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dpf1123

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Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts for Week 5
Dallas returns to the scene of their 2022 playoff demise full of belief of better results

BOB STURM
OCT 7, 2023

Let’s get ready for one aspect of this incredible sports weekend with our weekend tradition — Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts.
We have waited nine months to return to Santa Clara and get another shot at those 49ers. Like them or not, they are currently in the Cowboys kitchen and while Dallas cannot make things right for playoff losses in October, they at least can get a confidence boost of the highest order if they can get a win at 7:20 pm on Sunday.

With that, let’s offer three of my many, many pregame thoughts for Cowboys-Niners. Here we go:

- We try not to put everything on the QB, but Dak Prescott needs to be on his game on Sunday Night. Usually, it is overcooked to say this is about the team that has better QB play, but honestly, so much in this game seems pretty equal. I think it is fair to suggest that the Cowboys have a defense that is as good or better than the 49ers. The offensive line is as good or better than the Niners, too. But, the difference in this game could easily be the same as it was in January – who has the better playmakers in their offense? And even more specifically, can Dak Prescott outplay the San Francisco QB? Because that didn’t happen in the last meeting. Allow me to quote myself from the Morning After that playoff game:

On Sunday, Dak Prescott had his moments. He had many of them. He just couldn’t get it done again. While it is certainly harsh to blame it all on him, it really doesn’t matter. After playing arguably his best ever, Prescott followed up against a better opponent in a tougher place on a short week and did not come close to outplaying a rookie quarterback who was never supposed to step on the field this year. But, in any blind taste test, Brock Purdy would be voted the better quarterback in this game.

Six days after beating and outplaying the most decorated playoff quarterback in the history of the game, we thought Prescott might be ready to adjust his career narrative forever if he could back it up with a win over one of the least decorated playoff QBs. At least Purdy was before this game. Now, Purdy will do something for his franchise that no QB has done for the Cowboys since Aikman was a young man — start an NFC Championship Game.

This game will weigh heavily on all discussions about Prescott’s spot among quarterbacks. And, frankly, it should.

He threw several turnover-worthy passes and none of them will cover his efforts in glory. In a game the Cowboys thought they could make Purdy “play like a rookie”, it was Dallas’ guy who most resembled that. When we endlessly discuss Prescott’s performances, it never seems to be about his great moments or talent level. It is those moments of regret and decision-making that come to mind. It is understanding the balance of risk vs. reward and being willing to pull the trigger, but also understanding the ramifications if you get it wrong.

Prescott got it wrong several times and it cost the Cowboys. Your best players have to be your best players and there is no place where it is more true than at quarterback — especially when you are a road underdog. Prescott has to protect that ball and make terribly sure that he is not why Dallas comes up short on the scoreboard. It is disingenuous to conclude that it was anything but that in this game.

Quite clearly, it was on that day that your favorite local Dak Prescott apologist realist had reached a boiling point. It was also on that day that I encouraged the Cowboys to delay any talk of a contract extension and to preserve an off-ramp for the future if they ever choose to go in a different direction.

Now, look, I readily admit that it might have been frustration talking, but I after reviewing the game again, I just had so many issues with that performance from their leader. He had decent protection for most of the day but there were too many mistakes, most notably the two massive interceptions in the first half.

You cannot win games like this in places like this with multiple giveaways from your QB – especially the unpardonable sin of a red zone interception on 2nd and 2. You just cannot do that in your seventh season. Further, you cannot get a gift of a third quarter takeaway from your special teams and have five plays where you don’t even throw it into the end zone once. And finally, there was one chance to with 2:56 left in the game and down, 19-12. You have to hit this throw to Michael Gallup when he gets behind the secondary.

It might have been windy. It might have been tough. But, that was a legacy opportunity and the ball was to the wrong side and under-thrown. This was probably their last chance to save the day and it was the crucial miss they could not survive.

I seldom tell you it is Dak’s fault because it seldom is.

But, we can admit when he comes up short and you are considering a new contract. At worst, he had to play Brock Purdy to a push. Instead, Purdy made a few big-time throws and Prescott did not. There is more to football than QB play, but sometimes it comes down to who has the better guy with the ball in his hands. I can live with Patrick Mahomes or a few others beating him when it counts, but no, not a seventh-round rookie. Purdy played a clean game and made plays. Dak had errors and misses. That has to change.

- The Cowboys defense has a chance to demonstrate that they can win this type of battle and get takeaways when it counts the most. It would be very difficult to blame the defense for much in that playoff matchup, but I submit that the thing that really sticks out to me is that they had a chance to change the game a few times when balls were tipped and Cowboys got their hands on passes but could not make the pick. That is the margin in games like this and while the defense was very good, they didn’t quite finish the job.
Yes, hold the 49ers below 20 should be good enough, but sometimes it isn’t. When Dallas did not get takeaways, then they had to get stops late and they had two chances at 9-9 late in the third quarter and instead gave up 10 plays at the end and while we aren’t going to hang the loss on them, we also aren’t going to herald them as heroes and a generational defense if they run out of gas after 40 minutes. It is a 60-minute game and if Trevon Diggs can prevent this George Kittle bobbled catch with a hit, maybe everything changes. But, it did not happen that way.

