By Jon Machota 2h ago
From the moment we publish this article, the Cowboys have exactly one month (and seven hours) to finalize a contract extension with Dak Prescott.
If a long-term deal isn’t completed by the NFL’s franchise tag deadline at 4 p.m. ET on July 15, Prescott will have to play the 2020 season under a one-year contract that will pay him $31.4 million. His contract will then not be eligible for an extension until after Dallas’ final regular-season game on Jan. 3, 2021.
Whether or not the two sides will come to an agreement by then continues to be one of the league’s top offseason topics of discussion. Another potential obstacle was thrown into the equation when Forbes released a list last month ranking how much NFL teams made in 2018. The Cowboys easily topped the list with total revenue of $950 million, $350 million more than the second-place New England Patriots.
The list also included stadium revenue, focusing on what teams could potentially lose if they have limited or no fans at games during the 2020 season because of the coronavirus pandemic. The Cowboys were again first at $621 million, $306 million ahead of the second-place Patriots. Considering that Dallas is making more money than any other NFL team off stadium revenue alone, it raises the question: Could the possibility of limited amounts or no fans at games impact the Cowboys’ thinking on giving Prescott a long-term deal during these uncertain times?
NFL contract and salary cap expert Joel Corry doesn’t believe it will. The former sports agent and current CBS Sports columnist projects that the two sides will agree on a new contract before next month’s deadline. One of the key holdups in negotiations has been that the Cowboys prefer a five-year deal. Prescott’s representatives are looking for a four-year contract, giving the 26-year-old a quicker opportunity to get back on the open market as franchise quarterback contracts steadily increase.
“I think Dallas will cave and give him the four (years),” Corry said. “Here’s how you know. As much as some people will say (the Cowboys) don’t really want Dak, if there was ever a year for you to roll the dice on a quarterback, it was this year because you had several quarterbacks available in free agency. If Dallas was lukewarm on Dak they could have stuck a transition tag on him where they had the right to match, let the market dictate what that deal would have been and then gone yay or nay.
“They didn’t even put the non-exclusive franchise tag on him where they would have gotten two first-round picks for an offer sheet. They obviously like him enough to put the exclusive franchise tag on him to make sure it’s a closed market. I think the deal gets done.”
Corry projects the contract will be one that briefly makes Prescott the highest-paid player in the league in terms of average salary per year. Derek Carr became the NFL’s highest-paid player in June of 2017 when he signed a five-year deal with the Raiders worth $125 million. Matthew Stafford then took over the top spot two months later on a five-year, $135 million extension with the Lions. Jimmy Garoppolo passed Stafford six months after that, inking a five-year, $137.5 million contract with the 49ers.
Since then, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson have all signed deals that average more money per year than Garoppolo. Wilson tops the current group at $35 million per season after signing a four-year, $140 million extension with the Seahawks in April 2019.
If Prescott overtakes Wilson for the top spot, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes are expected to be next in line to surpass him.
The area where having limited or no fans in the stands could impact the Cowboys is in terms of next year’s salary cap. The number has increased every year over the last decade, going from $120 million in 2011 to $198.2 million in 2020. Could that number actually go down in 2021?
“I don’t think it’s going to change (Prescott’s) negotiation, but I think it’s going to change not only how the Cowboys but every team composes their roster this year because if we don’t have any fans, the cap could potentially drop significantly,” Corry said. “I don’t expect that to happen. I expect it to be like in 2012 when the NFLPA and the NFL found ways to keep the cap from dropping. What they did that year was they delayed the payment of performance-related pay for two or three years. That may be one of the options, or knowing that you’re going to have new TV deals and revenue is going to increase — and a 17th game and added playoff games mean more money. They may borrow against the future to have the cap be flat, if push comes to shove.”
If it does have a negative effect on the salary cap, the Cowboys could look to save money by restructuring some of their top contracts, like the ones belonging to DeMarcus Lawrence, Zack Martin or Prescott, if a new deal is reached. The Cowboys could also ask players to take pay cuts or release key contributors. As Corry points out, Amari Cooper’s recently signed five-year, $100 million deal has a potential out at the end of the 2021 season. Ezekiel Elliott’s six-year, $90 million deal has a potential out after the 2022 season. Jaylon Smith has one after 2021.
Of course, drafting well is the most cost-efficient method of them all, giving the team immediate contributors when salaries are at a much more affordable price.
Former Green Bay Packers vice president and former player agent Andrew Brandt believes NFL teams are gaining knowledge from what Major League Baseball has been going through, factoring in their potential loss of revenue.
“I would think like baseball, they’re going to try to get ahead of it and say to the (players’) union, you don’t want to go into 2021 with a lower cap than 2020, so let’s address it now and let’s try to forecast loss of revenues,” said Brandt, executive vice president at VaynerSports and columnist for The MMQB. “The best projection I can give for loss of gameday revenue without fans is not the 40 percent that baseball has, but I would guess 20 percent because football revenues are so much more tied into media. But that’s from ticket sales, that’s from loss of sponsor activation, that’s from merchandise, parking, concessions, etc. On a global scale, if NFL revenues are $15 billion, and maybe they’re higher now, losing 20 percent would be losing $3 billion.
“Now, as you drill down to the teams, it’s going to be different. But certainly, the Cowboys have been one of the most aggressive teams in local marketing and local sponsorships, which means they would have more to lose in revenue from gameday than most other teams. I don’t know a number on that, but because of their admirable aggression in sponsorships and marketing, that would hurt them more in this situation.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott recently raised the attendance restrictions for pro and college sporting events to 50 percent stadium capacity. That number could increase by the time the NFL season is scheduled to begin in September. However, other states might not allow any fans. These circumstances could lead to the Cowboys losing out on their normal projected revenue, but still bringing in much more than other teams.
There’s also a significant social justice movement taking place that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has yet to publicly comment on. Jones has been adamant in the past that he wants all Cowboys players standing for the national anthem. That’s unlikely to happen with the recent events in the country involving race and police brutality. Peaceful protests are expected to be even more prevalent during the upcoming NFL season.
Will Jones’ stance change, potentially offending sponsors and fans? Or will he stick to his original edict, likely offending players and fans? Whatever the decision, it will impact the Cowboys’ brand.
No current NFL owner has done more to grow their team’s brand. Jones now has to find a way to continue doing that during maybe his most difficult time as owner, all while wearing his general manager hat and potentially making his franchise quarterback the highest-paid player in league history.
