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2021 NFL Draft Thread
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Ranking the top quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft: Bob McGinn’s grades are in
By Bob McGinn Apr 23, 2021
This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
Robert S. McNamara, the U.S. Secretary of Defense under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, was the subject of the 2003 documentary “The Fog of War” in which the difficulty of decision-making in the midst of conflict was examined.
The layer of fog in NFL front offices continues to expand when it comes to their most vital decision: what to do at quarterback.
For the sake of argument, let’s say five quarterbacks are taken in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. It would be just the second time in history. The other was 1999, when it’s instructive to note that Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown turned out to be busts just as Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper made multiple Pro Bowls.
To most scouts, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is a cut above the rest. Some compare him to Andrew Luck, meaning he’s a prospect that comes along every five to 10 years.
“He lacks for no physical traits,” said one veteran evaluator. “He’s as close to a sure thing as you can have.”
In my poll of 18 personnel evaluators, 14 rated Lawrence as the best quarterback. Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson drew three first-place votes and Ohio State’s Justin Fields had the other.
With a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on, Lawrence led with 84 points followed by Wilson with 64, Fields with 53, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance with 38 and Alabama’s Mac Jones with 30. One point went to Florida’s Kyle Trask.
Perhaps more interesting was the fact not one scout picked Lawrence as the quarterback with the best chance to bust. With 16 scouts willing to toss a dart, the bust count showed 7½ hits for Lance, 3½ for Wilson, three for Fields and two for Jones.
During these hours of interviewing, not one scout said this was a great group of quarterbacks. Yet, so many teams high atop the draft are fully prepared to risk everything on prospects such as Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jones.
“This system — I can’t even describe how broken it is,” a longtime executive in personnel said. “Every quarterback has a handler or coach from the time they’re in the seventh or eighth grade. Then they play a season, maybe two, in college and everybody says, ‘Well, you’re going to be a top-10 pick, so you’ve got to come out.’ Now they come out with a wafer-thin résumé.
“The phrase is, ‘You can’t win in the NFL without a quarterback.’ Then all these teams that are at the top fall all over themselves to say, ‘We’re going to improve and get better. We’re never going to be up here again. We better take one.’
“It is a vicious cycle, and I don’t know how it ever resolves itself.”
Quarterbacks have gone off 1-2-3 twice before (1971, 1999) but never 1-2-3-4. History could be made.
“If the draft truly goes 1-2-3-4, or even 1-2-3, it’s absurd,” the executive added. “It is a rush to the altar. It’s so over the top. But I’m not surprised. It’s the NFL.”
Wilson had to compete just to lock down the starting job at BYU last season. Fields needs development reading defenses and must reduce his poor decisions. Lance made 17 career starts for the FCS Bison, including just one unimpressive start in 2020. Jones has physical limitations that might get exposed in the NFL.
Jones is the only one of the four that was in college for four years, and his first season was spent as a redshirt. Wilson, Fields and Lance are third-year juniors.
“I think there is more hope than talent,” an AFC scout said. “People are so desperate for these guys. I don’t see (Patrick) Mahomes. I don’t see (Peyton) Manning. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers. I see maybe Russell Wilson.”
With highly-touted, highly-drafted quarterbacks being discarded left and right this offseason, one scout laughed at his profession. “And we’re going to sit up here and act like we know for sure,” he said.
There are other perfectly good options, too. Kyle Pitts has all-time tight end written all over him. Ja’Marr Chase owns the strongest consensus from scouts at wide receiver since Calvin Johnson.
“We put way too much on these quarterbacks’ plates,” said another evaluator. “We keep saying, ‘They’re bust, they’re busts, they’re busts.’ Well, take some pressure off them. They’re not all built to throw 40 times a week.”
He pointed to how Kansas City kept winning in conservative fashion with Alex Smith, and how Ryan Tannehill turned around his career in Tennessee.
“You run the ball effectively and you build it off play-action,” said the evaluator. “It wasn’t by accident that Tannehill became a good quarterback at Tennessee.”
The Chiefs went 11-5, 9-7, 11-5, 12-4 from 2013-16 with Smith under center, making the playoffs three times. Finally, when the scouts and coaches concluded that Mahomes met every requirement they had at the position, they boldly traded up to draft him in 2017 and won the Super Bowl in 2019.
“Nobody has patience anymore,” said another executive. “The Chiefs told (ownership) to relax. They waited five years for a quarterback. It’s social media … it’s what have you done for me in the last 24 hours.”
Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.
“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”
A year ago, the Packers traded up late in the first round to No. 26 and gambled on Utah State’s Jordan Love.
A fourth-year junior, Love could have been in this draft. Because he didn’t play a down as a rookie, clubs still view him as a draft-eligible player. Seventeen scouts agreed to slot Love as if he were part of this draft. One rated him second, three rated him fourth, four rated him fifth, six rated him sixth, one rated him seventh and two rated him eighth.
“He would fit right in with this group. He really would,” an AFC personnel chief said. “Potential and traits, and you wish you saw it more on tape for a longer period.”
The NFL’s leap of faith at quarterback kicks off next week.
Ranking the quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-foot-5 ½, 213, no 40-yard dash time, Round 1 draft projection): Will follow in the footsteps of Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick.
“He doesn’t have the same kind of downfield vision and pocket feel that Joe had, but he’s got a little bigger arm and maybe more raw movement skills,” said one scout. “I would rate Joe’s football IQ and ability to diagnose and deliver with accuracy higher. I would put Trevor’s arm strength and ability to make plays with his legs maybe a little higher. Both excellent prospects. That would have been a tough call if they were both were in the same class.”
A third-year junior, he went 34-2 as a starter. As a freshman, he led Clemson to the national title. “He’s kind of ready-made for it,” said a second scout. “He’s not as heavy as Andrew (Luck). You’d want to see a little more meat on the bones, but he’s still a big kid … Jacksonville has enough receivers, a 1,000-yard rusher and two good bookends (tackles). Even though Jacksonville isn’t very good defensively they still have three building blocks in Josh Allen, C.J. Henderson and Myles Jack, who arguably are the best players at their positions in that division (AFC South). With that cap space (league-high $39.4 million) and that amount of picks (10), it’s going to be really hard to see that guy fail …
“He’s just polished. I wouldn’t say he’s Josh Allen talent-wise. I wouldn’t say he’s got Pat Mahomes’ arm. But you don’t need to — to be able to score and to win and to lead. He’s done that his entire career. He’s played with a lot of talent but, yeah, he’s always won.”
Finished with an NFL-equivalent passer rating of 114.7. “Is he Josh Allen or Blake Bortles?” a third scout said. “Those are the two guys I see. I like Lawrence but the accuracy thing … how has he played the last couple years against SEC teams and Big Ten teams? He’s a better athlete than Ben Roethlisberger. Trevor Lawrence is a great athlete.”
Threw for scouts Feb. 12 before undergoing surgery four days later to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. Will be drafted without running a 40. “He’s got some glaring flaws,” a fourth scout said. “The ACC stinks. It’s a terrible conference. Everything was so easy for him. Now when he plays LSU, Ohio State this year, Miami, Virginia Tech, there were times he had to speed up and he looked average. When you put him against other elite competition he has not stepped up. When Deshaun Watson was there and he played Alabama two years in a row, that guy was by far the best player on the field. A superstar. I never saw that with Trevor Lawrence.”
His 10-inch hands were the second largest among the top 12 quarterbacks. From Cartersville, Ga.
2. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 214, no 40 time, Round 1): Came out of nowhere in 2020 after a sophomore season in which his passer rating was a meager 84.9.
“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying. A year ago, nobody knew his name … is he a pure passer? Yes. Is he a good enough athlete? Probably. Is he super explosive as an athlete? No. He is a pure passer more than anything else. He’s got a little Aaron Rodgers in him with that scissor kick and throw where both feet are off the ground. I think he probably picked that up from watching Rodgers.”
After winning a quarterback competition before the season, he compiled a passer rating of 138.2 for a career mark of 111.4. A second scout saw some Joe Montana in him. “Love him,” said a third scout. “He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket.”
Durability is an issue for some teams. They say he played at about 205 pounds before bulking up at pro day, when he didn’t run a 40. Had right shoulder surgery (2018) and right thumb surgery (2019). “If they put him on the ground a lot, it’s like he’s going to break,” a fourth scout said. Hands were 9½ inches. Some scouts have reservations about his ability to lead and blend in a locker room. From Draper, Utah.
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-2 ½, 227, 4.46 40 time, Round 1): Attempted 39 passes in 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2018 before transferring. Two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year for the Buckeyes.
“Tremendous,” said one scout. “Ran 4.44. He’s got all the tools to do it. I hate to bring up (Dwayne) Haskins and Terrelle Pryor or some of those other (Ohio State) quarterbacks there that haven’t done it.”
Career passer rating of 127.6. Also ran for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns. “He’s a very smart guy and I see all the tools,” a second scout said. “If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb. But he’s going to need that redshirt year to kind of mesh.”
