Cowboys sign Prescott to a 4 year contract
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Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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I just realized I misunderstood Sturm's tweet. I thought he said Dak's cap % will take a massive jump in year 2, but he's talking about the actual cap. That appears to be true.
He's saying Dak's cap numbers are manageable in this deal and I agree. Better than I was expecting.
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but he is no Sam Darnold.
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Dak Prescott gambled on himself and ended up getting everything he wanted from Cowboys
By Jon Machota Mar 8, 2021
Although he might not have always believed it, Dak Prescott continually said over the past few years that he was confident he’d eventually get a long-term contract from the Cowboys.
It finally happened Monday. The team’s starting quarterback for the past five years agreed to a four-year deal worth $160 million with $126 million guaranteed, according to a source.
It all came together a day before the NFL’s deadline to franchise tag players. The deal also includes a $66 million signing bonus, $75 million in the first year, a no-trade clause and a no-franchise tag provision.
The Cowboys have scheduled a news conference to officially announce the new contract on Wednesday.
“I’m excited as hell to be a Dallas Cowboy,” Prescott said during training camp last August. “I have been a fan of this organization and fan of this program for years. I love the opportunity and the platform that I get to be the quarterback here. I love this team. I’m excited about what we can do and accomplish this year.
“I hope and believe I will be a Dallas Cowboy for the rest of my career.”
The 27-year-old will have that job for at least four more years.
The Cowboys understood by being unable to come to an agreement with Prescott the previous two years that he wasn’t going to remain at a bargain price. After all, that’s what he was during the previous five seasons. The fourth-round pick in 2016 averaged less than a million dollars per year his first three seasons in the NFL. That increased to a little more than $2 million by Year 4. He finally received a significant contract last season, playing under the fully guaranteed $31.4 million franchise tag. He’ll now make more in one season than he did in the previous five combined.
And that’s the going price for one of the league’s top starting quarterbacks. Prescott’s new contract will average $40 million per season, putting him behind only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, whose deal averages $45 million. Right behind Prescott is Houston’s Deshaun Watson at $39 million per season and Seattle’s Russell Wilson at $35 million per season.
The next top quarterbacks to sign new deals — Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, etc. — will likely move past Prescott’s number. That’s just how the franchise quarterback market works. It’s by far the most important position so they receive by far the biggest contracts. And that market shows no signs of going in the other direction.
There wasn’t much of an alternative for the Cowboys. Team owner and general manager Jerry Jones remembers what it was like not having a franchise quarterback. Dallas experienced it after Troy Aikman retired following the 2000 season. For the next five years, the Cowboys started Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf, Clint Stoerner, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson and Drew Bledsoe before finally finding their next franchise quarterback in Tony Romo.
As Jones has famously said, at his age, he doesn’t have time to have a bad time. The 78-year-old felt so good about the Cowboys’ roster following the 2019 season that he didn’t even interview an assistant coach or a college coach to replace Jason Garrett. He wanted an established NFL head coach who could immediately guide the team to deep playoff runs. While that didn’t pan out in Mike McCarthy’s first season, it was a sign that Dallas was highly unlikely to start rebuilding with a young draft pick at quarterback if the Cowboys didn’t think they could keep Prescott. There weren’t many other good options had they not gotten a new deal done with Prescott.
ESPN reported that Prescott’s deal is actually a six-year contract with two voidable years at the end to allow Dallas the ability to spread out the cap hit over a longer period of time, making his 2021 cap hit only $22.2 million. That hit would have been $37.7 million if Prescott had played under a second franchise tag.
That’s a significant reduction for a year when the cap is expected to be reduced to around $180 million after it was $198.2 million in 2020. The cap is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
It’s pretty clear that Prescott’s side won this deal. He had almost all of the leverage, and the Cowboys knew it. Not even a season-ending severe ankle injury in Week 5 drove down Prescott’s price. In hindsight, the Cowboys should have gotten this deal done two years ago. They waited and the price continued to increase. And it would have been even more at this time next year if he reached the open market.
Prescott gambled and ended up with the money and the team he wanted to be with the entire time. Now he has to play the best ball of his career. There’s always pressure on the starting quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. There will be even more now that he’s the highest-paid player in franchise history.
