NFL mock draft 2022: Jordan Reid's predictions for all 32 first-round picks, including Kayvon Thibodeaux, Matt Corral, Kenny Pickett
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Mel Kiper Jr. and David Pollack assess the top quarterbacks on Mel's Big Board for the 2022 NFL draft. (1:24)
5:55 AM CT
With just two regular-season games left for most FBS teams, we're steamrolling towards the beginning stages of
NFL draft season with my first mock draft. Postseason all-star game invitations have begun to surface, and conference championship teams are close to being finalized. The
College Football Playoff race is still wide-open, and teams are fighting to strengthen their résumés in order to be one of the four hopefuls that will play for a national title.
With the Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine Bowl and other all-star games set to kick off before the combine in March, there will be a lot of tweaks and changes over the course of the next five months before the 2022 draft takes place in Las Vegas (April 28-30).
In the latest 2022 rankings from
Mel Kiper Jr. and
Todd McShay, there have already been several risers and fallers since the season began. In my first mock draft of the cycle, there are many familiar names that match up with their new rankings, but there are also prospects you might not recognize -- yet. There will be lots of prospects who shuffle in and out, which is customary of the draft process. We still have a long way to go until we learn more about testing numbers and things beyond what shows up on tape.
The first-round order I'm using below is determined by the
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections, which performs 10,000 simulations to predict the final standings. This order is based on how expects the season to finish, not how the current order looks now.
Let's get into my early projections for Round 1, where the strength of the class on the offensive side is at offensive tackle and wide receiver, but on defense, it's the talent at edge rusher and cornerback.
(Underclassmen are denoted with an asterisk.)
1. Detroit Lions (0-8-1)
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon*
In full rebuild mode, the Lions are at the stage in which the emphasis should be on stockpiling the most talent. With no clear QB1 candidate emerging during the college football season and with an out in current quarterback
Jared Goff's contract after the 2022 season, first-year general manager Brad Holmes could take the Browns' approach from the 2017 draft (
Myles Garrett) and pick the best overall prospect. Thibodeaux has
lived up to the hype (six sacks in eight games) and positioned himself to be the No. 1 pick in April.
Biggest needs: QB, EDGE, WR
2. Houston Texans (1-8)
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
With nine picks in this draft, general manager Nick Caserio will have an opportunity to imprint his own identity on a roster that has been stripped down to the studs since he
took over in January. Deshaun Watson
still wants out, which means quarterback is a big need, but the Texans must continue to add talent to the entire roster. Their talent on the edge is scarce, particularly after releasing veteran
Whitney Mercilus and trading away
Charles Omenihu. Hutchinson (nine sacks, two forced fumbles) would be an upgrade at a premium position and instantly become their best pass-rusher.
Biggest needs: QB, DL, WR
Introducing Jordan Reid
Reid, a former quarterback and assistant coach at North Carolina Central University, is ESPN's newest NFL draft analyst. He was previously a writer and scout for The Draft Network.
More coverage »
3. New York Jets (2-7)
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU*
After aiming to rebuild the offense during the
first draft with Robert Saleh as the coach, general manager Joe Douglas and the Jets could invest on the other side of the ball this offseason. Stingley, who hasn't played since
having foot surgery in early October, had six interceptions as a true freshman in 2019. He has a skill set and ceiling that is reminiscent of former Ohio State corner
Marshon Lattimore, who was drafted No. 11 overall by the Saints in 2017. Stingley would be a clear improvement over New York's current corners.
Biggest needs: CB, EDGE, OL
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama*
The offensive line could turn into a weakness for the Jags in a hurry, with left tackle
Cam Robinson playing on the franchise tag this season and three more starters entering contract years in 2022. At 6-foot-7 and 350 pounds, Neal could step in at multiple spots, as he already has experience at both guard and tackle. He has starred at left tackle for the Crimson Tide this season.
Biggest needs: CB, OL, WR
5. New York Giants (via 3-6 CHI)
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State*
Left tackle
Andrew Thomas, the No. 4 overall pick in 2020, has shown signs of improvement during his second season -- though he's now
on injured reserve with a foot injury, and his replacement,
Matt Peart, remains inconsistent. The 6-foot-4, 320-pound Ekwonu has been
stellar at left tackle this season, but opinions vary on the position he'll play at the next level. He could be a top-tier starter at right tackle or guard.
Biggest needs: EDGE, OL, LB
6. Philadelphia Eagles (via 3-7 MIA)
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame*
The last time the Eagles drafted a defensive back in Round 1? It was 2002, when they took cornerback
Lito Sheppard at No. 26. They've also
never drafted a safety in the first round. They could break that streak with the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Hamilton, a do-it-all player who had three interceptions before
suffering a knee injury last month. Hamilton would be a huge boost to a Philadelphia secondary that is allowing quarterbacks to complete 74% of their passes this season, which ranks last in the league.