Had some fabulous games and a few stinkers in 2020 as well. “He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout. “He’s typically been the biggest, strongest, fastest kid on the field his whole life. He has learned to play football that when they call a pass he drops back and looks. First read, second read, if they’re not there, take off and run. Or if there was pressure, take off and run. At Ohio State, basically the same thing happened. To have him doing full-field reads will be a challenge. At the same time, in the NFL, Cam Newton did that for a decade. If you craft an offense around his skill set and don’t try to jam him into some system that will corral his abilities, then he’s got a chance. If you try to turn him into the classic NFL quarterback, I think you’re going to be frustrated.”
Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. Has small hands (9 1/8). “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a fourth scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play and on the next play I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom.” From Kennesaw, Ga.
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 224, no 40 time, Round 1): Turned down the chance to play safety at his home-state Big Ten team (Minnesota) and spent three seasons in Fargo. Won all 17 of his starts.
“He and Jordan Love, there might not be much difference between them,” said one scout. “He’s not that accurate with the ball. He’s got some mechanical flaws. He drops his weight and then comes back up to kind of generate some power from his lower body. His accuracy is a little erratic. People say he’s a developmental guy. You’re going to draft this guy and sit him for a year? He needs to play. He’s thrown (318) passes in his life. Mahomes threw 300 passes in six weeks at Texas Tech. But how do you take the guy and throw him out there when he’s this green?”
Compiled a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019. In 2020, against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, he had a passer rating of just 72.8 in a 39-28 victory. He also ran for 143 yards. “He might (bust) because of the competition,” said a second scout. “I would be scared as hell to have to draft him. Maybe you fall in love with the workout, then a year later you’re getting a divorce. He’s good but he’s not Cam Newton, I’ll tell you that right now. Don’t confuse him with Cam Newton. He won a (FBS) national championship. This kid’s coming from North Dakota State.”
Led the Bison to the FCS national title in 2019. Finished with a career passer rating of 125.3. Has small hands (9 1/8). “What scares me?” said a third scout. “Inability to throw a catchable football. If you really watch Trey Lance, all the receivers have to make unbelievable adjustments to his throws. He only throws 16 to 18 times a game because of the offense. He’s not a real thrower. I may be wrong on this but, my God, he’s at least three years away.” From Marshall, Minn.
5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2 ½, 217, 4.81 40 time, Round 1): Redshirted as a three-star recruit in 2017, carried a clipboard in ’18, made four starts for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in ’19 and went 13-0 for the national champs in ’20.
“If you throw away the way he looks, and he looks like shit, he’s a really good player,” said one scout. “People want to roll their eyes when you make a comparison with one of the greatest players ever. Is the guy going to win seven Super Bowls? I don’t know, but there are a lot of Tom Brady traits to this player. He’s got that kind of anticipation, that kind of arm. You want to look at him and say he’s not a good athlete, but he’s a functionally really good quarterback athlete. If you ask Tom Brady to scramble he looked like an old man even when he came out.”
His career passer rating of 138.2 edged Tagovailoa’s 138.1 and Baker Mayfield’s 131.1 at Oklahoma. “I love the kid at Alabama, but he’s not Tom Brady,” said a second scout. “Everyone’s trying to find that next Tom Brady or the next Peyton Manning, the non-mobile bell cow. Those guys are wired different. They’re culture guys. A year ago, they didn’t even think he’d be the starter at Alabama.”
Even wears his socks rolled over like Brady. Hands were 9¾.
“If he goes to San Francisco (No. 3), they’ll protect him with the run game,” said a third scout. “A lot of their passing is based on timing, rhythm and play-action. He should be able to do those things. But does he have an explosive arm? No. Does he have an explosive lower body? No. When push comes to shove, what’s the physical trait that gets him off the hook? Well, he doesn’t really have one. He’s got kind of a bad body … when people said he was going to the Saints in the 20s (No. 28), that made sense to me. To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.” From Jacksonville, Fla.
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-5, 236, 5.08 40 time, Rounds 2-3): Compared by one scout to Ben Roethlisberger, although he noted that Big Ben (6-foot-5, 241) ran considerably faster (4.86) coming out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004.
“Nobody’s talking about him,” one scout said. “I’d take him over Lance. He’s a big, strong, tough kid. He’ll step up, and he can throw it. He’s got good enough arm strength. Second round.”
A high school backup in Manvel, Texas, he redshirted in 2016 and then didn’t become a starter until 2019. “I see Jared Goff,” said another scout. “He’s strictly a pocket guy. He has a high, three-quarters release. Quick release, tight ball. He can move around the pocket but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness.”
Finished with a career passer rating of 117.1. “Similar to Jones,” said a third scout. “He’s a game manager. Average arm. He gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting you’ve got a bad team.” Largest hands (10 1/8) of the top quarterbacks.
7. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-3 ½, 217, 4.80 40 time, Round 3): Top-ranked recruit out of Duluth, Ga. Redshirted in 2016 as he rehabilitated a high-school knee injury. Teams also have concerns about the condition of his shoulder.
“He’s a little bit more mobile than Trask,” said one scout. “They’re similar, but I’d take Trask. He could be an eventual starter. His accuracy is really good. Has some injury issues. Really hasn’t played a lot. He had command of the offense. He would get the ball out of his hand.”
Went 6-5 as a starter for the Cardinal with a career passer rating of 95.8. “He’s like a one-read robot where he just stares down (receivers),” a second scout said. “Just not a lot of natural feel for the game. His arm’s good enough. He can run some. He’s not a playmaker. He’s just kind of a one-read, systems-type player.” Hands were 9½.
8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-foot-2 ½, 208, 4.62 40 time, Round 4): Won the job as a true freshman in 2017 and held it all four years.
“Before the season I thought he’d be a free agent,” said one scout. “Now I’ve got him in the fifth or sixth (round). He’s got a strong arm. He’s a good straight-line athlete but he doesn’t adjust well to movement. He’s a little mechanical. He’ll be a competitive backup for someone.”
Showed major improvement as a senior with a passer rating of 104 compared to 71 in 2017, 91.3 in ’18 and 89.2 in ’19. His career mark was 90. “He’s a paint-by-numbers guy,” a second scout said. “He can’t improvise.”
Hands were 9 3/8. “He’s jumpy at everything he does,” a third scout said. “No poise. He’s stiff with his ball carriage and delivery. He can run in a straight line but he’s not fluid and he gets scared when people tackle him.” From San Antonio.
9. Ian Book, Notre Dame (6-foot-0, 211, 4.65 40 time, Round 5): Winningest quarterback in Fighting Irish history. His record was 30-5.
“He won me over this year where he had not in the past,” one scout said. “He’s a good athlete, gritty and tough. He protects the ball. He’s got a better arm than you want to give him credit for. His accuracy can be all over the place, but he doesn’t make bad decisions. He’ll be a good No. 3. He’ll try to be a good No. 2 but I just don’t see it happening.”
Only Brady Quinn remains ahead of him in the Notre Dame passing record book. Finished with a career passer rating of 101.7 while rushing for 1,518 yards and 17 TDs.
“He makes the plays with his feet, but I just didn’t think he had the arm,” said a second scout. “Accuracy was an issue. He looked to tuck it and run a lot. He lacked pocket poise.” Hands were 9 7/8. From El Dorado Hills, Calif.
10. Sam Ehlinger, Texas (6-foot-1, 220, 4.84 40 time, Round 5): Possibly the toughest quarterback in the draft.
“You could honestly probably play him at running back,” said one scout. “He’s tough enough that he’s played special teams. You want this kid on your team. He’s very genuine. The reason you’d be giving him a chance is because of who he is.”
Rushed for 1,907 yards and 33 TDs in a read-option offense designed around his aggressive running style. Fought through injuries throughout four starting seasons. “I don’t think he throws it well enough,” said a second scout. “If he’s your quarterback and he’s got to throw the ball, you’re going to come up short. He’s a great dude, a great teammate, a great leader.”
His career passer rating was 100.1. Hands were 9 5/8. “He’s a gamer,” said a third scout. From Austin, Texas.
11. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (6-foot-6 ½, 234, 4.66 40 time, Round 6): Started 24 games at Florida from 2017-19 before suffering a broken ankle. Kyle Trask took over and Franks transferred to Arkansas after the season.
“He’s a big guy with a strong arm,” said one scout. “He’s not very mobile. Holds the ball. Indecisive. Excellent deep touch. If he has time in the pocket, then he’s good.”
Had a love-hate relationship with Gators fans. “Lots of fire and passion,” said another scout. Made nine starts for the Razorbacks in 2020. Career passer rating of 97.1. Hands were 9¾. “He was very inaccurate,” a third scout said. “The ball was all over the place.” From Crawfordsville, Fla.
12. Jamie Newman, Georgia (6-foot-3, 234, no 40 time, Round 7): Started 16 games at Wake Forest in 2018-19 before departing after it appeared the Demon Deacons were set to start sophomore Sam Hartman in 2020. “At Wake Forest he reminded me of Jordan Love,” said one scout. “He’s a big-time athlete and has a strong arm, but he wasn’t accurate.”
Was in position to start at Georgia but then opted out. “He said he wouldn’t have been prepared properly to play and be successful,” a second scout said. “Never got on the field with (Georgia) coaches because of COVID. He has the ability. He can run the ball. But I’m not sold on this kid.”
Career passer rating of 95. Hands were 9¾. From Graham, N.C.
