Eberflus' Scheme

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Which is why they should consider that before backing up the Brink’s truck and marrying him. I have a feeling he will break down every year just like last season in a scheme like this if all they do is flop sides with him.
But you don't throw away a talent like Parsons because you hired a guy whose scheme doesn't fit him. That's crazy. That's the Taco over Watt argument again.
 

dpf1123

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Breaking Down Eberflus’ Scheme: What to Expect from the Cowboys’ Defense
Cody Alexander from MatchQuarters joins us to breakdown the new defensive scheme


Bob Sturm
and
Cody Alexander
Jan 29, 2025


I am very excited this morning. More on that in a second.

No, not because the Cowboys have finalized the Matt Eberflus hiring, but because we knew he checked too many boxes not to be front and center in running this defense the moment we saw Mike Zimmer was ready to retire—if he wasn’t going to be strongly considered as the team’s next head coach.

Eberflus is a very strong defensive mind with significant Cowboys ties and needs a gig. That seems to be the trifecta around here these days, so you didn’t have to be a Vegas insider to see this one coming a mile away.

Eberflus will bring back the Rod Marinelli defense that once served the Cowboys pretty well, even if we were always left wanting with the end product.

My memories of the Marinelli Cowboys defense: It never seemed like they had enough talent to be great at executing it and, therefore, were never really able to replicate any version of the Tampa Bay group or even the Seattle Seahawks, no matter how much they talked about those influences. You may recall that when Matt Eberflus left for the Colts, Kris Richard was brought in from Seattle (when they couldn’t bring Earl Thomas home) to continue trying to sort through the issues that came with getting more from the defense in terms of takeaways and big plays.

The Marinelli defense was less about blitzes, splash plays, and takeaways and more about sound defense that attempted to limit big plays, make offenses work hard for everything, and fly to the ball “like a bunch of crazed dogs.”

Lots of zones and no blitzes. Play it safer and allow your guys to confirm the scheme by winning their matchups. The trouble is, they always seemed to pour financial resources into the offense, and the defense would get the leftovers. Unlike Seattle, San Francisco, and the dominant defenses we know, they didn’t prioritize the studs who would make any scheme work. And that would bite them against the heavyweights in January.

Here, in yellow, are the four years where Eberflus had risen under Marinelli and the team had two wonderful seasons in 2014 and 2016. In both cases, the defense was asked to do much less heavy lifting because the offense was playing the game on their terms and playing with leads (sound familiar?).

Of course, each of those two seasons were ended when they ran into Green Bay in the playoffs. From a defensive standpoint, they just could never get a stop against Aaron Rodgers.


People reference the “Dez Catch,” but with 4 minutes to go, they were still going to need to mix in a stop against Rodgers. The defense could not get pressure, could not force an error, and definitely could not get a stop. In that 2014 game, this defense stopped Rodgers one time in the second half and that was the first drive out of halftime. In 2016, Jeff Heath blindsided the QB but the ball didn’t come out and he threw arguably the best throw of his life in the dying seconds to get the win.

At the moment of truth, they bent and then broke each time. Even the Rams playoff loss in 2018 seemed to once again suggest that the defense wanted to run a scheme that required one or two more defensive butt-kickers than they had available.

Being short on butt-kickers is why teams get riskier on defense. They blitz more, play more man to allow it, and find splash plays and takeaways. You make up for personnel deficiencies by rolling the dice to try to “make something happen,” which is the path Dan Quinn took them on.

Think of it all as a risk slider on a board. If you slide it all the way to risky and lose, well, then the next guy (Zimmer) tries to slide it back to being more sound and by the book. And now, we are sliding it again back to “bend but don’t break,” which only works if you invest in personnel who can win their matchups across the board. So that is a huge part of this with Eberflus in 2025.

Now, let’s explain my excitement. To the biggest football nerds here at Sturmstack, Cody Alexander may need no introduction. But, to the rest of you all, he is one of the best coaching minds around and runs the fantastic site himself, known as MatchQuarters which is the industry standard for defensive football strategies and tactical information.

I think Cody is awesome and have visited with him many times to make sure I am on the right path with some of my takes.
Well, yesterday, I wanted to pick his brain about Eberflus to Dallas, and I expected a quick back-and-forth. Instead, he told me he wanted to write something up and break it all down, and what he came up with blew me away.

