2022 Draft Weekend Chatter Thread...

[Cowboysrock55]

My gut feeling about this draft is that it will end up with significantly more disappointments than what we think as we sit here today.

Why? Just out of curiosity?

 

[boozeman]

My gut feeling about this draft is that it will end up with significantly more disappointments than what we think as we sit here today.

Oh for fucks sake. We didn't draft your boy Sam Howell. Get over it.

 

[boozeman]

Why? Just out of curiosity?

He has turned into a Joe Fan. He actually projected his fanboy love for Howell into what should have been logical analysis, backed up by a sound argument.

Sad to see, really.

 

[NoDak]

This was a strange draft to watch unfold and I hope my initial feelings are true and not just the by-product of a sober fever dream.

Smith will probably be okay. He really needs to be a guard and then just let him go from there. If he grows into a tackle, great. Clean up some technical things and we have a mean left guard.

Williams can be very very good. The way he was used in college didn't do him many favors in terms of his draft stock, but it did expose him to interior work which a lot of edges don't get put into.

I am not into Tolbert all that much. I know some of you like him a lot more than me, but I just don't see an extra gear to him. He can flow around and it lulled people to sleep at his level of competition. I do think he is wired right for a WR, which is a plus.

Ferguson is easily my least favorite draft choice. I don't think he is dogshit, but I doubt he makes it to a second contract.

Waletzko has tremendous upside. I expected him to go much earlier based on his tools. You can't ask for a better frame to pack on some pounds and get yourself a starting tackle.

Bland is eh, okay to me. But this was a bad corner class to begin with. He might have gotten lost playing for Fresno State. If the whispers about switching to FS are true, we got ourselves another Reggie Robinson. Just let him compete at corner. Keep it simple.

Clark is the difference between this group being great or just okay. I really hope Jerry saw the X-rays and approved.

I like the Ridgeway pick a good bit. It is like they went looking for an Urban clone and found one. The method in which he will be used is exciting in comparison to Bohanna, who simply can't move.

Harper is tailor-made for STs, claims he loves it and lives it. Always room for a guy like that.

The UDFA class was pretty strong in comparison to how we looked like we have been mailing it in over the past four years or so.

Lindstrom, Bell, Tafua, Thomas and Fryfogle should be PS guys at least.

Nice post.


Homer.

 

[boozeman]

Nice post.


Homer.

I know. I hope something isn't really wrong with me, like a brain tumor or something.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I am not into Tolbert all that much. I know some of you like him a lot more than me, but I just don't see an extra gear to him. He can flow around and it lulled people to sleep at his level of competition. I do think he is wired right for a WR, which is a plus

I like Tolbert but I think he is just a rock solid WR. Very Gallup or even Ceric Wilson like. He isn't going to be a Cooper or even a Lamb but I think he could be a high third low end second receiver type for us for awhile. Maybe he gets a second deal like Gallup, maybe he is gone in 4 years like Cedric but I feel good that he is capable. I think he was at least a top 10 receiver in this class. Considering how many went off the board I think he will have a better career than a number of guys picked before him.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Oh for fucks sake. We didn't draft your boy Sam Howell. Get over it.

I mean when a guy thinks Howell is likely a first rounder a few days before the draft I tend to not trust the gut feelings of the opinion. I think Schmitty has been watching too much hockey and not much football.

 

[boozeman]

I mean when a guy thinks Howell is likely a first rounder a few days before the draft I tend to not trust the gut feelings of the opinion. I think Schmitty has been watching too much hockey and not much football.

Howell and really all of this QB class was really overinflated, but I guess that is part of the draft game.

I get it that Howell lost a lot of talent from 2020, he did not elevate the talent around him. That is what evaluators notice.

I figured he was a second rounder if a team was forcing it. Turns out, they certainly weren't forcing the QB picks nearly as hard as they normally have.

 

[Smitty]

Why? Just out of curiosity?

Well as others have said I think a lot of the positivity we as a board are assigning this class is the lack of out of left field head scratchers.

But I think we are probably overestimating what guys like Smith, Williams and Tolbert become. I do not think, push comes to shove, that we are talking about a Zach Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence or a Michael Gallup here. I think all three of those guys are probably sub-that talent level. In that case what are we looking at? One contract guys for the most part? I’m not saying this class is 2019 but it’s probably not 2020 either. I bet we end up looking at this class a lot like 2018 which is kinda eh.