Biggest needs: DB, EDGE, LB
7. New York Giants (3-6)
George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue*
The Giants have gotten 5.5 sacks from rookie second-round pick
Azeez Ojulari, but they need to stockpile young edge rushers to improve their defense. Karlaftis is a versatile and heavy-handed defensive lineman who could contribute early in the NFL. Karlaftis has only 2.5 sacks this season, but he is always around the quarterback. With two top-seven picks, this means the Giants get starters along the offensive and defensive lines.
Biggest needs: EDGE, OL, LB
8. Washington Football Team (3-6)
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss*
This is not as strong of a quarterback class as we've seen in the past few years, and Corral has been one of the few who has remained consistent throughout the season. Still in search of a franchise quarterback after
Dwayne Haskins didn't work out in Round 1 in 2019, Washington could get its pick of the signal-callers in this class. Corral has blossomed in his third season in coach Lane Kiffin's offense. He's an electric thrower with a quick release, and he has unlocked the next stage of his development. After throwing 11 interceptions in two games combined last season (LSU and Arkansas), he has thrown only two this season. As an improved decision-maker, Corral has positioned himself to be atop the quarterback rankings.
Biggest needs: QB, OL, DB
Illustration by ESPN
9. Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M*
The Falcons lack foundational pieces on defense, outside of tackle
Grady Jarrett and cornerback
A.J. Terrell, and they have needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Leal is a consistent pressure generator; just check out his tape against Ole Miss on Saturday, when he had seven total tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. That's just a snapshot of his next-level projection. Although he likely won't be a defender who gets double-digit sacks in a season, his versatility, strength and ability to disrupt dropbacks are areas that Atlanta lacks up front.
Biggest needs: EDGE, OT, S
10. New York Jets (via 3-6 SEA)
David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan*
Ojabo is the defensive prospect who has
helped himself most this season, as he has 10 sacks and four forced fumbles in 10 games. It's just a one-year sample for the third-year sophomore, but he has starred on the other side of
Aidan Hutchinson. Ojabo, a former high school teammate of 2021 first-rounder
Odafe Oweh, is the exact type of prospect the Jets should covet to place alongside a
healthy Carl Lawson in 2022. The Jets can fill both of their biggest need positions -- corner and edge -- with their two top-10 picks.
Biggest needs: CB, EDGE, OL
11. Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida*
After taking safety
Kyle Hamilton with their first Round 1 pick, the Eagles could continue to remake their secondary here. Thanks to extra picks from the Dolphins and 49ers, they have a chance to take the top safety and corner in this class. Elam, who has six career interceptions, would give Philadelphia an option to pair alongside
Darius Slay in 2022.
Biggest needs: DB, EDGE, LB
12. Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The experiment with
Cam Newton on a
one-year deal could change the Panthers' quarterback outlook, but it doesn't appear as if
Sam Darnold is the answer, even though the team
picked up his option for next season. Pickett could be a match here, as he has history with Carolina coach Matt Rhule. He was
once a Temple commit (2016) while Rhule was leading the program. While constructing the roster, Rhule has shown special attention to players he has coached. Pickett, a fifth-year senior, has made an astronomical rise after he received a midround grade from NFL scouts at the end of last season. A calm distributor -- he has thrown 32 touchdown passes and just four picks this season -- he might not be of a similar size to some of his counterparts, but his accuracy, decision-making and intangibles could force a team to fall in love with him.
Biggest needs: OL, QB, WR
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Kenny Pickett airs it out for 32-yard touchdown Pass
Kenny Pickett airs it out for 32-yard touchdown Pass
13. Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
In previous years, these have been general manager Mike Mayock's requirements for first-round picks: being a senior, having production and playing at a blue-blood program. After the
release of 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs, the Raiders quickly scrambled to
sign veteran DeSean Jackson. Olave, who has 11 touchdown catches this season, is a natural fit as a replacement for an organization that values speed. Olave could be a downfield threat to help
Derek Carr.
Biggest needs: WR, IDL, CB
14. Denver Broncos (5-5)
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty*
The Broncos are in dire need of a signal-caller, as neither
Teddy Bridgewater nor
Drew Lock has shown enough to be the quarterback of the future. The term "boom or bust" will be attached to Willis' name frequently throughout the draft process, but the Broncos must address the one position that is holding its roster back from being a consistent AFC contender. Built like a tank in a 6-foot-1 frame, Willis has plenty of arm strength. He oozes athletic traits that evaluators love to see at the position. While the Auburn transfer has the ability to become an NFL starter, his consistency this season has been a roller-coaster experience, as he has thrown three picks in three different games. If placed within the right infrastructure -- and given patience -- he could become worthy of this draft slot.