“I grew up wanting to be a Dallas Cowboy, and I am,” Prescott said in August. “And I’ve got dreams of being a Dallas Cowboy till I’m done throwing the football.”
By Jon Machota Mar 8, 2021
Although he might not have always believed it, Dak Prescott continually said over the past few years that he was confident he’d eventually get a long-term contract from the Cowboys.
It finally happened Monday. The team’s starting quarterback for the past five years agreed to a four-year deal worth $160 million with $126 million guaranteed, according to a source.
It all came together a day before the NFL’s deadline to franchise tag players. The deal also includes a $66 million signing bonus, $75 million in the first year, a no-trade clause and a no-franchise tag provision.
The Cowboys have scheduled a news conference to officially announce the new contract on Wednesday.
“I’m excited as hell to be a Dallas Cowboy,” Prescott said during training camp last August. “I have been a fan of this organization and fan of this program for years. I love the opportunity and the platform that I get to be the quarterback here. I love this team. I’m excited about what we can do and accomplish this year.
“I hope and believe I will be a Dallas Cowboy for the rest of my career.”
The 27-year-old will have that job for at least four more years.
The Cowboys understood by being unable to come to an agreement with Prescott the previous two years that he wasn’t going to remain at a bargain price. After all, that’s what he was during the previous five seasons. The fourth-round pick in 2016 averaged less than a million dollars per year his first three seasons in the NFL. That increased to a little more than $2 million by Year 4. He finally received a significant contract last season, playing under the fully guaranteed $31.4 million franchise tag. He’ll now make more in one season than he did in the previous five combined.
And that’s the going price for one of the league’s top starting quarterbacks. Prescott’s new contract will average $40 million per season, putting him behind only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, whose deal averages $45 million. Right behind Prescott is Houston’s Deshaun Watson at $39 million per season and Seattle’s Russell Wilson at $35 million per season.
The next top quarterbacks to sign new deals — Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, etc. — will likely move past Prescott’s number. That’s just how the franchise quarterback market works. It’s by far the most important position so they receive by far the biggest contracts. And that market shows no signs of going in the other direction.
There wasn’t much of an alternative for the Cowboys. Team owner and general manager Jerry Jones remembers what it was like not having a franchise quarterback. Dallas experienced it after Troy Aikman retired following the 2000 season. For the next five years, the Cowboys started Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf, Clint Stoerner, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson and Drew Bledsoe before finally finding their next franchise quarterback in Tony Romo.
As Jones has famously said, at his age, he doesn’t have time to have a bad time. The 78-year-old felt so good about the Cowboys’ roster following the 2019 season that he didn’t even interview an assistant coach or a college coach to replace Jason Garrett. He wanted an established NFL head coach who could immediately guide the team to deep playoff runs. While that didn’t pan out in Mike McCarthy’s first season, it was a sign that Dallas was highly unlikely to start rebuilding with a young draft pick at quarterback if the Cowboys didn’t think they could keep Prescott. There weren’t many other good options had they not gotten a new deal done with Prescott.
ESPN reported that Prescott’s deal is actually a six-year contract with two voidable years at the end to allow Dallas the ability to spread out the cap hit over a longer period of time, making his 2021 cap hit only $22.2 million. That hit would have been $37.7 million if Prescott had played under a second franchise tag.
That’s a significant reduction for a year when the cap is expected to be reduced to around $180 million after it was $198.2 million in 2020. The cap is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
It’s pretty clear that Prescott’s side won this deal. He had almost all of the leverage, and the Cowboys knew it. Not even a season-ending severe ankle injury in Week 5 drove down Prescott’s price. In hindsight, the Cowboys should have gotten this deal done two years ago. They waited and the price continued to increase. And it would have been even more at this time next year if he reached the open market.
Prescott gambled and ended up with the money and the team he wanted to be with the entire time. Now he has to play the best ball of his career. There’s always pressure on the starting quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. There will be even more now that he’s the highest-paid player in franchise history.
“I grew up wanting to be a Dallas Cowboy, and I am,” Prescott said in August. “And I’ve got dreams of being a Dallas Cowboy till I’m done throwing the football.”
