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Friday Cowboys Riffing: Previewing the pivotal Sunday showdown in Philadelphia
By Bob Sturm Dec 20, 2019
146 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 44 days until Super Bowl 54 in Miami and only two days until the 3:25 pm Week 15 showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles in the city of Brotherly Love…
In the sports world, we tend to overstate everything possible to artificially build up stakes to a ridiculous level, so you won’t want to miss it. We say things like, “This is for all the marbles,” and “Things will never be the same.” Two hated rivals square off, with the winner moving on and the loser going home! SUNDAY!
There are times — not often, mind you — when it is all true. Every bit of the hype and excitement and buildup has led to this. Now, I can feel the lobs of sarcasm thrown all around me when two 7-7 teams square off for a divisional title of a division that, let’s face it, someone has to win. I get it. Neither of these teams have come close to fulfilling their August expectations on any level.
Still, here we go. It is Dallas at Philadelphia. Round 1 is already in the books, and Round 2 will very much decide whether the Cowboys can become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since 2004 or whether the Eagles will go marching on and salvage their season at the hands of their most hated rivals. SUNDAY!
Honestly, this reminds me of all of the time we spent this summer comparing the worthy adversaries who quarterback these two respective teams. The thought last spring was that Carson Wentz might get his mega-deal first, but it would surely set the template for what Dak Prescott would get during training camp. The contracts could not be the same, given that Wentz had a five-year rookie deal and Prescott just a four-year term, but the basic structure would put the numbers in the same basic arena. Then we add in Jared Goff for good measure, and the three full-time starting QBs from the 2016 draft would all be wealthy men.
Well, Goff and Wentz have both been to the bank with fresh trucks full of cash. We saw Goff look horrendous last week in Dallas, and we have certainly seen Wentz look equally incapable back in Week 7 in that same stadium. Prescott, meanwhile, warranted some peripheral MVP talk until he ran into that three-games-in-12-days free-fall around Thanksgiving, only to regain his footing with a very effective day at the office against the Rams.
There are a thousand ways to look at this game, for sure, but for me, it certainly seems to go back to the two young QBs who are tied at the hip forevermore. Prescott has an advantage in every conceivable statistic this season, but he has also played with healthy skill-position players most of the way. Wentz has taken a backseat, probably because wide receivers Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor have been hurt plenty, as have a number of different running backs along the way. Don’t get me wrong, there were times when Wentz looked lost without a compass, but his latest surge to get them into this spot is attributed largely to him thanks to the work he put in late with wins against the Giants and Redskins. “Sure, but it is just the Giants and Redskins,” you say. I agree. Neither team has done enough winning, and that puts the shoulder of blame back where it always is from local critics in each city: on these QBs. Homers are everywhere in this day and age, and yet, for various reasons, both of these quarterbacks’ fanbases seem to have serious doubts about their respective guy — something that is only compounded when people see the money, which Wentz has already been paid (Goff, too). Prescott will soon receive his own cash infusion, at a number that very well might exceed Wentz and Goff’s payouts.
Either way, this game is huge for both. If Dak Prescott loses, he will endure a season that dropped off several cliffs to its ultimate demise, which surely ends in a full-fledged administration change and perhaps even consideration of a QB franchise tag in the springtime.
If Carson Wentz loses arguably the biggest game he has ever played in, he would fall to 2-5 all-time against Prescott and Dallas, with one of the wins being a Week 17 contest when the Cowboys benched many regulars. Remember, he has never played in a playoff game, so this is basically that. He has been doing tons of heavy lifting with this ragtag bunch surrounding him at the skill positions (other than the established tight ends). He has been winning over some critics. But a home loss on Sunday against a reeling Cowboys squad would set that back tremendously.
This is a divisional showdown between hated rivals. But it is also a QB battle between two beat-up and bruised guys who are measured against each other and who both could really use the win to salvage a big part of a poor season.
“At least you beat the Eagles for the division crown.”