Others: Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern; K.J. Costello, Mississippi State; Zach Smith, Tulsa; Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist; Brady White, Memphis.
Unsung hero
Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern: Played a role in Indiana’s resurgence by making 23 starts from 2017-19. Joined the Wildcats as a graduate transfer in 2020 and went 7-2 for a team that reached the Big Ten Championship Game. Smart, seasoned, sufficient size (6-foot-2, 213 pounds) and sufficient speed (4.76 40 time). He’ll get an NFL opportunity.
Scouts’ nighmare
Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist: Started 12 games for Texas as a true freshman in 2016 and then seven more in ’17 before Ehlinger took over in ’18. Transferred to SMU and put up big numbers as a 23-game starter from 2019-20. His career passer rating of 97.3 and strong leadership style merit attention. His size (6-foot-0, 210 pounds) and a marginal arm conspire against him.
Scout to remember
Dick Steinberg: As general manager of the Jets in 1990, he hired Ron Wolf from the Raiders as his personnel director. Wolf credited Steinberg with exposing him to an entirely different system of scouting, a 1½-year stint that he called one of the most professionally challenging of his Hall of Fame career. Steinberg helped build Super Bowl teams with the Rams and Patriots in a 25-year scouting career. He died in 1995. He was 60.
Quote to note
AFC personnel executive: “The greatest workout of all time was JaMarcus Russell. These quarterbacks throwing on air … I’m sorry, I just don’t get all worked up about that.”
By Bob McGinn Apr 23, 2021
This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
Robert S. McNamara, the U.S. Secretary of Defense under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, was the subject of the 2003 documentary “The Fog of War” in which the difficulty of decision-making in the midst of conflict was examined.
The layer of fog in NFL front offices continues to expand when it comes to their most vital decision: what to do at quarterback.
For the sake of argument, let’s say five quarterbacks are taken in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. It would be just the second time in history. The other was 1999, when it’s instructive to note that Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown turned out to be busts just as Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper made multiple Pro Bowls.
To most scouts, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is a cut above the rest. Some compare him to Andrew Luck, meaning he’s a prospect that comes along every five to 10 years.
“He lacks for no physical traits,” said one veteran evaluator. “He’s as close to a sure thing as you can have.”
In my poll of 18 personnel evaluators, 14 rated Lawrence as the best quarterback. Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson drew three first-place votes and Ohio State’s Justin Fields had the other.
With a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on, Lawrence led with 84 points followed by Wilson with 64, Fields with 53, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance with 38 and Alabama’s Mac Jones with 30. One point went to Florida’s Kyle Trask.
Perhaps more interesting was the fact not one scout picked Lawrence as the quarterback with the best chance to bust. With 16 scouts willing to toss a dart, the bust count showed 7½ hits for Lance, 3½ for Wilson, three for Fields and two for Jones.
During these hours of interviewing, not one scout said this was a great group of quarterbacks. Yet, so many teams high atop the draft are fully prepared to risk everything on prospects such as Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jones.
“This system — I can’t even describe how broken it is,” a longtime executive in personnel said. “Every quarterback has a handler or coach from the time they’re in the seventh or eighth grade. Then they play a season, maybe two, in college and everybody says, ‘Well, you’re going to be a top-10 pick, so you’ve got to come out.’ Now they come out with a wafer-thin résumé.
“The phrase is, ‘You can’t win in the NFL without a quarterback.’ Then all these teams that are at the top fall all over themselves to say, ‘We’re going to improve and get better. We’re never going to be up here again. We better take one.’
“It is a vicious cycle, and I don’t know how it ever resolves itself.”
Quarterbacks have gone off 1-2-3 twice before (1971, 1999) but never 1-2-3-4. History could be made.
“If the draft truly goes 1-2-3-4, or even 1-2-3, it’s absurd,” the executive added. “It is a rush to the altar. It’s so over the top. But I’m not surprised. It’s the NFL.”
Wilson had to compete just to lock down the starting job at BYU last season. Fields needs development reading defenses and must reduce his poor decisions. Lance made 17 career starts for the FCS Bison, including just one unimpressive start in 2020. Jones has physical limitations that might get exposed in the NFL.
Jones is the only one of the four that was in college for four years, and his first season was spent as a redshirt. Wilson, Fields and Lance are third-year juniors.
“I think there is more hope than talent,” an AFC scout said. “People are so desperate for these guys. I don’t see (Patrick) Mahomes. I don’t see (Peyton) Manning. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers. I see maybe Russell Wilson.”
With highly-touted, highly-drafted quarterbacks being discarded left and right this offseason, one scout laughed at his profession. “And we’re going to sit up here and act like we know for sure,” he said.
There are other perfectly good options, too. Kyle Pitts has all-time tight end written all over him. Ja’Marr Chase owns the strongest consensus from scouts at wide receiver since Calvin Johnson.
“We put way too much on these quarterbacks’ plates,” said another evaluator. “We keep saying, ‘They’re bust, they’re busts, they’re busts.’ Well, take some pressure off them. They’re not all built to throw 40 times a week.”
He pointed to how Kansas City kept winning in conservative fashion with Alex Smith, and how Ryan Tannehill turned around his career in Tennessee.
“You run the ball effectively and you build it off play-action,” said the evaluator. “It wasn’t by accident that Tannehill became a good quarterback at Tennessee.”
The Chiefs went 11-5, 9-7, 11-5, 12-4 from 2013-16 with Smith under center, making the playoffs three times. Finally, when the scouts and coaches concluded that Mahomes met every requirement they had at the position, they boldly traded up to draft him in 2017 and won the Super Bowl in 2019.
“Nobody has patience anymore,” said another executive. “The Chiefs told (ownership) to relax. They waited five years for a quarterback. It’s social media … it’s what have you done for me in the last 24 hours.”
Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.
“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”
A year ago, the Packers traded up late in the first round to No. 26 and gambled on Utah State’s Jordan Love.
A fourth-year junior, Love could have been in this draft. Because he didn’t play a down as a rookie, clubs still view him as a draft-eligible player. Seventeen scouts agreed to slot Love as if he were part of this draft. One rated him second, three rated him fourth, four rated him fifth, six rated him sixth, one rated him seventh and two rated him eighth.
“He would fit right in with this group. He really would,” an AFC personnel chief said. “Potential and traits, and you wish you saw it more on tape for a longer period.”
The NFL’s leap of faith at quarterback kicks off next week.
Ranking the quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-foot-5 ½, 213, no 40-yard dash time, Round 1 draft projection): Will follow in the footsteps of Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick.
“He doesn’t have the same kind of downfield vision and pocket feel that Joe had, but he’s got a little bigger arm and maybe more raw movement skills,” said one scout. “I would rate Joe’s football IQ and ability to diagnose and deliver with accuracy higher. I would put Trevor’s arm strength and ability to make plays with his legs maybe a little higher. Both excellent prospects. That would have been a tough call if they were both were in the same class.”
A third-year junior, he went 34-2 as a starter. As a freshman, he led Clemson to the national title. “He’s kind of ready-made for it,” said a second scout. “He’s not as heavy as Andrew (Luck). You’d want to see a little more meat on the bones, but he’s still a big kid … Jacksonville has enough receivers, a 1,000-yard rusher and two good bookends (tackles). Even though Jacksonville isn’t very good defensively they still have three building blocks in Josh Allen, C.J. Henderson and Myles Jack, who arguably are the best players at their positions in that division (AFC South). With that cap space (league-high $39.4 million) and that amount of picks (10), it’s going to be really hard to see that guy fail …
“He’s just polished. I wouldn’t say he’s Josh Allen talent-wise. I wouldn’t say he’s got Pat Mahomes’ arm. But you don’t need to — to be able to score and to win and to lead. He’s done that his entire career. He’s played with a lot of talent but, yeah, he’s always won.”
Finished with an NFL-equivalent passer rating of 114.7. “Is he Josh Allen or Blake Bortles?” a third scout said. “Those are the two guys I see. I like Lawrence but the accuracy thing … how has he played the last couple years against SEC teams and Big Ten teams? He’s a better athlete than Ben Roethlisberger. Trevor Lawrence is a great athlete.”
Threw for scouts Feb. 12 before undergoing surgery four days later to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. Will be drafted without running a 40. “He’s got some glaring flaws,” a fourth scout said. “The ACC stinks. It’s a terrible conference. Everything was so easy for him. Now when he plays LSU, Ohio State this year, Miami, Virginia Tech, there were times he had to speed up and he looked average. When you put him against other elite competition he has not stepped up. When Deshaun Watson was there and he played Alabama two years in a row, that guy was by far the best player on the field. A superstar. I never saw that with Trevor Lawrence.”
His 10-inch hands were the second largest among the top 12 quarterbacks. From Cartersville, Ga.
2. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 214, no 40 time, Round 1): Came out of nowhere in 2020 after a sophomore season in which his passer rating was a meager 84.9.
“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying. A year ago, nobody knew his name … is he a pure passer? Yes. Is he a good enough athlete? Probably. Is he super explosive as an athlete? No. He is a pure passer more than anything else. He’s got a little Aaron Rodgers in him with that scissor kick and throw where both feet are off the ground. I think he probably picked that up from watching Rodgers.”
