Cowboys sign Prescott to a 4 year contract
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Dak Prescott could use the Kirk Cousins playbook out of Dallas: The Cowboys’ offseason reality
By Mike Sando 3h ago
Russell Wilson is exerting public pressure on the Seattle Seahawks to increase his influence. Deshaun Watson is demanding a trade from the Houston Texans. Matthew Stafford wanted out of Detroit and secured a trade to the Los Angeles Rams. Carson Wentz wanted to leave Philadelphia for Indianapolis and got his way. Dak Prescott wants … what, exactly?
“Everyone else is complaining,” an NFL team exec said. “Dak is kind of lost in this.”
Lost, but in position to win big. At a time when high-profile NFL quarterbacks are asserting themselves, the passer possessing greater leverage than all of them is lurking silently.
Prescott might as well be standing in the pocket, patting the football over and over, without feeling even a hint of pressure closing in around him. He is either going to sign a massive extension with the Dallas Cowboys, receive a one-year offer for $37.7 million as a franchise player or reach free agency beginning March 17. Those are attractive options for a productive 27-year-old quarterback with two Pro Bowls on his résumé, even with Prescott coming off a serious ankle injury.
Though largely invisible so far this offseason, Prescott really is the most fascinating NFL quarterback for reasons that separate him from the guys making bigger headlines. The Kirk Cousins playbook is open for all to see. Will Prescott follow it out of Dallas?
1. Free agency is actually within Prescott’s reach
Watson is signed through 2026, Wentz through 2025, Wilson through 2024 and Stafford through 2022. In every case, their teams could plausibly use the franchise tag for them twice after their contracts expired, further delaying their paths to the open market. Those guys aren’t going anywhere for a long time unless their teams decide to move on from them.
Prescott has already been franchise-tagged once. He is realistically no more than one year away from reaching the open market, because the price of franchising him for a third year (2022) would swell past $50 million. Reaching free agency has always been a dream scenario for players looking to maximize their value on the market. Now, with salaries for quarterbacks providing generational wealth, other priorities can come into play more prominently.
Prescott, after collecting $31 million in salary last season, does not need the money or security provided by a long-term deal. If Prescott wanted to join forces with a certain coach, owner or even players, or if he wanted to relocate to another part of the country for whatever reason, reaching the market would allow him to make that happen. The point is, we don’t know what matters most to Prescott. We don’t know whether playing quarterback for the Cowboys is the most important thing to him, or if it ranks ninth on a list of 10 priorities, or if he’d rather play somewhere else. We do know he’s pocketed enough cash to live comfortably for the rest of his years. He can afford to prioritize other things that might not be apparent to others.
Carson Palmer recently suggested Prescott should accept a team-friendly deal from the Cowboys to assure his status as the quarterback for America’s Team, but why? Sure, the Cowboys are a marketing powerhouse, but they haven’t won anything of consequence in a quarter century. Prescott has made it this far. He collected $31 million last season. If he wants to see what’s out there, on his terms, what does he owe the Cowboys?
They publicly acknowledged settling for Prescott in the 2016 draft after trying to trade up for Paxton Lynch, and then failed to re-sign him even after Prescott played well. If Prescott wasn’t smitten enough by the Cowboys to accept a below-market offer from the team two years ago, when his career earnings were less than $3 million, why would he feel differently now that he has real money in the bank and such a clear path to gain the kind of control owner Jerry Jones takes for granted, but players rarely experience?
“To me, it’s a no-brainer to play for the $37.7 million unless they are willing to give him a long-term deal that is really satisfying,” an exec said. “Now, from a team standpoint, it is OK to buy one year of a player under the tag, but if you are going to do it a second time, you should plan on not having the player the following year. If Dak winds up playing on the one-year deal, I don’t know if they try to keep him at that point.”
