2021 NFL Draft Thread
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The Cowboys may end up with a top-5 draft pick. Which prospects could they add?
By Jon Machota and Dane Brugler 1h ago
The Cowboys don’t want to publicly discuss tanking. Acknowledging the possibility of losing games on purpose to get a higher draft pick isn’t going to happen. But entering Week 10, only the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) and New York Jets (0-9) have worse records than the 2-7 Cowboys.
Judging by Dallas’ remaining games, 2-14, 3-13 or 4-12 seem like real possibilities. With each week that passes since Dak Prescott’s season-ending ankle injury, a top-five pick looks more certain.
So why not peek ahead at who might be facing the Cowboys at the top of the 2021 NFL Draft?
To help with this exercise, we reached out to Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert. Brugler recently published his latest ranking of the top 50 prospects in this upcoming draft class.
It doesn’t make sense to focus on every position. After all, it’s unlikely that the Cowboys would use a top pick on a wide receiver, running back, tight end, guard or center. Everything else is pretty much on the table, so we broke it down into five groups: quarterback, defensive line, linebacker, defensive back and offensive tackle.
These are currently the Cowboys’ best options at those positions.
QUARTERBACK
This is the most interesting debate because it’s the most important position. Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones have gone on record this week: Prescott is their quarterback and they won’t even consider taking one at the top of next year’s draft. Frankly, what else should they say at this time? Prescott is still recovering from his gruesome injury. He’s expected to make a full recovery and remain the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future, even if that means playing a second consecutive season under the franchise tag. But don’t think that the Cowboys won’t at least do their due diligence on the position in their draft prep.
Brugler: If you’re a Cowboys fan, you’re looking at this quarterback class, and you’re seeing a lot of intriguing names at the top. And that should get you excited. Not because I think the Cowboys would possibly be interested — I think Dak is their quarterback there that they’re dead set on moving forward with — but because of the trade-back scenarios. That’s where I think Cowboys fans should be really excited about this quarterback class. There’s going to be several teams that maybe are picking at the back half of the top 10 or early teens who are going to want one of these quarterbacks. They might have the resources to trade up and get their guy, whether it’s Justin Fields out of Ohio State, Zach Wilson from BYU, Trey Lance from North Dakota State.
“I think Trevor Lawrence will go No. 1, most likely to the Jets. They have a pretty firm grasp on that. But this quarterback class is shaping up to be a pretty interesting group. If you’re a Cowboys fan, that’s good news because it keeps open the possibility of a possible trade-back scenario, getting more picks and a chance to get better even quicker with more draft capital.
“I would be surprised (if any other quarterback went before Lawrence or Fields), just because of what they have done and shown. But I’m also a big Zach Wilson fan. There’s plenty of chatter around the league talking about Wilson maybe being the second quarterback drafted. So I think it’s possible that there won’t be a consensus. Lawrence is viewed as the favorite, and then I don’t think there will necessarily be consensus after that. Most will like Fields, but some could certainly lean towards Wilson and Trey Lance, even though they’re much tougher evaluations.”
DEFENSIVE LINE
DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are expected back at the edge rusher spots. Aldon Smith could be in the mix also. At tackle, Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore are a pair of youngsters Dallas can build around. But you can never have enough quality defensive linemen. The Cowboys could certainly go a long way in fixing their defense if the top of this draft had a prospect like Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Jadeveon Clowney, Von Miller or Ndamukong Suh. However, it doesn’t appear like that’s the reality.
Brugler: “It’s a solid defensive end class. Defensive tackle, not so much. I think a lot will depend on the underclassmen. There are maybe two seniors that will be thought of in the top 100 picks at defensive tackle. So we’ll see what underclassmen come out. In my top 50, there’s only one defensive tackle in that mix, and he’s more of a borderline first-rounder right now. We’re looking for defensive tackles, and it just doesn’t look like it’s a very strong class at all.
“Defensive end, it’s solid. We’ve kind of been spoiled the last four-five years with Joey Bosa and then Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Chase Young last year. We’ve had that elite pass rusher at the top. This year, we don’t have that. We don’t have that clear-cut, no-doubt-about-it, top-five pick at pass rusher. But there are some solid options. Kwity Paye out of Michigan with what he’s done this year (two sacks, four tackles for loss in three games), he’s in the top-15 mix. He’s my top-rated senior regardless of position.
“I think Gregory Rousseau out of Miami (15.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss in 13 games last season), he’s all potential. There’s still a lot of development needed there, but the traits are fantastic. One of the biggest risers this season has been Azeez Ojulari out of Georgia (4.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss in six games). He’s a guy that can get after the quarterback with his athleticism off the edge. He would fit more in a 3-4 scheme, a guy who can play off the ball. Give him space, and let him use that athleticism.
“Those three guys really stand out as being possible top-20 picks. Now I don’t know that I would necessarily draft any of them in the top five or top seven, but these guys are solid first-rounders with a lot of reasons to be excited about them. Two other guys in the first-round conversation, in a trade-back scenario: Jayson Oweh from Penn State — and then Joseph Ossai from Texas has just been a lot of fun to watch this year. He gives off a lot of Justin Houston vibes.”
LINEBACKER
Jaylon Smith has started every game this season. Leighton Vander Esch has started every game that he’s been healthy. Two years ago, the Cowboys looked to be set at this position for a long time. Injuries and inconsistent play have made that less certain. This position particularly stands out because of talented Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, whom many are projecting to go within the top 10 and maybe even top five.
Brugler: “Parsons opted out, and I wish we could’ve seen him another year because he was mostly a pass rusher in high school. Then he goes to Penn State, they move him to linebacker. He was more of a backup as a freshman. And then last year, as a sophomore, he became a starter and he was great, a consensus All-American, 109 tackles, just a big-time player who got better and better and better. You wish you had another year of tape to really see his development and see how much better he could get. But even without that, we know Micah Parsons is a big-time athlete with a ton of potential. He’s going to go somewhere in the top 10. His ability to be a ball-hunter, you love it. The vision, the agility — it’s exceptional. The range — exceptional. His reaction to movement is terrific. I really think he can be a cornerstone defender, three-down linebacker for your defense. That’s why he’s viewed as a top-10 pick.