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Sando: Blame Jerry Jones, not Dak Prescott, when the Dallas Cowboys fall short
By Mike Sando Mar 8, 2021
Jerry Jones’ bronze bust resides in the Pro Football Hall of Fame for two main reasons. Transforming a declining Dallas Cowboys franchise into a three-time Super Bowl winner in the 1990s was an important part of Jones’ Hall candidacy, but it might not have been enough on its own. Without question, Jones’ record as a business visionary who expanded broadcast and other revenues for the league proved critical in securing football immortality for the Cowboys’ iconic owner. As much as anyone, Jerry Jones grew the modern NFL money machine into the $15 billion annual enterprise that it is today.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys’ on-field prospects, Jones keeps losing important player contract negotiations. Trampled by Tony Romo years ago, crushed by Ezekiel Elliott more recently and steamrolled by Dak Prescott this week, Jones is cementing his legacy as an owner who secured a spot in Canton despite his work in the GM role. He’ll keep winning at the gate, and perhaps that is what matters most to him, but this new four-year, $160 million deal with Prescott will be difficult to overcome.
Agents work hard to portray the deals they strike in a favorable light, to help with recruiting. Todd France, who handled the Prescott negotiation, needed little spin for this one. He secured the four-year structure Prescott wanted all along, when the Cowboys preferred five years. He also secured a no-trade clause and, critically, a ban on the Cowboys using the franchise tag for Prescott in the future. That means Prescott, 27, can explore free agency upon completion of this deal if he chooses. Prescott gets the No. 2 average per year (APY) behind Patrick Mahomes, a relatively short contract duration, control over where he goes in any trade and the ability to reach free agency in his age-31 season.
The Cowboys have misplayed this situation throughout. Jones and the rest of the league misevaluated Prescott in the 2016 draft, when the Cowboys tried trading up for Paxton Lynch in the first round, only to have the Denver Broncos outmaneuver them. Jones then rebounded with Prescott in the fourth round and won big when the Mississippi State star proved to be a worthy successor to Romo. But the offensive supporting cast around Prescott was unusually strong through the start of the quarterback’s career, complicating efforts to determine how well Prescott might fare if asked to shoulder more of the load.
Jones wasn’t initially willing to go all-in on long-term deal. Prescott wasn’t willing to settle for a team-friendly structure. Here we are in 2021, with the Cowboys entering into a nearly top-of-market deal with a player they have seemed to like but not love.
Dallas could not win big with Prescott playing on a cheap rookie deal and the Cowboys ranking 22nd (2016), 24th (2017) and 10th (2018) on defense using TruMedia’s expected points added (EPA) model. How are the Cowboys going to win big with Prescott ranking second in APY among quarterbacks on a team with a defense that ranked 24th last season? The answer is, they are not unless they draft incredibly well and/or Prescott performs like a top-five quarterback. On that last part, there seem to be many more people in media than inside the league who see Prescott in that light.
The 50 coaches and evaluators polled for my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project last summer ranked Prescott 12th among veteran starting quarterbacks. That placed Prescott toward the bottom of the second tier. Coaches and evaluators had ranked Prescott between 14th and 17th previously, which placed him in Tier 3. Prescott might have been ascending early last season before suffering a broken and dislocated ankle, but it’s safe to assume the league will see him roughly the same in 2021 as in the recent past. Perhaps the league is mistakenly clinging to draft-day evaluations of Prescott. The Cowboys must be hoping so.
Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that Prescott enters 2021 as a Tier 2 quarterback ranked outside the top eight veteran starters in the 32-team league. It would mark the 10th time since 2014, the first year of my Quarterback Tiers survey, that such a player entered a season while commanding one of the five largest APYs at the position. Five of the previous nine finished 8-8 or better, but in every case, those teams’ defenses ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA. The four teams with losing records ranked 23rd on average defensively. The Cowboys are much closer to that second group of teams with good quarterbacks earning great money in the absence of the defensive support needed to win anyway. The table below features a closer look at the other nine, mindful that the 2018 San Francisco 49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo for only three games:
Prescott/Cowboys Comps Since 2014
It could have been worse for the Cowboys. Prescott could have pushed Jones even closer to the brink by playing out the 2021 season on the $38 million franchise tag. That would have pushed the quarterback’s salary to a prohibitive $54 million in 2022 if the Cowboys tried to use the franchise tag for him after this coming season. Prescott’s new contract assures that will not happen. It also assures the Cowboys will have an even harder time ending their streak of 25 consecutive seasons without reaching further than even the divisional playoff round.