Below, he breaks down—in great detail—not only the scheme but also how it will differ from what we have seen around here in many ways, from the front of the defense to the back. When you are done reading it, you might want to bookmark it to circle back and read it again as we go, because I know I will.

So, I thank him for the effort he put into this because he could have easily told me he was too busy. I hope you will check out MatchQuarters yourself and give him a try, you can easily do so right here:

Cody Alexander’s profile of the Matt Eberflus Defense

Matt Eberflus started his NFL career under Rob Ryan in a system that focused on creating pressure and using man coverage. This is a far cry from the defense Everflus plays today, which leans heavily into zone coverage and has bottom-third blitz rates.

You must start with the Browns to examine how Eberflus has grown since entering the NFL in 2009. When Ryan was hired as the defensive coordinator in Dallas, he brought Eberflus as his linebacker coach from Cleveland.

Two more seasons would pass, and Monte Kiffin would enter the picture as defensive coordinator. The transition from a Ryans 3-4 to Kiffins 4-3 structure would have an anchoring influence on Eberflus. Kiffin is most famous for using the Tampa 2 coverage system he helped develop with Tony Dungy.

Eberflus' defenses in Indianapolis and Chicago reflected the foundations of Kiffin's defenses in Dallas. Under Eberflus, the Bears have been a 4-3-based defense that wants to run zone coverage. The term 'Tampa 2' makes it seem like the defense runs Cover 2 on most downs, but that isn't the case.

Most Tampa 2 teams base in Cover 3.

In reality, Tampa is a modified version of Cover 3, with the Mike linebacker running through the middle of the field as a 'pole runner' into the Deep Thirds. This action allows the Safeties to work to the Deep Halves over the top of the outside receivers. The defense, in turn, is trying to build three triangles, two outside and one in the deep middle of the field.

Eberflus utilizes Tampa 2 on passing downs, but on early downs (first and second), the Bears were mainly in Cover 3. Chicago ran the 14th most snaps of Cover 2 in the league last year but the second most snaps of Cover 3, second only to Gus Bradley’s Colts defense. Above is a comparison to Mike Zimmer’s coverage usage in Dallas.

For most of the year, the Bears had one of the better secondary units in the NFL. CB Jaylon Johnson was a second-team All-Pro, and Nickel Kyler Gordon is widely considered one of the better slot defenders in the league. Still, significant issues arose in the past two years.

In 2023, the Bears had no pass rush. The trade for Montez Sweat changed that. Eberflus doesn’t blitz often, and pressure creation lies along his front four. This sounds about the same for Dallas fans as when Dan Quinn and Mike Zimmer were the coordinators.

In both tenures, the Cowboys ranked near the bottom of the league in Blitz Rate. That won’t change very much under Eberflus. Above is a comparison of how Zimmer and Eberflus called defense. Eberflus pressed slightly more in passing situations, going from 24th overall in Blitz Rate to 18th in Pass Blitz Rate. To compare, the Cowboys were 22nd in Blitz Rate and 14th in Pass Blitz Rate.

By Quarters, we mean 25% of the entire season

Eberflus’ 4-3 defense relies heavily on the defensive line's ability to be disruptive. A constant in Dallas is the need for a true Nose in the middle of the defense. Early in the year, Eberflus’ Bears’ defense was one of the best in the NFL. Once DT Andrew Billings went down, the run defense followed, leading to a crash in EPA (Expected Points Allowed).

Each column is 25% of the season

From Week 10 to Week 14, the Bears saw the largest decline in defensive production in the NFL (see above). Last year, Chicago's stingy run defense fueled one of the league's strongest finishes to the season. 2024 was the complete opposite: a strong start was followed by a massive slide in production.

What does this mean for Dallas? First, the defensive structure will not change. Quinn and Zimmer ran four-down fronts that favored their Nickel packages. Eberflus will continue that trend, and his Chicago defenses were typically near the top in Nickel (4-2-5) usage.
Unlike Quinn, who wanted to use line stunts to create penetration and confusion, Zimmer and Eberflus tend to be at the bottom of those metrics. Defensive linemen hold gaps in the interior and keep the second level clean. Eberflus will use line stunts to cancel gaps versus the run when utilizing Cover 2 on early downs.

Dallas will finally need to get a gap-protecting Nose, though. Eberflus’ defense needs it, as illustrated by the decline in Chicago after the Billings injury. Hopefully, his pedigree as an established coach will convince the front office (Jerry) to get one. Demarcus Lawrence fits the mold of defensive end that plays in this system, and I would assume Eberflus and the Cowboys would want to keep Parsons and ‘Tank’ together.