“After him, I think the second-best linebacker in this class is Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah from Notre Dame, who is a little bit of that hybrid linebacker who is going to play at an overhang position, nickel-backer role. I think some people might be scared off by that with Isaiah Simmons struggling to get on the field for the Cardinals this year as a top-10 pick. Koramoah, try watching Notre Dame and not getting excited about how explosive he plays, the impact that he makes on the game. We saw it against Clemson on Saturday night. He’s just a big-time player. I had him as a first-round pick going into the year, and I think he’s worked himself into the top half of Round 1 with the way he’s played.
“And then a couple guys to keep on the radar for late Round 1, early 2 in a trade-back scenario or even in the second round. Nick Bolton out of Missouri, he’s going to get dinged because he doesn’t have those super-long arms, but the fiery tempo he plays with, the aggressiveness, the explosiveness — it’s a lot of fun to watch him go out there and work. And then three other guys in that early second-round mix: Chazz Surratt out of North Carolina, Zaven Collins out of Tulsa and then I’d throw Dylan Moses in there out of Alabama, even though he hasn’t necessarily been what we thought.
“I don’t know what the linebacker depth chart is going to look like after this year. Jaylon Smith has obviously been a disappointment. Still a big Leighton Vander Esch fan and what he provides to this defense; hopefully he can just stay healthy. Personally, I’d be surprised if they went linebacker with a top-five pick, but maybe in a trade-back scenario or maybe in that early second round, that’s the direction they go.”
DEFENSIVE BACK
This area needs the most help. Rookie Trevon Diggs and veteran Anthony Brown are the only two cornerbacks that seem locked in beyond this season. Second-year safety Donovan Wilson is expected to be back as well. Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis and Xavier Woods are all in the final year of their rookie contracts. Changes seem to be on their way in the defensive backfield this offseason. Cornerback would probably be the favorite if there were betting odds on which position Dallas will address with its first-round pick.
Brugler: “You have to be optimistic with Trevon Diggs with the way he’s played as a rookie. Assuming he comes back healthy from this foot injury, he’s one of your starters in the 2021 season opener, so you feel good about that. But who is the other starter opposite of him? There’s a lot of question marks there, obviously. So I absolutely think corner is in play with a top-10 pick. There’s a couple of guys that I think should be on their radar.
“Caleb Farley from Virginia Tech is another guy, kind of like the Micah Parsons conversation, he switched positions when he got to Virginia Tech. He never played corner before. So really it’s just been two years, but his ability to adapt to that position, you would think he’s been playing it all his life. The speed, the ball skills, the competitiveness — there’s a lot to like about Caleb Farley as a top-10 pick. Patrick Surtain from Alabama, I think most remember his dad as a Pro Bowler in the NFL. He’s following in his footsteps. He’s not going to run super well, he’s probably not going to be in the 4.5s in the 40-yard-dash, but this is a guy that understands body position, he understands how to read routes and stay on top of routes down the field. It wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea to reunite him and Diggs in that secondary.
“One other name to keep an eye on: Derion Kendrick out of Clemson. This is a player who was a five-star receiver, and they moved him to corner last year just because of depth issues, and he has really flourished at corner. You see him getting better and better. He’s a legit athlete, and he has natural instincts. He’s kind of living on those two traits right there, but he should continue to get better and better as he continues to learn the position and really settle in with the details.”
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
La’el Collins (hip) and Tyron Smith (neck) are expected to be healthy and ready to play at the start of the 2021 season. But what if the best player available when Dallas goes on the clock in April is an offensive tackle? Would the Cowboys select Smith’s future replacement? With so many defensive holes to fill, it seems unlikely. But it can’t be completely ruled out, especially with a franchise that used three first-round picks on offensive linemen between 2011 and 2014.
Brugler: “I think fans should be a little leery about the future of the position. It’s been a strength for so long, but especially with Tyron Smith, he’s been banged up the last few years. And it’s not like we’re talking about a sprained ankle; we’re talking about serious issues that could potentially linger and affect him. So I think offensive tackle is absolutely in the mix. And there’s one at the top, and that’s Penei Sewell out of Oregon.
“We don’t have that Chase Young this year, that clear No. 1 pass rusher, but in terms of maybe the clear cut No. 1 non-quarterback in this draft, that’s probably Sewell. He’s another opt-out who is not playing this year, but I’m not sure he needed to with what he put on film the first two years. It’s similar with Tyron when he was coming out of USC: a very, very young player. Penei Sewell won’t turn 21 years old until October. So he’ll be a 20-year-old rookie in the NFL, and he’s ready to step in.
“If the Cowboys consider him, they’ll have to ask themselves: Is he going to be able to play guard? If Tyron comes back healthy and La’el Collins comes back healthy, would Sewell be able to step in at guard and play there until they need him to move outside to play tackle? That’s a question they’ll really have to focus in on with their scouts and their personnel department to figure that out. I think Sewell is definitely in the mix there with a top-five pick.”
By Jon Machota and Dane Brugler 1h ago
The Cowboys don’t want to publicly discuss tanking. Acknowledging the possibility of losing games on purpose to get a higher draft pick isn’t going to happen. But entering Week 10, only the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) and New York Jets (0-9) have worse records than the 2-7 Cowboys.
Judging by Dallas’ remaining games, 2-14, 3-13 or 4-12 seem like real possibilities. With each week that passes since Dak Prescott’s season-ending ankle injury, a top-five pick looks more certain.
So why not peek ahead at who might be facing the Cowboys at the top of the 2021 NFL Draft?
To help with this exercise, we reached out to Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert. Brugler recently published his latest ranking of the top 50 prospects in this upcoming draft class.