How Diggs missed him is anyone’s guess. That one hurt.

- What will Mike McCarthy’s offense show us in this situation? It is absolutely vital that the number one hurdle the Cowboys jump in this game is to demonstrate they have some idea of how to generate offense. The entire offensive overhaul was because the 49ers defense has muzzled Kellen Moore’s offense for two straight playoff years and it was more than enough to merit a different direction.
I am giving the offense the benefit of the doubt that they have been preparing for nine months to show new things. Maybe it is Brandin Cooks vertical, maybe it is Dak Prescott using his feet, maybe it is 10 personnel (as we saw against the Jets defense (a 49ers clone), or maybe it is just route combinations that work against the Niners standard looks. But, whatever the case, we believe they will finally have their full offensive line and new design. It is important that they are able to put drives together and points up. In two playoff games against this team in two years, they have averaged 14.5 points and 294 yards per game as an offense. That isn’t just bad, it is terrible.

Can’t win with it. And it is time to see much better. Yes, the 49ers have a nice defense but they routinely allow more than those numbers. You must improve and it must be shown on Sunday Night.

That is what I am thinking and I could have given you a dozen more thoughts. But, let’s get a game and we will be back to chop it up on Monday. Try to enjoy it!
 

Couchcoach

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Yep, Dak can change the trajectory of his career with a good performance and win tomorrow. This is his eight year, and I think we've seen the best of what he can offer. Big game with the whole nation watching is his perfect opportunity to prove people wrong. Myself included.
 

boozeman

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I am just flipping through the various playoff games to get myself motivated and this was a graphic in the 1994 game that really caught my eye.

1696714042650.png

That does not sound exactly legal, but that might provide a dude in 1994 some motivation to win the game.
 

boozeman

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If there is a guy that I think had a relatively poor game on our defense last year, and it was Daron Bland.

Hopefully, he's gone back and learned.
 

1bigfan13

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I am just flipping through the various playoff games to get myself motivated and this was a graphic in the 1994 game that really caught my eye.

View attachment 693787

That does not sound exactly legal, but that might provide a dude in 1994 some motivation to win the game.
Teams giving their players postseason bonuses is pretty common. From what I've seen, the bonuses elevate the farther along the team advances in the postseason.
 

1bigfan13

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That does not sound exactly legal, but that might provide a dude in 1994 some motivation to win the game.
It also explains how they were able to stack their roster with high-end FAs back then.
 

boozeman

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Teams giving their players postseason bonuses is pretty common. From what I've seen, the bonuses elevate the farther along the team advances in the postseason.
Yeah, but nothing like that. Bonuses are for all kinds of things.

That was basically he was playing for cut rate until a $900K bonus, if that happened. In 1994.
 

boozeman

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I have last year's playoff game going in the background and it just got to the Ray Ray McCloud kickoff return.

I totally forgot about that.
 

UncleMilti

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Rewatching the 22 playoff game on NFL Network. Turpin had an easy KO return he shit the bed on. That was huge. Honestly lots of blame to go around in the 4th quarter. Dak missing CeDee on 3rd and Eight. Defense gave up 3 very easy 3rd down conversions early in the 4th to allow the Niners to burn over 8 minutes off the clock. First throw for Dak at 3 mins left he threw a terrible pass that was almost picked off. 2nd down, terrible throw that Gallup couldn’t get. 3rd down…sack. Punt the ball, still a small shred of hope.
D gives up first down when they need a stop right off the bat. That was basically game. Niners ate our lunch on easy slant routes all game long.
 
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Chocolate Lab

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Was looking at the DVOA this year and it's interesting, last year they were the #1 defense and we were #2. This year, they're only #7 in defense and we're #1. But they're #2 on offense while we're #16.

So they're actually better on offense this year, at least so far with a small sample size.
 

boozeman

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Rewatching the 22 playoff game on NFL Network. Turpin had an easy KO return he shit the bed on. That was huge. Honestly lots of blame to go around in the 4th quarter. Dak missing CeDee on 3rd and Eight. Defense gave up 3 very easy 3rd down conversions early in the 4th to allow the Niners to burn over 8 minutes off the clock. First throw for Dak at 3 mins left he threw a terrible pass that was almost picked off. 2nd down, terrible throw that Gallup couldn’t get. 3rd down…sack. Punt the ball, still a small shred of hope.
D gives up first down when they need a stop right off the bat. That was basically game. Niners ate our lunch on easy slant routes all game long.
I am not at that point in my recording of the game. Why would you ruin this for me?
 

Chocolate Lab

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P_T

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Was looking at the DVOA this year and it's interesting, last year they were the #1 defense and we were #2. This year, they're only #7 in defense and we're #1. But they're #2 on offense while we're #16.

So they're actually better on offense this year, at least so far with a small sample size.
That's kind of a skewed start b/c in 3 of our 4 games we haven't needed to "open up the playbook". Our offense was figuratively "on a Sunday stroll" in those games.
 
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