By Mike Sando Mar 8, 2021
Jerry Jones’ bronze bust resides in the Pro Football Hall of Fame for two main reasons. Transforming a declining Dallas Cowboys franchise into a three-time Super Bowl winner in the 1990s was an important part of Jones’ Hall candidacy, but it might not have been enough on its own. Without question, Jones’ record as a business visionary who expanded broadcast and other revenues for the league proved critical in securing football immortality for the Cowboys’ iconic owner. As much as anyone, Jerry Jones grew the modern NFL money machine into the $15 billion annual enterprise that it is today.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys’ on-field prospects, Jones keeps losing important player contract negotiations. Trampled by Tony Romo years ago, crushed by Ezekiel Elliott more recently and steamrolled by Dak Prescott this week, Jones is cementing his legacy as an owner who secured a spot in Canton despite his work in the GM role. He’ll keep winning at the gate, and perhaps that is what matters most to him, but this new four-year, $160 million deal with Prescott will be difficult to overcome.
Agents work hard to portray the deals they strike in a favorable light, to help with recruiting. Todd France, who handled the Prescott negotiation, needed little spin for this one. He secured the four-year structure Prescott wanted all along, when the Cowboys preferred five years. He also secured a no-trade clause and, critically, a ban on the Cowboys using the franchise tag for Prescott in the future. That means Prescott, 27, can explore free agency upon completion of this deal if he chooses. Prescott gets the No. 2 average per year (APY) behind Patrick Mahomes, a relatively short contract duration, control over where he goes in any trade and the ability to reach free agency in his age-31 season.
The Cowboys have misplayed this situation throughout. Jones and the rest of the league misevaluated Prescott in the 2016 draft, when the Cowboys tried trading up for Paxton Lynch in the first round, only to have the Denver Broncos outmaneuver them. Jones then rebounded with Prescott in the fourth round and won big when the Mississippi State star proved to be a worthy successor to Romo. But the offensive supporting cast around Prescott was unusually strong through the start of the quarterback’s career, complicating efforts to determine how well Prescott might fare if asked to shoulder more of the load.
Jones wasn’t initially willing to go all-in on long-term deal. Prescott wasn’t willing to settle for a team-friendly structure. Here we are in 2021, with the Cowboys entering into a nearly top-of-market deal with a player they have seemed to like but not love.
Dallas could not win big with Prescott playing on a cheap rookie deal and the Cowboys ranking 22nd (2016), 24th (2017) and 10th (2018) on defense using TruMedia’s expected points added (EPA) model. How are the Cowboys going to win big with Prescott ranking second in APY among quarterbacks on a team with a defense that ranked 24th last season? The answer is, they are not unless they draft incredibly well and/or Prescott performs like a top-five quarterback. On that last part, there seem to be many more people in media than inside the league who see Prescott in that light.
The 50 coaches and evaluators polled for my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project last summer ranked Prescott 12th among veteran starting quarterbacks. That placed Prescott toward the bottom of the second tier. Coaches and evaluators had ranked Prescott between 14th and 17th previously, which placed him in Tier 3. Prescott might have been ascending early last season before suffering a broken and dislocated ankle, but it’s safe to assume the league will see him roughly the same in 2021 as in the recent past. Perhaps the league is mistakenly clinging to draft-day evaluations of Prescott. The Cowboys must be hoping so.
Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that Prescott enters 2021 as a Tier 2 quarterback ranked outside the top eight veteran starters in the 32-team league. It would mark the 10th time since 2014, the first year of my Quarterback Tiers survey, that such a player entered a season while commanding one of the five largest APYs at the position. Five of the previous nine finished 8-8 or better, but in every case, those teams’ defenses ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA. The four teams with losing records ranked 23rd on average defensively. The Cowboys are much closer to that second group of teams with good quarterbacks earning great money in the absence of the defensive support needed to win anyway. The table below features a closer look at the other nine, mindful that the 2018 San Francisco 49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo for only three games:
Prescott/Cowboys Comps Since 2014
| QB | SEASON | TEAM W-L | DEF RANK |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jared Goff | 2020 | 10-6 | 1 |
 Kirk Cousins | 2018 | 8-7-1 | 3 |
 Joe Flacco | 2016 | 8-8 | 8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2019 | 10-6 | 9 |
| Joe Flacco | 2014 | 10-6 | 9 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2017 | 7-9 | 11 |
 Matt Ryan | 2019 | 7-9 | 23 |
 Jimmy Garoppolo | 2018 | 4-12 | 27 |
 Eli Manning | 2015 | 6-10 | 30 |
It could have been worse for the Cowboys. Prescott could have pushed Jones even closer to the brink by playing out the 2021 season on the $38 million franchise tag. That would have pushed the quarterback’s salary to a prohibitive $54 million in 2022 if the Cowboys tried to use the franchise tag for him after this coming season. Prescott’s new contract assures that will not happen. It also assures the Cowboys will have an even harder time ending their streak of 25 consecutive seasons without reaching further than even the divisional playoff round.
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Grading Dak Prescott’s Cowboys mega-deal: NFL free agency grades
By Sheil Kapadia Mar 8, 2021
With NFL free agency set to begin on March 17, this is where you can find analysis of every noteworthy deal that is signed. Some major agreements have been reached well in advance. Many of the top 150 free agents available are set to join the list — and report cards — soon.
March 8
The Cowboys’ $160 million deal with Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was not going to reach the open market. But what was previously unclear was whether he’d play 2021 on a franchise tag or a long-term contract. Now there is an answer. Prescott has agreed to a four-year, $160 million deal to stay in Dallas.
Prescott had all the leverage, and he exercised it well. He could have played next season on the franchise tag and then hit free agency in 2022. The Cowboys had to incentivize him to sign a long-term deal. Per NFL Network, Prescott will receive a $66 million signing bonus and $75 million in year one of his deal. And he’ll receive $126 million guaranteed. In NFL history, only Patrick Mahomes has received more guaranteed money. Prescott also gets a no-trade clause and a no-tag provision. Bottom line: It’s a home run deal for him.
As for the Cowboys, they cost themselves by waiting until this offseason to get a long-term deal done. They used the tag last offseason and had to pay top of the market this offseason. In the unlikely event that Prescott struggles, their options are limited, given his no-trade clause. And Prescott will have leverage during the next negotiations, given that he will be just 31 when he is scheduled to hit free agency again in 2025.
Having said that, the surest path to sustained success is to build an efficient offense. The Cowboys’ offense ranked third in DVOA with Prescott in 2016, 10th in 2017 and second in 2019. Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks.
There are no sure things, but as far as huge quarterback contracts go, this should be a relatively safe one. The Cowboys’ offense with Prescott offers a high floor and a high ceiling. And given where the Cowboys were this offseason, they really had only two options. One was to let Prescott play 2021 on the franchise tag, which would have meant potentially losing him next offseason. The other was to pay him at the top of the market. They chose the latter.
The Cowboys should have a top-10 quarterback for the next four seasons, and they can now better chart their course toward Super Bowl contention. But they don’t get any smiley-face stickers, given that they failed to get the deal done in previous offseasons and ended up having to pay at the top of the quarterback market.
Grade: B-
By Sheil Kapadia Mar 8, 2021
With NFL free agency set to begin on March 17, this is where you can find analysis of every noteworthy deal that is signed. Some major agreements have been reached well in advance. Many of the top 150 free agents available are set to join the list — and report cards — soon.
March 8
The Cowboys’ $160 million deal with Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was not going to reach the open market. But what was previously unclear was whether he’d play 2021 on a franchise tag or a long-term contract. Now there is an answer. Prescott has agreed to a four-year, $160 million deal to stay in Dallas.
Prescott had all the leverage, and he exercised it well. He could have played next season on the franchise tag and then hit free agency in 2022. The Cowboys had to incentivize him to sign a long-term deal. Per NFL Network, Prescott will receive a $66 million signing bonus and $75 million in year one of his deal. And he’ll receive $126 million guaranteed. In NFL history, only Patrick Mahomes has received more guaranteed money. Prescott also gets a no-trade clause and a no-tag provision. Bottom line: It’s a home run deal for him.
