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Decoding McCarthy, Wildcard - Slow Start Death
Cowboys season ends early because their entire team – led by their QB – started slow.
BOB STURM
JAN 16, 2024
There are so many ways to evaluate the Dallas Cowboys' offense in 2023, and most of them will be returned from the process as "excellent" and "positive" because for most of the year, they were excellent and positive to the success of the team.
We stated that the offense was improved, and the QB played the best season of his career.
And nobody cares.
That is why, in the aftermath of this most disappointing result that stopped any dreams for this postseason dead in their tracks (before they even really got to the good parts), nobody wants to hear about season numbers. Nobody wants to hear about personal stats, team season numbers, and even All-Pro recognition.
Essentially, nobody wants to even entertain the evidence of the "total body of work" because why do we play these sports? Why do we go through the year cycle of a season?
"The regular season is where you make your money. The playoffs are where you make your legacy."
I swear we have spent years talking about Tony Romo and Dak Prescott and why they don't play their best in the postseason. I will leave Romo to the side in this discussion because I am not here to muddy those waters. But, there were two major issues with his body of work. One, that he and his teams didn't make the playoffs in consecutive years after 2006-2007 and, two, when he got those three brief chances in the divisional rounds, easily his best performance was his 2014 at Lambeau (The Dez catch game) where the Cowboys only had him throw 19 passes for less than 200 yards. The other two chances were bad all around, and the team was dismissed all three times.
Romo usually looked like Romo in the postseason, but by 2009 his playoff runs should have just been getting started. Instead, once he hit his 30th birthday, he would only get one more playoff chance in his entire career, despite playing seven more seasons.
But, we aren't here to talk about Tony Romo.
We are here to talk about Dak Prescott.
Again, on Sunday, with the season hanging in the balance (as well as the decision to cement his spot as this team's QB1 until 2028 or so), Dak and his offense started painfully slow.
In a game where one team started fast and scored 27 points in the first 28 minutes, the home team had managed zero.
Once you are down 27-0, we get a pretty distinct feeling that the rest is going to be against prevent defenses and offer some very nice stat-padding.
Four drives that went: punt, interception, punt, interception. The fifth drive managed a touchdown right before halftime, but even that one had a pass from Dak Prescott that Packers LB De’Vondre Campbell had in the hands and probably should have finished the interception hat-trick.
The history books will offer Dak Prescott enthusiasts a chance to look at his stat line and see he passed for 403 yards and ran for 45 more and defend his performance.
People who read this space know I love the guy and defend him frequently. But, I also try to be fair. And I think the only fair evaluation of Dak Prescott’s Sunday performance is thus: he was very poor.
It might have been the worst half of football that he is capable of at the end of the best season he has played.
Yes, there is more to football than the QB, but it is like we say in the NHL about goaltending. QB play is 50% of a playoff game - unless it is bad. Then its 100%.
Here is the revised version with corrections for spelling and grammar:
So, why single out Prescott when so much else stunk? Well, this is the 4th playoff game in his last five starts that Dallas has lost. This is also the 4th playoff game in his last five starts where he has failed to have even 90 yards passing in the first half. Also, this is the 4th playoff game in the last five starts where Dallas has seven points or less at the half and is trailing.
Against the Rams in 2018: 8-13 for 87 yards. Dallas was down 20-7 at the half.
Against the 49ers in 2021: 9-16 for 89 yards. Dallas was down 16-7 at the half.
Against the 49ers in 2022: 12-16 for 81 yards and 2 interceptions. Dallas was down 9-6 at the half.
And Sunday, against Green Bay: 13-21 for 87 yards and 2 interceptions. Dallas was down 27-7 at the half.
The final stat line of 41 for 60 for 403 yards and 3 touchdowns is great. But, the final stat line has very little to do with the actual game, and that is why we are back in this exact spot again. I didn't even mention the 2016 Green Bay playoff game where Dallas spotted the Packers a 21-3 lead before roaring back.
We have quite a pattern.
What am I saying? Well, here it is. Dak Prescott plays differently in playoff games, and it seems like the common element of each of those games is that the Cowboys are often behind and in big trouble. Could the defense play better? Could the coaching be better? Could the receivers be better? The offensive line? Yes.
And when they all come up for contracts, we will talk about that, too. But, we can't help but ask one of the highest-paid players in the NFL the obvious question: In the biggest of games, are you a huge part of the problem or a huge part of the solution?
People speculate why this is, and others wonder if clutch even exists. I am here to tell you that the postseason is the pinnacle of nerves for these guys, and some players look completely unfazed. Others look like they have the weight of the world and maybe even the weight of 10,000 days of Cowboys' angst on their shoulders. And it appears to crush him in these moments.
