I remember someone (TN Cowboy?) coming here near the beginning of the Tea Party and claiming that, boy, they had been to a few rallies, and TEH REVOLUTION was at hand. As if Meemaw and Papaw were going to be out in droves, firebombing DNC HQs. Then Obama won in 2012.
I don't think the hardcore lefties even have THOSE kinds of numbers. And I don't think Jane Box Wine is going to care enough in a couple of years.
GOP rallied like crazy in 2010, and Obama's approval rating was comparatively much higher than Trump's ever was or will be.
Obama won again when he was back on the ballot, but let'a be honest he's a much much more charismatic and likable candidate than Trump will ever be. Most presidents face a backlash in the midterm, Trump is easily the most divisive president we've had since the Civil War, his party just got exposed as full of shit when it came to the Obamacare repeal they've been promising since 2010.
You can never predict exactly how these things go, but in 92 and 06, 10, and 14 when sitting presidents have had higher popularity it's ended in a big swing towards the opposing party
The fact that Pompeo's district in Kansas lost about 20 points between 2016 and 2017 shows that this isn't just water cooler talk, it's measurable. Everyone (who listens to right wing radio) thought people showing up in red districts were "paid protestors" turns out they're real and they're voting.
It's not just typical liberals that are turning out it's people afraid of losing their health insurance, people who bought Trump's sales pitch and realize it's bunk, or people who stayed home in 2016 because they hated both candidates, and some people who didn't feel the need to engage in the process until we elected this piece of shit..