As for the Cowboys, they cost themselves by waiting until this offseason to get a long-term deal done. They used the tag last offseason and had to pay top of the market this offseason. In the unlikely event that Prescott struggles, their options are limited, given his no-trade clause. And Prescott will have leverage during the next negotiations, given that he will be just 31 when he is scheduled to hit free agency again in 2025.
Having said that, the surest path to sustained success is to build an efficient offense. The Cowboys’ offense ranked third in DVOA with Prescott in 2016, 10th in 2017 and second in 2019. Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks.
There are no sure things, but as far as huge quarterback contracts go, this should be a relatively safe one. The Cowboys’ offense with Prescott offers a high floor and a high ceiling. And given where the Cowboys were this offseason, they really had only two options. One was to let Prescott play 2021 on the franchise tag, which would have meant potentially losing him next offseason. The other was to pay him at the top of the market. They chose the latter.
The Cowboys should have a top-10 quarterback for the next four seasons, and they can now better chart their course toward Super Bowl contention. But they don’t get any smiley-face stickers, given that they failed to get the deal done in previous offseasons and ended up having to pay at the top of the quarterback market.
Grade: B-
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The condition of his ankle is the great unknown.
He's not the QB who will put the team on his back and carry them to a Super Bowl, but he is the leader who can hold players accountable and help push others to do better.
He's won me over the last couple years. Zeke carried the team early on, but this is Dak's team no question about it.
If the front office will build the man a defense, we're looking at our best shot since 2014, maybe 2007.
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Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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I'm not sure who Mike Sando is, but this is a terrible take.Sando: Blame Jerry Jones, not Dak Prescott, when the Dallas Cowboys fall short
By Mike Sando Mar 8, 2021
Jerry Jones’ bronze bust resides in the Pro Football Hall of Fame for two main reasons. Transforming a declining Dallas Cowboys franchise into a three-time Super Bowl winner in the 1990s was an important part of Jones’ Hall candidacy, but it might not have been enough on its own. Without question, Jones’ record as a business visionary who expanded broadcast and other revenues for the league proved critical in securing football immortality for the Cowboys’ iconic owner. As much as anyone, Jerry Jones grew the modern NFL money machine into the $15 billion annual enterprise that it is today.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys’ on-field prospects, Jones keeps losing important player contract negotiations. Trampled by Tony Romo years ago, crushed by Ezekiel Elliott more recently and steamrolled by Dak Prescott this week, Jones is cementing his legacy as an owner who secured a spot in Canton despite his work in the GM role. He’ll keep winning at the gate, and perhaps that is what matters most to him, but this new four-year, $160 million deal with Prescott will be difficult to overcome.
Agents work hard to portray the deals they strike in a favorable light, to help with recruiting. Todd France, who handled the Prescott negotiation, needed little spin for this one. He secured the four-year structure Prescott wanted all along, when the Cowboys preferred five years. He also secured a no-trade clause and, critically, a ban on the Cowboys using the franchise tag for Prescott in the future. That means Prescott, 27, can explore free agency upon completion of this deal if he chooses. Prescott gets the No. 2 average per year (APY) behind Patrick Mahomes, a relatively short contract duration, control over where he goes in any trade and the ability to reach free agency in his age-31 season.
The Cowboys have misplayed this situation throughout. Jones and the rest of the league misevaluated Prescott in the 2016 draft, when the Cowboys tried trading up for Paxton Lynch in the first round, only to have the Denver Broncos outmaneuver them. Jones then rebounded with Prescott in the fourth round and won big when the Mississippi State star proved to be a worthy successor to Romo. But the offensive supporting cast around Prescott was unusually strong through the start of the quarterback’s career, complicating efforts to determine how well Prescott might fare if asked to shoulder more of the load.
Jones wasn’t initially willing to go all-in on long-term deal. Prescott wasn’t willing to settle for a team-friendly structure. Here we are in 2021, with the Cowboys entering into a nearly top-of-market deal with a player they have seemed to like but not love.