Linebackers have also been an issue in Dallas in recent seasons. Eberflus is a long-time linebacker coach known for developing players at that position. Eric Kendricks was a ‘Zimmer guy,’ and Eberflus favors more athletic linebackers who can run and hit in his zone-centric system. DeMarvion Overshown fits Eberflus's athletic mold, but look for Dallas to bring in someone who is also athletic and can cover to pair with him.

When Eberflus does utilize pressure, it tends to come from the linebacker position. Chicago was fifth in the NFL in five-man pressures last year. Looking at the chart above, the one main difference is in aggressiveness. Zimmer loves to send blitzes, and Dallas was ninth in the NFL last year in their usage. Eberflus is more passive, wanting to use his defensive line to create pressure and coverage disguises on later downs to confuse quarterbacks.

A simulated pressure typically sends a blitzer from the second level or the secondary, but the defense drops defensive linemen and only rushes four. Zimmer was more of a traditionalist when it came to defense. Though the Cowboys ran different concepts, there was little coverage disguise or change in structure. Eberflus will run simulated pressures and, with an athletic Edge like Micah Parsons, can create many different looks.

The secondary fits what Eberflus is looking for at almost every position. Though Dallas has played a majority man under Quinn and high volumes under Zimmer, both top CBs play mostly off-ball. That means they don’t press on a majority of their snaps. Eberflus utilized Johnson's off-ball skill set in Chicago to make him an All-Pro. Both Travon Diggs and DaRon Bland have the potential to thrive in a system that wants them to play the ball and use their ball-hawking ability and vision.

At Safety, Dallas has played with a primary ‘down’ Safety and Post Safety since Dan Quinn. In Eberflus’ Cover 3 scheme, this will also be true. Donovan Wilson will play similarly to the Bears’ Kevin Byard, lining up near the line of scrimmage and in the Slot. Malik Hooker will continue his role as the Post Safety, playing deep in the same role Jaquan Brisker played. Both Safeties will sometimes align near the box, but they will have distinctly different roles.

The Bears were fifth in zone coverage usage, primarily in Cover 3. Though he has a Tampa background, Eberflus is squarely entrenched in closed-post coverage. He still opted to play zone even with two CBs who could play man coverage: Johnson and Tyler Stevenson. Though Dallas has excelled at man coverage for the past few years, the Cowboys will likely see a massive uptick in zone coverage.

Chicago's defense experienced a roller coaster ride in two separate seasons but has had flashes of steady play. For the Cowboys, who want to keep things ‘stable’ on the coaching front, it is safe to turn to Eberflus, an established defensive coach who won’t drastically change the roster. The newly appointed head coach, Brian Schottenheimer, will also be able to lean on Eberflus’s experience as a head coach.

Cody, that was wonderful. My takeaway is that this makes me wonder about prioritizing the free agents like Osa Odighizuwa and Jourdan Lewis who may have seen their value in Dallas grow by this hire. I also think that this will verify my belief that they probably need a defensive tackle pretty high in the draft, which is why the first ten players in the Sturm 60 this year are DT’s.

I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did. And don’t forget, go give MatchQuarters a visit and learn more about defense than you knew possible!
 

Cowboysrock55

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Interesting, so technically he blitzed more than Zimmer? 5th in the NFL in rushing 5 guys seems like a pretty high rate. Or was I reading that wrong?
 

Cowboysrock55

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But you don't throw away a talent like Parsons because you hired a guy whose scheme doesn't fit him. That's crazy. That's the Taco over Watt argument again.
No, I think that would be beyond silly. Hopefully Eberflus has a plan for keeping him rested. Right now it's all just guessing.
 

boozeman

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But you don't throw away a talent like Parsons because you hired a guy whose scheme doesn't fit him. That's crazy. That's the Taco over Watt argument again.
Who said throw him away? How about consider what the system will do. At least with Zimmer, he would use him in the A gap. That is where Eberflus better have a plan.
 

Simpleton

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Which is why they should consider that before backing up the Brink’s truck and marrying him. I have a feeling he will break down every year just like last season in a scheme like this if all they do is flop sides with him.
They need to just make him a designated pass rusher and only play him maybe 50-60% of the snaps. He'd still have enough impact to warrant a massive contract.

Let guys like Kneeland, Lawrence, Golston and those types absorb the run downs.
 

