Macro view of things, we're in good shape if we can split these next two and the defense can take a few steps forward.
I had us losing to the Giants and beating the Skins, then splitting the Ravens/Houston. I had us beating Baltimore and losing to Houston, thinking Baltimore would struggle a bit with a new staff while Houston's defense would set a very high floor, although now I think it's more likely we beat Houston who has struggled a good bit.
Split these two, we're 2-2, and then there's a nice long stretch of mostly average at best opponents with Tampa, Green Bay, Philly, Arizona, Indianapolis, SF, Tennessee and then Philadelphia again. Obviously SF isn't average, and Philly may or may not be depending on the day, but that's a 8 game stretch where we could easily go 6-2, no worse than 5-3 if this is a decent team whatsoever.
Obviously if we're 8-4 we'd be in very nice shape and certain to finish no worse than 10-7, with 11-6 probably more likely. Even at 7-5 we'd still be in good shape to get to 10-7, we'd probably just have to win the final 3 (vs. Jax, vs. NYG, at Washington) unless we can somehow steal one on the road vs. Seattle or the Rams.