Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 6
Dallas will need a lot to go right to get their first home win since Detroit last visited.
Bob Sturm
Oct 12, 2024

They lost at home on Opening Night 2022 to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in a very poor performance. Then, they won the rest of their home games that year. They also won all their regular-season home games in 2023. The last game in that streak of 16 straight wins was against the Detroit Lions on December 30, 2023.
It was a bit of a slugfest and certainly a hard-fought game. But in the end, partly because Dan Campbell refused to kick an extra point and instead went for the win with three straight attempts at a 2-point conversion, Dallas hung on to win a controversial 20-19 game.
That game was the last time the Cowboys won a home game.

Now, they have lost three straight and they have all been absolutely brutal losses.
- Down 27-7 to Green Bay in the playoffs at the half.
- Down 35-16 to the Saints in Week 2 at the half.
- Down 21-6 to the Ravens in Week 3 at the half.
- Combined, down 83-29 at halftime of the three home losses.
So, you are a team that is built to play with the lead and you have been outscored by an average of 28-10 by the intermission.
That is definitely not going to work.
I know that I promise three thoughts in these pieces, but here is a very clear bonus one:
This football team needs to be awake at opening kickoff ready to take the game to the Lions right off the bat if they want to prove they can get a home win before November. Because this Detroit team can absolutely hammer teams that aren’t ready to fight for 60 minutes.

This is a huge one on Sunday and these are my Cowboys PreGame Three Thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– The Cowboys Offense better be prepared to score 30+ points to have a chance to win this one and playing with an early lead would be a very nice place to start.
I get asked a lot about the Cowboys' offense being too vanilla and how soon we can fire the staff and hire Detroit’s Ben Johnson to install an offense with answers.
Well, with rookie offensive linemen at two spots—including a left tackle who has really struggled in the last month—no running back solutions, and very few weapons who can separate from coverage, it isn’t just about drawing up better plays on a whiteboard.
Dallas has done Dak Prescott no favors, and I know it won’t matter to anyone when he’s getting torn to shreds the next time this team loses, but it still annoys me to no end. They are currently running the “Dak, figure it out” offense, and it’s a struggle.
You see, they seem to have built a running game that is ranked 31st this week—which is actually a step in the right direction because they were ranked 32nd last week—and also built an offense where they cannot run a full passing game either. They have to get the ball out immediately on every play, which really limits what you can do aerially. What that means is he cannot hold on to the ball, so your receivers can barely ever get downfield in their routes. What happens if he holds the ball to give the receivers an extra moment to shake open from coverage? Well, he gets sacked, maybe fumbles, and everyone yells at him for not knowing he has to get the ball out faster, blaming him.
But also, because he gets the ball out so quickly, there are very few big plays since all the passes are underneath—to weapons that are probably limited. Why do they settle for field goals? Why can’t he get the team in the end zone? Also, his fault.
So, just to recap: no running game, pass protection forces him to run a limited offense, and he’s not allowed to hold the ball to give his guys a chance. Please design an offense that can operate under those parameters because every week Mike McCarthy gets ripped here for not having a better offense. Tell me what you could do under these circumstances, because it’s a bit different from what Jared Goff and Ben Johnson get to work with each week.
The fallback, of course, is that Dak makes so much money, right? Not sure if you’ve noticed what Jared Goff makes ($53 million a year), but I’ll help you—he has made about the exact same money as Prescott since they both entered the league in 2016. In other words, you can pay your QB premium money and still not forget to put an offensive unit together if you really want to win a Super Bowl.

But, none of that is going to change by Sunday, so we understand what this offense has. And frankly, they have started to make it work better. Rico Dowdle is running better, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert are giving the passing game more than just CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott found some downfield throws – including
a fantastic seam to KaVontae Turpin in Pittsburgh. I recommend they feed Lamb more – even on quick outs and try to build on what was working last week against a better defense than Detroit has.
However, there is a clear and present danger for Detroit’s defense and it is Aidan Hutchinson from Michigan who was the 2nd overall pick in the 2022 draft. He is absolutely everything he was billed to be. Look at this incredibly display against Tampa and poor Baker Mayfield took some bruises on this day:
Here is the issue with Hutchinson - he can play on either side. Remember how TJ Watt goes strictly from the left side against right tackles? Well, that is not the case with Aidan. He will swap from side to side and is against right tackles more, but it is a 60/40 split with him, not a 99/1 split like with TJ Watt. So, if you were Detroit, wouldn’t you make Tyler Guyton prove he can deal with him as bad as Guyton has been struggling?
Yeah, me, too.
But, the reality is this, as we look at our charts in the matchup. Detroit’s defense is good, but you can get some things done through the air and Hutchinson is still the only massive pass rush problem they present. He is ridiculous, but they still don’t have much of a bookend for him.