After winning a quarterback competition before the season, he compiled a passer rating of 138.2 for a career mark of 111.4. A second scout saw some Joe Montana in him. “Love him,” said a third scout. “He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket.”
Durability is an issue for some teams. They say he played at about 205 pounds before bulking up at pro day, when he didn’t run a 40. Had right shoulder surgery (2018) and right thumb surgery (2019). “If they put him on the ground a lot, it’s like he’s going to break,” a fourth scout said. Hands were 9½ inches. Some scouts have reservations about his ability to lead and blend in a locker room. From Draper, Utah.
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-2 ½, 227, 4.46 40 time, Round 1): Attempted 39 passes in 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2018 before transferring. Two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year for the Buckeyes.
“Tremendous,” said one scout. “Ran 4.44. He’s got all the tools to do it. I hate to bring up (Dwayne) Haskins and Terrelle Pryor or some of those other (Ohio State) quarterbacks there that haven’t done it.”
Career passer rating of 127.6. Also ran for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns. “He’s a very smart guy and I see all the tools,” a second scout said. “If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb. But he’s going to need that redshirt year to kind of mesh.”
Had some fabulous games and a few stinkers in 2020 as well. “He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout. “He’s typically been the biggest, strongest, fastest kid on the field his whole life. He has learned to play football that when they call a pass he drops back and looks. First read, second read, if they’re not there, take off and run. Or if there was pressure, take off and run. At Ohio State, basically the same thing happened. To have him doing full-field reads will be a challenge. At the same time, in the NFL, Cam Newton did that for a decade. If you craft an offense around his skill set and don’t try to jam him into some system that will corral his abilities, then he’s got a chance. If you try to turn him into the classic NFL quarterback, I think you’re going to be frustrated.”
Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. Has small hands (9 1/8). “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a fourth scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play and on the next play I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom.” From Kennesaw, Ga.
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 224, no 40 time, Round 1): Turned down the chance to play safety at his home-state Big Ten team (Minnesota) and spent three seasons in Fargo. Won all 17 of his starts.
“He and Jordan Love, there might not be much difference between them,” said one scout. “He’s not that accurate with the ball. He’s got some mechanical flaws. He drops his weight and then comes back up to kind of generate some power from his lower body. His accuracy is a little erratic. People say he’s a developmental guy. You’re going to draft this guy and sit him for a year? He needs to play. He’s thrown (318) passes in his life. Mahomes threw 300 passes in six weeks at Texas Tech. But how do you take the guy and throw him out there when he’s this green?”
Compiled a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019. In 2020, against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, he had a passer rating of just 72.8 in a 39-28 victory. He also ran for 143 yards. “He might (bust) because of the competition,” said a second scout. “I would be scared as hell to have to draft him. Maybe you fall in love with the workout, then a year later you’re getting a divorce. He’s good but he’s not Cam Newton, I’ll tell you that right now. Don’t confuse him with Cam Newton. He won a (FBS) national championship. This kid’s coming from North Dakota State.”
Led the Bison to the FCS national title in 2019. Finished with a career passer rating of 125.3. Has small hands (9 1/8). “What scares me?” said a third scout. “Inability to throw a catchable football. If you really watch Trey Lance, all the receivers have to make unbelievable adjustments to his throws. He only throws 16 to 18 times a game because of the offense. He’s not a real thrower. I may be wrong on this but, my God, he’s at least three years away.” From Marshall, Minn.
5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2 ½, 217, 4.81 40 time, Round 1): Redshirted as a three-star recruit in 2017, carried a clipboard in ’18, made four starts for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in ’19 and went 13-0 for the national champs in ’20.
“If you throw away the way he looks, and he looks like shit, he’s a really good player,” said one scout. “People want to roll their eyes when you make a comparison with one of the greatest players ever. Is the guy going to win seven Super Bowls? I don’t know, but there are a lot of Tom Brady traits to this player. He’s got that kind of anticipation, that kind of arm. You want to look at him and say he’s not a good athlete, but he’s a functionally really good quarterback athlete. If you ask Tom Brady to scramble he looked like an old man even when he came out.”
His career passer rating of 138.2 edged Tagovailoa’s 138.1 and Baker Mayfield’s 131.1 at Oklahoma. “I love the kid at Alabama, but he’s not Tom Brady,” said a second scout. “Everyone’s trying to find that next Tom Brady or the next Peyton Manning, the non-mobile bell cow. Those guys are wired different. They’re culture guys. A year ago, they didn’t even think he’d be the starter at Alabama.”
Even wears his socks rolled over like Brady. Hands were 9¾.
“If he goes to San Francisco (No. 3), they’ll protect him with the run game,” said a third scout. “A lot of their passing is based on timing, rhythm and play-action. He should be able to do those things. But does he have an explosive arm? No. Does he have an explosive lower body? No. When push comes to shove, what’s the physical trait that gets him off the hook? Well, he doesn’t really have one. He’s got kind of a bad body … when people said he was going to the Saints in the 20s (No. 28), that made sense to me. To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.” From Jacksonville, Fla.
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-5, 236, 5.08 40 time, Rounds 2-3): Compared by one scout to Ben Roethlisberger, although he noted that Big Ben (6-foot-5, 241) ran considerably faster (4.86) coming out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004.
“Nobody’s talking about him,” one scout said. “I’d take him over Lance. He’s a big, strong, tough kid. He’ll step up, and he can throw it. He’s got good enough arm strength. Second round.”
A high school backup in Manvel, Texas, he redshirted in 2016 and then didn’t become a starter until 2019. “I see Jared Goff,” said another scout. “He’s strictly a pocket guy. He has a high, three-quarters release. Quick release, tight ball. He can move around the pocket but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness.”
Finished with a career passer rating of 117.1. “Similar to Jones,” said a third scout. “He’s a game manager. Average arm. He gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting you’ve got a bad team.” Largest hands (10 1/8) of the top quarterbacks.
7. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-3 ½, 217, 4.80 40 time, Round 3): Top-ranked recruit out of Duluth, Ga. Redshirted in 2016 as he rehabilitated a high-school knee injury. Teams also have concerns about the condition of his shoulder.
“He’s a little bit more mobile than Trask,” said one scout. “They’re similar, but I’d take Trask. He could be an eventual starter. His accuracy is really good. Has some injury issues. Really hasn’t played a lot. He had command of the offense. He would get the ball out of his hand.”
Went 6-5 as a starter for the Cardinal with a career passer rating of 95.8. “He’s like a one-read robot where he just stares down (receivers),” a second scout said. “Just not a lot of natural feel for the game. His arm’s good enough. He can run some. He’s not a playmaker. He’s just kind of a one-read, systems-type player.” Hands were 9½.
8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-foot-2 ½, 208, 4.62 40 time, Round 4): Won the job as a true freshman in 2017 and held it all four years.
“Before the season I thought he’d be a free agent,” said one scout. “Now I’ve got him in the fifth or sixth (round). He’s got a strong arm. He’s a good straight-line athlete but he doesn’t adjust well to movement. He’s a little mechanical. He’ll be a competitive backup for someone.”
Showed major improvement as a senior with a passer rating of 104 compared to 71 in 2017, 91.3 in ’18 and 89.2 in ’19. His career mark was 90. “He’s a paint-by-numbers guy,” a second scout said. “He can’t improvise.”
Hands were 9 3/8. “He’s jumpy at everything he does,” a third scout said. “No poise. He’s stiff with his ball carriage and delivery. He can run in a straight line but he’s not fluid and he gets scared when people tackle him.” From San Antonio.
9. Ian Book, Notre Dame (6-foot-0, 211, 4.65 40 time, Round 5): Winningest quarterback in Fighting Irish history. His record was 30-5.
“He won me over this year where he had not in the past,” one scout said. “He’s a good athlete, gritty and tough. He protects the ball. He’s got a better arm than you want to give him credit for. His accuracy can be all over the place, but he doesn’t make bad decisions. He’ll be a good No. 3. He’ll try to be a good No. 2 but I just don’t see it happening.”
Only Brady Quinn remains ahead of him in the Notre Dame passing record book. Finished with a career passer rating of 101.7 while rushing for 1,518 yards and 17 TDs.
“He makes the plays with his feet, but I just didn’t think he had the arm,” said a second scout. “Accuracy was an issue. He looked to tuck it and run a lot. He lacked pocket poise.” Hands were 9 7/8. From El Dorado Hills, Calif.
10. Sam Ehlinger, Texas (6-foot-1, 220, 4.84 40 time, Round 5): Possibly the toughest quarterback in the draft.
“You could honestly probably play him at running back,” said one scout. “He’s tough enough that he’s played special teams. You want this kid on your team. He’s very genuine. The reason you’d be giving him a chance is because of who he is.”
Rushed for 1,907 yards and 33 TDs in a read-option offense designed around his aggressive running style. Fought through injuries throughout four starting seasons. “I don’t think he throws it well enough,” said a second scout. “If he’s your quarterback and he’s got to throw the ball, you’re going to come up short. He’s a great dude, a great teammate, a great leader.”
His career passer rating was 100.1. Hands were 9 5/8. “He’s a gamer,” said a third scout. From Austin, Texas.
11. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (6-foot-6 ½, 234, 4.66 40 time, Round 6): Started 24 games at Florida from 2017-19 before suffering a broken ankle. Kyle Trask took over and Franks transferred to Arkansas after the season.
“He’s a big guy with a strong arm,” said one scout. “He’s not very mobile. Holds the ball. Indecisive. Excellent deep touch. If he has time in the pocket, then he’s good.”
Had a love-hate relationship with Gators fans. “Lots of fire and passion,” said another scout. Made nine starts for the Razorbacks in 2020. Career passer rating of 97.1. Hands were 9¾. “He was very inaccurate,” a third scout said. “The ball was all over the place.” From Crawfordsville, Fla.
12. Jamie Newman, Georgia (6-foot-3, 234, no 40 time, Round 7): Started 16 games at Wake Forest in 2018-19 before departing after it appeared the Demon Deacons were set to start sophomore Sam Hartman in 2020. “At Wake Forest he reminded me of Jordan Love,” said one scout. “He’s a big-time athlete and has a strong arm, but he wasn’t accurate.”
Was in position to start at Georgia but then opted out. “He said he wouldn’t have been prepared properly to play and be successful,” a second scout said. “Never got on the field with (Georgia) coaches because of COVID. He has the ability. He can run the ball. But I’m not sold on this kid.”
Career passer rating of 95. Hands were 9¾. From Graham, N.C.
Others: Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern; K.J. Costello, Mississippi State; Zach Smith, Tulsa; Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist; Brady White, Memphis.
Unsung hero
Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern: Played a role in Indiana’s resurgence by making 23 starts from 2017-19. Joined the Wildcats as a graduate transfer in 2020 and went 7-2 for a team that reached the Big Ten Championship Game. Smart, seasoned, sufficient size (6-foot-2, 213 pounds) and sufficient speed (4.76 40 time). He’ll get an NFL opportunity.
Scouts’ nighmare
Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist: Started 12 games for Texas as a true freshman in 2016 and then seven more in ’17 before Ehlinger took over in ’18. Transferred to SMU and put up big numbers as a 23-game starter from 2019-20. His career passer rating of 97.3 and strong leadership style merit attention. His size (6-foot-0, 210 pounds) and a marginal arm conspire against him.
Scout to remember
Dick Steinberg: As general manager of the Jets in 1990, he hired Ron Wolf from the Raiders as his personnel director. Wolf credited Steinberg with exposing him to an entirely different system of scouting, a 1½-year stint that he called one of the most professionally challenging of his Hall of Fame career. Steinberg helped build Super Bowl teams with the Rams and Patriots in a 25-year scouting career. He died in 1995. He was 60.
Quote to note
AFC personnel executive: “The greatest workout of all time was JaMarcus Russell. These quarterbacks throwing on air … I’m sorry, I just don’t get all worked up about that.”
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Ranking the top running backs in the 2021 NFL Draft: Bob McGinn’s grades are in
Bob McGinn Apr 24, 2021
Editor’s note: This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
If Javonte Williams has detractors, they certainly weren’t among the 13 NFL executives in personnel who discussed him for the NFL Draft series this spring.
Williams, the running back from North Carolina, is widely admired and almost never nit-picked for his three-year career in college football and his chances for a successful career in the football.
“He’s a really good running back,” an NFL general manager said. “I don’t think he makes it past (pick) 40.”
Just 10 running backs have been selected in the first round of the past eight drafts. Alabama’s Najee Harris and Clemson’s Travis Etienne have bigger names and played in bigger games than Williams, but with so much praise emanating from draft rooms it shouldn’t come as a shock if the Tar Heel becomes the first back taken.
“Maybe he gets in the first (round),” an AFC personnel man said. “Doubtful, just because of the position, but he’s super-talented. He’s closer to Najee than people think.”
A survey of 18 executives revealed a three-man race for RB1. They were asked to pick their top five in order, with a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on.
Harris, with 10 firsts, earned 79 points to outpoll Etienne, who had six firsts and 72 points. Williams was next with two firsts and 61 points, followed by Michael Carter (26), Trey Sermon (10), Kenneth Gainwell (nine), Chuba Hubbard (five), Rhamondre Stevenson (three), Kylin Hill (two), Khalil Herbert (one), Elijah Mitchell (one) and Larry Rountree (one).
Williams finished ahead of his teammate, Carter, on 16 of 18 ballots even though Carter made 26 starts compared to two for Williams during their three seasons as backfield partners in Chapel Hill.
It was a spectacular 1-2 punch. The playing time and production was comparable. Carter is a respected prospect as well, with size his only negative.
Some scouts said Williams reminded them of Josh Jacobs, the Alabama backup who went No. 24 to the Raiders in 2019. He finished third, fourth and third in rushing among the Crimson Tide running backs from 2016-18, always playing a reserve role behind the combination of Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Najee Harris.
Jacobs made three starts in college, one more than Williams, but had 114 fewer carries, 809 yards fewer yards and 12 fewer touchdowns from scrimmage. The first Raider to surpass 1,000 yards in successive seasons, Jacobs looks like the real deal.
“Josh Jacobs is a good comparison,” said an AFC scout. “Javonte is a tough player but he’s not as violent. Josh Jacobs plays mean, like with an edge. Javonte definitely has the same level of strength and contact balance.”
Williams rushed for 1,140 yards in 2020, had 19 touchdowns and averaged a stunning 7.3 per carry. His career average of 6.3 compares favorably to Jacobs’ 5.9.
Their speed and size are comparable, too. Williams, 5 feet 9 ½ inches and 212 pounds, ran 4.56. Jacobs (5-foot-10, 220) ran 4.63.
“One-cut, downhill style,” another AFC personnel man said of Williams. “He reminded me of Josh Jacobs. Physical runner. Excellent short-yardage, goal-line runner.”
Other scouts arrived at a much more distinguished player than Jacobs in drawing comparisons to Williams.
“I think he’s got a little bit of Frank Gore in him,” said one scout who at the time was working for one of the five teams that Gore played on. “Frank was 4.6 something. Similar size.”
Gore’s name came up in one AFC draft room when scouts were in the office as a group watching tape of Williams. The similarities would include a low-to-the-ground style, the knack for finding ways in and out of piles, the ability to dart around and through trash to avoid injury and bleeding runs with churning legs and courage.
“Frank never wowed you with speed but he had vision, toughness and contact balance,” said one scout. “Williams has that. He’s a starter.”
According to scouts before the 2005 draft, Gore (5-foot-9 ½, 208 pounds, 4.63 time in the 40) slipped to the third round (No. 65) in 2005 largely because he had suffered a torn anterior cruciate in each knee during his four seasons at Miami and had a weight problem. Gore’s career reached 16 seasons and his 16,000 rushing yards rank third all-time.
“Williams is a really complete running back who plays in an old-school way,” an NFC executive said. “It’s still very effective in today’s game. He will fight for every yard.”
Williams was valedictorian of his high-school class and almost committed to Yale before the Tar Heels offered him a scholarship not long after he led his mid-sized high school to a fourth straight state championship. He played linebacker until his senior year in Wallace, N.C. (pop: 3,900), when he switched to running back and rushed for 2,271 yards.
“It’s his strength and physical passion,” an NFC personnel man said. “Maybe one of the strongest guys you’ve been around in the weight room for his size. Guys just bounce off this guy. He’s got toughness in his running style.
“He’s a natural hands catcher. He’s not going to be the fastest guy on the field but he can break tackles and get big chunks. He’s going to be productive.”
Ranking the running backs
1. Najee Harris, Alabama (6-foot-1 ½, 235 pounds, no 40 time, Projected round: 1-2): Fifth in Heisman Trophy voting in 2020.
“He may be the best back I’ve seen come out of there (Alabama),” one scout said. “He’s way better than (Josh) Jacobs. He’s bigger, stronger. This guy is better than Derrick Henry when he came out, and he’s a star. Watch him catching passes. He looks like a receiver. If I had to pick one guy to star (in this draft), he might be it. He’s the epitome of what you want.”
“I love this kid,” said the scout. “For the first Alabama (pro day), he was in Dallas but something happened with the plane. He drove from Dallas to Alabama overnight to be with his teammates on pro day. He wasn’t working out, but he wanted to be there for his teammates.”
Led the FBS in yards from scrimmage (1,891) and rushing touchdowns (26) in 2020. Finished with 638 carries for 3,843 yards (6.0) and 46 TDs plus 80 receptions. “Don’t let that Alabama stuff fool you,” said a second scout. “Best offensive line. Weakest boxes because they got wideouts everywhere. They don’t run into a loaded box like a lot of these backs have to. I wouldn’t take him in the first (round).”
Harris’ hands (10 ¼ inches) were the largest of the running backs.
“He was the No. 1 recruit in America,” a third scout said. “He got to Alabama and looked like an NFL running back his first week of practice. His best attribute might be catching the ball out in space, and nobody can get him on the ground one-on-one. He’s a 230-pound, skilled big man.”
“He does have a little bit of ‘I’m more important,’ and that could hold him back a little bit,” said a fourth scout. “You need to stroke him a little bit. He doesn’t seem interested in pass (protection). He’s going to have to learn how to do it. But he’s got exceptional hands coming out of the backfield, and he can move in space for a big man.”
