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Friday Riffing: Previewing Cowboys-Rams; Dak’s slump; how good is the Dallas O-line, really?
By Bob Sturm 36m ago
139 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 51 days until Super Bowl 54 in Miami and only two days until the 3:25 pm Week 15 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium…
335 days. Roughly 92% of a calendar year has passed since these two teams last met.
It was a rather crisp and cool night at the LA Coliseum, as one side was on its way to the Super Bowl and the other team — the one you care about — was sent into another offseason of discontent.
For a team trying to shake the feelings of being run over by Buffalo and Chicago, with both teams employing a similar blueprint, I suspect the Rams are not the team you were hoping to face to break the cycle. See if this sounds familiar:
The 2018 Rams-Cowboys playoff game featured the following attributes consistent with this current Dallas funk:
The Rams ran for a ridiculous 273 yards on an equally ridiculous 48 carries. Yes, the Dallas offense was supposed to control the ball and play keep away, but the defense allowed multiple first downs on all six Rams drives into the middle of the third quarter. All six of those drives ended in points, except for the long field goal attempt at the end of the half. In other words, as the Rams put up drives of 68, 70, 76, 64, 29, and 48 yards to take a 23-7 lead – with barely a memorable pass anywhere to be found – the Cowboys were beaten in the most elementary way possible, with run after run after run.
I suppose it is possible you decided to read this piece to fill you with courage heading into Sunday’s contest, but let’s start with this basic premise: The Cowboys picked the wrong opponent to right the ship if last year’s matchup is any indication whatsoever.
That said, this is the NFL — and the Rams do have a number of different pieces on both sides of the ball. So let’s take a measured look at a game that is vital to the Rams as they try to sneak through the back door of a crowded playoff room (NFC East aside).
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
One thing we know is that the Rams think this is their window. The high-end contracts will not sustain the middle of the roster much longer, so while they feel like they can absorb the costs of Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler and those receivers, they are going all-in. And that explains the massive payment they sent Jacksonville to acquire the great Jalen Ramsey to play corner for them for the remainder of his rookie deal, which expires in 2020. In sending the Jaguars their 2020 and 2021 first-round picks as well as a fourth-rounder (which makes one wonder what could have made that negotiation stall beyond the two first-round selections) we see a Rams team that had no interest in folding their tents just because they were third in a four-team division. They looked lost when the Ravens were destroying them on Monday Night Football a few weeks back, but they keep scrambling, fighting and hoping for help on the way in.
But now that they have Jalen Ramsey instead of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at corner, the defense has changed a bit. First, take a look at how we think they will line up on Sunday in nickel (actually, dime in their case) to counter the Cowboys’ 11 personnel:
We should also point out that the Rams were very fortunate that several teams passed on the safety that I loved this year in the draft — Taylor Rapp from Washington — as he has been pressed into service since they lost their starter, John Johnson, right about the time of their trade with Jacksonville. Not to name names, but here is a brief look at the teams right above them which might have needed an impactful safety (courtesy of Wikipedia):
I know many people wanted Virginia’s Juan Thornhill more (very possibly Dallas), but apparently the Rams agreed with me. (Granted, Kansas City seems very happy with Thornhill.) Rapp was my highest rated safety last spring and it is no surprise that he and Ramsey have changed their defense. Here are two things to consider about the new-look Rams defense since the move:
The incredible element of this Rams defense is that they do not give up any big plays. They are No. 1 in fewest explosive plays, which pairs very well with being #1 with most offensive explosive plays. Troy Hill has been very good for them, and that defensive line has proven to really be something. The Rams have surrounded Aaron Donald with a number of nice edge rushers and athletic forces which are tough to deal with when one of them gets singled up against a weak link. They can now get after it with just about anyone.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Aaron Donald vs Xavier Su’a-Filo
Perhaps I don’t even have to explain the issues Aaron Donald causes with top guards, let alone guards who are best as top reserves. In case you were wondering if he is still the most unstoppable force in the universe, he still leads all defensive tackles in the NFL in sacks and all players in the NFL in tackles for loss. He is ridiculous and he should be able to not only occupy XSF all day, but Travis Frederick, too. Of course, that then means everyone else gets singled up. Dante Fowler, Michael Brockers, and Clay Matthews will have their moments.
