Simpleton
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 19,349
I don't have anything better to do so I watched some all-22 of the Bears defense last year just to get a refresher on what sort of defense to expect under Eberflus. It took me a minute to think back to what our defenses were like circa 2014-16 because that's about 4 DC's ago at this point, but it's pretty apparent that Eberflus came up under a Tampa-2 guy like Marinelli.
A few takeaways:
-There isn't much in way of disguise with the pre-snap alignment, you almost always have your down 4 rushing with a few stunts/twists mixed in, with some variation of zone behind it (Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4 primarily, although there is some mixing and matching post-snap). He does like to mix in some man, especially on 3rd down, but usually you're getting some variation of zone.
-The blitzes are pretty simplistic, usually a LB just triggering straight downhill with the DL adjusting accordingly or a CB blitzing out of the slot. You rarely ever see anything like the dynamic blitzes and shifts that Zimmer would put together to manipulate protection schemes, with Eberflus it seems you usually have guys in relatively static positions in the back 7 and you'll get a random blitzer every now and again. It's not my preference exactly but it does seem to catch offenses off guard, almost like they're lulled into assuming that you'll only get 4 rushing.
-I think the scheme is pretty similar to what you get out of a guy like Fangio who relies on the front 4 to attack downhill while playing shell coverage behind it. Given how the blitzes usually come from the LB spot I think there's space for Overshown to excel if he can recover from his injury, but the scheme is going to rely heavily on the DL getting home, so I'd hope that the jackasses running the team realize the importance of re-signing a few of our DL free agents while also investing one of our top 2-3 picks in the unit.
-I don't think this is a great scheme fit for Jalon Walker, who really needs to be in a more exotic defense that mixes up alignments and allows guys to kind of float around a bit. Given that we already have one very undersized edge rusher in Parsons I think Walker would only be a "designated pass rusher" who plays maybe 30% or so of the snaps. There's obviously value in that but probably not enough to justify at 12. The only way he'd get on the field in this scheme 60-70% of the time would be if he played significant snaps at "off ball" LB, which i think would be a bit of a disservice to him given how the scheme operates.
-There are a couple interesting guys either out of a contract for the Bears, or in the last year of the deal who may be cut that I'd be interested in (and who would fit into how our cheap ass organization approaches FA). TJ Edwards and DeMarcus Walker both have 1 year left on their deals and Darrell Taylor is a UFA, I'd be interested in all of them with Edwards as a replacement for Kendricks and Walker/Taylor being rotational guys on the DL.
Here are some stats comparing alignments and blitz rates of Zimmer last year, the Bears last year, and Eberflus' last two years with the Colts, you can see how religiously Eberflus sticks to 4 down linemen compared to Zimmer who mixes it up a bit more:
Zimmer in 2024 - 67% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 8% 3-3-5, 5% other 3-man line, 23% blitz rate
Bears in 2024 - 75% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 5% other 3-man line, 22% blitz rate
Colts in 2021 (Eberflus last year as DC) - 77% 4-2-5, 21% 4-3-4, 15% blitz rate
Colts in 2020 - 79% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 14% blitz rate
A few takeaways:
-There isn't much in way of disguise with the pre-snap alignment, you almost always have your down 4 rushing with a few stunts/twists mixed in, with some variation of zone behind it (Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4 primarily, although there is some mixing and matching post-snap). He does like to mix in some man, especially on 3rd down, but usually you're getting some variation of zone.
-The blitzes are pretty simplistic, usually a LB just triggering straight downhill with the DL adjusting accordingly or a CB blitzing out of the slot. You rarely ever see anything like the dynamic blitzes and shifts that Zimmer would put together to manipulate protection schemes, with Eberflus it seems you usually have guys in relatively static positions in the back 7 and you'll get a random blitzer every now and again. It's not my preference exactly but it does seem to catch offenses off guard, almost like they're lulled into assuming that you'll only get 4 rushing.
-I think the scheme is pretty similar to what you get out of a guy like Fangio who relies on the front 4 to attack downhill while playing shell coverage behind it. Given how the blitzes usually come from the LB spot I think there's space for Overshown to excel if he can recover from his injury, but the scheme is going to rely heavily on the DL getting home, so I'd hope that the jackasses running the team realize the importance of re-signing a few of our DL free agents while also investing one of our top 2-3 picks in the unit.
-I don't think this is a great scheme fit for Jalon Walker, who really needs to be in a more exotic defense that mixes up alignments and allows guys to kind of float around a bit. Given that we already have one very undersized edge rusher in Parsons I think Walker would only be a "designated pass rusher" who plays maybe 30% or so of the snaps. There's obviously value in that but probably not enough to justify at 12. The only way he'd get on the field in this scheme 60-70% of the time would be if he played significant snaps at "off ball" LB, which i think would be a bit of a disservice to him given how the scheme operates.
-There are a couple interesting guys either out of a contract for the Bears, or in the last year of the deal who may be cut that I'd be interested in (and who would fit into how our cheap ass organization approaches FA). TJ Edwards and DeMarcus Walker both have 1 year left on their deals and Darrell Taylor is a UFA, I'd be interested in all of them with Edwards as a replacement for Kendricks and Walker/Taylor being rotational guys on the DL.
Here are some stats comparing alignments and blitz rates of Zimmer last year, the Bears last year, and Eberflus' last two years with the Colts, you can see how religiously Eberflus sticks to 4 down linemen compared to Zimmer who mixes it up a bit more:
Zimmer in 2024 - 67% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 8% 3-3-5, 5% other 3-man line, 23% blitz rate
Bears in 2024 - 75% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 5% other 3-man line, 22% blitz rate
Colts in 2021 (Eberflus last year as DC) - 77% 4-2-5, 21% 4-3-4, 15% blitz rate
Colts in 2020 - 79% 4-2-5, 20% 4-3-4, 14% blitz rate