You do realize there have been several coaches, not on the level of Sean Payton, who have managed to make it to conference championships and Super Bowls, right?
Ron Rivera, Chuck Pagano, Rex Ryan, Dan Quinn, Ken Whisenhunt, Gary Kubiak are just a few that immediately come to mind.
It doesn't take a Hall of Fame level coach to reach Super Bowls and conference title games in the modern NFL. If you have a talented roster and a head coach who actually understands situational football and who doesn't simply gloss over the details during the practice week, there's a very good chance that your team wins or at least makes an appearance in the conference title game.
Also, winning at that level requires a coach who is not afraid to go out and win the game. Garrett come outs coaching scared in every single late season big game. Same with playoff games. It doesn't take a Sean Payton level coach to not punt the ball on 4th and 1 from your opponent's 45 yard line.