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (5-foot-10, 215 pounds, 4.44 in the 40, Round 1-2): Was seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting as a sophomore in 2018 and ninth in 2019.
“These days, people don’t want to take running backs in the first round,” one scout said. “But, man, I would consider him there because he is just so explosive. People will be enamored with his home-run ability and the change of pace. He can press the defense, stick his foot in the ground and haul ass.”
Was Clemson’s last commitment in the 2017 class out of Jennings, La. “Kind-hearted, quiet, low-key guy,” a second scout said. “Has some ‘aw shucks,’ naïve innocence to him. Doesn’t want the limelight or to step on anyone’s toes. Can be too passive. Coachable. Loves football.”
Didn’t start a game as a freshman but still led the Tigers in rushing before starting the past three seasons. Finished with 686 carries for 4,952 yards (7.2) and 70 TDs plus 102 receptions. “He’s more like an in-line, hard-charging type guy,” a third scout said. “I don’t think he’s a natural. This guy is, ‘Here’s the hole. Let me hit it as hard as possible.’ He’s not that nifty. He does have burst. His hands are OK. He’d be a nice rotational starter.”
Led the top 12 backs in the 40 and the broad jump (10 feet, 8 inches). “I’m not a fan,” said a fourth scout. “Product of the system. Everything is opened up for him.”
Neither Etienne nor any of the other top running backs have been marked by teams as a significant medical risk. “He benefits from big-ass holes,” said a fifth scout. “They use him well in the passing game. His feet and body control, he’s kind of all over the place. He doesn’t play big.”
3. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (5-foot-9½, 212 pounds, 4.56 in the 40, Round 2): Has a chance to surpass Willie Parker, Natrone Means and Giovani Bernard as the Tar Heels’ most successful pro running backs.
“He’s a ground pounder,” said one scout. “He’s going to get you 4 to 6 yards every time because he breaks tackles. People bounce off him. He’s a short, thick-hipped, thick-legged kid. He’s got surprising speed. He can get to the corner, but you have to knock ’em all down for him to turn it.”
Third-year junior with 366 carries for 2,297 yards (6.3) and 29 TDs plus 50 receptions. “He led the NCAA in broken tackles running between the tackles last year,” said a second scout. “That’s like Nick Chubb stuff. He is really assertive running in between the tackles.”
From Wallace, N.C. “He might be a No. 3 (back) his first year, but he’s getting carries,” a third scout said. “This kid is better than (Detroit’s) Jamaal Williams. He reminds me of Mike Davis as a runner. At some point this guy is a starter. I don’t see him playing on third downs.”
4. Michael Carter, North Carolina (5-foot-8, 201 pounds, 4.53 in the 40, Round: 2-3): Started for three years but split touches and playing time with Williams.
“He’s going to be Ray Rice,” said one scout. “Tough as nails. He’s a starter. He can play a little bit of slot receiver, too.”
Overcame a major knee injury as a junior in high school. “He can run inside,” said a second scout. “He can turn the corner and take it down the sideline. But I wouldn’t take him until the fourth. At (5-foot-7 and 7/8), you’re not pass-blocking anybody. They’ll take you and throw you into the quarterback. That’s just a fact of life.”
Carried 514 times for 3,404 yards (6.6) and 22 TDs while catching 82 passes. “He’s a complete player,” said a fourth scout. “He wins because he has really good vision and footwork. Really good athlete.”
From Navarre, Fla. “He’s just a system-type path runner,” a fourth scout said. “Average size, average speed. Kind of gets what’s blocked. They used him as a receiver a lot, but I don’t think he has natural hands. He didn’t fire me up.”
5. Trey Sermon, Ohio State (6-foot-0 ½, 215 pounds, 4.60 in the 40, Round 3-4): Graduated from Oklahoma in three years before joining the Buckeyes for a final season.
“He’s a tough guy,” said one scout. “Breaks a lot of tackles. For a big guy he’s got some niftiness. Not really elusive. Not a second-level, take-the-top-off player. He stiff-arms people really well. Grind-it-out type.”
Started 19 of 37 games for the Sooners from 2017-19. In Columbus, he played behind Master Teague for four games before breaking loose. Broke Eddie George’s single-game rushing record with 331 yards against Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. “He essentially lost his job at Oklahoma and didn’t get the job at Ohio State until another guy (Teague) got hurt,” said a second scout. “Yes, he made the most of it, but I just don’t think he’s special. I called him a bully back. He puts the shoulder down and looks violent at the second and third level. He’s not soft through the line of scrimmage but he’s not a move-the-pile guy. Below average in the passing game.”
Finished with 455 carries for 2,946 yards (6.5) and 26 TDs plus 48 receptions. From Marietta, Ga.
6. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (5-foot-8½, 201 pounds, 4.47 in the 40, Round 3-4): Redshirted in 2018 after playing minimally in four games. Exploded for 2,069 yards from scrimmage in ’19 and opted out of ’20 after four members of his family died from COVID-19 issues.
“He’s like the kid Dallas took in the fourth round two years ago — (Tony Pollard),” one scout said. “I thought he was better than Tony Pollard.” Renounced his final two seasons of eligibility. “After Etienne he’s probably the best receiver,” said a second scout. “He’s a lot like Alvin Kamara. Only this guy’s faster. More of a straight-line runner.”
Played quarterback in high school at Yazoo City, Miss. “At worst, he could give you something as a backup runner and on third down,” said a third scout. “He’s slippery. He’s one of those guys who could end up being a really good pro. He’ll go in the third or fourth and end up becoming a starter.”
Played just 18 games. Finished with 235 carries for 1,550 yards (6.6) and 14 TDs plus 57 receptions. “I didn’t see a guy that could really bust and run through contact, which you’ve got to be able to do unless you can manufacture space for him,” a fourth scout said.
7. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (6-foot-0, 210 pounds, 4.50 in the 30, Round 4): Performed like a potential first-round pick in 2019 with 2,094 yards on the ground. Was limited to 625 yards in seven games last season before sitting out the last four games with an ankle injury.
“He didn’t have a very good season this year,” said one scout. “He’s quick and has big-play ability, but he’s not very physical. I didn’t think he was tough.”
Averaged 6.4 yards in 2019 and just 4.7 in 2020. “He’s a timid guy,” a second scout said. “I don’t think he has great feel. Just one speed. Not much balance. Not that impressive.”
Finished with 585 carries for 3,459 yards (5.9) and 33 TDs plus 53 receptions. “He doesn’t finish his runs strong,” said a third scout. “Inconsistent pass (protection). He just has enough foot quickness. He doesn’t have long speed. He can’t create. He’s too inconsistent.” From Sherwood Park, Alberta, Canada.
8. Larry Rountree, Missouri (5-foot-10 ½, 213 pounds, 4.69 in the 40, Round 4-5): Gained 703 yards as a freshman backup before leading the Tigers in rushing as the starter the past three years.
“He runs every play like it will be the last time he’ll ever touch the football,” one scout said. “He’s violent. I loved the kid. His passion, his drive, his maturity. If he can get it, and that’s for coaches to say, he’s talented enough as a player.”
More than one team expressed reservations about his ability to master an NFL offense. Otherwise, he was highly productive. Carried 746 times for 3,720 yards (5.0) and 40 TDs and had 47 receptions. “He’s one of the better backs but he’s not being talked about,” a second scout said.
Did himself no favors by running a slow 40. “He doesn’t have top-end speed,” a third scout said. “He’s got feet and balance. He’s really good in pass (protection) and blitz pickup. He attacks guys. Knocks ’em on their ass. Likes to play in close games. I just like everything about him.” From Raleigh, N.C.
9. Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech (5-foot-9, 207 pounds, 4.49 in the 40, Round 4-5): Started 13 of 33 games from 2016-19 at Kansas before deciding to redshirt four games into the 2019 season. Had his best season as a grad transfer for the Hokies in ’20.
“He’s just solid at everything,” one scout said. “Nothing stands out. He’ll be a good pro. Not your first guy but could be a solid second. Ideally, to me, he’s a third.” Averaged 7.7 yards on 154 carries in 2020, gaining 1,182 yards. “He’s interesting,” said a second scout. “Kind of a good backup. He’s got to develop more in the passing game. Fluid. Has a little burst to him.”
Finished with 468 carries for 2,904 yards (6.2) and 22 TDs plus 32 receptions. “He can get to the second level in a hurry,” said a third scout. “Good hands, not great hands. Just a hard-charging runner who only has one year of production.” From Coral Springs, Fla.
10. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (5-foot-10, 206 pounds, 4.59 in the 40, Round 5): Third-year junior.
“He was impressive in 2018, was hurt much of 2019 (missed three games) and looked good again this year,” said one scout. “He’s short, but he’s thick. Catches the ball well. He’s really strong. Does take a lot of punishment. He’s an explosive back.”
Declared a year early after carrying 514 times for 2,923 yards (5.7) and scoring 27 TDs. Had only 43 receptions, including nine in each of the past two seasons. “He’s a wide-zone runner,” a second scout said. “On contact he goes down easy. He’s got no contact balance. He’s got no pass protection. He’s not really an accomplished catcher out of the backfield.” From Harbor City, Calif.
11. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State (5-foot-10 ½, 214 pounds, 4.56 in the 40, Round 5-6): Few doubt his ability after seeing him rush for 1,350 yards in 2019.
“He’s a really explosive athlete,” said one scout. “He’ll be good. Good outside runner. Between the tackles he struggles a little bit with his vision, but he jumps over people and he can catch the ball.”
New Bulldogs coach Mike Leach suspended Hill for a game in 2020 for a postgame outburst before Hill opted out of the season after three games.
Caught 23 passes in just three games last season, impressing another scout. “What he showed this year was more pass-game value,” he said. “Things didn’t go well for him there this year but talent-wise, I like him. Every-down player. He’s not small. Gives you some inside-outside run. Third round is fair.”
Started 27 of 40 games, finishing with 452 carries for 2,535 yards (5.6) and 16 TDs to go with 67 receptions.
12. Javian Hawkins, Louisville (5-foot-8, 183 pounds, 4.46 in the 40, Round 6): Third-year sophomore.
“This kid can put his foot in the ground and go,” said one scout. “He’s shifty. They didn’t use him a ton in the passing game but he can catch the ball pretty good. For a smaller guy he was actually better in pass (protection) than what I thought he’d be. As a talent, this kid could get drafted third or fourth round. Just high bust potential.”
Finished with 399 carries for 2,355 yards (5.9) and 16 TDs plus 21 receptions. “Too small to be a runner with any regularity,” a third scout said. “Very productive in their system. Package player on (NFL) level.” From Titusville, Fla.
Others: Chris Evans, Michigan; Kene Nwangwu, Iowa State; Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana Lafayette; Jake Funk, Maryland; Jaret Patterson, Buffalo; Gerrid Doaks, Cincinnati; Pooka Williams, Kansas; Spencer Brown, UAB; Trey Ragas, Louisiana Lafayette.
Ranking the fullbacks
1. Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma (5-foot-11½, 231 pounds, 4.64 in the 40, Round 3-4): Compared by two scouts to ex-Packer Eddie Lacy.
“Eddie was more gifted — just the body type and the style is very similar,” said one scout. “He does have good feet for a big guy. AJ Dillon was big, kind of one speed, not very elusive. But he was 6-foot-2, 250 pounds and ran a 4.4. This guy is a big back, but he’s nimble and instinctive. He does have some foot quickness and lateral ability, but he’s a 4.6 guy. Dillon plays to a 4.6. He leaned out a lot (227) for the Senior Bowl. He played almost at 240 at times.”
Trey Sermon’s transfer in 2020 was precipitated by Stevenson’s ascension. Stevenson failed an NCAA drug test in December 2019, forcing him to miss a College Football Playoff game and the first five games of 2020.
Sat out 2016 getting his academic standing in order. Played junior college ball in 2017-18, backed up for the Sooners in 2019 and started five games in 2020. “He’s faster than you realize,” a second scout said. “He’s a little bit slower than Najee Harris, but not much. He’s got a little work to do, but that’d be a pretty good developmental prospect.” Finished with 165 carries for 1,180 yards (7.2) and 13 TDs plus 28 receptions. From Las Vegas.
2. Ben Mason, Michigan (6-2½, 246, 4.76, 4-5): Jack of all trades, playing a lot of special teams and some fullback, some H-back and some defensive tackle.
“He’s a freaking insane tough guy,” said one scout. “I just like the way he carries himself. He’s a pretty good blocker. He doesn’t have athletic ability. Maybe he’ll be like (Patrick) Ricard.”
Led fullbacks in the vertical jump (37 ½), broad jump (9 foot, 9 inches) and bench press (29). The Michigan staff raved about his leadership ability. “He came in as a linebacker, went to fullback, went to (defensive) line and back to fullback,” another scout said. “He’s more like the old-school, bruising, run-blocking fullback. Physical and tough. Don’t know how much he has as a receiving threat.” Finished with 37 carries for 87 yards (2.4) and nine TDs plus three receptions. From Newtown, Conn.
3. Tory Carter, LSU (6-foot-0½, 229 pounds, 4.89 in the 40, Round 7-free agent): Was a force on special teams and at fullback for four seasons.
“He can block,” said one scout. “He’s physical. He caught the ball really well at pro day. He has really good hands. He was better than I expected. You could tell that he lost weight to run (at pro day). He’s naturally around 235 (pounds) or 240.” Finished with two carries for 4 yards plus 16 receptions. From Valdosta, Ga. Sat out three games in 2020 due to suspension.
Others: Mason Stokke, Wisconsin; Carl Tucker, Alabama; Adam Prentice, South Carolina.
Unsung hero
Jake Funk, RB, Maryland: NFL special-teams coaches have identified him as one of the best in college football. Good height-weight-speed mix (5-foot-10, 204 pounds, 4.53 in the 40). Led running backs in the 3-cone (6.82). Carried 60 times in 2020 and averaged 8.6 yards. The negative is he played just three games in 2018 and ’19 because of two torn ACLs in his left knee.
Scouts’ nightmare
Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana Lafayette: Teams really aren’t sure what they have in Mitchell. He weighed 215 pounds at the Senior Bowl. On March 29, he weighed 201 for pro day and ran a blazing 4.39 40. A three-year starter, he rushed for 3,267 yards (6.2) and 41 TDs. Maybe by now Mitchell has put the weight back on. If not, he wouldn’t be the same strong inside runner that he was at 215 pounds.
Scout to remember
Angelo Coia: In the mid-1950s when Al Davis was line coach and chief recruiter at The Citadel, he scored a recruiting coup by signing Coia, a split end from Philadelphia. When Davis moved to USC as an assistant, he brought Coia with him. After Coia’s seven-year NFL career spent mostly with the Bears, he worked in business. In 1983, Davis hired Coia as a college scout, a position he held until 2012. Coia, a world-class 400-meter runner at USC, was Davis’ expert on speed. He died in 2013. He was 74.
Quote to note
AFC personnel executive: “A lot of the cuts backs make in college are unrealistic in the NFL. In college, they’ve got those big giant lanes to run through. In college, everything is spread the field. In the NFL, you’re looking for guys that make runs in traffic or make sudden cuts and read the line of scrimmage.”
Bob McGinn Apr 24, 2021
Editor’s note: This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
If Javonte Williams has detractors, they certainly weren’t among the 13 NFL executives in personnel who discussed him for the NFL Draft series this spring.
Williams, the running back from North Carolina, is widely admired and almost never nit-picked for his three-year career in college football and his chances for a successful career in the football.
“He’s a really good running back,” an NFL general manager said. “I don’t think he makes it past (pick) 40.”
Just 10 running backs have been selected in the first round of the past eight drafts. Alabama’s Najee Harris and Clemson’s Travis Etienne have bigger names and played in bigger games than Williams, but with so much praise emanating from draft rooms it shouldn’t come as a shock if the Tar Heel becomes the first back taken.
“Maybe he gets in the first (round),” an AFC personnel man said. “Doubtful, just because of the position, but he’s super-talented. He’s closer to Najee than people think.”
A survey of 18 executives revealed a three-man race for RB1. They were asked to pick their top five in order, with a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on.
Harris, with 10 firsts, earned 79 points to outpoll Etienne, who had six firsts and 72 points. Williams was next with two firsts and 61 points, followed by Michael Carter (26), Trey Sermon (10), Kenneth Gainwell (nine), Chuba Hubbard (five), Rhamondre Stevenson (three), Kylin Hill (two), Khalil Herbert (one), Elijah Mitchell (one) and Larry Rountree (one).
Williams finished ahead of his teammate, Carter, on 16 of 18 ballots even though Carter made 26 starts compared to two for Williams during their three seasons as backfield partners in Chapel Hill.
It was a spectacular 1-2 punch. The playing time and production was comparable. Carter is a respected prospect as well, with size his only negative.
Some scouts said Williams reminded them of Josh Jacobs, the Alabama backup who went No. 24 to the Raiders in 2019. He finished third, fourth and third in rushing among the Crimson Tide running backs from 2016-18, always playing a reserve role behind the combination of Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Najee Harris.
Jacobs made three starts in college, one more than Williams, but had 114 fewer carries, 809 yards fewer yards and 12 fewer touchdowns from scrimmage. The first Raider to surpass 1,000 yards in successive seasons, Jacobs looks like the real deal.
“Josh Jacobs is a good comparison,” said an AFC scout. “Javonte is a tough player but he’s not as violent. Josh Jacobs plays mean, like with an edge. Javonte definitely has the same level of strength and contact balance.”
Williams rushed for 1,140 yards in 2020, had 19 touchdowns and averaged a stunning 7.3 per carry. His career average of 6.3 compares favorably to Jacobs’ 5.9.
Their speed and size are comparable, too. Williams, 5 feet 9 ½ inches and 212 pounds, ran 4.56. Jacobs (5-foot-10, 220) ran 4.63.
“One-cut, downhill style,” another AFC personnel man said of Williams. “He reminded me of Josh Jacobs. Physical runner. Excellent short-yardage, goal-line runner.”
Other scouts arrived at a much more distinguished player than Jacobs in drawing comparisons to Williams.