“At least you didn’t let the Cowboys win here and sent them home crying.”
SUNDAYYYYYYY!
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Sunday gives us yet another matchup between Kellen Moore and Jim Schwartz, and obviously, most observers were exceedingly impressed with Moore back in Week 7. (For that matter, he was no slouch last week against the Rams and Wade Phillips with the very impressive changeups he threw.)
However, there are more than a few reasons to be concerned with the way this offense has looked in many of its bigger road games. The Cowboys have played seven home games and seven on the road, and we have clearly seen a far higher level of production in those games at home. That isn’t necessarily the world’s biggest deal, but it is basically a touchdown per game from the offense plus six more first downs. These are massive gaps, and we also have seen a drop-off in play-action passing on the road, pre-snap motion on the road and the ability to sustain drives on the road.
If you want to dive a little deeper into it, subtract the two noon games. The other five road starts — in juiced-up, hostile environments — have even gone worse, with humbling experiences against the Jets, Saints, Patriots, Bears to go with the solitary win versus the Giants in a “late” start. The Cowboys have not looked the same on the road, and clearly the scene they will see on Sunday and the noise that stadium can generate is unlike anything they have encountered in a road venue this year
Here is what we expect Philadelphia’s defense to look like against the Cowboys’ 11 personnel in passing situations, when the Eagles like to play quite a bit of dime these days on third down:
Just like last year, nobody runs on the Eagles’ defense with much success. But, oddly, the front office never tried to overhaul the secondary after an atrocious 2018 — albeit one in which the unit was injured quite a bit, too. Still, they brought back a secondary that features Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox at corner. The numbers are better this year (as is the health), but I don’t believe any of them have demonstrated that they can cover very well.
The numbers indicate that they have seemed to change their defensive philosophy this year: Philadelphia has dramatically increased the amount of man coverage they are playing and the amount of pressure they bring. Last year, they blitzed less often than any team in the league and ranked in the bottom third in most man coverage. This year, with Jim Schwartz still at the wheel, it has jumped up to the 17th -most blitzes and the sixth-most man coverage. This can’t be an accident. They are willing to push the envelope more with far more blitzes from Malcolm Jenkins, Nigel Bradham, Nathan Gerry and even the deeper safety Rodney McLeod. This appears to have yielded very strong results, but like the Cowboys, they don’t actually play very many top quarterbacks with this schedule, so there may be some strength-of-opponents component to this, as well. Third-and-long, in particular, has shot up from 19.2 percent blitzes in 2018 to 40.2 percent in one season. Very interesting.
Statistically, everything on the defense is better than it was in 2018 aside from the red-zone TD efficiency, where they plummeted from first down to 24th. But, beyond that, everything is improved across the board or at least about the same. They have no massive liabilities like they had last year when everyone could slice them up through the air.
Meanwhile, Dallas is attempting not to fall victim to the dubious honor of accumulating gaudy offensive statistics that result in very little in terms of points and wins. They have an offense that appears to be at least “very good” at nearly every statistic of consequence and has not lost a significant amount of playing time to injury on this side of the ball, and yet here they stand on the edge of having everything collapse into a season when nothing was accomplished.
Someone else we should talk about is Amari Cooper. Here are Amari’s numbers when he is in Dallas versus on the road with the Cowboys. The contrast is stark.