It doesn’t make sense to focus on every position. After all, it’s unlikely that the Cowboys would use a top pick on a wide receiver, running back, tight end, guard or center. Everything else is pretty much on the table, so we broke it down into five groups: quarterback, defensive line, linebacker, defensive back and offensive tackle.
These are currently the Cowboys’ best options at those positions.
QUARTERBACK
This is the most interesting debate because it’s the most important position. Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones have gone on record this week: Prescott is their quarterback and they won’t even consider taking one at the top of next year’s draft. Frankly, what else should they say at this time? Prescott is still recovering from his gruesome injury. He’s expected to make a full recovery and remain the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future, even if that means playing a second consecutive season under the franchise tag. But don’t think that the Cowboys won’t at least do their due diligence on the position in their draft prep.
Brugler: If you’re a Cowboys fan, you’re looking at this quarterback class, and you’re seeing a lot of intriguing names at the top. And that should get you excited. Not because I think the Cowboys would possibly be interested — I think Dak is their quarterback there that they’re dead set on moving forward with — but because of the trade-back scenarios. That’s where I think Cowboys fans should be really excited about this quarterback class. There’s going to be several teams that maybe are picking at the back half of the top 10 or early teens who are going to want one of these quarterbacks. They might have the resources to trade up and get their guy, whether it’s Justin Fields out of Ohio State, Zach Wilson from BYU, Trey Lance from North Dakota State.
“I think Trevor Lawrence will go No. 1, most likely to the Jets. They have a pretty firm grasp on that. But this quarterback class is shaping up to be a pretty interesting group. If you’re a Cowboys fan, that’s good news because it keeps open the possibility of a possible trade-back scenario, getting more picks and a chance to get better even quicker with more draft capital.
“I would be surprised (if any other quarterback went before Lawrence or Fields), just because of what they have done and shown. But I’m also a big Zach Wilson fan. There’s plenty of chatter around the league talking about Wilson maybe being the second quarterback drafted. So I think it’s possible that there won’t be a consensus. Lawrence is viewed as the favorite, and then I don’t think there will necessarily be consensus after that. Most will like Fields, but some could certainly lean towards Wilson and Trey Lance, even though they’re much tougher evaluations.”
DEFENSIVE LINE
DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are expected back at the edge rusher spots. Aldon Smith could be in the mix also. At tackle, Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore are a pair of youngsters Dallas can build around. But you can never have enough quality defensive linemen. The Cowboys could certainly go a long way in fixing their defense if the top of this draft had a prospect like Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Jadeveon Clowney, Von Miller or Ndamukong Suh. However, it doesn’t appear like that’s the reality.
Brugler: “It’s a solid defensive end class. Defensive tackle, not so much. I think a lot will depend on the underclassmen. There are maybe two seniors that will be thought of in the top 100 picks at defensive tackle. So we’ll see what underclassmen come out. In my top 50, there’s only one defensive tackle in that mix, and he’s more of a borderline first-rounder right now. We’re looking for defensive tackles, and it just doesn’t look like it’s a very strong class at all.
“Defensive end, it’s solid. We’ve kind of been spoiled the last four-five years with Joey Bosa and then Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Chase Young last year. We’ve had that elite pass rusher at the top. This year, we don’t have that. We don’t have that clear-cut, no-doubt-about-it, top-five pick at pass rusher. But there are some solid options. Kwity Paye out of Michigan with what he’s done this year (two sacks, four tackles for loss in three games), he’s in the top-15 mix. He’s my top-rated senior regardless of position.
“I think Gregory Rousseau out of Miami (15.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss in 13 games last season), he’s all potential. There’s still a lot of development needed there, but the traits are fantastic. One of the biggest risers this season has been Azeez Ojulari out of Georgia (4.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss in six games). He’s a guy that can get after the quarterback with his athleticism off the edge. He would fit more in a 3-4 scheme, a guy who can play off the ball. Give him space, and let him use that athleticism.
“Those three guys really stand out as being possible top-20 picks. Now I don’t know that I would necessarily draft any of them in the top five or top seven, but these guys are solid first-rounders with a lot of reasons to be excited about them. Two other guys in the first-round conversation, in a trade-back scenario: Jayson Oweh from Penn State — and then Joseph Ossai from Texas has just been a lot of fun to watch this year. He gives off a lot of Justin Houston vibes.”
LINEBACKER
Jaylon Smith has started every game this season. Leighton Vander Esch has started every game that he’s been healthy. Two years ago, the Cowboys looked to be set at this position for a long time. Injuries and inconsistent play have made that less certain. This position particularly stands out because of talented Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, whom many are projecting to go within the top 10 and maybe even top five.
Brugler: “Parsons opted out, and I wish we could’ve seen him another year because he was mostly a pass rusher in high school. Then he goes to Penn State, they move him to linebacker. He was more of a backup as a freshman. And then last year, as a sophomore, he became a starter and he was great, a consensus All-American, 109 tackles, just a big-time player who got better and better and better. You wish you had another year of tape to really see his development and see how much better he could get. But even without that, we know Micah Parsons is a big-time athlete with a ton of potential. He’s going to go somewhere in the top 10. His ability to be a ball-hunter, you love it. The vision, the agility — it’s exceptional. The range — exceptional. His reaction to movement is terrific. I really think he can be a cornerstone defender, three-down linebacker for your defense. That’s why he’s viewed as a top-10 pick.
“After him, I think the second-best linebacker in this class is Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah from Notre Dame, who is a little bit of that hybrid linebacker who is going to play at an overhang position, nickel-backer role. I think some people might be scared off by that with Isaiah Simmons struggling to get on the field for the Cardinals this year as a top-10 pick. Koramoah, try watching Notre Dame and not getting excited about how explosive he plays, the impact that he makes on the game. We saw it against Clemson on Saturday night. He’s just a big-time player. I had him as a first-round pick going into the year, and I think he’s worked himself into the top half of Round 1 with the way he’s played.
