The 2020 NFL Draft gameplan: Here is what the Cowboys should do at No. 17
By Bob Sturm 2h ago
This has been a spring we shall not soon forget, but with today being draft day (one), allow us to pretend we aren’t all wearing sweatpants in our homes right now.
Allow us to feel some semblance of what draft day generally feels like, which has nothing to do with society around us but rather the pressure our team should feel on its biggest day of the offseason to do something that could alter the course of the franchise. If we believe that the NFL Draft is the primary path to winning – and we should feel that way, as the examples are numerous – then the time has quite clearly arrived to make your impact.
The reality is that the picks begin tonight, but the results will not be realized until September (we hope and assume that remains true in 2020). So by the time we have a feel for how well a team has done, the damage has been sustained. In other words, over the last several months, hundreds of media types have been taking careful notes about which players are more coveted than others, but that is often not very close to the relationship of which players will be more impactful in the NFL.
For instance, on Tuesday, I offered you a final analysis of where I believe the 60 players I have scouted heavily in this draft should slot relative to each other. That should be taken for my view on their quality, not where they will be taken in this draft. I have no idea if Jacksonville believes they should take C.J. Henderson at No. 9. But I do know that I believe there are 18 players better than him in this draft. Predicting draft slots is much less useful to me because teams’ opinions entering the draft are much less interesting than what should be the actual question of any draft: Which of these players will have the most impactful careers? Why we get caught up on whether Arizona thinks they should take a tackle or a defensive tackle is busywork that becomes irrelevant in a few months. The question should always be which player helps Arizona win more games during his prime career span.
But you didn’t read this because you cared that much about Arizona or Jacksonville.
So let’s talk Cowboys.
The Cowboys have plenty of ammunition in this 2020 draft, and we can easily assume this will be much more interesting and entertaining than the 2019 version. It starts with the belief that they will get a very talented player in Round 1 who is part of this crop, so let’s tackle that issue right here and now and work back accordingly as the weekend goes along.
This top group consists of players who have almost no chance of getting to No. 17:
Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Jedrick Wills, Jeffrey Okudah, Derrick Brown, CeeDee Lamb and, yes, Jerry Jeudy
In every one of these cases, if a player in this grouping gets to No. 17, assuming there is not a trade to add additional top-50 (or so) picks to move back a bit, you take the player. All eight of them should be prioritized over any smaller plan you have for this pick. Hopefully, I make myself clear here: You drop all smaller plans and take the elite player if he is one of these eight names.
Let’s focus on Jeudy because of the knee issues that have been raised over the last few days. That seems like an even smaller issue than the Javon Kinlaw health discussions (which do exist, but are definitely not thought of as dealbreakers). In both cases, the ailments could knock the player down into the range of certain teams that would normally not have a chance at the guy. Nevertheless, I believe Jeudy remains in that top tier of players.
Ok, so that is eight players.
The next group would probably consist of players likely to be gone by No 17, but even if they do get there, they would probably not compel me to change my plans very much at all.
Justin Herbert, Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, and Henry Ruggs
I want to be clear that all five of these players appear to be excellent prospects who absolutely will have a chance to make a big name for themselves in the NFL. The intersection of their offerings and the Cowboys’ specific situation does not really get me going, however.
We’re up to 13 names.
This next group consists of one guy who almost certainly is gone by 8 p.m., but if he slips to Dallas and they don’t get a huge offer (probably an additional first), take him!
Tua Tagovailoa
Sorry, but No.-1-pick-level QBs don’t drop to 17 very often, and if this one does, I am buying my lottery ticket, and we will figure it out later. I am as pro-Dak as anyone should be, but we aren’t in the business of finding diamond rings on the sidewalk and not at least picking them up for safe-keeping.
14 names off the board.
I would list all 14 as unlikely to get to the Cowboys, and some will not make me change plans if they do.
Here we are. The Cowboys are almost on the clock. Most have said their favorite option in the draft is to trade back. I agree, but I think that is what almost every team starting with Washington at No. 2 would like to do. I just don’t believe the market is there on trade-backs, and I also think that market inefficiency is no longer a market inefficiency. The league has come around on the idea that you want more picks to increase chances of success. But if everyone knows that, and everyone wants the same thing, there is no advantage gained. You need a partner equally willing to pay a premium to move up.
So, assuming we can’t find that dance partner, the Cowboys might get stuck at 17. So let’s power rank the realistic options for Dallas at No. 17. I will confess that I have always been an “if all things are equal, I am taking the defensive linemen over the defensive back” guy. In this case, I think these prospects are all excellent players, and I kept to that because I would rather have the DT and the edge over the cornerback if I have any doubts about the corner (and I think this CB class is deep, but mostly lacks the top shelf).