These numbers are startling, for sure, but I think the difference might go back to the adventure and disposition of the play-calling and the entire offense. For whatever reason, the Cowboys get way more conservative when they leave home and revert to Feeding Zeke. But these numbers are all amazing across the board. Cooper certainly had a nice night in his only other Dallas visit to Philadelphia (6 catches for 75 yards) last November, and reprising that act will make everyone feel a lot better about the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Ezekiel Elliott vs. the Eagles Run Defense
Despite the Eagles’ fine rushing defense, we should point out they have never really shut down Ezekiel Elliott. In five career games against the Eagles, he has averaged 115 yards on the ground and 48 more through the air. I think we can say he freaks them out a bit when we talk about 160+ per game and 4.9 per carry over 118 rushing attempts, too. His work against the Eagles far exceeds that against other NFC East opponents. And, most importantly, the Cowboys have never lost a game to the Eagles in which he has played.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
Many analysts had this team in the playoffs and, possibly, the Super Bowl. They had a very strong offense, one seemingly deep at every position, but we have since learned that wide receiver was not deep at all, as they depended on the return of Desean Jackson only for him to get hurt again and end up with just 65 snaps this entire season. Alshon Jeffery only played in 10 games before hurting his foot and going to injured reserve, and Nelson Agholor was the healthiest of them all but now has been out a bit and was on a downward spiral, anyway. Beyond that, they have featured rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside, but his production has been very poor. Mack Hollins and Jordan Matthews were tried and underwhelmed, so now they are on to former Houston QB Greg Ward and Robert Davis at WR. It has been incredibly disappointing, to a point where they almost don’t use WRs much at all in these last few weeks. Instead, the offense seems to be all about running backs and tight ends. It is still relatively effective but features almost no vertical stretch at all.
Here is the Eagles’ offense on third down against the Cowboys’ nickel:
The Eagles offense has been mediocre this year, but that is to be expected when your skill positions have mostly featured tight ends and a revolving door at running back and wide receiver. They have been decidedly middle-of-the-road in almost every metric, with a few exceptions. An incredible run of efficiency on third down and in the red zone has kept them above water: They are somehow second in third downs and fifth in red-zone touchdowns. I’m not sure how they are pulling this off with nothing but Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Meanwhile, they are 24th in explosive plays, which makes sense given that they have nothing to scare secondaries aside from TE screens/hooks, etc. They basically have two groupings, and go back and forth between 11 and 12 personnel. They present almost no juice in either, with very a poor yards-per-play in both, which rank down in the bottom half of the league. It all is another season of big promise from an offense that is just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl and looks great on paper, but for the second straight year has not really materialized. Instead, the Eagles sit right at 23 or 24 points per game for two straight entire seasons.
Another big issue has been giveaways, as their 23 rank 22nd in the league. Most have been on fumbles lost, not interceptions, as Wentz is pretty smart about most of his throws. However, they are tied with the Giants for the league fumble lead, and Wentz trails only Daniel Jones for most fumbles lost by a player. 15 is a ridiculous number for any offense.
The Eagles’ offensive line has still been one of their greatest strengths, but it has had its ups and downs, as well. When they have their preferred starters on the field, though, most of the QB pressure comes through the inside thanks to issues at left guard — for years and years, they have had a revolving door at left guard in a somewhat similar fashion as the Cowboys — and perhaps a slight decline from the superb center Jason Kelce’s overall performance. With that being said, Kelce is still exceptional.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Lane Johnson or Halapoulivaati Vaitai vs. DeMarcus Lawrence
Lane Johnson’s injury — a high ankle sprain suffered two weeks ago — has caused a bit of consternation, as there are some who seem to want Andre Dillard to play LT and Jason Peters to move over to play RT (Peters has also volunteered to do this). Doug Pederson, however, seems to be more comfortable with TCU’s Hala Vaitai playing RT, leaving Peters at his normal LT position. That high ankle sprain looks bad, so I think Johnson is probably out. However, with the stakes as high as they are, maybe he will tough through it vs. DeMarcus Lawrence. The Lawrence storyline in this game is very similar to Fletcher Cox. We spend hundreds of words talking about the QB battle, but to be fair, both of the biggest contracts these teams have written prior to the Wentz deal were $100-plus million spent on their franchise-level game-wreckers on the defensive line. Both players are unreal talents who have been great for many years, and both had 10.5 sacks in 2018 alongside double-digit tackles for loss, too. But in 2019, with more attention — and in Lawrence’s case, certainly more expectation with the new deal — they’ve regressed a bit. Lawrence has just five sacks and Cox just 3.5. I have watched both all year, and they both remain fantastic players who attract a ton of attention, but it is also fair to say these game-wreckers have not wrecked games to their normal level all year. Might Sunday come down to which of these two superstars can find that one signature performance in the biggest moment? It appears both might be matched up against backups (Cox vs. Xavier Su’a-Filo and Lawrence vs. Vaitai). This is as good an opportunity as any.