Bill Shatner

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Which is why they should consider that before backing up the Brink’s truck and marrying him. I have a feeling he will break down every year just like last season in a scheme like this if all they do is flop sides with him.
It’s sad. They could have had a pretty unique defensive weapon if they kept using him like his rookie year where he even lined up at CB a few times.
 

Simpleton

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Interesting, so technically he blitzed more than Zimmer? 5th in the NFL in rushing 5 guys seems like a pretty high rate. Or was I reading that wrong?
Eberflus blitzed less than Zimmer according to this part: Above is a comparison of how Zimmer and Eberflus called defense. Eberflus pressed slightly more in passing situations, going from 24th overall in Blitz Rate to 18th in Pass Blitz Rate. To compare, the Cowboys were 22nd in Blitz Rate and 14th in Pass Blitz Rate.

It's funny that this article more or less says what I had in my initial post, except with 10X the words.
 

dpf1123

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Eberflus blitzed less than Zimmer according to this part: Above is a comparison of how Zimmer and Eberflus called defense. Eberflus pressed slightly more in passing situations, going from 24th overall in Blitz Rate to 18th in Pass Blitz Rate. To compare, the Cowboys were 22nd in Blitz Rate and 14th in Pass Blitz Rate.

It's funny that this article more or less says what I had in my initial post, except with 10X the words.
I almost put that at the top If you want a condensed version of this, just read Simp's first post. :lol
 

Cowboysrock55

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Eberflus blitzed less than Zimmer according to this part: Above is a comparison of how Zimmer and Eberflus called defense. Eberflus pressed slightly more in passing situations, going from 24th overall in Blitz Rate to 18th in Pass Blitz Rate. To compare, the Cowboys were 22nd in Blitz Rate and 14th in Pass Blitz Rate.

It's funny that this article more or less says what I had in my initial post, except with 10X the words.
Chicago was fifth in the NFL in five-man pressures last year.

Am I understanding this wrong? Is sending 5 guys not considered a blitz? I did notice that he does not like sending 6 men. But that's probably because it compromises the coverage badly when you do that.

I was also a bit surprised to see how much cover 3 he ran. I honestly thought he was a cover two guy. Obviously he runs both but way more cover 3 than I was expecting.
 

Simpleton

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I think this note is really important to keep in mind as well: A simulated pressure typically sends a blitzer from the second level or the secondary, but the defense drops defensive linemen and only rushes four. Zimmer was more of a traditionalist when it came to defense. Though the Cowboys ran different concepts, there was little coverage disguise or change in structure. Eberflus will run simulated pressures and, with an athletic Edge like Micah Parsons, can create many different looks.

Zimmer was mostly about pre-snap disguise and distorting protection schemes with his double-A stuff but ran relatively basic coverages on the back end. Eberflus is the opposite, there isn't much pre-snap disguise, especially with the pass rush, but there is more post-snap disguise with the coverages especially.
 

Simpleton

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Chicago was fifth in the NFL in five-man pressures last year.

Am I understanding this wrong? Is sending 5 guys not considered a blitz? I did notice that he does not like sending 6 men. But that's probably because it compromises the coverage badly when you do that.

I was also a bit surprised to see how much cover 3 he ran. I honestly thought he was a cover two guy. Obviously he runs both but way more cover 3 than I was expecting.
They may have been 5th in 5-man specifically but the overall blitz rate was lower, so as you kind of alluded to, Zimmer sent more total blitzes (or at least total as a %) overall while Eberflus went with 5-man specifically more.

That ties into what I said last night about how when he blitzes it's almost always one of the LB's as an add-on to the DL, whereas with Zimmer there was more disguise and mixing/matching.
 

ravidubey

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Cowboys could thrive under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. But first, they must answer a major question about their best defender, Micah Parsons.

There are some interesting nuggets here:

-Eberflus’ system will bring a 4-3 defensive front with philosophical similarities to former Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli’s system, Jones said. He’ll seek “beefier” defensive tackles to stop the run, a category Jones expected 2023 first-round draft pick Mazi Smith to fill well. The Cowboys will also look to extend free-agent-to-be defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, a homegrown talent whom Jones characterizes as a “priority” in their free-agent course of business, pending Eberflus’ evaluation.

-The Cowboys view stopping the run and creating a run game as crucial areas of improvement in 2025. Under Schottenheimer, they plan to hire an offensive coordinator who will oversee the run game and protections, Jones said.