“And then a couple guys to keep on the radar for late Round 1, early 2 in a trade-back scenario or even in the second round. Nick Bolton out of Missouri, he’s going to get dinged because he doesn’t have those super-long arms, but the fiery tempo he plays with, the aggressiveness, the explosiveness — it’s a lot of fun to watch him go out there and work. And then three other guys in that early second-round mix: Chazz Surratt out of North Carolina, Zaven Collins out of Tulsa and then I’d throw Dylan Moses in there out of Alabama, even though he hasn’t necessarily been what we thought.
“I don’t know what the linebacker depth chart is going to look like after this year. Jaylon Smith has obviously been a disappointment. Still a big Leighton Vander Esch fan and what he provides to this defense; hopefully he can just stay healthy. Personally, I’d be surprised if they went linebacker with a top-five pick, but maybe in a trade-back scenario or maybe in that early second round, that’s the direction they go.”
DEFENSIVE BACK
This area needs the most help. Rookie Trevon Diggs and veteran Anthony Brown are the only two cornerbacks that seem locked in beyond this season. Second-year safety Donovan Wilson is expected to be back as well. Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis and Xavier Woods are all in the final year of their rookie contracts. Changes seem to be on their way in the defensive backfield this offseason. Cornerback would probably be the favorite if there were betting odds on which position Dallas will address with its first-round pick.
Brugler: “You have to be optimistic with Trevon Diggs with the way he’s played as a rookie. Assuming he comes back healthy from this foot injury, he’s one of your starters in the 2021 season opener, so you feel good about that. But who is the other starter opposite of him? There’s a lot of question marks there, obviously. So I absolutely think corner is in play with a top-10 pick. There’s a couple of guys that I think should be on their radar.
“Caleb Farley from Virginia Tech is another guy, kind of like the Micah Parsons conversation, he switched positions when he got to Virginia Tech. He never played corner before. So really it’s just been two years, but his ability to adapt to that position, you would think he’s been playing it all his life. The speed, the ball skills, the competitiveness — there’s a lot to like about Caleb Farley as a top-10 pick. Patrick Surtain from Alabama, I think most remember his dad as a Pro Bowler in the NFL. He’s following in his footsteps. He’s not going to run super well, he’s probably not going to be in the 4.5s in the 40-yard-dash, but this is a guy that understands body position, he understands how to read routes and stay on top of routes down the field. It wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea to reunite him and Diggs in that secondary.
“One other name to keep an eye on: Derion Kendrick out of Clemson. This is a player who was a five-star receiver, and they moved him to corner last year just because of depth issues, and he has really flourished at corner. You see him getting better and better. He’s a legit athlete, and he has natural instincts. He’s kind of living on those two traits right there, but he should continue to get better and better as he continues to learn the position and really settle in with the details.”
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
La’el Collins (hip) and Tyron Smith (neck) are expected to be healthy and ready to play at the start of the 2021 season. But what if the best player available when Dallas goes on the clock in April is an offensive tackle? Would the Cowboys select Smith’s future replacement? With so many defensive holes to fill, it seems unlikely. But it can’t be completely ruled out, especially with a franchise that used three first-round picks on offensive linemen between 2011 and 2014.
Brugler: “I think fans should be a little leery about the future of the position. It’s been a strength for so long, but especially with Tyron Smith, he’s been banged up the last few years. And it’s not like we’re talking about a sprained ankle; we’re talking about serious issues that could potentially linger and affect him. So I think offensive tackle is absolutely in the mix. And there’s one at the top, and that’s Penei Sewell out of Oregon.
“We don’t have that Chase Young this year, that clear No. 1 pass rusher, but in terms of maybe the clear cut No. 1 non-quarterback in this draft, that’s probably Sewell. He’s another opt-out who is not playing this year, but I’m not sure he needed to with what he put on film the first two years. It’s similar with Tyron when he was coming out of USC: a very, very young player. Penei Sewell won’t turn 21 years old until October. So he’ll be a 20-year-old rookie in the NFL, and he’s ready to step in.
“If the Cowboys consider him, they’ll have to ask themselves: Is he going to be able to play guard? If Tyron comes back healthy and La’el Collins comes back healthy, would Sewell be able to step in at guard and play there until they need him to move outside to play tackle? That’s a question they’ll really have to focus in on with their scouts and their personnel department to figure that out. I think Sewell is definitely in the mix there with a top-five pick.”
Simpleton
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Surtain isn't going to be in the 4.5's in the 40?
Never in a million years would I draft a CB who runs 4.6+ in the top 10, I wouldn't even want one who can't get into the 4.4's let alone the 4.5's.
As far as Sewell, if he's there you have to pick him unless you get a massive package in a trade down. He's too rare of a prospect and could easily play LG for however long Smith is around.
Smith-Sewell-Biadasz-Martin-Collins for 2-3 years could potentially eclipse what we had in 2014 and 2016 immediately, and then when Smith is done you still have Sewell/Collins as your bookends, Biadasz in the middle and Martin for however long he can hold on (probably until about 34-35).
Never in a million years would I draft a CB who runs 4.6+ in the top 10, I wouldn't even want one who can't get into the 4.4's let alone the 4.5's.
As far as Sewell, if he's there you have to pick him unless you get a massive package in a trade down. He's too rare of a prospect and could easily play LG for however long Smith is around.
Smith-Sewell-Biadasz-Martin-Collins for 2-3 years could potentially eclipse what we had in 2014 and 2016 immediately, and then when Smith is done you still have Sewell/Collins as your bookends, Biadasz in the middle and Martin for however long he can hold on (probably until about 34-35).
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Yeah if a guy can't run at least a 4.5 I'm not taking him in the top 10 at corner. Speed is just too important at that position. Sucks all these guys who opted out. Marvin Wilson maybe more than anyone. Thought he had first round potential but isn't even in the discussion now.
Simpleton
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Wilson didn't opt out, he played a few games and now has an injury that put him out for the year. He wasn't especially impressive in the few games he played from what I saw.
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Oh haha never mind than. Still applies to guys like Parsons, Sewell and Farley though. Gregory Rousseau is another guy that I would have loved to see play this year. He may be a legit top 5 talent but it's hard to say without seeing the continued development.