THE PICK: Cowboys 21, Eagles 20,
Let’s be honest: This is a matter of who you believe is the better football team. The Cowboys have been looking forward to this game for many weeks, as they rightfully believed since very early in the season that there is but one game left that truly seems to matter: This one. I am terrified about what the coaching staff will do because one key is how they decide to treat first down. You want to feed Zeke and all, but you had better know that the Eagles are not going to concede much if you run it right at them. Elliott can be very effective in this matchup, but he must be paired with deception and crossing-up tendencies. More than anything, this has to be a situation when Prescott takes the game and the noise by the scruff of the neck and looks like the composed, veteran quarterback he often is rather than the rattled, erratic QB he has appeared to be in the team’s most recent stops at New England and Chicago. To win this game, the Cowboys need Dak and Zeke to bring their best performances possible. Defensively, I would consider a plan built around dealing with Ertz, but we should also know that Ertz and the Eagles have seen every idea possible. Perhaps the defensive game is merely about tackling and getting off the field on third down. Turnovers are as vital as ever, and this game can and will turn on one play, one kick or one fumbled snap.
I cannot wait. This game can be kicked off right now if they want, because most of us will be thinking of very little else between now and kickoff time. The division champion still may finish only 8-8 or 9-7, but this feels like a classic high-stakes game that will offer an incredible thrill of victory to the winners. Which, in turn, means the losers will no doubt suffer the discouraging fate of slipping into the new year considering massive, sweeping changes because 2019 was flat-out unacceptable.
When we meet again, the entire view of the season will have changed dramatically in one direction or the other.
Your guess is as good as mine. Try to enjoy the game!
By Bob Sturm Dec 20, 2019
146 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 44 days until Super Bowl 54 in Miami and only two days until the 3:25 pm Week 15 showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles in the city of Brotherly Love…
In the sports world, we tend to overstate everything possible to artificially build up stakes to a ridiculous level, so you won’t want to miss it. We say things like, “This is for all the marbles,” and “Things will never be the same.” Two hated rivals square off, with the winner moving on and the loser going home! SUNDAY!
There are times — not often, mind you — when it is all true. Every bit of the hype and excitement and buildup has led to this. Now, I can feel the lobs of sarcasm thrown all around me when two 7-7 teams square off for a divisional title of a division that, let’s face it, someone has to win. I get it. Neither of these teams have come close to fulfilling their August expectations on any level.
Still, here we go. It is Dallas at Philadelphia. Round 1 is already in the books, and Round 2 will very much decide whether the Cowboys can become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since 2004 or whether the Eagles will go marching on and salvage their season at the hands of their most hated rivals. SUNDAY!
Honestly, this reminds me of all of the time we spent this summer comparing the worthy adversaries who quarterback these two respective teams. The thought last spring was that Carson Wentz might get his mega-deal first, but it would surely set the template for what Dak Prescott would get during training camp. The contracts could not be the same, given that Wentz had a five-year rookie deal and Prescott just a four-year term, but the basic structure would put the numbers in the same basic arena. Then we add in Jared Goff for good measure, and the three full-time starting QBs from the 2016 draft would all be wealthy men.
Well, Goff and Wentz have both been to the bank with fresh trucks full of cash. We saw Goff look horrendous last week in Dallas, and we have certainly seen Wentz look equally incapable back in Week 7 in that same stadium. Prescott, meanwhile, warranted some peripheral MVP talk until he ran into that three-games-in-12-days free-fall around Thanksgiving, only to regain his footing with a very effective day at the office against the Rams.