Biggest needs: QB, EDGE, LB
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via 5-5 IND)
Tyler Linderbaum, IOL, Iowa*
With one more first-round pick in this draft -- this selection is based on
Carson Wentz playing 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps, and he's at 99.3% -- the Eagles could fortify the offensive line. Linderbaum could be the heir apparent to oft-injured guard
Brandon Brooks or veteran center
Jason Kelce. They used a second-round pick in April on
Landon Dickerson, who also has experience at center, but they still need a young influx of depth in the interior offensive line.
Biggest needs: DB, EDGE, LB
16. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati*
Gardner hasn't surrendered a touchdown over the entirety of his three-year career with the Bearcats, and with this pick he could stay near his college. At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he's a lanky press-coverage corner who has the length to consistently cloud throwing windows and make it hard for receivers at the line. The Bengals' defense has been better this season, but it still ranks 24th in passing yards allowed per game (260.3).
Biggest needs: CB, OT, TE
EDITOR'S PICKS
17. Miami Dolphins (via 4-5 SF)
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The Dolphins drafted
Austin Jackson at No. 18 overall in the 2020 draft with the hopes that he'd be their long-term left tackle, but the experiment hasn't worked. After he was moved to guard, there's still a massive hole on the outside. Miami's offensive line ranks last in the league in
pass block win rate. Cross, who is technically sound and consistent, could be a plug-and-play option.
Biggest needs: OL, LB, EDGE
18. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson*
With
Patrick Peterson and
Bashaud Breeland on expiring contracts and 2020 third-rounder
Cameron Dantzler still developing, Minnesota's long-term outlook at cornerback looks bleak. In past early-round selections at the position, the Vikings' front office has valued versatile cornerbacks who are also consistent run-defenders. Booth is one of the best in this class at both of those, and so he'd check the boxes that the regime has coveted.
Biggest needs: CB, EDGE, IOL
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1)
Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M*
This Steelers pick will likely be a common landing spot for quarterbacks in other mock drafts, but I believe the team will look to acquire a veteran instead of a rookie. From the
exchange of sideline smirks between Mike Tomlin and
Aaron Rodgers, reports of
not wanting to start over with a rookie and a roster that is built to contend for a playoff spot, Pittsburgh could instead go after Rodgers,
Russell Wilson or an alternate option if
Ben Roethlisberger retires. And with expected holes along the interior offensive line in 2022, Green could be a strong option. He has been a stalwart for the Aggies this season, playing more than 85 snaps apiece at left tackle, left guard, right guard and right tackle.
Biggest needs: QB, OT, CB
20. Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State*
Odell Beckham Jr. is gone, and the Browns have several important decisions to make in the receiver room this offseason, which means they could look to the position with their pick. Wilson, who reminds me of
Stefon Diggs, is my WR1 in this class. He has strong hands, shows off unique body control and is a creative route runner with a high-level understanding of how to get open. With general manager Andrew Berry showing that he values age -- Wilson will be 21 when he's drafted -- and production, Wilson checks many of the boxes Cleveland looks for in prospects.
Biggest needs: IDL, WR, EDGE
21. New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
With
Jameis Winston tearing his
ACL in Week 8, quarterback could be an option, but the absence of
Michael Thomas has brought the team's lack of talent at wide receiver to the forefront. A strong argument can be made that Dotson has the best hands and widest catch radius -- even though he's only 5-foot-11 -- of any receiver in this class. His route running and strong hands would be a welcomed addition in Sean Payton's offense. He has caught 80 passes for 993 yards and nine touchdowns this season.
Biggest needs: CB, S, QB
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0:27
Sean Clifford connects on the deep ball on Penn State's first offensive play
Sean Clifford goes for it all on the first offensive play and hits Jahan Dotson for the 52-yard touchdown.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia
The Chargers' run defense is still one of the worst in the league -- it ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed (4.8) and rushing first downs allowed (85). And with
Linval Joseph set to become a free agent, the team could look for a younger option. The 6-foot-6, 340-pound Davis is an anchor in the middle who could completely change a defense. He has the potential to have a
Vita Vea type of effect on a defense, as his presence allows other defenders to roam and make plays.
Biggest needs: IDL, EDGE, OT
23. New England Patriots (6-4)
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah*
After the
trade of Stephon Gilmore, cornerback and linebacker are likely the two biggest holes for New England entering the 2022 offseason. Lloyd is a versatile second-level defender who could provide value in multiple areas, and the Patriots don't have high-end options after
Dont'a Hightower. Lloyd, who has 85 tackles, six sacks and three interceptions this season, could excel in a multiple-front defense that involves interchanging parts, and he'll pick up pressures as a blitzing pass-rusher as well.