Then, by halftime, the disposition seems to change. But by then, it also seems too late to save the game.
I don't have a solution for you today, but I feel like we have discovered a consistent problem. And as unlikely as it is, this is a true fatal flaw.
Knowing how good he normally is and how stuck they are with their QB situation, that was a depressing passage to type.
With that in mind, here is our weekly data box that flatters!
510 yards! 37 first downs! Ten third-down conversions and four of five in the red zone! You must have crushed your enemy! What beautiful numbers.
Well, as you know, these are incredibly hollow. It reminds me of Thanksgiving Day 2012 when Romo had one of his best stat days ever, but it was mostly because Washington was up 28-3 at the half and the final 30 minutes was one big 2-minute drill. Here are the actual halftime stats in the same format:
Now, you see it. And yes, the first half matters quite a bit. Fast starts, get a lead, all that stuff that Dallas does horribly in the post-season.
Here is another way of looking at it.
Below, find the offensive groupings. Please know that all 2-minute drill offense is in 11 personnel. So, to see almost everything on that column should not surprise us. That is all they did from 27-0 on.
But, above, look how poor everything else was. This is what bothers me about the Cowboys tight end situation. Jake Ferguson has been quite a find, but for the most part, nothing involving multiple tight ends works and it has been that way for some time. On Sunday, they tried five plays with multiple tight ends and gained three yards.
Five plays for a total of three yards.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
Green Bay did a masterful job of not giving up explosive plays. If Dak is going to throw 60 times and only get three plays of 20+ yards, they will take that all day.
They mixed coverages, but Dak also left meat on the bone on those crucial moments in the game and there were opportunities downfield. But, he just looked nervy.
As we said on, Green Bay doesn’t blitz much, but they did bring it 11 times on Sunday and it generated two sacks and one interception. They will feel great about those proceeds.
This has been very Dak-centric. Some of you will be happy with that and some will not. But, I do think this is the last time we will be doing Decoding McCarthy and they were tied at the hip in 2023. The progress was remarkable and Dak is a better QB than he has ever been.
But when coaches get fired, they have a story to tell those in their inner circle, and I would imagine Mike is pondering the Jekyll and Hyde differences in QB1 in the moments of truth. We will always have his precision work in Tampa Bay last year, which was the exception to this 5-playoff game sample. Maybe Monday Night Football was the difference, or maybe he felt no pressure because everyone had left Dallas for dead in that one.
Regardless, pressure busts pipes, and I wonder if the pressure of Dallas Cowboys playoff demons has crushed the QB1 from being able to be the best version of himself when all the chips are down.
I bet Mike wonders if he will be invited back because of it, too.
A real bummer.
Now, on to the film study.
FILM STUDY
I certainly don’t want to belabor much of this. The horse is ready to be lowered into the ground so we will only pick the plays of huge first-half importance and then move along.
1Q - 4:07 - 3rd and 8 - GB 49 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to C.Lamb.
First big third down of the game. This one is really interesting because we have seen them hit this throw before. 3rd and 8, and the Packers are in a Cover 4 with split safeties. It is tough to say, but I think if they hit this, CeeDee might split those safeties and score. This is precision stuff, so if CeeDee flattens his route more, it is a catch, but if he tries to angle it between the safeties, then Dak needs to put a little more on the pass. Remember, it is 3rd and 8, so the top priority is to move the sticks, so I see what Dak is thinking, but CeeDee sees the end zone, and I see what he is thinking. The point is I am not sure the throw was poor, and I am not sure Lamb is wrong. But, this is a big miss and ends the first drive. As you know, down 7-0, this is when everyone shifted in their seats with uncomfortable tension, and it is only Drive No. 1.
1Q - 0:47 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 13 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by J.Alexander at DAL 19.
The next third down is a killer. Cover 1, and we have a route combo with Lamb on the corner route with Cooks on a return route underneath. It is 3rd and 5, so I get why Dak is worried about moving the chains, but this feels like the difference between Week 12 Prescott and the playoffs. I feel like in November, he sees Lamb on the corner uncovering and takes that 20 yards all day. But, in the playoffs, he is choosing the easier throw and overthinks it because Cooks vs. Jaire Alexander in tight spaces is not terribly advantageous. The footwork and timing are the same for either throw, and you can see Dak can see both options because the design is sound. But, he chooses the short one, Jaire overpowers Cooks (and maybe commits a penalty in doing so, but playoffs) and intercepts this pass inside the Cowboys 20. Just a killer outcome, and we could argue it is because they were trying to be too careful.