2. This could be Kirk Cousins all over again, unless the Cowboys step up
Prescott has started 53 games over the past four seasons. That is coincidentally the same number of games Cousins started for Washington over his final four seasons with the team. Both were fourth-round draft choices. Both players joined teams that already had established starting quarterbacks who their teams’ owners preferred. It was Tony Romo for Dallas, Robert Griffin III for Washington. Both quarterbacks outperformed their draft pedigrees and became starters when injuries derailed the careers of the quarterbacks starting ahead of them. Both failed to secure long-term deals initially and then pocketed enough cash on the franchise tag to gain independence.
“If you are Dak and the cap is shrinking and your tag is going to be nearly $38 million, you have a ton of leverage — a ton,” an exec said. “The Cowboys can give you a $50 million signing bonus and fully guarantee $120 million over the next three years and drop your cap number by $27 million. That is immense, immense leverage. If the Cowboys’ big thing is length of contract, they need to start doing deals earlier. Deals are getting shorter.”
A rift between Cousins and Washington owner Daniel Snyder made the quarterback’s exit seem almost inevitable. The situation in Dallas appears more favorable for the sides working out a long-term agreement. But if Prescott wants to follow the Cousins playbook, he is in prime position to do so.
The table below stacks player and team stats for Prescott and Cousins over those 53-start windows. The production is strikingly similar, right down to identical expected points added (EPA) per attempt via TruMedia’s model.
4 Most Recent Seasons With Drafted Team
3. Prescott carries no baggage other than an injury that is not considered career-altering
Some quarterbacks who become available are old or in decline. Some have become estranged from their coaches or organizations. Some carry burdensome contracts. Some face uncertain futures because of injuries. Prescott does have the ankle injury suffered Oct. 11, but with doctors expecting him to make a full recovery, that would not seem to be a serious impediment for reaching a contract extension.
There is really no reason for a quarterback as productive as Prescott to reach the brink of free agency, unless the team fouls up, which the Cowboys have done, or unless the player really wants to reach free agency, which also could be the case here.
4. Prescott was not a first-round draft choice, which could affect how Dallas and other teams view him
Of the 15 quarterbacks drafted in 2016, Prescott ranks No. 1 in Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value metric. He ranks first among them in EPA per pass attempt. He leads his draft class in total touchdowns (106 passing, 24 rushing), yards per attempt (7.7), winning percentage (.597, counting playoffs) and passer rating (97.2).
Yet, even if Prescott has outproduced 2016 first-round picks Goff and Wentz, he was not evaluated as a first-round talent entering the NFL, which could affect how some teams see him today. Yes, Cousins proved that a mid-round pick can earn top dollar on the open market after reaching free agency as a two-time franchise player, but Cousins’ original team, Washington, resisted paying him even though Cousins had been productive.
Draft pedigree could also explain why the Cowboys were not more aggressive in striking a deal with Prescott to this point. Arrogance is another plausible explanation; if a former player such as Palmer thinks playing for the Cowboys is its own reward, Jerry Jones could have been betting Prescott would feel that way, too. But, just as the Cowboys would be in better position than anyone to see Prescott’s shortcomings, Prescott knows better than most what the downside of playing for the Cowboys might be. He might not view the Cowboys’ organization as favorably as Jones views the organization.
2016 Drafted QBs: Last 16 Starts
5. Trading Prescott could be more complicated than trading other quarterbacks
There are no indications the Cowboys want to trade Prescott, but it wouldn’t be the wildest quarterback scenario considered during this action-packed offseason at the position. Any team making a play for Prescott would need to account for a contract situation that is different.
The teams that acquired Goff, Wentz and Stafford also acquired those quarterbacks’ relatively mature contracts. With the big bonus money in those deals having been paid already, those contracts became favorable for the acquiring teams. In contrast, any team acquiring Prescott would most likely enter into an expensive long-term deal at the outset.
“Dak is not going anywhere now, but if there are limited offseason programs, I’d just go ahead and sign the tender and then the Cowboys can think about trading him,” an exec said, “but it’s not an easy contract to trade if it’s not an extension.”
This all could become a non-story if Prescott re-signs with the Cowboys. Until then, and until chatter surrounding Wilson and Watson becomes action, the possibilities make Prescott the most fascinating quarterback in the league.