Now, let’s flip this around to the somewhat inconsistent 2019 Rams offense.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
The biggest issue has been the season-long offensive line issues. Remember, in 2017 and 2018, they never missed a start along their line. That continuity was pretty amazing and perhaps undersold. This, of course, started in the offseason when they did not retain left guard Rodger Saffold (signed in Tennessee) and center John Sullivan retired. The idea was to slide in C Brian Allen and LG Joseph Noteboom at those spots, but the team did not look right for most of that early stretch – whether the line was protecting or run-blocking. Then, both new starters were lost for the year and replaced by other young and unproven pieces. Imagine how much chaos this would cause around here; plugging in four new starters along the OL and essentially nothing but the left tackle left from the Super Bowl. Here is a visual aid on how the OL has lined up for 2019 with red ink to denote backups starting:
It is remarkable that they actually appear to be at their best level right now given how different everything is from their plans.
Here is Skyler’s look at how things might look when the Rams are in their 11 personnel, but be warned that they are not exclusive to 11 anymore. In the last month, they have run the third-most 12 personnel in the entire NFL (after ranking 26th for the first 10 weeks of the season):
2019 has been a pretty wild ride for the Rams offense, and there is much concern about where Jared Goff is in his developmental journey, especially now that they gave him a ton of money to stay there through 2024. He had a stretch from Weeks 10-12 where he looked like the worst QB in the league, and he was playing games head-to-head with Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky. During that stretch the Rams scored 35 points in three games and rumors of the demise of Sean McVay: offensive genius were rampant. There is some evidence that Goff is starting to get back to his old self, but 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season does not inspire confidence.
Todd Gurley’s workload is headed back up to what we saw back in 2017 and early 2018. He had 20 touches in consecutive games for the first time in over a year. 23 runs and 4 catches against the Seahawks indicates that they believe it is now time to go after apparently conserving his usage earlier in the year.
Brandin Cooks has tailed way off since his concussion and hasn’t really put together a big game since September.
All of this combines to tell you this definitely is not the 2018 version that threatened to change the league:
But look at those explosive plays. They are No. 1 in the league and the Cowboys defense has given up the most in the league since Week 10. That could be a number worth referencing on Sunday. This may come down to our simple question of whether the Cowboys defense is up for the battle.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Jaylon Smith and the linebackers vs Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown
This one is easy to point to, given that the Rams ran for 273 yards on 48 carries in their last meeting, the Cowboys couldn’t tackle anyone in Chicago at all, and we don’t know who the second linebacker will be on Sunday since Leighton Vander Esch is out, Sean Lee hasn’t practiced this week and Joe Thomas is probably the only choice left. The Rams pair these outside runs with play-action behind it and although they have had some issues this year, we know that the play-action game, along with the horizontal threats of screens, jet sweeps and all of the McVay favorites could cause this battered Cowboys defense some massive issues.
THE PICK: Rams 28, Cowboys 20
I have almost no confidence in this current Cowboys team. It looks like effort is waning to stand up this week to a team that must win and is playing well. I think it is possible the Cowboys can win in Philadelphia next week and finish 8-8 and win the East, but this game has higher stakes for the better team and that is usually a very bad combination.
By Bob Sturm 36m ago
139 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 51 days until Super Bowl 54 in Miami and only two days until the 3:25 pm Week 15 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium…
335 days. Roughly 92% of a calendar year has passed since these two teams last met.
It was a rather crisp and cool night at the LA Coliseum, as one side was on its way to the Super Bowl and the other team — the one you care about — was sent into another offseason of discontent.