For Dallas to win this game, I think they need to start fast and to get a touchdown per quarter and that will require a clean game in turnovers and a red-zone masterpiece. If they get to the red zone 5 times, I think they will need to cash in for 4 touchdowns. Field goals won’t get it done on Sunday.
Ok, let’s flip the field to where the headaches are pretty big.
When The Lions have the ball:
– The Cowboys have to figure out how to stop the run against a Lions’ team that runs the ball better and better every year. If they can do that, then a Mike Zimmer blitz package could knock Detroit off balance. But, if they can’t, they have no chance defensively.
Before Dan Campbell took the Lions job, they were the 30th best running team in the NFL in 2020. Then he was hired and that changed immediately.
In 2021, the Lions ran the ball for 111 a game and 4.4 a carry.
In 2022, the Lions ran the ball for 128 a game and 4.5 a carry.
In 2023, the Lions ran the ball for 136 a game and 4.6 a carry.
In 2024, the Lions run the ball for 151 a game and 4.7 a carry.
At no point did they have a running QB, but the run game – with a number of different ball carriers took advantage of a big-time OL and they keep getting better with 2024 perhaps the best version yet. They are now one of the best running teams in the league and you should expect to see a ton of it. They have a tandem of wonderful backs and they want to push you around.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have just stopped two teams that are not high quality after being destroyed by Baltimore. That destruction included Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Marshawn Kneeland, and Eric Kendricks, and all four will be absent on Sunday.
Yikes.
The job is huge, and we think either Marist Liufau or Damone Clark—or both—will be asked to play the game of their careers in filling in for Eric Kendricks and coordinating the run fits when those Lions start grounding and pounding from their opening snap. Linval Joseph and Mazi Smith will have to fight their tails off, and the undersized edges that started to make impressions against the Steelers will have to show some ballast as well. Can they do it? I imagine the plan will be to try to get a lead and knock them off this objective because if Detroit is up 10 early, they might run it 60 times. These Lions don’t play.
And it starts with this guy. Penei Sewell was the first draft pick for Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell, and it set the tone for this entire era of Lions football. I want you to watch this reel and tell me if he scares you as much as he scares me. Sewell is not normal.
Just think – he is 24 years old and this is his 4th year in the NFL. At 0:20 in that video he throws Fred Warner like Warner is a middle school linebacker. It is just ridiculous how much of a freak this guy is and I think he is as impactful as it gets on this Lions offense.
So, here is the tale of the tape. It isn’t pretty and this is why everyone is picking Detroit.

If you can slow down the run game, then you can get to your blitz packages on 3rd down and that is where Dallas has a chance to force some moments that might swing the game. But, all of that requires the defense to knock the Lions off schedule and off balance. And that requires a performance on both sides of the ball that makes the Lions uncomfortable and I am not sure Dallas is in any shape to handle that right now.
– The Cowboys have put themselves back in the mix with the two game win streak and now will be expected to lose the next two as they play both sides from last year’s NFC Championship Game. If they can somehow go 1-1 and be 4-3 entering November when they get their guys back, this season can still go very well. But, how do you get that done?
That is the big question. You are about to play Detroit without a ton of pieces, then a bye week, and then face San Francisco. I would say your probabilities are probably below 40% in both matchups, so you are going to need to do whatever you can to steal a win from a heavyweight.
Both teams employ similar offenses that will lean into a physical run game and hunt for play-action passes behind a tired Cowboys defense to hit huge blows. Both teams use lots of motion (both top 4 teams in the league), lots of play-action, and both employ in-breaking routes more than anyone else in the sport (1st and 2nd).
It is highly possible that San Francisco will use the actual Detroit game plan to form theirs (although SF doesn’t need much help with ideas to attack Dallas), and this could be a long few weeks unless Mike Zimmer works some magic. Not having Eric Kendricks is just another cruel development.
Can Dallas go 1-1 in these two games that are separated by the bye week? That may determine how many important games they will play when things get slightly easier down the stretch. You are getting guys back, but the understudies have to hang in there a bit longer.
This is going to take someone stepping up big time.