On a side note what's everyone's opinions on Moehrig? After a trade down he seems like a really good safety prospect. Good size, great production and Kiper has him as like the 20th best prospect. I know I'm just wasting time talking about a safety in the first but both him and Holland intrigue me a lot. Holland is another guy, 9 picks over two seasons. He is another guy who opted out but he seems like the complete package potentially at safety as well.
armadillooutlaw
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Take Sewell or trade down is where I'm at.
Besides Lawrence (not happening), I don't see an elite prospect besides Sewell.
On the other hand, shy of a trade back/stockpiling of picks, I have no clue what we're going to do to upgrade the defense with the cap probably taking a big hit and having to pay Dak.
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2021 NFL Mock Draft: Kwity Paye, Zach Wilson rise in latest projection, New Orleans adds Joe Horn's son
Four quarterbacks are taken in the first round of this latest mock draft
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Farabaugh's 4-round 2021 NFL Mock Draft | Pro Football Network
With both the college football and NFL seasons hitting their strides, Nick Farabaugh unveils his 4-round 2021 NFL Mock Draft.
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Excellent mock for us! NT, great safety and franchise LT. Don't know much about the third round pick but I'll take it.Farabaugh's 4-round 2021 NFL Mock Draft | Pro Football Network
With both the college football and NFL seasons hitting their strides, Nick Farabaugh unveils his 4-round 2021 NFL Mock Draft.
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On our bye week we dropped from #3 to #5.
Ive seen the opposite?
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This is where I saw it...
2021 NFL Draft order: Cowboys No. 5; Broncos inch closer to top 10
The Broncos would hold the 2021 NFL Draft's 11th overall pick if the season ended today. See the full Round 1 order through Week 10, along with needs for each team.
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I dont think we end up there but would be nice to think we could get Sewell.This is where I saw it...
2021 NFL Draft order: Cowboys No. 5; Broncos inch closer to top 10
The Broncos would hold the 2021 NFL Draft's 11th overall pick if the season ended today. See the full Round 1 order through Week 10, along with needs for each team.
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Early Cowboys draft talk: To QB or not to QB, and other positions that matter
By Bob Sturm 1h ago
It’s time to address the sizable elephant in the room. And, unlike Tuesday’s piece, this elephant is largely positive news if it gets solved correctly
It’s a big one, though. At this moment in time, the Dallas Cowboys are on track to achieve their single highest draft position — third or fourth overall, depending on a brief tie-breaker that Dallas is currently on pace to finish on the right side of — since Russell Maryland was a Miami Hurricane about 30 years ago and Dallas selected him first overall. 30 seasons have passed since Russell won the Outland Award, and ironically, the last winner of that same trophy is Penei Sewell, the very large, amazing left tackle from Oregon who is one of the players the Cowboys could easily add if they continue at this level of losing excellence.
I will be honest: As I keep my head down and work on the topics of the day, I have not thought much about the 2021 NFL Draft just yet. My normal path, as you may know, is to spend lots of time on every single Dallas Cowboys play and game throughout the season, and then wander deep into the waters of the draft within a week of the last Cowboys game. There is no offseason, but there is also very little time for me to cover the current Cowboys squad to such an extent AND have a really good handle on the first round of the draft. As a mere mortal, you sort of have to pick one or the other.
But that doesn’t mean you, the valued reader, are going to be very interested in my preview of the upcoming game against Minnesota. If my feedback is any indication, though, you are probably watching out for the terrifying prospect that Dallas might start winning football games again.
Yes, that is right. Because we reward losing in this league with great draft talent, an entire generation of sports fans love to shove it in reverse and lose out to preserve the optimal selection in April. Seldom does a franchise have the ability to both pick third overall and win their division heading into Week 11, but 2020 is pretty wacky. And, yes, Dallas has a real chance of winning the NFC East due to the complete silliness of this four-team group even though the Cowboys only trail the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars for the top pick in a draft people have been pointing towards for a long time — largely due to the man from Clemson who sits at the very top, Trevor Lawrence.
A few days ago, I had a chance to field questions from Cowboys subscribers like you, and you can definitely see there were no queries about dealing with Dalvin Cook on Sunday. Rather, let’s talk about this pick, Bob!
What do you make of Jerry’s comments regarding not being interested in drafting a QB if they are in position to do so? I know he had to say that, but what if they do get a top 3 pick? – Jason A
If the Cowboys end up with a top 5 pick, can you see them taking a QB and signing Dak, let it play out and eventually trading Dak for additional picks? Thanks – Patrick M
If the Cowboys pick top 5, you seem them drafting a QB and forgetting about Dak? – Austin D
Would you draft QB Trevor Lawrence if you had the chance or would you trade the pick for more picks to help the defense? Thanks. – Bob L
I’m on team tank (or just keep doing what you’ve been doing to get a top three pick). That team. So I’m curious what you do there, trade down or stay put and try for the elite player? – Terry S
Well, the people have spoken. At the risk of not having you ready to recognize the Vikings’ blitz patterns and the latest machination of their offensive line, allow me to take a morning and walk through some of the things on my mind with regard to this very rare opportunity for the Cowboys (which is a truly bizarre mental way to navigate the next seven Cowboys games and then a potential franchise-altering opportunity for the entire organization).
First, Dallas’ draft position can be altered quite a bit with a win or two (or seven straight losses). The Jets and Jaguars hold the top two picks, and that matters quite a bit because we have to assume that both are seriously in the market for a quarterback. The Chargers, Dolphins (thank you, Houston!) and Washington are also in the mix to pick early with 2-7 records, but Dallas has that valuable head-to-head loss with Washington. This is a weird way to think about the Thanksgiving rivalry game because we may not fully know what Dallas would do with a top pick, but we can rest assured that Washington is a key player in the QB sweepstakes this spring. On the other hand, we assume the Dolphins and the Chargers are certainly not interested in QB1 after the fine prospects they acquired in 2020.