For a team trying to shake the feelings of being run over by Buffalo and Chicago, with both teams employing a similar blueprint, I suspect the Rams are not the team you were hoping to face to break the cycle. See if this sounds familiar:
The 2018 Rams-Cowboys playoff game featured the following attributes consistent with this current Dallas funk:
- Dallas scored a touchdown on its opening drive and then nothing for several drives
- Dallas then fell behind 23-7 by the late stages of the third quarter
- Dallas’ offense could not drive the football because of consistent third-down problems (1-10)
- Dallas’ defense could not generate sacks or takeaways often enough (o-o)
- Dallas could not flip field position until it was too late
- Dallas could not generate offensive production until it was too late
The Rams ran for a ridiculous 273 yards on an equally ridiculous 48 carries. Yes, the Dallas offense was supposed to control the ball and play keep away, but the defense allowed multiple first downs on all six Rams drives into the middle of the third quarter. All six of those drives ended in points, except for the long field goal attempt at the end of the half. In other words, as the Rams put up drives of 68, 70, 76, 64, 29, and 48 yards to take a 23-7 lead – with barely a memorable pass anywhere to be found – the Cowboys were beaten in the most elementary way possible, with run after run after run.
I suppose it is possible you decided to read this piece to fill you with courage heading into Sunday’s contest, but let’s start with this basic premise: The Cowboys picked the wrong opponent to right the ship if last year’s matchup is any indication whatsoever.
That said, this is the NFL — and the Rams do have a number of different pieces on both sides of the ball. So let’s take a measured look at a game that is vital to the Rams as they try to sneak through the back door of a crowded playoff room (NFC East aside).
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
One thing we know is that the Rams think this is their window. The high-end contracts will not sustain the middle of the roster much longer, so while they feel like they can absorb the costs of Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler and those receivers, they are going all-in. And that explains the massive payment they sent Jacksonville to acquire the great Jalen Ramsey to play corner for them for the remainder of his rookie deal, which expires in 2020. In sending the Jaguars their 2020 and 2021 first-round picks as well as a fourth-rounder (which makes one wonder what could have made that negotiation stall beyond the two first-round selections) we see a Rams team that had no interest in folding their tents just because they were third in a four-team division. They looked lost when the Ravens were destroying them on Monday Night Football a few weeks back, but they keep scrambling, fighting and hoping for help on the way in.
But now that they have Jalen Ramsey instead of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at corner, the defense has changed a bit. First, take a look at how we think they will line up on Sunday in nickel (actually, dime in their case) to counter the Cowboys’ 11 personnel:
We should also point out that the Rams were very fortunate that several teams passed on the safety that I loved this year in the draft — Taylor Rapp from Washington — as he has been pressed into service since they lost their starter, John Johnson, right about the time of their trade with Jacksonville. Not to name names, but here is a brief look at the teams right above them which might have needed an impactful safety (courtesy of Wikipedia):
I know many people wanted Virginia’s Juan Thornhill more (very possibly Dallas), but apparently the Rams agreed with me. (Granted, Kansas City seems very happy with Thornhill.) Rapp was my highest rated safety last spring and it is no surprise that he and Ramsey have changed their defense. Here are two things to consider about the new-look Rams defense since the move:
- Since Jalen Ramsey and Taylor Rapp entered the starting lineup in Week 7, Rams are first in sacks (30) and second in PPG allowed (15.4). If not for the Monday night meltdown vs. the Lamar Jackson juggernaut, it would be 10.5 PPG. Is this the best defense of the Aaron Donald era?
- Blitzing is way up since Week 6. Since making the huge changes at cornerback, it is clear that the Rams are playing a more aggressive style of defense and Wade has unleashed far greater pressure than we have seen in Los Angeles. Fowler, Matthews, Ebukan, and of course Donald are now being aided with LB/DB pressure. They weren’t blitzing early in the year, but that has changed quite a bit.