Dallas could not win big with Prescott playing on a cheap rookie deal and the Cowboys ranking 22nd (2016), 24th (2017) and 10th (2018) on defense using TruMedia’s expected points added (EPA) model. How are the Cowboys going to win big with Prescott ranking second in APY among quarterbacks on a team with a defense that ranked 24th last season? The answer is, they are not unless they draft incredibly well and/or Prescott performs like a top-five quarterback. On that last part, there seem to be many more people in media than inside the league who see Prescott in that light.
The 50 coaches and evaluators polled for my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project last summer ranked Prescott 12th among veteran starting quarterbacks. That placed Prescott toward the bottom of the second tier. Coaches and evaluators had ranked Prescott between 14th and 17th previously, which placed him in Tier 3. Prescott might have been ascending early last season before suffering a broken and dislocated ankle, but it’s safe to assume the league will see him roughly the same in 2021 as in the recent past. Perhaps the league is mistakenly clinging to draft-day evaluations of Prescott. The Cowboys must be hoping so.
Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that Prescott enters 2021 as a Tier 2 quarterback ranked outside the top eight veteran starters in the 32-team league. It would mark the 10th time since 2014, the first year of my Quarterback Tiers survey, that such a player entered a season while commanding one of the five largest APYs at the position. Five of the previous nine finished 8-8 or better, but in every case, those teams’ defenses ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA. The four teams with losing records ranked 23rd on average defensively. The Cowboys are much closer to that second group of teams with good quarterbacks earning great money in the absence of the defensive support needed to win anyway. The table below features a closer look at the other nine, mindful that the 2018 San Francisco 49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo for only three games:
Prescott/Cowboys Comps Since 2014
It could have been worse for the Cowboys. Prescott could have pushed Jones even closer to the brink by playing out the 2021 season on the $38 million franchise tag. That would have pushed the quarterback’s salary to a prohibitive $54 million in 2022 if the Cowboys tried to use the franchise tag for him after this coming season. Prescott’s new contract assures that will not happen. It also assures the Cowboys will have an even harder time ending their streak of 25 consecutive seasons without reaching further than even the divisional playoff round.
QB SEASON TEAM W-L DEF RANK 2020 10-6 1 2018 8-7-1 3 2016 8-8 8 2019 10-6 9 2014 10-6 9 2017 7-9 11 2019 7-9 23 2018 4-12 27 2015 6-10 30
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Yeah, after reading the title I thought the article was going to be about Jerry not spending in FA, but nope. Dumb take instead.
Genghis Khan
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And that 1 QB wasn't a first overall pick or even a first rounder.
There might be 4 QBs going top 10 this year. One of them might even be available at our pick. And I bet at least half of them are busts. Maybe more. Maybe even none of them make it.
Dipping back into the draft in the hopes of finding a reasonably good QB at a bargain price was never a good option.
Genghis Khan
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I was really starting to wonder if anyone would get it.I just got this.
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 46,505
While this is all true, the cowboys got cap flexibility, which is what they said they wanted. That 22.5 million dollar first year cap hit is a big win for both sides.
A lot of people are eviscerating the Joneses and that's fine. This should have been done a year ago and they'd have saved money.
But it definitely should be noted that the franchise is not a big loser on this deal. That first year cap hit is pretty important.
By the time the sticker price on the deal goes into the stratosphere the cap will too. This is actually decent.
No question it could have been better, but it was starting to look like it might be a lot worse. Instead it's pretty manageable.
Simpleton
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 21,487
You have to be a literal moron to be upset with this deal.
I get being upset that the front office didn't get things squared away last year and ended up paying a premium but as things stood yesterday the team had 3 options: 1. Pay him what he wants, 2. Trade him, 3. Lose him for nothing in 2022 or end up extending him for even more than you would pay him today.
I get the argument of wanting to trade him, I've been saying since this time last year that they need to explore it, but given the current landscape the eventual outcome is definitely palatable. Not great or celebration-worthy, but it's palatable.
I get being upset that the front office didn't get things squared away last year and ended up paying a premium but as things stood yesterday the team had 3 options: 1. Pay him what he wants, 2. Trade him, 3. Lose him for nothing in 2022 or end up extending him for even more than you would pay him today.
I get the argument of wanting to trade him, I've been saying since this time last year that they need to explore it, but given the current landscape the eventual outcome is definitely palatable. Not great or celebration-worthy, but it's palatable.