By Mike Sando 3h ago
Russell Wilson is exerting public pressure on the Seattle Seahawks to increase his influence. Deshaun Watson is demanding a trade from the Houston Texans. Matthew Stafford wanted out of Detroit and secured a trade to the Los Angeles Rams. Carson Wentz wanted to leave Philadelphia for Indianapolis and got his way. Dak Prescott wants … what, exactly?
“Everyone else is complaining,” an NFL team exec said. “Dak is kind of lost in this.”
Lost, but in position to win big. At a time when high-profile NFL quarterbacks are asserting themselves, the passer possessing greater leverage than all of them is lurking silently.
Prescott might as well be standing in the pocket, patting the football over and over, without feeling even a hint of pressure closing in around him. He is either going to sign a massive extension with the Dallas Cowboys, receive a one-year offer for $37.7 million as a franchise player or reach free agency beginning March 17. Those are attractive options for a productive 27-year-old quarterback with two Pro Bowls on his résumé, even with Prescott coming off a serious ankle injury.
Though largely invisible so far this offseason, Prescott really is the most fascinating NFL quarterback for reasons that separate him from the guys making bigger headlines. The Kirk Cousins playbook is open for all to see. Will Prescott follow it out of Dallas?
1. Free agency is actually within Prescott’s reach
Watson is signed through 2026, Wentz through 2025, Wilson through 2024 and Stafford through 2022. In every case, their teams could plausibly use the franchise tag for them twice after their contracts expired, further delaying their paths to the open market. Those guys aren’t going anywhere for a long time unless their teams decide to move on from them.
Prescott has already been franchise-tagged once. He is realistically no more than one year away from reaching the open market, because the price of franchising him for a third year (2022) would swell past $50 million. Reaching free agency has always been a dream scenario for players looking to maximize their value on the market. Now, with salaries for quarterbacks providing generational wealth, other priorities can come into play more prominently.
Prescott, after collecting $31 million in salary last season, does not need the money or security provided by a long-term deal. If Prescott wanted to join forces with a certain coach, owner or even players, or if he wanted to relocate to another part of the country for whatever reason, reaching the market would allow him to make that happen. The point is, we don’t know what matters most to Prescott. We don’t know whether playing quarterback for the Cowboys is the most important thing to him, or if it ranks ninth on a list of 10 priorities, or if he’d rather play somewhere else. We do know he’s pocketed enough cash to live comfortably for the rest of his years. He can afford to prioritize other things that might not be apparent to others.
Carson Palmer recently suggested Prescott should accept a team-friendly deal from the Cowboys to assure his status as the quarterback for America’s Team, but why? Sure, the Cowboys are a marketing powerhouse, but they haven’t won anything of consequence in a quarter century. Prescott has made it this far. He collected $31 million last season. If he wants to see what’s out there, on his terms, what does he owe the Cowboys?
They publicly acknowledged settling for Prescott in the 2016 draft after trying to trade up for Paxton Lynch, and then failed to re-sign him even after Prescott played well. If Prescott wasn’t smitten enough by the Cowboys to accept a below-market offer from the team two years ago, when his career earnings were less than $3 million, why would he feel differently now that he has real money in the bank and such a clear path to gain the kind of control owner Jerry Jones takes for granted, but players rarely experience?
“To me, it’s a no-brainer to play for the $37.7 million unless they are willing to give him a long-term deal that is really satisfying,” an exec said. “Now, from a team standpoint, it is OK to buy one year of a player under the tag, but if you are going to do it a second time, you should plan on not having the player the following year. If Dak winds up playing on the one-year deal, I don’t know if they try to keep him at that point.”
2. This could be Kirk Cousins all over again, unless the Cowboys step up
Prescott has started 53 games over the past four seasons. That is coincidentally the same number of games Cousins started for Washington over his final four seasons with the team. Both were fourth-round draft choices. Both players joined teams that already had established starting quarterbacks who their teams’ owners preferred. It was Tony Romo for Dallas, Robert Griffin III for Washington. Both quarterbacks outperformed their draft pedigrees and became starters when injuries derailed the careers of the quarterbacks starting ahead of them. Both failed to secure long-term deals initially and then pocketed enough cash on the franchise tag to gain independence.