We should also remember one thing right here. For those of us who value the idea of winning a division title even if it is a really bad one —flags fly forever — while you can definitely find morale and building blocks in beating Philadelphia to a finish line of any distance, we had better at least be aware of this sobering fact: The winner of the division will make the playoffs. In doing so, they could easily lose 15 places in line on the road to the playoffs. In the past, the non-playoff teams have the first 20 picks and then the teams in the postseason are stacked by how far they advance. Tie-breakers revert back to the regular-season record. That would mean that if you win a wild-card round, you could not pick higher than 25th even if you were 5-11 in the regular season. That is a real consideration when you are currently very close to the third overall pick. While we don’t fully know this year’s playoff format thanks to the unique circumstances of the season, we know the playoffs will have at least seven teams per conference, and it could actually be eight, so this is one tentacle of that fallout. But, in all likelihood, the division winner will probably drop about a dozen spots in the draft each round at the very least — and that means losing out on quite a significant caliber of athlete. In general, it is quite a leap of player from best at his position and virtually a flawless prospect to guys who can be great but come accompanied by a great deal of risk.
Now that all of that is on wax, so let’s move to the three biggest ideas I am constantly asked about.
1) What is my interest level in drafting a top-tier quarterback and letting Dak Prescott walk in free agency?
You probably know my short answer: none. I think it is a bad idea, and I have walked through the inaccurate and misleading tropes that suggest that you cannot pay a QB like Dak Prescott and still win a Super Bowl (or even contend for one). This is not true, and has been certainly propped up by Tom Brady never taking a top salary over so many years as well as Russell Wilson winning on a rookie deal. Now even Nick Foles and Pat Mahomes (pre-contract) have won Super Bowls, too. Still, the rising costs of QBs and the evolution of the position’s upper class tells us we are about to have many, many years of QBs winning Super Bowls on top-10 money, and that normalization will be clearly seen. Until then, I advise you to read my study from last spring to understand the clear strawman of this conversation and to get out ahead of what is obviously happening. I honestly can’t believe so many in my industry cannot see this, but I suppose sometimes things have to hit us in the face first.
In regards to the Cowboys’ situation, if you have a 27-year old star QB who has consistently put up both personal stats and team offensive accomplishments, along with a large number of wins and has also proven to have the intangibles to do this particular job without wavering as well as a very well-seen durability that had never shown a crack before the freak injury of 2020 —well, isn’t that what you would dream your draft pick could ultimately become? Given the hit rate of ‘can’t-miss’ QBs at the top of these six drafts — Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky were all top-three picks — why would this risk be worth a salary cap savings that might allow the charge of Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott? Quarterback is absolutely vital, and it is so hard to find a 27-year old QB1 who checks almost all the boxes. I simply cannot understand why so many feel comfortable with this gamble.
According to the great Dane Brugler in his latest rankings, the top two picks seem almost assuredly to be Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. I have examined both closely, and this piece was going to originally be my work on Fields from this past weekend, which I promise will eventually appear here. But to be fair, it was not so impressive that I would give him much thought in Dallas over the current guy; I think he is clearly behind Lawrence, and I think he is a different caliber of player. I think Lawrence would give me some pause to ignore his future for Prescott. Fields would not. But here is the thing: The New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars both seem pretty certain to hold the top two picks in April. They both badly need Lawrence and Fields. I would feel OK placing a bet that those two teams take those two players at the very top of this draft, so you will probably not need to make this decision.
Brugler then has Zack Wilson of BYU at No. 6 on his list and Trey Lance of North Dakota State 11th. Obviously, these options might depend more upon how things develop; where Dallas picks, where their evaluations end up and, frankly, how the Prescott negotiations go.
2) What is my top scenario as it pertains to having a very top draft pick in April of 2021?
This is actually an easy one and perhaps should be the top idea: I would do everything in my power to trade down. Now, to trade down, you have to cheer hard for Jacksonville to win some games, Dallas to lose some games and the planets to align so that Dallas can move into the top two. Otherwise, the odds of a profitable trade down diminish greatly. You need to be high up the list, and you need to have a QB to dangle as ransom for a big trade.
Consider this list:
Tennessee received from Los Angeles for Jared Goff in 2016: Picks 15, 43, 45, 76 and a future first and third. Six top-100 picks!
Cleveland received from Philadelphia for Carson Wentz: Picks 8, 77, 100 and a future first and a second. Five top-100 picks!
San Francisco received from Chicago for Mitch Trubisky (to move up one slot): Picks 3, 67, 111 and a future third rounder.
Buffalo received from Kansas City for Pat Mahomes: Picks 27, 91 and a future first-rounder.
Cleveland received from Houston for DeShaun Watson: Pick 25 and a future first.
Indianapolis received from New York for Sam Darnold: Picks 6, 37, 49 and a future second rounder.
Tampa Bay received from Buffalo for Josh Allen: Picks 12, 53 and 56.
Oakland received from Arizona for Josh Rosen: Picks 15, 79 and 152.
In all of these cases, the team that did not take a QB up high was able to receive between two and six likely starters on rookie contracts. And as you can also see clearly, very few of the players on this list were clearly worth that bounty. You are selling a lottery ticket, and you are selling it for what it might become, not what it is. The “pay any price because they are a quarterback” philosophy is reckless and also profitable for teams that ignore the tractor beam of possibilities.
Where do you get a young quarterback if you don’t have one? Well, there is no really great formula, but the good news is that Dallas has one who has his prime in front of him and seems to want to stay if given a deal he feels is to his liking. And yes, if he wants a four-year deal — because that is industry standard these days — and you want to give him five years and the only difference is that math, give him the deal he wants like you did with Zeke, Amari and others.
3) If there’s no QB worth taking and no trade down, what are the priorities as we start to look at Cowboys draft season?
Let me start by saying that it is really, really early. So try to enjoy football season when it is here and not just football offseason.
