Length of TD Rushes
How To Read:
1. In blue, the columns add up to 100%, as this covers all 100 yards of the field.
2. In black, these numbers show more context as 1 yard could be 1-inch or 1.9 yards.
3. Example. 16% of Emmitt’s TDs were 5-9 yards, so 17 TDs. Curtis Martin had 21 TDs (or 25% of his 85 TDs) in the same category.
4. I took the prime years of each RB for a similar sample size.
- Emmitt: 1990 - 1996 (7 seasons, 108 TDs)
- C. Martin: 1995 - 2004 (10 seasons, 85 TDs)
- A. Peterson: 2007 - 2015 (8 seasons (2014 injury), 97 TDs)
- Tomlinson: 2001 - 2006 (6 seasons, 100 TDs)
- B. Sanders: 1989 - 1997 (9 seasons, 95 TDs)
| Emmitt | C. Martin | A. Peterson | Tomlinson | B. Sanders | W. Payton | T. Dorsett | Misc | Misc |
| 1 Yard | 26% | 28% | 29% | 31% | 14% | | | | |
| 1 - 2 Yards | 36% | 45% | 35% | 44% | 21% | | | | |
| 1 - 3 Yards | 49% | 52% | 42% | 52% | 26% | | | | |
| 1 - 4 Yards | 62% | 57% | 49% | 60% | 34% | | | | |
| 5 - 9 | 16% | 25% | 16% | 23% | 15% | | | | |
| 10 - 19 | 8% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 22% | | | | |
| 20 - 29 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 0% | 7% | | | | |
| 30 - 49 | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 8% | | | | |
| 50+ Yards | 5% | 2% | 14% | 6% | 14% | | | | |
Conclusion:
1. See 1 yard, 1-2 yard categories...This shows the misconception that Emmitt Smith enjoyed more than his fair share of short-yardage gimme TDs. Looking at these two categories, he has comparable (and even mostly lower) percentage of short yardage TD runs than Curtis Martin, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Observations:
1. See 1- 4 yards category....it needs to be highlighted Emmitt Smith's percentage jump from 1-3 yard TDs to add the 4-yard TD run (49% ---> 62%). This 13% jump is significantly higher than any other RB....Now, a 4-yard rush from midfield may go untouched with a huge hole, but not from the 4-yard line. A 4-yard TD run is tough slugging through a stacked box. I think this category (Emmitt from 4-yards out) shows where Emmitt proves his greatness and might be a key stat uncovering how the Cowboys were so dominant. Emmitt had 14 TDs from the 4-yard line, whereas 8 TDs (L.T.) was next.
2. Is it Barry vs Emmitt, or should it be Barry vs Adrian Peterson? Barry's captivating running style leads to lots of 'forget the stats' nostalgia by fans, but Adrian Peterson has similar YPA (4.9 w/ Minnesota vs Barry 5.0) with comparable 'shitty team' argument (65 wins, 4 playoffs, 1 NFCC Minnesota vs 64 wins, 5 playoffs, 1 NFCC Detroit) with 'shitty coach' argument (Brad Childress/Leslie Frazier) and 'shitty QB' argument (Tarvaris Jackson/Christian Ponder). As for this Rushing TDs exercise, Barry Sanders is thought of as a home run threat, but Adrian Peterson is just as much as a home run threat with both RBs hitting 14% of their TDs from behind midfield. Note that this study has Peterson and Barry Sanders both showing essentially same number of TDs sample size (97 vs 95 TDs, respectively).
3. The biggest outlier is Barry Sanders from 10 - 19 yards out, scoring 22% of his TDs, more than doubling the next RB.
4. Barry is noticeably lower than the rest with TDS 1-4 yards out. This isn’t because he’s a home run threat, either. Removing 13 of his 30+ TDs (for 82 TDs total), his 1-4 yards TD only jumps from 34% to 39%, still 10% lower than the next closest RB.
NOTE: This exercise is basically sufficient by itself only to show that Emmitt Smith didn't score gimme TDs at a rate higher than other RBs. This exercise by itself isn’t sufficient to say that Barry was a poor short-yardage TD runner (although these stats wouldn't disprove it, either), as this chart doesn’t consider number of attempts (ie conversion %) or how many TDs the Lions otherwise scored from 1-4 yards out. Furthermore, this only looks at TD runs and non-TD runs are excluded, so these stats start losing relevance as we go further away from 1 yard runs, as there could be many 15-yard runs from the 16-yard line that wouldn't be considered here.
