The Cowboys best path to upsetting the Rams? 5 questions and prediction
By
Bob Sturm
2h ago
It’s another week in the healing process of the
Dallas Cowboys quarterback, but not the one when he returns to the field of play. That scenario seemed possible a week ago — that
Dak Prescott could play in Los Angeles if things went well — but now, it seems a real rush of things to get him back for the biggest game of the season (to that point) next week in Philadelphia.
In other words, for those of you who wanted to see
Cooper Rush keep the job, you are in luck! Because Rush will now take his act up a level of difficulty or two as he plays two playoff teams on the road in a spot where the Cowboys will be the considerable underdog in both games. Can he continue his hot hand? Of course, he can. But, it will be incredibly difficult to get in and out of Los Angeles with an unthinkable 4-1 record on Sunday.
Can you even imagine that this possibility is in play? At 3-1, Rush and the Cowboys have done brilliant work in the past three weeks and should be lauded. Can they possibly split these two road games? Could they possibly end the trip with a 4-2 record? If they can, there should be no conditions added to the acceptance form. The Cowboys should take that and run.
The Cowboys do get the benefit of playing the
Rams on a short week and when we last saw the champs, they were down many bodies and looked rather bruised and battered in San Francisco. No rest for the weary and they will need a result on home turf against a backup QB for sure.
Dallas will wander west with a fair amount of self-belief and some swagger after their last month.
What are the five questions on my mind as we approach this game?
1. How does Dallas stay ahead of the sticks and the scoreboard?
There is no doubt in my mind that the reason the Cowboys have been successful is that they have been able to stay on schedule. What that means is that without Prescott, they have barely trailed in each of these last three games. They have reduced their sacks allowed and penalties — they have barely spent time in really long yards-to-gain situations. In other words, one of the biggest ways to help a limited offense is to not limit it. What we mean is that if you are always in first-and-10, second-and-5, third-and-3 situations, then you can choose from your whole playbook. Also, if you are leading or only behind by a field goal, you can also run a balanced attack. The moment that changes you become reliant on the passing game or the same becomes true because you are behind by 13 points, then you make your job very difficult.
We should not lose fact of the Cowboys staying on the front foot in these games, but part of that is playing an opponent that is not hitting on all cylinders. That will be a massive key in this one. Stay connected and close. Stay on time. If you get behind the chains too far, don’t capitulate and do something out of character if you have any choice in the matter. If you are down 14 in the fourth quarter, you have no choice. Otherwise, stay disciplined and accept a punt if that is what you are facing.
2. Is there a way to handle and limit Cooper Kupp’s impact on the Rams offense?
It is a great exercise. Do you want to limit Cooper Kupp’s impact or do you actually encourage the one-dimensional offense we saw Monday night in San Francisco? Yes, he has absurd individual numbers and may be uncoverable, but while 14 catches for 122 yards will win some fantasy matchups, it didn’t seem to get the Rams much closer to victory. In fact, no other receivers did anything and the running game stinks. Pass protection was an issue and
Matthew Stafford had a very inefficient night. In a nutshell, if you can make him work for his numbers and limit his friends, then I am pretty sure 100 yards from Kupp is something you can survive. Of course, there might not be much you can do about it anyway.
3. How do you deal with Aaron Donald over your left guard?
Great question. The Cowboys have used three guards this year and I assume
Connor McGovern will get the shot Sunday.
Matt Farniok and
Jason Peters are also in the mix. Aaron Donald has been known to be one of the very few humans on the planet to make
Zack Martin look mortal, so you know what he will do to McGovern and Farniok. As for Peters, he is probably the most capable, but he also has played sparingly. Is he able to play a full game? And while he is capable of playing guard at some level, we do know that his excellence is completely from playing out at tackle. For tackles, dealing with Donald’s low center of gravity is usually out of their comfort zone. He will move around and disrupt. We must assume he will cause Dallas to be very cautious with many of their calls up front. You don’t want to coach offense defensively, but you might consider this here.
4. Can the Cowboys pass rush boss this Rams make-shift offensive line?
This is where the game can swing to Dallas. Can this pass rush have a game? The Rams are really struggling to protect and Stafford is not really one to make you miss. Can this be a mighty
Micah Parsons night? Can
DeMarcus Lawrence cause chaos? Can the entire front wreck things against a guard-center-guard group that is just trying to keep its head above water? The Rams are having all sorts of issues and their sacks allowed per attempt sit at 30th, while Dallas is up at fourth and gets as much pressure cooking as any team in the league. If you want to swing this game, go get four to five sacks. Dallas has been so good at doing this and has done it without much of a blitz package. That decline in frequency has actually raised the effectiveness. Fewer blitzes, but better results. That can be a key for the Cowboys when they are expecting their defense to pull them along again.
GO DEEPER
Cooper Rush is winning for the Cowboys, but offense isn't the same without Dak Prescott
5. Can Cooper Rush keep his turnover-less performances going?
This is the other one. Somehow, Dallas has not turned the ball over since a
Dalton Schultz fumble in Week 2. Can the Cowboys play a clean game where every drive ends in a kick? If it is a field goal, extra point or punt every drive, then you have played a clean game and not given the Rams an easy path to victory. Be aggressive, but not reckless. That is the key and one Rush has done so very well. But, the moment those tipped passes find enemy hands and this game gets going too fast, then we might taste the reality of this situation. Dallas can win this game, but its path to victory must be a positive turnover day. Stafford is very generous right now with the ball as he has thrown 16 interceptions in his past eight games. Can you believe that number? Impossible in today’s NFL, right? Wrong. He led the NFL in picks in 2021 and is leading the NFL in picks again in 2022. Nobody cares, he won the Super Bowl. But, get more than you give on Sunday and you have a chance. Give more than you get and this might be a 10-point loss.
Prediction
We figure it will be a very cautious game from both sides early as neither team will be wanting to eliminate itself. The Rams have obviously tasted defeat a bit too much already and they will feel some pressure to not let this one get away. They won’t care what Rush has done, they will not want to lose to an anonymous backup QB on their home field. The
Bills and
49ers are understandable, but this would not go over well with anyone from the Rams. Meanwhile, the Cowboys should effort to simply get into the second half with a chance to win. At that point, perhaps they can still generate some offense that includes
CeeDee Lamb and
Michael Gallup attacking this secondary in Los Angeles that has lost quite a few pieces since the Super Bowl. I think the Rams are a team that should be feared going forward, but right now they look like they are fighting it at too many spots on their offense.
I like the Cowboys to stay within the point spread, but I assume they will probably lose in the end. Would love to be wrong, but I have it:
Rams 24, Cowboys 20.
Let’s tune in and see how it goes. Talk to you on Monday either way.