China send 150k troops to North Korean border....

[townsend]

A centrist would disagree with extreme Democrats and extreme Republicans alike.

I agree. Although Republicans lean a lot further right than democrats lean left. There's no leftist equivalent of Steve Bannon that would have been in Bernie's entourage, and he's too left for the regular democrat spectrum.

Unlike the Republicans the biggest wackos on the left have to defect to their own party, because, unlike Republicans, democrats won't vote for some moron that says vaccines cause autism. Jill Stein is the left's Donald Trump, and because democrats are much more centrist than Republicans, she is left on the outside with the leftist equivalent to breitbart.

 

[Smitty]

I agree. Although Republicans lean a lot further right than democrats lean left. There's no leftist equivalent of Steve Bannon that would have been in Bernie's entourage, and he's too left for the regular democrat spectrum.

Come on.

Just saying this makes you full of it.

 

[Cotton]

Uhhhh.....

 

[NoDak]

I agree. Although Republicans lean a lot further right than democrats lean left. There's no leftist equivalent of Steve Bannon that would have been in Bernie's entourage, and he's too left for the regular democrat spectrum.

Unlike the Republicans the biggest wackos on the left have to defect to their own party, because, unlike Republicans, democrats won't vote for some moron that says vaccines cause autism. Jill Stein is the left's Donald Trump, and because democrats are much more centrist than Republicans, she is left on the outside with the leftist equivalent to breitbart.

That's awesome.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Come on.

Just saying this makes you full of it.

It's because no matter what he feels like he needs to somehow prop Democrats over Republicans. Both parties could be complete assholes on a topic and Townsend will still say, but the Republicans are doing it MORE!

 

[townsend]

Come on.

Just saying this makes you full of it.

You can trace the wide departure of the Republicans from moderate controlled to fringe controlled in real time. The fact that Trump is the head of the party, seals it. He did fucking interviews with Alex Jones for Christ's sake. He still has Steve Bannon as his chief strategist. He, the president of the United States, Tweets Fox and Friends while he watches the show.

The inmates are running the asylum in the GOP.

 

[Cotton]

You can trace the wide departure of the Republicans from moderate controlled to fringe controlled in real time. The fact that Trump is the head of the party, seals it. He did fucking interviews with Alex Jones for Christ's sake. He still has Steve Bannon as his chief strategist. He, the president of the United States, Tweets Fox and Friends while he watches the show.

The inmates are running the asylum in the GOP.

And winning.

 

[townsend]

And winning.

At the moment, but Republicans are very nervous about a tea party style backlash in the midterm from the left. They barely managed to win a special election that went to Trump by 24 points in 2016. Ossoff is threatening to take the special election in another strong Republican district in Georgia. Democrat voter engagement is off the charts right now, Trump might be the kick in the britches the left needed. Unfortunately it means dems will stray further away from the middle.

 

[L.T. Fan]

At the moment, but Republicans are very nervous about a tea party style backlash in the midterm from the left. They barely managed to win a special election that went to Trump by 24 points in 2016. Ossoff is threatening to take the special election in another strong Republican district in Georgia. Democrat voter engagement is off the charts right now, Trump might be the kick in the britches the left needed. Unfortunately it means dems will stray further away from the middle.

And how would you know what the Republicans are worried about? Why don't you just say this is what I think? You make statements like you just left the meetings with them.

 

[Kbrown]

At the moment, but Republicans are very nervous about a tea party style backlash in the midterm from the left. They barely managed to win a special election that went to Trump by 24 points in 2016. Ossoff is threatening to take the special election in another strong Republican district in Georgia. Democrat voter engagement is off the charts right now, Trump might be the kick in the britches the left needed. Unfortunately it means dems will stray further away from the middle.

I remember someone (TN Cowboy?) coming here near the beginning of the Tea Party and claiming that, boy, they had been to a few rallies, and TEH REVOLUTION was at hand. As if Meemaw and Papaw were going to be out in droves, firebombing DNC HQs. Then Obama won in 2012.

I don't think the hardcore lefties even have THOSE kinds of numbers. And I don't think Jane Box Wine is going to care enough in a couple of years.

 

[townsend]

I remember someone (TN Cowboy?) coming here near the beginning of the Tea Party and claiming that, boy, they had been to a few rallies, and TEH REVOLUTION was at hand. As if Meemaw and Papaw were going to be out in droves, firebombing DNC HQs. Then Obama won in 2012.

I don't think the hardcore lefties even have THOSE kinds of numbers. And I don't think Jane Box Wine is going to care enough in a couple of years.

GOP rallied like crazy in 2010, and Obama's approval rating was comparatively much higher than Trump's ever was or will be.

Obama won again when he was back on the ballot, but let'a be honest he's a much much more charismatic and likable candidate than Trump will ever be. Most presidents face a backlash in the midterm, Trump is easily the most divisive president we've had since the Civil War, his party just got exposed as full of shit when it came to the Obamacare repeal they've been promising since 2010.