Biggest needs: CB, LB, WR
24. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Drake London, WR, USC*
After attempting to sign
JuJu Smith-Schuster in the offseason and adding
Josh Gordon to the roster
in September, it's clear that the Chiefs want to add a specific type of receiver to play alongside
Tyreek Hill and
Mecole Hardman, one with size and the physicality to do the dirty work. At 6-foot-5, 210 pounds, London fits that profile. He can win easily at the catch point, is a versatile route runner and isn't shy as a run blocker. Before
breaking his ankle last month, London had 88 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns.
Biggest needs: WR, EDGE, DB
25. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa*
Following the
offseason trade of
Orlando Brown Jr. and the
season-ending ankle injury to
Ronnie Stanley, the Ravens have attempted to patch work their offensive tackle spots. They need depth along their offensive line. The 6-foot-7 Penning, a smashmouth blocker who plays through the whistle, fits the reputation of what Baltimore wants to do on offense.
Biggest needs: IDL, S, OT
26. Detroit Lions (via 7-3 LAR)
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas*
The Lions got a star edge rusher with their first pick, and now they can get a starter on the other side of the ball. They are in desperate need of playmakers on the perimeter, and Burks can step in and play a vital role for a roster starved of talent. Burks has 51 catches for 796 yards and eight touchdowns this season, and he has done most of his damage out of the slot. At 6-foot-3, however, he could also play outside.
Biggest needs: QB, EDGE, WR
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Treylon Burks makes catch for 14-yard TD
Treylon Burks makes catch for 14-yard TD
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
After being plagued with injuries to multiple starters this season, the Bucs depth in the secondary has been exploited. McCreary, a physical man-coverage corner, has put together a stellar senior campaign. He has a playing style similar to Bears 2020 second-round pick
Jaylon Johnson, who likely would've been a Day 1 selection if not for multiple shoulder surgeries. McCreary must improve his tackling in run support, but he has all of the tools to be an early starter on the perimeter.
Biggest needs: CB, IDL, WR
28. Dallas Cowboys (7-2)
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
After handing out multiple one-year deals at the safety spot during the offseason, the Cowboys lack a young long-term option. Brisker is an active and loose-moving safety with experience at multiple spots. He has five interceptions and 12 pass breakups over three seasons at Penn State. Dallas' defense has improved this season, but it needs to look to the future to continue the overhaul of the back end. Taking Brisker near the end of Round 1 would be a low-cost option to help.
Biggest needs: DL, CB, S
29. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
Kingsley "JJ" Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
With
Za'Darius and
Preston Smith both entering the final year of their contracts in 2022, the Packers could get ahead of a potential need a year in advance. Enagbare has posted the third-best defensive pressure rate in the country (18.3%) and has shown off an improved catalog of pass-rush moves. He could be an ideal target for Green Bay
Biggest needs: WR, EDGE, IDL
30. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama*
Williams, an Ohio State transfer, has starred in his lone season in Tuscaloosa. At a slender 6-foot-2, 189 pounds, he is a seasoned route runner who can attack the deeper portions of the field. He has averaged 20.2 yards on his 51 catches this season, adding 10 touchdowns. With
Emmanuel Sanders on a one-year deal, adding Williams with
Stefon Diggs,
Gabriel Davis and
Cole Beasley will continue the Bills' explosiveness on the perimeter.
Biggest needs: IOL, IDL, WR
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0:17
Bryce Young airs it out for 50-yard Bama TD
Bryce Young connects with Jameson Williams for a 50-yard passing touchdown.
31. Arizona Cardinals (8-2)
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington*
Byron Murphy and
Marco Wilson are promising pieces in the Cardinals' secondary, but they need an outside corner who could take over for veteran
Robert Alford. As Arizona did with Murphy in Round 2 in 2019, it could go back to the Washington well with the selection of McDuffie. He has experience in both man and zone coverage and is a consistent tackler in run support. He has also played snaps in the slot, which adds to his value.
Biggest needs: CB, DL, IOL
32. Tennessee Titans (8-2)
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia*
Dean, who plays with infectious energy levels and physicality, is the leader of the vaunted Georgia defense that has surrendered an FBS-leading 7.6 points per game. He has had a standout junior season, racking up 51 tackles, 4.5 sacks and two interceptions. While his size won't clear the thresholds for some teams -- he's 6 feet, 225 pounds -- he's the exact type of versatile option the Titans need in the middle of their defense.
Biggest needs: EDGE, LB, TE