POWER RANKING THE COWBOYS’ OPTIONS AT No. 17
1. DT – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
Unlikely to be there, I admit, but not impossible. This one is around a 30-percent possibility to slide down to the Cowboys, but if he does, this is your guy. He is 6’6 and 300 pounds, and I am not sweating at all the small health issues that have bothered some. I think his best football is ahead of him, and I also think he has the upside that I am all about on a defensive line with no permanent pieces you can feel great about other than Tank. This fixes that in a real hurry. I am going this route if he gets to me, assuming my information on his medicals is correct.
2. Edge – K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU
I have been pretty strongly on this kid for a while now if you have followed my coverage, and I do think it might take him until his second season to fully figure it out, but I see nothing about his 2019 tape that scares me from believing he would be perfect opposite DeMarcus Lawrence in that Robert Quinn role early on and develop into something very impressive moving forward. There is nothing more important on a defense than getting pressure on the QB, in my opinion, and Chaisson is the best non-Chase Young bet to get 10 sacks in a season during his rookie contract. I am in. If he gets to No. 17, I am happy.
3. CB – C.J. Henderson, Florida
Pound for pound, Henderson could very well be a slightly better prospect than Chaisson – I don’t believe that is true, but I can see the case for it. But I do believe there are many more corner options that might get to No. 51 than edge rushers with 10-sack potential. Henderson is very good but flawed in enough ways that I would take the twitchy edge first, yet of the corners, I do concede I like him more than the others by a whisker. There is plenty to like and some rough edges to smooth, but no doubt he is an opening day replacement for Byron Jones who might grow into that quality in no time. So we surely shouldn’t act like that isn’t a very solid addition.
4. CB – AJ Terrell, Clemson
Terrell is probably the least splashy name you can take here as a solid-but-not-spectacular corner on the outside who doesn’t require some major finishing-school work. I think LSU’s Kristian Fulton and especially Alabama’s Trevon Diggs are developmental guys, and I really would not wish to spend this type of currency on either of those this far up in a draft if I can avoid it. Trade back, fine, but at 17, Terrell is a safer corner choice, and I am merging the Cowboys’ opinions with mine and allowing him to get into this conversation even though I would not call him a top-20 player in this draft. This is a fall-back.
So, assuming those first 14 names are correct and these four are in the Cowboys stack, Pick 17 will certainly have one of these 18 names in the stable by the time we meet again.
5. S – Xavier McKinney, Alabama
I don’t think I should rule out the Cowboys taking a player I do not value this highly. He is not my top safety (Grant Delpit) nor is he my second safety (Antoine Winfield), but the Cowboys often like solid players better than high-ceiling ones. I generally share those views, but on this one, I will merely concede that McKinney is a guy they like and, especially if they jump back a few spots, could be their answer to a secondary that has even less quality long-term depth than the defensive line. They need pieces, and he would be a talented one, but I just think you can do better here. Like Terrell, I don’t think he rates this highly.
I don’t think they would take a center or a linebacker in Round 1. I think that is building their files if they decide to move back. I doubt they would go wide receiver in Round 1 unless it is Lamb or Jeudy, but you wouldn’t have to twist my arm on Justin Jefferson if they move back – there are a ton of LSU prospects that seem to fall in this general range – and I am sure Henry Ruggs would get the people going, too.
One last thing: It is very tricky to do what I am about to suggest, but I think considering the supply at No. 51 in Round 2 is worthwhile as a tie-breaker at No. 17. For instance, I think I like about 10 cornerbacks, 12 wide receivers and six defensive tackles as possibilities to get to 51. However, the edge players and safeties I prefer seem unlikely to reach that point. Therefore, you either take one at 17 who you feel is worth it (rare) or you circle back and hope No. 82 brings you that (even more remotely unlikely).
That is why Kinlaw and Chaisson should be up top, as well. If I think the third-best corner might not be much better than the sixth- or seventh-best corner (TCU’s Jeff Gladney or Utah’s Jaylon Johnson, let’s say) then I would be advised to get what is in short supply in Round 1 and perhaps even consider using a fourth to move up from 51 to grab Gladney or Johnson rather than reaching at 17 on Terrell or Diggs.
This has been a very enjoyable process, and my biggest regret is I didn’t get to 100 prospects. The ones I wish I spent more time on this year are Texas Tech’s Jordyn Brooks, Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet and Southern Illinois Jeremy Chinn. I evaluated no running backs at all and only five offensive linemen in a draft that appears to have about 15 who could go in the first 60 picks.
Oh, well. If you are me, you just grind as hard as you can for 12 weeks and do your best. You also never forget you liked Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning.
In the end, the enjoyment is in the event. These guys fascinate us with their futures and their potential for greatness, which can sometimes transform an entire franchise. Let’s see who can grab greatness first.