown the shortfall the last several years has been by A LOT.
 
Before McCarthy, the Boston Globe analysis found that over 2011–2019, Dallas ranked dead last in NFL cash spending, averaging only $143.2M/year.

Dallas dramatically changed once McCarthy arrived, looking at cumulative cap 2020-2024:

2020–24 CASH ABOVE/(BELOW) 100% CAP

Cleveland +$292.9M
San Francisco +249.1
Philadelphia +217.0
New Orleans +192.4
Miami +190.3
Dallas +171.1
Buffalo +167.8
Houston +140.1
Tampa Bay +133.6
Baltimore +119.7
Jacksonville +114.4
NY Jets +109.0
Denver +99.4
Detroit +96.2
Green Bay +95.1
LA Chargers +90.9
Indianapolis +86.6
Arizona +82.3
Cincinnati +75.9
Kansas City +73.1
Minnesota +72.3
Tennessee +67.4
Carolina +63.1
Washington +60.2
NY Giants +59.9
Seattle +39.6
Las Vegas +35.3
LA Rams +33.1
Chicago +23.2
Atlanta +23.1
New England +9.6
Pittsburgh -17.1

So Dallas has been spending well above average the last 5-6 years, but the difference between the top three and Dallas is still significant.

Conclusion: Dak shouldn't give a dime, because Dallas has a lot more it could spend before claiming itself cap strapped.
 
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