You can never predict exactly how these things go, but in 92 and 06, 10, and 14 when sitting presidents have had higher popularity it's ended in a big swing towards the opposing party

The fact that Pompeo's district in Kansas lost about 20 points between 2016 and 2017 shows that this isn't just water cooler talk, it's measurable. Everyone (who listens to right wing radio) thought people showing up in red districts were "paid protestors" turns out they're real and they're voting.

It's not just typical liberals that are turning out it's people afraid of losing their health insurance, people who bought Trump's sales pitch and realize it's bunk, or people who stayed home in 2016 because they hated both candidates, and some people who didn't feel the need to engage in the process until we elected this piece of shit..

 

[Kbrown]

Yes, the Dems will get a standard to slightly higher than average midterm swing, and the world will keep on spinning.

 

[townsend]

Yes, the Dems will get a standard to slightly higher than average midterm swing, and the world will keep on spinning.

Yeah, but he're's the thing. The next two elections, which probably arent going to go well for Republicans will end up affecting how the voting districts are drawn through 2030. So that means, that Dems will have a baked in advantage for the first time in decades, as the aging Republican constituency is lost to attrition.

 

[L.T. Fan]

Yeah, but he're's the thing. The next two elections, which probably arent going to go well for Republicans will end up affecting how the voting districts are drawn through 2030. So that means, that Dems will have a baked in advantage for the first time in decades, as the aging Republican constituency is lost to attrition.

Yep. You called the last one so accurately.

 

[townsend]

Yep. You called the last one so accurately.

I underestimated the dislike of Hillary. But not the dislike of Trump. Now Hillary's been removed from the equation. There are some big brains out there saying that this Kansas election shows a powerful backlash brewing. You just have to know the rules of the game to see that if the midterm referendum follows a similar political shift, then it spells long term catastrophe for Republicans.

 

[L.T. Fan]

I underestimated the dislike of Hillary. But not the dislike of Trump. Now Hillary's been removed from the equation. There are some big brains out there saying that this Kansas election shows a powerful backlash brewing. You just have to know the rules of the game to see that if the midterm referendum follows a similar political shift, then it spells long term catastrophe for Republicans.

You are too prejudicial about Trump to be rational about him. I support him because he is the President and I want him to succeed but I also yell at him on the news because he just wont shut up at times. You have him in inevitable failure mode but I don't think he is any worse off than a lot of Presidents before him at this point. The main difference is everyone is so obsessed about him all the time all they want to do is dissect his every move. No one in history in public service has ever had this kind of attention. It's past the point of absurdity.

 

[townsend]

You are too prejudicial about Trump to be rational about him. I support him because he is the President and I want him to succeed but I also yell at him on the news because he just wont shut up at times. You have him in inevitable failure mode but I don't think he is any worse off than a lot of Presidents before him at this point. The main difference is everyone is so obsessed about him all the time all they want to do is dissect his every move. No one in history in public service has ever had this kind of attention. It's past the point of absurdity.

Except by any measurable metric he's doing worse than any modern day president. Historically low approval ratings, an NSA forced to resign weeks into the job, a criminal investigation by the FBI, failed healthcare bill, lies upon lies upon lies upon lies, absurd number of golf weekends at taxpayer expense, unstaffed administration. All of this inside what should be the honeymoon period.

Any unbiased opinion would see this guy doesn't have any upside whatsoever.

 

[townsend]

Let's also be clear, we are closer to the verge of nuclear war than we've been in decades, all within the first 100 days of this doofus being sworn in.

 

[Kbrown]

Yeah, but he're's the thing. The next two elections, which probably arent going to go well for Republicans will end up affecting how the voting districts are drawn through 2030. So that means, that Dems will have a baked in advantage for the first time in decades, as the aging Republican constituency is lost to attrition.

Except the "changing demographics" truism that the Democrats are relying on isnt supported by the data.
http://theconversation.com/the-democratic-party-is-facing-a-demographic-crisis-72948

 

[townsend]

Except the "changing demographics" truism that the Democrats are relying on isnt supported by the data.
http://theconversation.com/the-democratic-party-is-facing-a-demographic-crisis-72948

I dig the data but I think that the conclusion they drew was faulty. It sounds like they're saying Trump picking up a few extra votes than Romney is a trend. When I think it's pretty obvious that it's part of the cyclical nature of the political landscape.

There's a natural ebb and flow to politics. 2008 was the high water mark for democrats, a "hope and change" candidate is going to experience some natural decline in popularity from his initial election to his reelection bid. Especially after an extremely controversial policy like ACA. There also wasnt a big novelty of voting for the first black president attached to it, which probably drew a lot of non-voters to the polls in 08.

It looks like mostly people are drawing a line from when Democrats had their most viable charismatic candidate and the Republicans their least to when the Republican base was energized by an outsider, and democrats ran a deeply uncharismatic and unpopular woman against him.

I'm saying this was the GOPs high water mark, and its pretty damn low. Now inside those ups and downs we can see strong trends, young people are much more liberal, and don't seem to be on course to change (unlike boomers that settled down and started voting for whoever the televangelist told them to.) I can't guarantee that GOP never has a big election again, but I guarantee they're going to need upset years like 2016 to get them.