The opportunity value is so unpredictable.
Had that trade actually gone through last year we’d have lost CeeDee Lamb.
But it could have been a Taco Charlton or David LaFleur in another draft.
Very hard to tell that far before the college season unfolds. If it unfolds.
It's impossible to predict, particularly because this specific scenario where Lamb fell to us at 17 is very rare. If the opportunity cost was a guy like Chaisson I'd definitely prefer Adams, but where would we actually be picking if we had Adams for the last half of the year? 20? 22? 24?
We'd have likely been looking at guys like Ruiz and Kenneth Murray at that point and Adams would be a no-brainer choice over them. And would we have made the playoffs with Adams?
That might have bought dumbass Garrett another year or two which would be quite literally the worst case scenario.
All I know is I wouldn't trade Lamb for Adams straight up so I'm thrilled we didn't do the deal, although I'd have preferred Adams over almost everybody else who went in that range (Jeudy, Terrell, Wirfs, Ruggs, Becton, Wills, Henderson, perhaps even Kinlaw). You'd have to go all the way to 8 with Simmons, or maybe even 7 with Brown to get to a prospect I'd 100% take over Adams, we just got extremely lucky that a legitimate blue chip player with no red flags fell for no good reason.
That's a long way of saying that if you're playing the odds I think Adams would be the better choice in the majority of scenarios if you're just talking Adams straight up for a 1. I think the fact that we are rid of Garrett only strengthens that argument, because ultimately if we do make the trade I'd expect us to be picking no higher than 24 or so.
