Extending Pickens

mcnuttz said:
The team is now worth $13billion.
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If this was a normal investment, it would have to generate $500–800 million of annual profit

But it's not normal at all
  • Self-Fulfilling Valuation Increases valuations rise over time based on revenues and scarcity. An NFL investment is all but guaranteed to grow, especially it's biggest and brightest.
  • Inflation-protected most of the team's assets: media rights, ticket prices, and stadium value/real estate, rise with inflation. The investor is protected. This is huge.
  • Scarcity and Prestige few teams come up for sale. Rare things are nearly always worth more. The prestige of owning it is worth an intangible amount as a result of this rarity and brand recognition. Elon Musk is now a trillionaire-- he might buy the Cowboys without even thinking about the money because there's only one. But it's because of that prestige that the Joneses will never sell
I know I'd probably never sell the Cowboys if I owned them, no matter how valuable the team became.
 
Chris Olave just got 4/132 (33/year), feels like a pretty good point for comparison with what a potential Pickens deal might be.

Olave's career best year was 100/1163/9, Pickens was 93/1429/9, for their careers Olave is at 291/3728/19 and Pickens is at 267/4270/21, although Olave missed about half the season in 2023 and would probably have almost exactly even numbers as Pickens if not for that, if not slightly better.

Assuming Zay Flowers comes in somewhere in the same range I think it's safe to say a Pickens extension should be somewhere around 35/year, unless he goes absolutely insane and leads the league in yards or something this year.
 
Simpleton said:
Chris Olave just got 4/132 (33/year), feels like a pretty good point for comparison with what a potential Pickens deal might be.

Olave's career best year was 100/1163/9, Pickens was 93/1429/9, for their careers Olave is at 291/3728/19 and Pickens is at 267/4270/21, although Olave missed about half the season in 2023 and would probably have almost exactly even numbers as Pickens if not for that, if not slightly better.

Assuming Zay Flowers comes in somewhere in the same range I think it's safe to say a Pickens extension should be somewhere around 35/year, unless he goes absolutely insane and leads the league in yards or something this year.
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Pickens’ 2025 was big and splashy, and he flashed elite ability and numbers. Dak was darned near the best we’ve seen him, and Pickens was IMO primarily responsible for it. Don’t know if Olave has had that yet, and if I’m Pickens’ agent, the floor is already above Olave’s deal— much as I’d love for it to be less.
 
On the other hand, does George have those numbers with whatever QB they threw out in New Orleans?

Though I'm sure you're right about Pickens' agent.
 
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