 

[Smitty]

He has turned into a Joe Fan. He actually projected his fanboy love for Howell into what should have been logical analysis, backed up by a sound argument.

Sad to see, really.

Hilarious that you are calling me Joe Fan. Have you looked at the consensus grades we are getting? Not great.

I love how me stumping for Sam Howell broke your brain.

 

[boozeman]

Well as others have said I think a lot of the positivity we as a board are assigning this class is the lack of out of left field head scratchers.

But I think we are probably overestimating what guys like Smith, Williams and Tolbert become. I do not think, push comes to shove, that we are talking about a Zach Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence or a Michael Gallup here. I think all three of those guys are probably sub-that talent level. In that case what are we looking at? One contract guys for the most part? I’m not saying this class is 2019 but it’s probably not 2020 either. I bet we end up looking at this class a lot like 2018 which is kinda eh.

We also picked at 24th in every round, which was different from 2018.

 

[Smitty]

We also picked at 24th in every round, which was different from 2018.

We picked 19th in 2018. Kinda similar.

 

[boozeman]

Hilarious that you are calling me Joe Fan. Have you looked at the consensus grades we are getting? Not great.

I love how me stumping for Sam Howell broke your brain.

You have become Joe Fan because it is clear you are avoiding discussion with details and now, you even are talking about "consensus grades".

 

[Smitty]

You have become Joe Fan because it is clear you are avoiding discussion with details and now, you even are talking about "consensus grades".

I’m saying you don’t know as much as Mel Kiper does.

 

[boozeman]

I’m saying you don’t know as much as Mel Kiper does.

Mel Kiper was hiding in his fucking basement and wouldn't even go to the draft.

 

[Simpleton]

Well as others have said I think a lot of the positivity we as a board are assigning this class is the lack of out of left field head scratchers.

But I think we are probably overestimating what guys like Smith, Williams and Tolbert become. I do not think, push comes to shove, that we are talking about a Zach Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence or a Michael Gallup here. I think all three of those guys are probably sub-that talent level. In that case what are we looking at? One contract guys for the most part? I’m not saying this class is 2019 but it’s probably not 2020 either. I bet we end up looking at this class a lot like 2018 which is kinda eh.

If we got a Zack Martin (future HOF'er), Lawrence (Pro Bowler) and Gallup (possible Pro Bowler/1000 yard WR) out of one draft it would literally be one of the best drafts in NFL history.

So while I don't think any of them will live up to those standards, I do think at least one and perhaps two of them will be Gallup-level players, if not Lawrence-level.

I don't see any way Smith busts, he's just too big, too athletic, too intelligent/self-aware to not at least be a rock solid starting LG for 8-10 years. He may never fully develop into a top-tier NFL LT but I think he's going to make a Pro Bowl or two eventually at one position or the other.

Williams may never fully develop into a well-rounded DE who you can play 50 snaps a game, but unless the off-field shit shows it's head and ruins his career I think he's at least a valuable nickel/dime specialist who can give you 6 or so sacks a year.

Tolbert will be a good WR3, I have no doubts about that, and may turn into a very good WR2 ala Gallup. He's high floor, I can't see him being any worse than Wilson as a WR3.

As far as the rest, I doubt Ferguson will ever be what you want out of a starter but he should at least be a very good TE2, and maybe serve as a bridge from Schultz to a more dynamic player if we don't re-sign him long term. If Clark is healthy he'll be a starter at some point and Ridgeway should be a nice rotational piece.

I don't know enough about Waletzko, Bland and so forth to speak confidently about their floors.

But if all we get out of the class is a borderline Pro Bowl LG, a pass-rush only specialist that can give you 6 sacks and a Cedrick Wilson-caliber WR, along with another solid depth piece or two, that's not bad at all.

 

[NoDak]

I’m saying you don’t know as much as Mel Kiper does.

Mel Kiper told us that Bo Melton was a 2nd rounder.

 

[Smitty]

If we got a Zack Martin (future HOF'er), Lawrence (Pro Bowler) and Gallup (possible Pro Bowler/1000 yard WR) out of one draft it would literally be one of the best drafts in NFL history.

So while I don't think any of them will live up to those standards, I do think at least one and perhaps two of them will be Gallup-level players, if not Lawrence-level.