There are a thousand ways to look at this game, for sure, but for me, it certainly seems to go back to the two young QBs who are tied at the hip forevermore. Prescott has an advantage in every conceivable statistic this season, but he has also played with healthy skill-position players most of the way. Wentz has taken a backseat, probably because wide receivers Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor have been hurt plenty, as have a number of different running backs along the way. Don’t get me wrong, there were times when Wentz looked lost without a compass, but his latest surge to get them into this spot is attributed largely to him thanks to the work he put in late with wins against the Giants and Redskins. “Sure, but it is just the Giants and Redskins,” you say. I agree. Neither team has done enough winning, and that puts the shoulder of blame back where it always is from local critics in each city: on these QBs. Homers are everywhere in this day and age, and yet, for various reasons, both of these quarterbacks’ fanbases seem to have serious doubts about their respective guy — something that is only compounded when people see the money, which Wentz has already been paid (Goff, too). Prescott will soon receive his own cash infusion, at a number that very well might exceed Wentz and Goff’s payouts.
Either way, this game is huge for both. If Dak Prescott loses, he will endure a season that dropped off several cliffs to its ultimate demise, which surely ends in a full-fledged administration change and perhaps even consideration of a QB franchise tag in the springtime.
If Carson Wentz loses arguably the biggest game he has ever played in, he would fall to 2-5 all-time against Prescott and Dallas, with one of the wins being a Week 17 contest when the Cowboys benched many regulars. Remember, he has never played in a playoff game, so this is basically that. He has been doing tons of heavy lifting with this ragtag bunch surrounding him at the skill positions (other than the established tight ends). He has been winning over some critics. But a home loss on Sunday against a reeling Cowboys squad would set that back tremendously.
This is a divisional showdown between hated rivals. But it is also a QB battle between two beat-up and bruised guys who are measured against each other and who both could really use the win to salvage a big part of a poor season.
“At least you beat the Eagles for the division crown.”
“At least you didn’t let the Cowboys win here and sent them home crying.”
SUNDAYYYYYYY!
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Sunday gives us yet another matchup between Kellen Moore and Jim Schwartz, and obviously, most observers were exceedingly impressed with Moore back in Week 7. (For that matter, he was no slouch last week against the Rams and Wade Phillips with the very impressive changeups he threw.)
However, there are more than a few reasons to be concerned with the way this offense has looked in many of its bigger road games. The Cowboys have played seven home games and seven on the road, and we have clearly seen a far higher level of production in those games at home. That isn’t necessarily the world’s biggest deal, but it is basically a touchdown per game from the offense plus six more first downs. These are massive gaps, and we also have seen a drop-off in play-action passing on the road, pre-snap motion on the road and the ability to sustain drives on the road.
If you want to dive a little deeper into it, subtract the two noon games. The other five road starts — in juiced-up, hostile environments — have even gone worse, with humbling experiences against the Jets, Saints, Patriots, Bears to go with the solitary win versus the Giants in a “late” start. The Cowboys have not looked the same on the road, and clearly the scene they will see on Sunday and the noise that stadium can generate is unlike anything they have encountered in a road venue this year
Here is what we expect Philadelphia’s defense to look like against the Cowboys’ 11 personnel in passing situations, when the Eagles like to play quite a bit of dime these days on third down:
Just like last year, nobody runs on the Eagles’ defense with much success. But, oddly, the front office never tried to overhaul the secondary after an atrocious 2018 — albeit one in which the unit was injured quite a bit, too. Still, they brought back a secondary that features Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox at corner. The numbers are better this year (as is the health), but I don’t believe any of them have demonstrated that they can cover very well.