The incredible element of this Rams defense is that they do not give up any big plays. They are No. 1 in fewest explosive plays, which pairs very well with being #1 with most offensive explosive plays. Troy Hill has been very good for them, and that defensive line has proven to really be something. The Rams have surrounded Aaron Donald with a number of nice edge rushers and athletic forces which are tough to deal with when one of them gets singled up against a weak link. They can now get after it with just about anyone.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Aaron Donald vs Xavier Su’a-Filo
Perhaps I don’t even have to explain the issues Aaron Donald causes with top guards, let alone guards who are best as top reserves. In case you were wondering if he is still the most unstoppable force in the universe, he still leads all defensive tackles in the NFL in sacks and all players in the NFL in tackles for loss. He is ridiculous and he should be able to not only occupy XSF all day, but Travis Frederick, too. Of course, that then means everyone else gets singled up. Dante Fowler, Michael Brockers, and Clay Matthews will have their moments.
Now, let’s flip this around to the somewhat inconsistent 2019 Rams offense.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
The biggest issue has been the season-long offensive line issues. Remember, in 2017 and 2018, they never missed a start along their line. That continuity was pretty amazing and perhaps undersold. This, of course, started in the offseason when they did not retain left guard Rodger Saffold (signed in Tennessee) and center John Sullivan retired. The idea was to slide in C Brian Allen and LG Joseph Noteboom at those spots, but the team did not look right for most of that early stretch – whether the line was protecting or run-blocking. Then, both new starters were lost for the year and replaced by other young and unproven pieces. Imagine how much chaos this would cause around here; plugging in four new starters along the OL and essentially nothing but the left tackle left from the Super Bowl. Here is a visual aid on how the OL has lined up for 2019 with red ink to denote backups starting:
It is remarkable that they actually appear to be at their best level right now given how different everything is from their plans.
Here is Skyler’s look at how things might look when the Rams are in their 11 personnel, but be warned that they are not exclusive to 11 anymore. In the last month, they have run the third-most 12 personnel in the entire NFL (after ranking 26th for the first 10 weeks of the season):
2019 has been a pretty wild ride for the Rams offense, and there is much concern about where Jared Goff is in his developmental journey, especially now that they gave him a ton of money to stay there through 2024. He had a stretch from Weeks 10-12 where he looked like the worst QB in the league, and he was playing games head-to-head with Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky. During that stretch the Rams scored 35 points in three games and rumors of the demise of Sean McVay: offensive genius were rampant. There is some evidence that Goff is starting to get back to his old self, but 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season does not inspire confidence.
Todd Gurley’s workload is headed back up to what we saw back in 2017 and early 2018. He had 20 touches in consecutive games for the first time in over a year. 23 runs and 4 catches against the Seahawks indicates that they believe it is now time to go after apparently conserving his usage earlier in the year.
Brandin Cooks has tailed way off since his concussion and hasn’t really put together a big game since September.
All of this combines to tell you this definitely is not the 2018 version that threatened to change the league:
But look at those explosive plays. They are No. 1 in the league and the Cowboys defense has given up the most in the league since Week 10. That could be a number worth referencing on Sunday. This may come down to our simple question of whether the Cowboys defense is up for the battle.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Jaylon Smith and the linebackers vs Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown
This one is easy to point to, given that the Rams ran for 273 yards on 48 carries in their last meeting, the Cowboys couldn’t tackle anyone in Chicago at all, and we don’t know who the second linebacker will be on Sunday since Leighton Vander Esch is out, Sean Lee hasn’t practiced this week and Joe Thomas is probably the only choice left. The Rams pair these outside runs with play-action behind it and although they have had some issues this year, we know that the play-action game, along with the horizontal threats of screens, jet sweeps and all of the McVay favorites could cause this battered Cowboys defense some massive issues.
THE PICK: Rams 28, Cowboys 20
I have almost no confidence in this current Cowboys team. It looks like effort is waning to stand up this week to a team that must win and is playing well. I think it is possible the Cowboys can win in Philadelphia next week and finish 8-8 and win the East, but this game has higher stakes for the better team and that is usually a very bad combination.