I don't see any way Smith busts, he's just too big, too athletic, too intelligent/self-aware to not at least be a rock solid starting LG for 8-10 years. He may never fully develop into a top-tier NFL LT but I think he's going to make a Pro Bowl or two eventually at one position or the other.

Williams may never fully develop into a well-rounded DE who you can play 50 snaps a game, but unless the off-field shit shows it's head and ruins his career I think he's at least a valuable nickel/dime specialist who can give you 6 or so sacks a year.

Tolbert will be a good WR3, I have no doubts about that, and may turn into a very good WR2 ala Gallup. He's high floor, I can't see him being any worse than Wilson as a WR3.

As far as the rest, I doubt Ferguson will ever be what you want out of a starter but he should at least be a very good TE2, and maybe serve as a bridge from Schultz to a more dynamic player if we don't re-sign him long term. If Clark is healthy he'll be a starter at some point and Ridgeway should be a nice rotational piece.

I don't know enough about Waletzko, Bland and so forth to speak confidently about their floors.

But if all we get out of the class is a borderline Pro Bowl LG, a pass-rush only specialist that can give you 6 sacks and a Cedrick Wilson-caliber WR, along with another solid depth piece or two, that's not bad at all.

I wasn’t implying it would have to be a Zack Martin, Lawrence and Gallup, but again, I think this class ends up looking more like 2018 than 2020 when all is said and done. You probably get one re-sign long term deal, one walk, and one who might get strung along a bit.

At the end of the day both Smith and Williams were definite reaches. There is a lot to like about those players but the fact that they were reaches means we can’t gloss over that there are also negatives. The NFL is hard and I would be hard pressed to see them turning into a Lamb/Diggs outcome. That’s an A draft despite picking later.

This will be, in my guess, more like 2018 where you get a keeper with Gallup, someone will start off and on like Connor Williams but leave you wanting more and eventually is allowed to walk, and probably another like Vander Esch will be retained but not really entrenched as a core piece.

Those home run drafts are easy to spot generally. Lamb/Diggs was one such. This doesn’t have that feeling. Too much individual risk means the odds probably don’t roll in our favor more than an average draft.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

But I think we are probably overestimating what guys like Smith, Williams and Tolbert become. I do not think, push comes to shove, that we are talking about a Zach Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence or a Michael Gallup here.

Not sure why you think we are over estimating them. I'm really not sure why Sam Williams is so inferior to Lawrence as a prospect for example.

But if your draft consists of a hall of fame guard, probowl DE and 1000 yard receiver you've hit a home run. So no, I'm not banking on that. I doubt Smith turns into Zach Martin for example.

I do think that Sam Williams has double digit sack potential. So yeah I think he could be Lawrence, hell I think he has a ceiling higher than Lawrence. He just has all the raw tools you dream about in a pass rusher.

And Tolbert, to me is very Gallup like when we drafted him. Just lots of similarities but it doesn't mean he becomes a 1000 yard receiver. I also think Gallup gets overrated a bit by fans. He makes spectacular catches but in the end he catches a pretty low percentage of balls thrown his direction compared to our other receivers. I'm hoping Tolbert can be more of a chain mover than Gallup who we complete only around 55% of the passes his direction (Granted because he doesn't get many short routes).

 

[Simpleton]

I’m saying you don’t know as much as Mel Kiper does.

Kiper had Tyler Smith ranked 33rd (we took him 24), Sam Williams 125 (56), Jalen Tolbert 79 (88), Jake Ferguson outside of his top 225 (129), Waletzko 114 (155), Bland 153 (167), Clark 119 (176), Ridgeway 152 (178) and Harper unraked (193).

So we generally took players either where he had them ranked or got theoretical value in his eyes by taking guys 30-50 slots past where he had them ranked.

So as far as I can tell his problem with our class is Williams, who is pretty clearly one of the top pure edge rushers in the class, because he thinks he can't stop the run and/or has issues off the field.

Beyond that the Ferguson thing is just kind of ridiculous, he was a 2-time All Big 10 player and a top 2 receiving target for the Badgers the last few years. You could argue we took him a little early but anybody arguing he's barely a draftable player is out in left field.

My point is that I think Kiper is a bit full of shit and slanting his "grade" heavily towards his dislike of the Williams pick.