It's nice to hear that they're supposedly prioritizing Odighizuwa, re-sign him, either Lawrence or Golston (or maybe someone like Darrell Taylor or DeMarcus Walker from the Bears), draft a guy with one of our top 2-3 picks and I think the DL will be in solid shape.
I don’t like that Odighizuwa’s asking price gets inflated because of his performances in a stretch where we played very average to bad teams.

He is a good player, but yet again another guy who never steps up vs good teams. Do we want to commit the next several years for the most important position on the defense to this guy?
 

Cowboysrock55

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He is a good player, but yet again another guy who never steps up vs good teams. Do we want to commit the next several years for the most important position on the defense to this guy?
Depends what you mean by commit? It's hard to say without contract numbers but in no way should Osa getting extended prevent you from drafting and developing someone for that position.

However guys take time to develop. The guy has been in the league 4 years and has shown good improvement every year. Seems a bit silly to me to spend all that time developing him to this level to let him walk to another team.

Some guys actually deserve to stick around beyond 4 years and this guy definitely does. But the devils in the details. I have no idea what he would fetch in free agency. And if someone wants to pay him like an elite we will let him walk.
 
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Simpleton

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Depends what you mean by commit? It's hard to say without contract numbers but in no way should Osa getting extended prevent you from drafting and developing someone for that position.

However guys take time to develop. The guy has been in the league 4 years and has shown good improvement every year. Seems a bit silly to me to spend all that time developing him to this level to let him walk to another team.

Some guys actually deserve to stick around beyond 4 years and this guy definitely does. But the devils in the details. I have no idea what he would fetch in free agency. And if someone wants to pay him like an elite we will let him walk.
Yea, it's hard to say without knowing the numbers.

If it's 16-18/year sign me right up.

If it's 20+ then I start getting skittish.

The years make a big difference too of course, if it's 5-6 years $20+ could be palatable but not if it's 4.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Yea, it's hard to say without knowing the numbers.

If it's 16-18/year sign me right up.

If it's 20+ then I start getting skittish.

The years make a big difference too of course, if it's 5-6 years $20+ could be palatable but not if it's 4.
It will either 4 four or 1. Do we do anything else anymore?

But yeah the longer the contract the higher you can go because it creates cap flexibility and the cap goes up every year. It also wouldn't shock me if Osa was a 6+ sack kind of guy with Eberflus. Osa doesn't strike me as the type that will disappoint you if you extend him like some players. I think the dude has always been a consistent and hard working guy. Not someone who just suddenly put the work in when he is in a contract season.
 

ravidubey

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Yea, it's hard to say without knowing the numbers.

If it's 16-18/year sign me right up.

If it's 20+ then I start getting skittish.

The years make a big difference too of course, if it's 5-6 years $20+ could be palatable but not if it's 4.
He’s going to get a $100 million deal. That’s how his performance, role, and age has positioned him for the market.

We all saw how average the Cowboys defense has been playing balanced teams that can run the ball. Odighizuwa has been non-existent vs good teams and very good vs the Giants. I’m willing to let him go before playing a lot

This just sucks. I like him and he should remain a Cowboy, but at that cost I’d want to see us improve, not stay the same
 

Cowboysrock55

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He’s going to get a $100 million deal. That’s how his performance, role, and age has positioned him for the market.

We all saw how average the Cowboys defense has been playing balanced teams that can run the ball. Odighizuwa has been non-existent vs good teams and very good vs the Giants. I’m willing to let him go before playing a lot

This just sucks. I like him and he should remain a Cowboy, but at that cost I’d want to see us improve, not stay the same
I did check, ESPN has him as their 10th best free agent. So it's possible he is in for a big pay day. I don't really know.
 

UncleMilti

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He’s going to get a $100 million deal. That’s how his performance, role, and age has positioned him for the market.

We all saw how average the Cowboys defense has been playing balanced teams that can run the ball. Odighizuwa has been non-existent vs good teams and very good vs the Giants. I’m willing to let him go before playing a lot

This just sucks. I like him and he should remain a Cowboy, but at that cost I’d want to see us improve, not stay the same
I don’t see this FO of clowns out laying the kind of money needed to run a DC’s defense to complete saturation along the defensive line. They haven’t done it since JJ, and when they have tried to build thru the draft it’s been a letdown for the most part and the FAs have been pulled off the scrap heap when they did dive into trying for improvement along the line. Give the guy what he needs to run his D, and he’s probably going to do well.
 
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