But my brief thoughts here — because we have six months for more pontification on these matters, which I will certainly provide —is to always prioritize premium positions, which are quarterbacks, left tackles, pass rushers and shutdown corners. So, yes, I am interested in the Oregon tackle, the many top corners in this draft and difference-makers on the defensive side of the ball. Non-premium positions like guards, centers, running backs, linebackers and safeties are found later on in the draft. I might make exceptions on a few spots provided they are special players on defense, but you have to stop trying to cut corners and start paying a little more for U.S. Prime beef. You will taste the difference. Acquire enough premium players at premium positions, and you will see you are paying the right spots on your roster the most money, and those right spots are the ones closest aligned with making a difference on winning teams. If you take a center, a guard, a running back and a linebacker in the first round, then pay them all of your money and still aren’t good enough, it is possible you might be frustrated at why you never seem as good as the sum total of your players.
Just a thought. In fact, nearly 2,500 words of thoughts about a draft that won’t happen for six months.
And now we return you to our regularly scheduled football season.
By Bob Sturm 1h ago
It’s time to address the sizable elephant in the room. And, unlike Tuesday’s piece, this elephant is largely positive news if it gets solved correctly
It’s a big one, though. At this moment in time, the Dallas Cowboys are on track to achieve their single highest draft position — third or fourth overall, depending on a brief tie-breaker that Dallas is currently on pace to finish on the right side of — since Russell Maryland was a Miami Hurricane about 30 years ago and Dallas selected him first overall. 30 seasons have passed since Russell won the Outland Award, and ironically, the last winner of that same trophy is Penei Sewell, the very large, amazing left tackle from Oregon who is one of the players the Cowboys could easily add if they continue at this level of losing excellence.
I will be honest: As I keep my head down and work on the topics of the day, I have not thought much about the 2021 NFL Draft just yet. My normal path, as you may know, is to spend lots of time on every single Dallas Cowboys play and game throughout the season, and then wander deep into the waters of the draft within a week of the last Cowboys game. There is no offseason, but there is also very little time for me to cover the current Cowboys squad to such an extent AND have a really good handle on the first round of the draft. As a mere mortal, you sort of have to pick one or the other.
But that doesn’t mean you, the valued reader, are going to be very interested in my preview of the upcoming game against Minnesota. If my feedback is any indication, though, you are probably watching out for the terrifying prospect that Dallas might start winning football games again.
Yes, that is right. Because we reward losing in this league with great draft talent, an entire generation of sports fans love to shove it in reverse and lose out to preserve the optimal selection in April. Seldom does a franchise have the ability to both pick third overall and win their division heading into Week 11, but 2020 is pretty wacky. And, yes, Dallas has a real chance of winning the NFC East due to the complete silliness of this four-team group even though the Cowboys only trail the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars for the top pick in a draft people have been pointing towards for a long time — largely due to the man from Clemson who sits at the very top, Trevor Lawrence.
A few days ago, I had a chance to field questions from Cowboys subscribers like you, and you can definitely see there were no queries about dealing with Dalvin Cook on Sunday. Rather, let’s talk about this pick, Bob!
What do you make of Jerry’s comments regarding not being interested in drafting a QB if they are in position to do so? I know he had to say that, but what if they do get a top 3 pick? – Jason A
If the Cowboys end up with a top 5 pick, can you see them taking a QB and signing Dak, let it play out and eventually trading Dak for additional picks? Thanks – Patrick M
If the Cowboys pick top 5, you seem them drafting a QB and forgetting about Dak? – Austin D
Would you draft QB Trevor Lawrence if you had the chance or would you trade the pick for more picks to help the defense? Thanks. – Bob L
I’m on team tank (or just keep doing what you’ve been doing to get a top three pick). That team. So I’m curious what you do there, trade down or stay put and try for the elite player? – Terry S
Well, the people have spoken. At the risk of not having you ready to recognize the Vikings’ blitz patterns and the latest machination of their offensive line, allow me to take a morning and walk through some of the things on my mind with regard to this very rare opportunity for the Cowboys (which is a truly bizarre mental way to navigate the next seven Cowboys games and then a potential franchise-altering opportunity for the entire organization).
First, Dallas’ draft position can be altered quite a bit with a win or two (or seven straight losses). The Jets and Jaguars hold the top two picks, and that matters quite a bit because we have to assume that both are seriously in the market for a quarterback. The Chargers, Dolphins (thank you, Houston!) and Washington are also in the mix to pick early with 2-7 records, but Dallas has that valuable head-to-head loss with Washington. This is a weird way to think about the Thanksgiving rivalry game because we may not fully know what Dallas would do with a top pick, but we can rest assured that Washington is a key player in the QB sweepstakes this spring. On the other hand, we assume the Dolphins and the Chargers are certainly not interested in QB1 after the fine prospects they acquired in 2020.
We should also remember one thing right here. For those of us who value the idea of winning a division title even if it is a really bad one —flags fly forever — while you can definitely find morale and building blocks in beating Philadelphia to a finish line of any distance, we had better at least be aware of this sobering fact: The winner of the division will make the playoffs. In doing so, they could easily lose 15 places in line on the road to the playoffs. In the past, the non-playoff teams have the first 20 picks and then the teams in the postseason are stacked by how far they advance. Tie-breakers revert back to the regular-season record. That would mean that if you win a wild-card round, you could not pick higher than 25th even if you were 5-11 in the regular season. That is a real consideration when you are currently very close to the third overall pick. While we don’t fully know this year’s playoff format thanks to the unique circumstances of the season, we know the playoffs will have at least seven teams per conference, and it could actually be eight, so this is one tentacle of that fallout. But, in all likelihood, the division winner will probably drop about a dozen spots in the draft each round at the very least — and that means losing out on quite a significant caliber of athlete. In general, it is quite a leap of player from best at his position and virtually a flawless prospect to guys who can be great but come accompanied by a great deal of risk.
Now that all of that is on wax, so let’s move to the three biggest ideas I am constantly asked about.
1) What is my interest level in drafting a top-tier quarterback and letting Dak Prescott walk in free agency?
