... We don't know the details of how this will happen, but the expectation within the Big 12 is that BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF will be part of the league in time for the 2023 football season. BYU, as it is an independent, could be in the Big 12 as early as next season. The meetings and asks have all taken place. This is imminent.
... There was some opposition of varying degrees to Houston's addition to the Big 12. Ultimately, while the vast data they all poured over indicated that Houston was a clear No. 4 among the four soon-to-be additions, it also showed a massive drop-off between Houston and any other possible option. There was a clear gap after those top four and it was conveyed that adding four was needed which gets me to my next point.
... The Big 12 absolutely expects to maintain its Power Five status with these additions. And this is key as that wasn’t going to happen without the addition of Houston and adding four schools total. I’ll admit to being very curious about this myself. I know the CFP and the NCAA are both involved in deciding/governing that. Again, very fair to have questions about this aspect ... I did too.
... From Texas Tech's perspective, it felt like it had to support expansion in order to ensure it has a spot in the Power Five. The fear was, if the Big 12 fell apart, Texas Tech would be closer to landing in the American Athletic Conference than in the Pac-12 or SEC. I would expect Texas Tech to continue to monitor those two leagues in the coming years as tv contract negotiations begin. At the onset of this, I think Texas Tech’s preference was to forge their own path and go West but I’m not certain that is their ideal preference anymore. In a perfect world, I’m sure they’d love to join the SEC but while I won’t totally dismiss that as an option it is unlikely. So then what? I guess that is where we are now, expansion while maintaining the option to take any phone call that comes your way.
... While we have discussed BYU as a football-only member, we now gather the expectation is BYU is expected to join as a full member. The Cougars will retain some of their third-tier rights and may not receive a full revenue distribution share.
... Once they join, these new members will begin with a partial distribution share that increases in small increments every year.
... I won’t be surprised at all going forward if the Texas Tech athletic department begins receiving a financial subsidy from the actual university and the same can be said about the state government funneling more money to Lubbock too. I’m unclear on the numbers involved but there is some thought they could end up making very close to or even more money overall than they were before. We’ll see as plenty on that front still needs to play out.
... One thing I’d file away, the Big 12 has already had discussions with the SEC about a scheduling alliance. I think long term, you can expect that as long as the Big 10, ACC and Pac 12 are working together on an alliance, the same can be said about the SEC and Big 12.
… As far as timetable, these potential new members are expected to file an application as early as next week and it would be voted on soon thereafter and the vote would be unanimous in support of adding all four members.
… While Houston is a clear winner in this, there is some thought that schools like SMU will suffer some with the AAC taking such a big hit and being surrounded by Power 5 programs with the lines becoming very clear on Power 5 versus not.
... This is a lot to process but this is imminent. Prepare yourself accordingly. If your glass is half full and you ultimately wanted Texas Tech to be in a Power Five league, it sounds like you'll get your wish.