“If you are Dak and the cap is shrinking and your tag is going to be nearly $38 million, you have a ton of leverage — a ton,” an exec said. “The Cowboys can give you a $50 million signing bonus and fully guarantee $120 million over the next three years and drop your cap number by $27 million. That is immense, immense leverage. If the Cowboys’ big thing is length of contract, they need to start doing deals earlier. Deals are getting shorter.”
A rift between Cousins and Washington owner Daniel Snyder made the quarterback’s exit seem almost inevitable. The situation in Dallas appears more favorable for the sides working out a long-term agreement. But if Prescott wants to follow the Cousins playbook, he is in prime position to do so.
The table below stacks player and team stats for Prescott and Cousins over those 53-start windows. The production is strikingly similar, right down to identical expected points added (EPA) per attempt via TruMedia’s model.
4 Most Recent Seasons With Drafted Team
| QB | COUSINS | PRESCOTT |
|---|---|---|
| Draft Round | 4th | 4th |
| Team | WAS | DAL |
| Seasons | 2014-17 | 2017-20 |
| Starts | 53 | 53 |
| W-L-T | 25-27-1 | 29-24-0 |
| QB Passing | Cousins | Prescott |
| Cmp | 1,236 | 1,203 |
| Att | 1,860 | 1,834 |
| Cmp% | 67% | 66% |
| Yds | 14,636 | 13,967 |
| Yd/Att | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Passer Rtg | 96.1 | 95.4 |
| EPA/Att | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Sack % | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| QB rushing | Cousins | Prescott |
| Att | 115 | 202 |
| Yds | 344 | 1,032 |
| TD | 13 | 18 |
| Team EPA/G | WAS | DAL |
| OFF | +1.1 | +3.7 |
| DEF & ST | -2.5 | -1.2 |
3. Prescott carries no baggage other than an injury that is not considered career-altering
Some quarterbacks who become available are old or in decline. Some have become estranged from their coaches or organizations. Some carry burdensome contracts. Some face uncertain futures because of injuries. Prescott does have the ankle injury suffered Oct. 11, but with doctors expecting him to make a full recovery, that would not seem to be a serious impediment for reaching a contract extension.
There is really no reason for a quarterback as productive as Prescott to reach the brink of free agency, unless the team fouls up, which the Cowboys have done, or unless the player really wants to reach free agency, which also could be the case here.
4. Prescott was not a first-round draft choice, which could affect how Dallas and other teams view him
Of the 15 quarterbacks drafted in 2016, Prescott ranks No. 1 in Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value metric. He ranks first among them in EPA per pass attempt. He leads his draft class in total touchdowns (106 passing, 24 rushing), yards per attempt (7.7), winning percentage (.597, counting playoffs) and passer rating (97.2).
Yet, even if Prescott has outproduced 2016 first-round picks Goff and Wentz, he was not evaluated as a first-round talent entering the NFL, which could affect how some teams see him today. Yes, Cousins proved that a mid-round pick can earn top dollar on the open market after reaching free agency as a two-time franchise player, but Cousins’ original team, Washington, resisted paying him even though Cousins had been productive.
Draft pedigree could also explain why the Cowboys were not more aggressive in striking a deal with Prescott to this point. Arrogance is another plausible explanation; if a former player such as Palmer thinks playing for the Cowboys is its own reward, Jerry Jones could have been betting Prescott would feel that way, too. But, just as the Cowboys would be in better position than anyone to see Prescott’s shortcomings, Prescott knows better than most what the downside of playing for the Cowboys might be. He might not view the Cowboys’ organization as favorably as Jones views the organization.