You probably know my short answer: none. I think it is a bad idea, and I have walked through the inaccurate and misleading tropes that suggest that you cannot pay a QB like Dak Prescott and still win a Super Bowl (or even contend for one). This is not true, and has been certainly propped up by Tom Brady never taking a top salary over so many years as well as Russell Wilson winning on a rookie deal. Now even Nick Foles and Pat Mahomes (pre-contract) have won Super Bowls, too. Still, the rising costs of QBs and the evolution of the position’s upper class tells us we are about to have many, many years of QBs winning Super Bowls on top-10 money, and that normalization will be clearly seen. Until then, I advise you to read my study from last spring to understand the clear strawman of this conversation and to get out ahead of what is obviously happening. I honestly can’t believe so many in my industry cannot see this, but I suppose sometimes things have to hit us in the face first.
In regards to the Cowboys’ situation, if you have a 27-year old star QB who has consistently put up both personal stats and team offensive accomplishments, along with a large number of wins and has also proven to have the intangibles to do this particular job without wavering as well as a very well-seen durability that had never shown a crack before the freak injury of 2020 —well, isn’t that what you would dream your draft pick could ultimately become? Given the hit rate of ‘can’t-miss’ QBs at the top of these six drafts — Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky were all top-three picks — why would this risk be worth a salary cap savings that might allow the charge of Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott? Quarterback is absolutely vital, and it is so hard to find a 27-year old QB1 who checks almost all the boxes. I simply cannot understand why so many feel comfortable with this gamble.
According to the great Dane Brugler in his latest rankings, the top two picks seem almost assuredly to be Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. I have examined both closely, and this piece was going to originally be my work on Fields from this past weekend, which I promise will eventually appear here. But to be fair, it was not so impressive that I would give him much thought in Dallas over the current guy; I think he is clearly behind Lawrence, and I think he is a different caliber of player. I think Lawrence would give me some pause to ignore his future for Prescott. Fields would not. But here is the thing: The New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars both seem pretty certain to hold the top two picks in April. They both badly need Lawrence and Fields. I would feel OK placing a bet that those two teams take those two players at the very top of this draft, so you will probably not need to make this decision.
Brugler then has Zack Wilson of BYU at No. 6 on his list and Trey Lance of North Dakota State 11th. Obviously, these options might depend more upon how things develop; where Dallas picks, where their evaluations end up and, frankly, how the Prescott negotiations go.
2) What is my top scenario as it pertains to having a very top draft pick in April of 2021?
This is actually an easy one and perhaps should be the top idea: I would do everything in my power to trade down. Now, to trade down, you have to cheer hard for Jacksonville to win some games, Dallas to lose some games and the planets to align so that Dallas can move into the top two. Otherwise, the odds of a profitable trade down diminish greatly. You need to be high up the list, and you need to have a QB to dangle as ransom for a big trade.
Consider this list:
Tennessee received from Los Angeles for Jared Goff in 2016: Picks 15, 43, 45, 76 and a future first and third. Six top-100 picks!
Cleveland received from Philadelphia for Carson Wentz: Picks 8, 77, 100 and a future first and a second. Five top-100 picks!
San Francisco received from Chicago for Mitch Trubisky (to move up one slot): Picks 3, 67, 111 and a future third rounder.
Buffalo received from Kansas City for Pat Mahomes: Picks 27, 91 and a future first-rounder.
Cleveland received from Houston for DeShaun Watson: Pick 25 and a future first.
Indianapolis received from New York for Sam Darnold: Picks 6, 37, 49 and a future second rounder.
Tampa Bay received from Buffalo for Josh Allen: Picks 12, 53 and 56.
Oakland received from Arizona for Josh Rosen: Picks 15, 79 and 152.
In all of these cases, the team that did not take a QB up high was able to receive between two and six likely starters on rookie contracts. And as you can also see clearly, very few of the players on this list were clearly worth that bounty. You are selling a lottery ticket, and you are selling it for what it might become, not what it is. The “pay any price because they are a quarterback” philosophy is reckless and also profitable for teams that ignore the tractor beam of possibilities.
Where do you get a young quarterback if you don’t have one? Well, there is no really great formula, but the good news is that Dallas has one who has his prime in front of him and seems to want to stay if given a deal he feels is to his liking. And yes, if he wants a four-year deal — because that is industry standard these days — and you want to give him five years and the only difference is that math, give him the deal he wants like you did with Zeke, Amari and others.
3) If there’s no QB worth taking and no trade down, what are the priorities as we start to look at Cowboys draft season?
Let me start by saying that it is really, really early. So try to enjoy football season when it is here and not just football offseason.
But my brief thoughts here — because we have six months for more pontification on these matters, which I will certainly provide —is to always prioritize premium positions, which are quarterbacks, left tackles, pass rushers and shutdown corners. So, yes, I am interested in the Oregon tackle, the many top corners in this draft and difference-makers on the defensive side of the ball. Non-premium positions like guards, centers, running backs, linebackers and safeties are found later on in the draft. I might make exceptions on a few spots provided they are special players on defense, but you have to stop trying to cut corners and start paying a little more for U.S. Prime beef. You will taste the difference. Acquire enough premium players at premium positions, and you will see you are paying the right spots on your roster the most money, and those right spots are the ones closest aligned with making a difference on winning teams. If you take a center, a guard, a running back and a linebacker in the first round, then pay them all of your money and still aren’t good enough, it is possible you might be frustrated at why you never seem as good as the sum total of your players.
Just a thought. In fact, nearly 2,500 words of thoughts about a draft that won’t happen for six months.
And now we return you to our regularly scheduled football season.
Simpleton
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 17,595
He will, QB's always do, although Parsons is a better prospect than Okudah and Thomas who both went top 5 last year, and probably on par with Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons, although given their positions Brown clearly would've been preferable.
He's a perfectly fine top 5 caliber prospect, just not at a position of extreme need, but LB is definitely a position that could use upgrading.
p1_
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2013
- Messages
- 26,772
especially if we give JSmith his walking papers
- Status