Pregame Thoughts Week 5- Turn-Around Thursday!
Yes, it is a trap game! But, not sure Jalon Daniels and Winless Tampa Bay can set one.
Bob Sturm
This one is going to be short. We spent a lot of time this week on the remarkable Houston game and it has caused us to shortchange the game preview. Please forgive.
We have about 60 minutes to put on the clock and we will give you what we got.
The first thing that on my mind here is that in the last few seasons, this team has sort of stunk in primetime home games. Since that wild win against Detroit late in the 2023 season, I bet you didn’t know that Dallas has been 1-4-1 in six primetime home games.
Not great!
That is 1-1-1 on Sunday night, 0-3 on Monday night, and all of them at the Death Star. For whatever reason, they have been flat in these and most of them have been a very poor offensive effort – other than that tie against Green Bay.
And I guess that is the theme in this one. The offense cannot afford to show up flat.
Yes, we plan on making this about the offense again. They have been incredible. They lead the NFL in points per drive. And they must not get complacent with this one.
The goal is 31 points again.
These are my Pregame Thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– This is a classic trap game. Emotional road games on both sides with Baltimore and Houston on one side and Green Bay and Philadelphia on the other. But, right in the middle is this lone home game where Dallas must react well to a short week with an empty emotional tank and sore bodies. There is a path to an easy win, but there is an equal path to a stressful night. That sort of stress is found with turnovers. If Dak and the offense play a clean game, they win by two scores. But, we know that these games seem to elicit unforced errors. That would be bad.
Let’s just look at the multiple giveaway games. Two turnovers or more since the start of 2024, Dallas is 2-12. That is a sign of clear and obvious connection. This team is not good enough to survive even one giveaway per half. Even the two games they won were incredibly fortuitous.
So, objective No. 1 – take care of the rock. Don’t force the ball and don’t be careless. That always applies, but this game says the only path for Tampa Bay is if Dallas is very reckless.
We put Tyler Smith back in the lineup, but will the Cowboys? I hope to see big 73 back out there, but we can easily make the case that they should keep TJ Bass in that spot for one more game and give Tyler 10 more days.
But, I see Vita Vea in the middle and this is the side of the ball where Tampa is certainly not too bad. That defensive front is really fascinating with Rueben Bain set to return from his absence. Bain was the slider in this draft that fell to Tampa after Dallas grabbed Caleb Downs. Bain is a dude, for sure, and his Sturm 60 profile will have to do in place of our normal video pieces.
https://bobsturm.substack.com/p/2026-draft-profile-miami-edge-rueben
As you can see below, the green is all over this matchup with Dallas continuing to look great. But, isn’t that explosive number interesting?
This amazing offense only is 26th in the NFL in explosive plays! How can that be? Well, the quick theory is that Dallas has been protecting its tackles. Maybe, we are going to see a growing confidence and allow for some bigger shots more often.
Take care of the ball, don’t expect to run against these guys, and get your 30 or 31 points. Don’t force things, but take care of your business.
OK, let’s flip it.
When Tampa Bay has the ball:
– Tampa has strengths where the Cowboys have weaknesses. They have some of the best Wide Receivers in the game, but now they are playing without a QB that can do anything about it. The Tampa wide outs are a threat and we should expect a game-plan of quick outs to get them the ball and hope they can generate offense in space and force Dallas to prove it can tackle. Dallas must be ready for this and to generate pressure and containment on a young QB who can move.
There are few secrets in this league and the ones that are disappear when you have a QB injury. So, Dallas needs to make sure they keep Jalon Daniels in check. He played a lot of football for Kansas and had his share of excellent days. But, last Sunday in his debut against Green Bay, we saw almost nothing downfield an when he tried it, there were interceptions. And it has been so long since we last saw an interception that we are having trouble remembering what that was like.
The Dallas Cowboys’ last interception was on December 14, 2025, in a 26–34 Week 15 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams caught a batted pass from J.J. McCarthy.
That was the team’s only pick that day. Dallas has gone seven straight games without an interception since then—the rest of the 2025 season (Chargers, Commanders, Giants) plus the first four games of 2026 (Giants, Commanders, Ravens, Texans). That is the longest active streak in the NFL, because
the Jets just snapped the previous longest streak with a pick after 20 straight games without one.
Oof.
So, yeah, as much as we fear Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and even rookie Ted Hurst, this QB will be playing his first-ever NFL game in prime time and on the road. He looked uncomfortable at home for a noon start on Sunday, so making him uncomfortable should be the goal for his guys up front.
That means, quite simply, whip some tail up front. Plug up the interior runs and force Tampa in to 3rd and long. Then, keep the vibes going on 3rd down – I swear, they have really improved even though you can see them at 31st below – and then get stops and even takeaways. Tonight should be a prime opportunity to get out of the red.
But, yes, on that side of the ball, it is a massive weak vs weak showdown. May Dallas not let anything go wrong against a QB who should not be able to drive the ball much at all.
PREDICTION:
Ok, I said it would be short. Sorry about that, but I want to get this published.
This is a trap game, a let-down game, and all of that. But, Dallas should be able to take care of business and then reward themselves with a 10-day break before Wisconsin.
I think they will. Dallas 30, Tampa Bay 17.
Coach Campo?