The numbers indicate that they have seemed to change their defensive philosophy this year: Philadelphia has dramatically increased the amount of man coverage they are playing and the amount of pressure they bring. Last year, they blitzed less often than any team in the league and ranked in the bottom third in most man coverage. This year, with Jim Schwartz still at the wheel, it has jumped up to the 17th -most blitzes and the sixth-most man coverage. This can’t be an accident. They are willing to push the envelope more with far more blitzes from Malcolm Jenkins, Nigel Bradham, Nathan Gerry and even the deeper safety Rodney McLeod. This appears to have yielded very strong results, but like the Cowboys, they don’t actually play very many top quarterbacks with this schedule, so there may be some strength-of-opponents component to this, as well. Third-and-long, in particular, has shot up from 19.2 percent blitzes in 2018 to 40.2 percent in one season. Very interesting.
Statistically, everything on the defense is better than it was in 2018 aside from the red-zone TD efficiency, where they plummeted from first down to 24th. But, beyond that, everything is improved across the board or at least about the same. They have no massive liabilities like they had last year when everyone could slice them up through the air.
Meanwhile, Dallas is attempting not to fall victim to the dubious honor of accumulating gaudy offensive statistics that result in very little in terms of points and wins. They have an offense that appears to be at least “very good” at nearly every statistic of consequence and has not lost a significant amount of playing time to injury on this side of the ball, and yet here they stand on the edge of having everything collapse into a season when nothing was accomplished.
Someone else we should talk about is Amari Cooper. Here are Amari’s numbers when he is in Dallas versus on the road with the Cowboys. The contrast is stark.
These numbers are startling, for sure, but I think the difference might go back to the adventure and disposition of the play-calling and the entire offense. For whatever reason, the Cowboys get way more conservative when they leave home and revert to Feeding Zeke. But these numbers are all amazing across the board. Cooper certainly had a nice night in his only other Dallas visit to Philadelphia (6 catches for 75 yards) last November, and reprising that act will make everyone feel a lot better about the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Ezekiel Elliott vs. the Eagles Run Defense
Despite the Eagles’ fine rushing defense, we should point out they have never really shut down Ezekiel Elliott. In five career games against the Eagles, he has averaged 115 yards on the ground and 48 more through the air. I think we can say he freaks them out a bit when we talk about 160+ per game and 4.9 per carry over 118 rushing attempts, too. His work against the Eagles far exceeds that against other NFC East opponents. And, most importantly, the Cowboys have never lost a game to the Eagles in which he has played.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
Many analysts had this team in the playoffs and, possibly, the Super Bowl. They had a very strong offense, one seemingly deep at every position, but we have since learned that wide receiver was not deep at all, as they depended on the return of Desean Jackson only for him to get hurt again and end up with just 65 snaps this entire season. Alshon Jeffery only played in 10 games before hurting his foot and going to injured reserve, and Nelson Agholor was the healthiest of them all but now has been out a bit and was on a downward spiral, anyway. Beyond that, they have featured rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside, but his production has been very poor. Mack Hollins and Jordan Matthews were tried and underwhelmed, so now they are on to former Houston QB Greg Ward and Robert Davis at WR. It has been incredibly disappointing, to a point where they almost don’t use WRs much at all in these last few weeks. Instead, the offense seems to be all about running backs and tight ends. It is still relatively effective but features almost no vertical stretch at all.
Here is the Eagles’ offense on third down against the Cowboys’ nickel:
The Eagles offense has been mediocre this year, but that is to be expected when your skill positions have mostly featured tight ends and a revolving door at running back and wide receiver. They have been decidedly middle-of-the-road in almost every metric, with a few exceptions. An incredible run of efficiency on third down and in the red zone has kept them above water: They are somehow second in third downs and fifth in red-zone touchdowns. I’m not sure how they are pulling this off with nothing but Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Meanwhile, they are 24th in explosive plays, which makes sense given that they have nothing to scare secondaries aside from TE screens/hooks, etc. They basically have two groupings, and go back and forth between 11 and 12 personnel. They present almost no juice in either, with very a poor yards-per-play in both, which rank down in the bottom half of the league. It all is another season of big promise from an offense that is just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl and looks great on paper, but for the second straight year has not really materialized. Instead, the Eagles sit right at 23 or 24 points per game for two straight entire seasons.