2Q - 10:12 - 3rd and 5 - GB 36 - D.Prescott sacked at GB 42 for -6 yards (K.Nixon).
Third drive and another third down at the edge of field-goal range. Again, on the left is a Lamb/Ferguson combo where Ferguson is on the corner and the route is there, but Dak bailed out and looked uncharacteristically nervy in doing so. I wrote about it yesterday.
Again, easy from here, but Dak has Ferguson and doesn’t pull the trigger. Then he sees Nixon closing and could just throw it out of bounds to take a field goal. I know 14-3 isn’t great, but it is better than 20-0, which happens partly from this decision to not just do the smart thing in front of you. These details matter.
And now, the play that probably ended an era.
2Q - 2:00 - 2nd and 2 - GB 40 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by D.Savage at GB 36. D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Again from yesterday:
This angle shows the safety on the left hash. The detail here in slow motion is easy to see if you pause it at :10 because Savage shows Dak he is inside Cooks. This is the illusion of coverage and the moment Dak sees green he moves to Lamb. Savage is trying to fool him and the moment his left foot hits the ground, the trap is set. He heads to Lamb and jumps the route perfectly. The Cowboys were fooled and we assume it probably is because this is what Dallas loves to do – feed the studs. A trap was set (we saw the Giants do this) and Dak set it off.
Just a real killer.
2Q - 0:23 - 1st and 10 - GB 11 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to J.Ferguson (D.Campbell).
Right before halftime there was another moment of danger. This was not scored as a turnover worthy play by PFF, but I disagree.
Campbell got this throw in both hands and this probably should have been the third interception. At 27-0, the football gods cut Dak a little slack, but this ball to Ferguson was nearly a pick, too.
2Q - 0:02 - 2nd and Goal - GB 1 - D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
And then finally they score on the final play of the half, the classic triple option goal-line play that might be impossible to defend. Dak can give to Pollard or keep. Then rollout and run or hit Ferguson who can either be his lead blocker or his target. There is no good way to deal with this as a defense.
So there you have it. A painfully slow start and the grave was dug. Down multiple scores for most the game is no way to live for Dallas and we saw that several times this year and throughout the playoff drought of the last decade.
They simply must find a solution and it starts – in my opinion – with the QB’s play.
Cowboys season ends early because their entire team – led by their QB – started slow.
BOB STURM
JAN 16, 2024
There are so many ways to evaluate the Dallas Cowboys' offense in 2023, and most of them will be returned from the process as "excellent" and "positive" because for most of the year, they were excellent and positive to the success of the team.
We stated that the offense was improved, and the QB played the best season of his career.
And nobody cares.
That is why, in the aftermath of this most disappointing result that stopped any dreams for this postseason dead in their tracks (before they even really got to the good parts), nobody wants to hear about season numbers. Nobody wants to hear about personal stats, team season numbers, and even All-Pro recognition.
Essentially, nobody wants to even entertain the evidence of the "total body of work" because why do we play these sports? Why do we go through the year cycle of a season?
"The regular season is where you make your money. The playoffs are where you make your legacy."
I swear we have spent years talking about Tony Romo and Dak Prescott and why they don't play their best in the postseason. I will leave Romo to the side in this discussion because I am not here to muddy those waters. But, there were two major issues with his body of work. One, that he and his teams didn't make the playoffs in consecutive years after 2006-2007 and, two, when he got those three brief chances in the divisional rounds, easily his best performance was his 2014 at Lambeau (The Dez catch game) where the Cowboys only had him throw 19 passes for less than 200 yards. The other two chances were bad all around, and the team was dismissed all three times.
Romo usually looked like Romo in the postseason, but by 2009 his playoff runs should have just been getting started. Instead, once he hit his 30th birthday, he would only get one more playoff chance in his entire career, despite playing seven more seasons.
But, we aren't here to talk about Tony Romo.
We are here to talk about Dak Prescott.
Again, on Sunday, with the season hanging in the balance (as well as the decision to cement his spot as this team's QB1 until 2028 or so), Dak and his offense started painfully slow.
In a game where one team started fast and scored 27 points in the first 28 minutes, the home team had managed zero.
Once you are down 27-0, we get a pretty distinct feeling that the rest is going to be against prevent defenses and offer some very nice stat-padding.
Four drives that went: punt, interception, punt, interception. The fifth drive managed a touchdown right before halftime, but even that one had a pass from Dak Prescott that Packers LB De’Vondre Campbell had in the hands and probably should have finished the interception hat-trick.