2016 Drafted QBs: Last 16 Starts
| QB | PRESCOTT | GOFF | WENTZ | BRISSETT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cmp-Att/G | 26-40 | 25-37 | 23-38 | 18-30 |
| Cmp % | 65% | 67% | 60% | 61% |
| Yd/G | 322 | 267 | 239 | 191 |
| Yd/Att | 8.0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| TD-INT | 28-9 | 23-13 | 23-15 | 19-6 |
| Passer Rtg | 98.0 | 91.0 | 80.7 | 87.8 |
| EPA/Att | .27 | .16 | .06 | .14 |
| Team Stats | DAL | LAR | PHI | IND/NE |
| OFF EPA Rank | 4th | 21st | 25th | 11th |
| D/ST EPA Rank | 26th | 4th | 13th | 20th |
| Record | 7-9 | 10-6 | 7-8-1 | 8-8 |
5. Trading Prescott could be more complicated than trading other quarterbacks
There are no indications the Cowboys want to trade Prescott, but it wouldn’t be the wildest quarterback scenario considered during this action-packed offseason at the position. Any team making a play for Prescott would need to account for a contract situation that is different.
The teams that acquired Goff, Wentz and Stafford also acquired those quarterbacks’ relatively mature contracts. With the big bonus money in those deals having been paid already, those contracts became favorable for the acquiring teams. In contrast, any team acquiring Prescott would most likely enter into an expensive long-term deal at the outset.
“Dak is not going anywhere now, but if there are limited offseason programs, I’d just go ahead and sign the tender and then the Cowboys can think about trading him,” an exec said, “but it’s not an easy contract to trade if it’s not an extension.”
This all could become a non-story if Prescott re-signs with the Cowboys. Until then, and until chatter surrounding Wilson and Watson becomes action, the possibilities make Prescott the most fascinating quarterback in the league.
Genghis Khan
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Genghis Khan
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It's retarded to lose a top 5 / top 10 QB over one year on the contract.
And it would be a disaster to lose him for essentially nothing.
Washington is still paying for letting Cousins walk. I guess they thought they could just draft another one. It's not that easy.
Just get the contract done. There's really no good choice otherwise.
And it would be a disaster to lose him for essentially nothing.
Washington is still paying for letting Cousins walk. I guess they thought they could just draft another one. It's not that easy.
Just get the contract done. There's really no good choice otherwise.
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My eye test tells me Wilson is better but it's not by a wide margin and certainly not worth multiple firsts.
Genghis Khan
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QBR is a terrible way to measure it so I do find those stats unconvincing but while I suspect Wilson is better I agree it's pretty close. Not to mention Dak may still be an ascending player and Wilson probably isn't so by this time next season Dak could be convincingly better.
Cujo
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To be fair Wilson doesn't have near the weapons or protection. If Dak was in Seattle, he'd be a nobody.
L.T. Fan
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Ye
Wilsons remaining career is pretty much all downhill while Prescott is still moving toward his full potential.
Bill Shatner
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Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf aren't weapons? Metcalf may end up one of the best that's ever played.
NoDak
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Huh? Wilson most certainly does have weapons to throw to. And if you haven't noticed, Dak's protection has been failing pretty fast over the last few years starting with Fred Beard's illness along with Smith's injuries and our revolving door at LG, and finally bottoming out last year.
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Wilson makes his line look worse than it is too. He holds the ball too long and makes spectacular plays. But he gets sacked more than he needs to as a result.
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Mahomes did the same damn thing in college, and did so again in the SB. You kill your OL when you roll out of a clean pocket. It's infuriating to watch as a fan.
p1_
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Its early to throw Metcalf in that conversation, but I'll grant he is very talented.
Cujo
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That's the last 2 years. For most of the time he's been there, they've leaned on him heavily. Look at how many sacks he's still taking. How well would Dak do behind that protection?
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I bet Dak takes less sacks behind that same Oline.
Cujo
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The year they won the super bowl he had Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin.
Cujo
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He took 56 in 2018
Genghis Khan
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If we're going back in time, are we going to just pretend that Marshawn Lynch and the LOB didn't exist?
Because Wilson was propped up waaaaaaay more than Dak's ever been.
When they were making super bowls they most certainly did not lean on him heavily.
Cujo
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Yes, the defense was good. All I'm trying to say is that Wilson has been asked over time, to get by with less than Dak has had. Every time I point this out, I get attacked like I'm calling him a shitty qb. I'm not. I'm saying he stepped into a situation that contributed to him performing well.