Another big issue has been giveaways, as their 23 rank 22nd in the league. Most have been on fumbles lost, not interceptions, as Wentz is pretty smart about most of his throws. However, they are tied with the Giants for the league fumble lead, and Wentz trails only Daniel Jones for most fumbles lost by a player. 15 is a ridiculous number for any offense.
The Eagles’ offensive line has still been one of their greatest strengths, but it has had its ups and downs, as well. When they have their preferred starters on the field, though, most of the QB pressure comes through the inside thanks to issues at left guard — for years and years, they have had a revolving door at left guard in a somewhat similar fashion as the Cowboys — and perhaps a slight decline from the superb center Jason Kelce’s overall performance. With that being said, Kelce is still exceptional.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Lane Johnson or Halapoulivaati Vaitai vs. DeMarcus Lawrence
Lane Johnson’s injury — a high ankle sprain suffered two weeks ago — has caused a bit of consternation, as there are some who seem to want Andre Dillard to play LT and Jason Peters to move over to play RT (Peters has also volunteered to do this). Doug Pederson, however, seems to be more comfortable with TCU’s Hala Vaitai playing RT, leaving Peters at his normal LT position. That high ankle sprain looks bad, so I think Johnson is probably out. However, with the stakes as high as they are, maybe he will tough through it vs. DeMarcus Lawrence. The Lawrence storyline in this game is very similar to Fletcher Cox. We spend hundreds of words talking about the QB battle, but to be fair, both of the biggest contracts these teams have written prior to the Wentz deal were $100-plus million spent on their franchise-level game-wreckers on the defensive line. Both players are unreal talents who have been great for many years, and both had 10.5 sacks in 2018 alongside double-digit tackles for loss, too. But in 2019, with more attention — and in Lawrence’s case, certainly more expectation with the new deal — they’ve regressed a bit. Lawrence has just five sacks and Cox just 3.5. I have watched both all year, and they both remain fantastic players who attract a ton of attention, but it is also fair to say these game-wreckers have not wrecked games to their normal level all year. Might Sunday come down to which of these two superstars can find that one signature performance in the biggest moment? It appears both might be matched up against backups (Cox vs. Xavier Su’a-Filo and Lawrence vs. Vaitai). This is as good an opportunity as any.
THE PICK: Cowboys 21, Eagles 20,
Let’s be honest: This is a matter of who you believe is the better football team. The Cowboys have been looking forward to this game for many weeks, as they rightfully believed since very early in the season that there is but one game left that truly seems to matter: This one. I am terrified about what the coaching staff will do because one key is how they decide to treat first down. You want to feed Zeke and all, but you had better know that the Eagles are not going to concede much if you run it right at them. Elliott can be very effective in this matchup, but he must be paired with deception and crossing-up tendencies. More than anything, this has to be a situation when Prescott takes the game and the noise by the scruff of the neck and looks like the composed, veteran quarterback he often is rather than the rattled, erratic QB he has appeared to be in the team’s most recent stops at New England and Chicago. To win this game, the Cowboys need Dak and Zeke to bring their best performances possible. Defensively, I would consider a plan built around dealing with Ertz, but we should also know that Ertz and the Eagles have seen every idea possible. Perhaps the defensive game is merely about tackling and getting off the field on third down. Turnovers are as vital as ever, and this game can and will turn on one play, one kick or one fumbled snap.
I cannot wait. This game can be kicked off right now if they want, because most of us will be thinking of very little else between now and kickoff time. The division champion still may finish only 8-8 or 9-7, but this feels like a classic high-stakes game that will offer an incredible thrill of victory to the winners. Which, in turn, means the losers will no doubt suffer the discouraging fate of slipping into the new year considering massive, sweeping changes because 2019 was flat-out unacceptable.
When we meet again, the entire view of the season will have changed dramatically in one direction or the other.
Your guess is as good as mine. Try to enjoy the game!