The history books will offer Dak Prescott enthusiasts a chance to look at his stat line and see he passed for 403 yards and ran for 45 more and defend his performance.
People who read this space know I love the guy and defend him frequently. But, I also try to be fair. And I think the only fair evaluation of Dak Prescott’s Sunday performance is thus: he was very poor.
It might have been the worst half of football that he is capable of at the end of the best season he has played.
Yes, there is more to football than the QB, but it is like we say in the NHL about goaltending. QB play is 50% of a playoff game - unless it is bad. Then its 100%.
Here is the revised version with corrections for spelling and grammar:
So, why single out Prescott when so much else stunk? Well, this is the 4th playoff game in his last five starts that Dallas has lost. This is also the 4th playoff game in his last five starts where he has failed to have even 90 yards passing in the first half. Also, this is the 4th playoff game in the last five starts where Dallas has seven points or less at the half and is trailing.
Against the Rams in 2018: 8-13 for 87 yards. Dallas was down 20-7 at the half.
Against the 49ers in 2021: 9-16 for 89 yards. Dallas was down 16-7 at the half.
Against the 49ers in 2022: 12-16 for 81 yards and 2 interceptions. Dallas was down 9-6 at the half.
And Sunday, against Green Bay: 13-21 for 87 yards and 2 interceptions. Dallas was down 27-7 at the half.
The final stat line of 41 for 60 for 403 yards and 3 touchdowns is great. But, the final stat line has very little to do with the actual game, and that is why we are back in this exact spot again. I didn't even mention the 2016 Green Bay playoff game where Dallas spotted the Packers a 21-3 lead before roaring back.
We have quite a pattern.
What am I saying? Well, here it is. Dak Prescott plays differently in playoff games, and it seems like the common element of each of those games is that the Cowboys are often behind and in big trouble. Could the defense play better? Could the coaching be better? Could the receivers be better? The offensive line? Yes.
And when they all come up for contracts, we will talk about that, too. But, we can't help but ask one of the highest-paid players in the NFL the obvious question: In the biggest of games, are you a huge part of the problem or a huge part of the solution?
People speculate why this is, and others wonder if clutch even exists. I am here to tell you that the postseason is the pinnacle of nerves for these guys, and some players look completely unfazed. Others look like they have the weight of the world and maybe even the weight of 10,000 days of Cowboys' angst on their shoulders. And it appears to crush him in these moments.
Then, by halftime, the disposition seems to change. But by then, it also seems too late to save the game.
I don't have a solution for you today, but I feel like we have discovered a consistent problem. And as unlikely as it is, this is a true fatal flaw.
Knowing how good he normally is and how stuck they are with their QB situation, that was a depressing passage to type.
With that in mind, here is our weekly data box that flatters!
510 yards! 37 first downs! Ten third-down conversions and four of five in the red zone! You must have crushed your enemy! What beautiful numbers.
Well, as you know, these are incredibly hollow. It reminds me of Thanksgiving Day 2012 when Romo had one of his best stat days ever, but it was mostly because Washington was up 28-3 at the half and the final 30 minutes was one big 2-minute drill. Here are the actual halftime stats in the same format:
Now, you see it. And yes, the first half matters quite a bit. Fast starts, get a lead, all that stuff that Dallas does horribly in the post-season.
Here is another way of looking at it.
Below, find the offensive groupings. Please know that all 2-minute drill offense is in 11 personnel. So, to see almost everything on that column should not surprise us. That is all they did from 27-0 on.
But, above, look how poor everything else was. This is what bothers me about the Cowboys tight end situation. Jake Ferguson has been quite a find, but for the most part, nothing involving multiple tight ends works and it has been that way for some time. On Sunday, they tried five plays with multiple tight ends and gained three yards.
Five plays for a total of three yards.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
Green Bay did a masterful job of not giving up explosive plays. If Dak is going to throw 60 times and only get three plays of 20+ yards, they will take that all day.
They mixed coverages, but Dak also left meat on the bone on those crucial moments in the game and there were opportunities downfield. But, he just looked nervy.
As we said on, Green Bay doesn’t blitz much, but they did bring it 11 times on Sunday and it generated two sacks and one interception. They will feel great about those proceeds.
This has been very Dak-centric. Some of you will be happy with that and some will not. But, I do think this is the last time we will be doing Decoding McCarthy and they were tied at the hip in 2023. The progress was remarkable and Dak is a better QB than he has ever been.
