President Trump Thread...

[Chocolate Lab]

 

[Cotton]

Good lord.

 

[Smitty]

It seemed that way in 2016 too. Don't believe the polls.

The polls are worse now.

 

[NoDak]

The polls are worse now.

Of course. I have little doubt poll numbers can't be manipulated. And they are more desperate to win this election than ever. Make it look like the election is in the bag, in the hopes that conservative voters think there's no chance and just stay home instead of voting. But that could also work the other way.

In short... I don't believe poll numbers. Whether they are favorable or not. Polling a small sampling of the population and extrapolating that to the entire nation means very little to me.

 

[yimyammer]

Of course. I have little doubt poll numbers can't be manipulated. And they are more desperate to win this election than ever. Make it look like the election is in the bag, in the hopes that conservative voters think there's no chance and just stay home instead of voting. But that could also work the other way.

In short... I don't believe poll numbers. Whether they are favorable or not. Polling a small sampling of the population and extrapolating that to the entire nation means very little to me.

 

[jsmith6919]

You have to consider most of these polls are of around 1000-3000 people, that's such a small sample size it's unreal to me how they think this means anything

 

[yimyammer]

I haven't ever watched one of Trumps rallies, they're pretty damn funny, the man can riff. Amazing he was in a hospital a few days ago for Covid

 

[yimyammer]

 

[Sheik]

I don’t know about the site or the author, I just found it interesting.

 

[boozeman]

Explain? I don't even know much about the Q stuff.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I don’t know about the site or the author, I just found it interesting.

If there is ever a year that the polls will be wildly off this would be the year. Just how the country is right now. Everyone is afraid to speak the truth.

 

[L.T. Fan]

If there is ever a year that the polls will be wildly off this would be the year. Just how the country is right now. Everyone is afraid to speak the truth.

I am puzzled that the DOJ hasn’t issued some indictments on some of the parties involved in the Russian Collusion contrived story and the Benghazi matter. I know there has been talk that Linsey Graham has acted on his own in some matters and it has brought suspicions that he is keeping a lid on things until after the election. In addition there are some statements going around that Barr is also holding back until after the election to issue any indictments. Some have speculated that these are aimed at selling out the Republican Party in the general election in order to keep the House in a Democratic majority and get the Senate realigned. This way it would give the Democrats the power the next term to do what they wanted and just steam roll the process past Trump. It would allow Trump to win but the Democrats would also win. That’s just scuttlebutt coming off the street in DC.

 

[yimyammer]

I tried to go down that black hole and it sounded crazy to me, the video I watched was of 3 guys, one of which is the supposed source who looked like a skinny Santa Claus wearing a weird Ebenezer Scrooge looking pajama outfit.

I gave up because as far I know, it was 3 random dudes riffing from their basement

 

[Genghis Khan]

If there is ever a year that the polls will be wildly off this would be the year. Just how the country is right now. Everyone is afraid to speak the truth.

Biden may very well win, but Biden winning by double digits just doesn't comport with what I've anecdotally seen in my area and in rallies and so forth. It just doesn't seem like there's a lopsided amount of support for Biden.

 

[Cotton]

Biden may very well win, but Biden winning by double digits just doesn't comport with what I've anecdotally seen in my area and in rallies and so forth. It just doesn't seem like there's a lopsided amount of support for Biden.

If Trump can win PA, I think he has the election in the bag. You live in PA. Are you seeing more Trump or Biden signs in yards?

 

[Cotton]

This and the town hall Biden hosted on the 5th will replace the missed debate.

EDIT: Just noticed this will be moderated by Savannah Guthrie. My god, I hate that bitch.

 

[Genghis Khan]

If Trump can win PA, I think he has the election in the bag. You live in PA. Are you seeing more Trump or Biden signs in yards?

It's very mixed. I live in a traditionally leaning Republican county but my town itself is overwhelmingly Biden signs it seems. But when I go outside my town there are definitely stretches where it's overwhelmingly Trump. Overall it's probably close to 50/50 from what I've seen.

The interesting thing I find is that when I see Trump signs, it's pretty much just Trump and occasionally local ticket politicians. When I see Biden signs it's usually coupled with Black Lives Matter signs, or Hate Has No Home Here, etc. Very few people seem to be enthusiastically just for Biden, he's just along for the ride.

 

[Cotton]

It's very mixed. I live in a traditionally leaning Republican county but my town itself is overwhelmingly Biden signs it seems. But when I go outside my town there are definitely stretches where it's overwhelmingly Trump. Overall it's probably close to 50/50 from what I've seen.

The interesting thing I find is that when I see Trump signs, it's pretty much just Trump and occasionally local ticket politicians. When I see Biden signs it's usually coupled with Black Lives Matter signs, or Hate Has No Home Here, etc. Very few people seem to be enthusiastically just for Biden, he's just along for the ride.