But when coaches get fired, they have a story to tell those in their inner circle, and I would imagine Mike is pondering the Jekyll and Hyde differences in QB1 in the moments of truth. We will always have his precision work in Tampa Bay last year, which was the exception to this 5-playoff game sample. Maybe Monday Night Football was the difference, or maybe he felt no pressure because everyone had left Dallas for dead in that one.
Regardless, pressure busts pipes, and I wonder if the pressure of Dallas Cowboys playoff demons has crushed the QB1 from being able to be the best version of himself when all the chips are down.
I bet Mike wonders if he will be invited back because of it, too.
A real bummer.
Now, on to the film study.
FILM STUDY
I certainly don’t want to belabor much of this. The horse is ready to be lowered into the ground so we will only pick the plays of huge first-half importance and then move along.
1Q - 4:07 - 3rd and 8 - GB 49 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to C.Lamb.
First big third down of the game. This one is really interesting because we have seen them hit this throw before. 3rd and 8, and the Packers are in a Cover 4 with split safeties. It is tough to say, but I think if they hit this, CeeDee might split those safeties and score. This is precision stuff, so if CeeDee flattens his route more, it is a catch, but if he tries to angle it between the safeties, then Dak needs to put a little more on the pass. Remember, it is 3rd and 8, so the top priority is to move the sticks, so I see what Dak is thinking, but CeeDee sees the end zone, and I see what he is thinking. The point is I am not sure the throw was poor, and I am not sure Lamb is wrong. But, this is a big miss and ends the first drive. As you know, down 7-0, this is when everyone shifted in their seats with uncomfortable tension, and it is only Drive No. 1.
1Q - 0:47 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 13 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by J.Alexander at DAL 19.
The next third down is a killer. Cover 1, and we have a route combo with Lamb on the corner route with Cooks on a return route underneath. It is 3rd and 5, so I get why Dak is worried about moving the chains, but this feels like the difference between Week 12 Prescott and the playoffs. I feel like in November, he sees Lamb on the corner uncovering and takes that 20 yards all day. But, in the playoffs, he is choosing the easier throw and overthinks it because Cooks vs. Jaire Alexander in tight spaces is not terribly advantageous. The footwork and timing are the same for either throw, and you can see Dak can see both options because the design is sound. But, he chooses the short one, Jaire overpowers Cooks (and maybe commits a penalty in doing so, but playoffs) and intercepts this pass inside the Cowboys 20. Just a killer outcome, and we could argue it is because they were trying to be too careful.
2Q - 10:12 - 3rd and 5 - GB 36 - D.Prescott sacked at GB 42 for -6 yards (K.Nixon).
Third drive and another third down at the edge of field-goal range. Again, on the left is a Lamb/Ferguson combo where Ferguson is on the corner and the route is there, but Dak bailed out and looked uncharacteristically nervy in doing so. I wrote about it yesterday.
END ZONE
Again, easy from here, but Dak has Ferguson and doesn’t pull the trigger. Then he sees Nixon closing and could just throw it out of bounds to take a field goal. I know 14-3 isn’t great, but it is better than 20-0, which happens partly from this decision to not just do the smart thing in front of you. These details matter.
And now, the play that probably ended an era.
2Q - 2:00 - 2nd and 2 - GB 40 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by D.Savage at GB 36. D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Again from yesterday:
END ZONE
This angle shows the safety on the left hash. The detail here in slow motion is easy to see if you pause it at :10 because Savage shows Dak he is inside Cooks. This is the illusion of coverage and the moment Dak sees green he moves to Lamb. Savage is trying to fool him and the moment his left foot hits the ground, the trap is set. He heads to Lamb and jumps the route perfectly. The Cowboys were fooled and we assume it probably is because this is what Dallas loves to do – feed the studs. A trap was set (we saw the Giants do this) and Dak set it off.
Just a real killer.
2Q - 0:23 - 1st and 10 - GB 11 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to J.Ferguson (D.Campbell).
Right before halftime there was another moment of danger. This was not scored as a turnover worthy play by PFF, but I disagree.
Campbell got this throw in both hands and this probably should have been the third interception. At 27-0, the football gods cut Dak a little slack, but this ball to Ferguson was nearly a pick, too.
2Q - 0:02 - 2nd and Goal - GB 1 - D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
And then finally they score on the final play of the half, the classic triple option goal-line play that might be impossible to defend. Dak can give to Pollard or keep. Then rollout and run or hit Ferguson who can either be his lead blocker or his target. There is no good way to deal with this as a defense.
So there you have it. A painfully slow start and the grave was dug. Down multiple scores for most the game is no way to live for Dallas and we saw that several times this year and throughout the playoff drought of the last decade.
They simply must find a solution and it starts – in my opinion – with the QB’s play.