I think Trump's base is motivated. Couple that with people like me that didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but will this year, and I think Trump wins.

 

[yimyammer]

Biden may very well win, but Biden winning by double digits just doesn't comport with what I've anecdotally seen in my area and in rallies and so forth. It just doesn't seem like there's a lopsided amount of support for Biden.

The article below might explain whats happening and I tend to agree with the author. I know personally I've gone from being somewant apathetic and hopeless (still am to a large degree) to thinking of my vote as a massive rebuke against the Democratic Party and AOC, The Squad, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc and the way so many democratic leaders in places like Portland, Seattle et al refuse to allow police to reign in the violence, vandalism, shitting in the streets, allowing homeless to squat any where, etc, etc

Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact

Trump supporters are far more likely to hide their preference in polls. This was the finding of recent research that investigated this increasingly prevalent assumption. If true in even small percentages, an imposing Trump surge could be hiding within the electorate.

There is growing suspicion that Trump supporters are not divulging their preferences to pollsters. This would hardly be surprising considering the left’s current cancel culture climate.

Five years of vituperation has increasingly turned violent. There are daily occurrences for those willing to objectively look at the riots occurring in big cities across America. Even high-profile people are not immune, as Republican Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s narrow escape outside the White House following President Trump’s acceptance speech demonstrated. It is logical that ordinary Americans could feel vulnerable.

To test this theory, CloudResearchrecently sampled American voters in search of what they term “shy voters.” Their results show that Trump supporters were “significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters.” Almost 12 percent of Republicans and nearly 11 percent of Independents, were also almost twice as likely to be reticent than Democrats (about 5 percent).

These seemingly small percentages could have major November implications. For illustration of roughly how big, look at 2016 exit polling.

In the last presidential election, 36 percent of voters were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans and 31 percent were Independents. Applying CloudResearch’s “shy voter” percentages to each group yields 9 percent of the electorate as not giving their true candidate preferences.

However, those roughly one in 11 reticent voters are not, as CloudResearch discovered, evenly distributed between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Instead, they run about 2-to-1 in Trump’s favor. On the net, they come out to around a 3 percent hidden “Trump bump.”

Again, that may appear small, but not in what is an increasingly tight race. According to Real Clear Politics’s average of polling results, Biden’s national lead is now just 6 percent — down from 9 percent on July 1. Currently, Biden’s lead in the all-important top battleground states is far narrower — just about 3 percent, compared to just over 5 percent on Aug. 5.

While we do not know where these reticent supporters were being recorded (for example, listed as supporting a third-party candidate or as unsure of who they support), if they were listed as Biden supporters, their impact as hidden Trump supporters would be twice as large. This is because of the zero-sum nature of each vote going to Trump also would be deducted from Biden. So, the range of Trump’s benefit relative to Biden from hidden supporters could be anywhere from 3 percent to 5 percent.

Either way, in a tight race such an impact would be huge. Remember that in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2 percent. However, Trump still won the electoral vote and the presidency. A hidden 3 percent of Trump supporters would erase Clinton’s 2016 margin and Biden’s current lead in Real Clear Politics’s battleground average. A hidden 5 percent of Trump supporters would push Real Clear Politics’s national average into a dead-heat.

The left have brought the hidden Trump supporter problem on themselves. By “villainizing” Trump supporters, they have made a dangerously high percentage invisible. Despite intending to avoid Clinton’s 2016 mistake of misappropriating her resources, they may be recreating it unintentionally for Biden’s campaign.

Democrats could find themselves, again, failing to target the voters they need to shore up. This time it could be more than just blue states they miss, but blue constituencies. The key is that Biden’s campaign cannot know where hidden Trump supporters are.

To top it off, the hidden Trump supporter problem could grow for the left. The left’s violent outbursts are getting worse, or at least less ignorable. The left clearly seems intent in going in that direction or unable to stop it. As incidents get worse, more coverage, or both, they could drive even more Trump supporters underground.

A hidden Trump supporter phenomenon in 2020 could be no less dramatic than the president’s 2016 upset. It could also have an even bigger political impact if those hidden voters also vote Republican down-ballot — something they are much more likely to do now that Trump is fully associated with the party, and not just its surprise nominee. Ironically, while Trump may be the man they most want to beat, the left may find in November that instead they have beaten themselves.

J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department. He served as a congressional staffer from 1987 through 2000

 

[Genghis Khan]

The article below might explain whats happening and I tend to agree with the author. I know personally I've gone from being somewant apathetic and hopeless (still am to a large degree) to thinking of my vote as a massive rebuke against the Democratic Party and AOC, The Squad, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc and the way so many democratic leaders in places like Portland, Seattle et al refuse to allow police to reign in the violence, vandalism, shitting in the streets, allowing homeless to squat any where, etc, etc

Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact

Agreed. I think there's a lot of truth here.