“I think he’s got a little bit of Frank Gore in him,” said one scout who at the time was working for one of the five teams that Gore played on. “Frank was 4.6 something. Similar size.”
Gore’s name came up in one AFC draft room when scouts were in the office as a group watching tape of Williams. The similarities would include a low-to-the-ground style, the knack for finding ways in and out of piles, the ability to dart around and through trash to avoid injury and bleeding runs with churning legs and courage.
“Frank never wowed you with speed but he had vision, toughness and contact balance,” said one scout. “Williams has that. He’s a starter.”
According to scouts before the 2005 draft, Gore (5-foot-9 ½, 208 pounds, 4.63 time in the 40) slipped to the third round (No. 65) in 2005 largely because he had suffered a torn anterior cruciate in each knee during his four seasons at Miami and had a weight problem. Gore’s career reached 16 seasons and his 16,000 rushing yards rank third all-time.
“Williams is a really complete running back who plays in an old-school way,” an NFC executive said. “It’s still very effective in today’s game. He will fight for every yard.”
Williams was valedictorian of his high-school class and almost committed to Yale before the Tar Heels offered him a scholarship not long after he led his mid-sized high school to a fourth straight state championship. He played linebacker until his senior year in Wallace, N.C. (pop: 3,900), when he switched to running back and rushed for 2,271 yards.
“It’s his strength and physical passion,” an NFC personnel man said. “Maybe one of the strongest guys you’ve been around in the weight room for his size. Guys just bounce off this guy. He’s got toughness in his running style.
“He’s a natural hands catcher. He’s not going to be the fastest guy on the field but he can break tackles and get big chunks. He’s going to be productive.”
Ranking the running backs
1. Najee Harris, Alabama (6-foot-1 ½, 235 pounds, no 40 time, Projected round: 1-2): Fifth in Heisman Trophy voting in 2020.
“He may be the best back I’ve seen come out of there (Alabama),” one scout said. “He’s way better than (Josh) Jacobs. He’s bigger, stronger. This guy is better than Derrick Henry when he came out, and he’s a star. Watch him catching passes. He looks like a receiver. If I had to pick one guy to star (in this draft), he might be it. He’s the epitome of what you want.”
“I love this kid,” said the scout. “For the first Alabama (pro day), he was in Dallas but something happened with the plane. He drove from Dallas to Alabama overnight to be with his teammates on pro day. He wasn’t working out, but he wanted to be there for his teammates.”
Led the FBS in yards from scrimmage (1,891) and rushing touchdowns (26) in 2020. Finished with 638 carries for 3,843 yards (6.0) and 46 TDs plus 80 receptions. “Don’t let that Alabama stuff fool you,” said a second scout. “Best offensive line. Weakest boxes because they got wideouts everywhere. They don’t run into a loaded box like a lot of these backs have to. I wouldn’t take him in the first (round).”
Harris’ hands (10 ¼ inches) were the largest of the running backs.
“He was the No. 1 recruit in America,” a third scout said. “He got to Alabama and looked like an NFL running back his first week of practice. His best attribute might be catching the ball out in space, and nobody can get him on the ground one-on-one. He’s a 230-pound, skilled big man.”
“He does have a little bit of ‘I’m more important,’ and that could hold him back a little bit,” said a fourth scout. “You need to stroke him a little bit. He doesn’t seem interested in pass (protection). He’s going to have to learn how to do it. But he’s got exceptional hands coming out of the backfield, and he can move in space for a big man.”
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (5-foot-10, 215 pounds, 4.44 in the 40, Round 1-2): Was seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting as a sophomore in 2018 and ninth in 2019.
“These days, people don’t want to take running backs in the first round,” one scout said. “But, man, I would consider him there because he is just so explosive. People will be enamored with his home-run ability and the change of pace. He can press the defense, stick his foot in the ground and haul ass.”
Was Clemson’s last commitment in the 2017 class out of Jennings, La. “Kind-hearted, quiet, low-key guy,” a second scout said. “Has some ‘aw shucks,’ naïve innocence to him. Doesn’t want the limelight or to step on anyone’s toes. Can be too passive. Coachable. Loves football.”
Didn’t start a game as a freshman but still led the Tigers in rushing before starting the past three seasons. Finished with 686 carries for 4,952 yards (7.2) and 70 TDs plus 102 receptions. “He’s more like an in-line, hard-charging type guy,” a third scout said. “I don’t think he’s a natural. This guy is, ‘Here’s the hole. Let me hit it as hard as possible.’ He’s not that nifty. He does have burst. His hands are OK. He’d be a nice rotational starter.”
Led the top 12 backs in the 40 and the broad jump (10 feet, 8 inches). “I’m not a fan,” said a fourth scout. “Product of the system. Everything is opened up for him.”
Neither Etienne nor any of the other top running backs have been marked by teams as a significant medical risk. “He benefits from big-ass holes,” said a fifth scout. “They use him well in the passing game. His feet and body control, he’s kind of all over the place. He doesn’t play big.”
3. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (5-foot-9½, 212 pounds, 4.56 in the 40, Round 2): Has a chance to surpass Willie Parker, Natrone Means and Giovani Bernard as the Tar Heels’ most successful pro running backs.
“He’s a ground pounder,” said one scout. “He’s going to get you 4 to 6 yards every time because he breaks tackles. People bounce off him. He’s a short, thick-hipped, thick-legged kid. He’s got surprising speed. He can get to the corner, but you have to knock ’em all down for him to turn it.”
Third-year junior with 366 carries for 2,297 yards (6.3) and 29 TDs plus 50 receptions. “He led the NCAA in broken tackles running between the tackles last year,” said a second scout. “That’s like Nick Chubb stuff. He is really assertive running in between the tackles.”
From Wallace, N.C. “He might be a No. 3 (back) his first year, but he’s getting carries,” a third scout said. “This kid is better than (Detroit’s) Jamaal Williams. He reminds me of Mike Davis as a runner. At some point this guy is a starter. I don’t see him playing on third downs.”
4. Michael Carter, North Carolina (5-foot-8, 201 pounds, 4.53 in the 40, Round: 2-3): Started for three years but split touches and playing time with Williams.
“He’s going to be Ray Rice,” said one scout. “Tough as nails. He’s a starter. He can play a little bit of slot receiver, too.”
Overcame a major knee injury as a junior in high school. “He can run inside,” said a second scout. “He can turn the corner and take it down the sideline. But I wouldn’t take him until the fourth. At (5-foot-7 and 7/8), you’re not pass-blocking anybody. They’ll take you and throw you into the quarterback. That’s just a fact of life.”
Carried 514 times for 3,404 yards (6.6) and 22 TDs while catching 82 passes. “He’s a complete player,” said a fourth scout. “He wins because he has really good vision and footwork. Really good athlete.”
From Navarre, Fla. “He’s just a system-type path runner,” a fourth scout said. “Average size, average speed. Kind of gets what’s blocked. They used him as a receiver a lot, but I don’t think he has natural hands. He didn’t fire me up.”
5. Trey Sermon, Ohio State (6-foot-0 ½, 215 pounds, 4.60 in the 40, Round 3-4): Graduated from Oklahoma in three years before joining the Buckeyes for a final season.
“He’s a tough guy,” said one scout. “Breaks a lot of tackles. For a big guy he’s got some niftiness. Not really elusive. Not a second-level, take-the-top-off player. He stiff-arms people really well. Grind-it-out type.”
Started 19 of 37 games for the Sooners from 2017-19. In Columbus, he played behind Master Teague for four games before breaking loose. Broke Eddie George’s single-game rushing record with 331 yards against Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. “He essentially lost his job at Oklahoma and didn’t get the job at Ohio State until another guy (Teague) got hurt,” said a second scout. “Yes, he made the most of it, but I just don’t think he’s special. I called him a bully back. He puts the shoulder down and looks violent at the second and third level. He’s not soft through the line of scrimmage but he’s not a move-the-pile guy. Below average in the passing game.”
Finished with 455 carries for 2,946 yards (6.5) and 26 TDs plus 48 receptions. From Marietta, Ga.
6. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (5-foot-8½, 201 pounds, 4.47 in the 40, Round 3-4): Redshirted in 2018 after playing minimally in four games. Exploded for 2,069 yards from scrimmage in ’19 and opted out of ’20 after four members of his family died from COVID-19 issues.
“He’s like the kid Dallas took in the fourth round two years ago — (Tony Pollard),” one scout said. “I thought he was better than Tony Pollard.” Renounced his final two seasons of eligibility. “After Etienne he’s probably the best receiver,” said a second scout. “He’s a lot like Alvin Kamara. Only this guy’s faster. More of a straight-line runner.”
Played quarterback in high school at Yazoo City, Miss. “At worst, he could give you something as a backup runner and on third down,” said a third scout. “He’s slippery. He’s one of those guys who could end up being a really good pro. He’ll go in the third or fourth and end up becoming a starter.”
Played just 18 games. Finished with 235 carries for 1,550 yards (6.6) and 14 TDs plus 57 receptions. “I didn’t see a guy that could really bust and run through contact, which you’ve got to be able to do unless you can manufacture space for him,” a fourth scout said.
7. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (6-foot-0, 210 pounds, 4.50 in the 30, Round 4): Performed like a potential first-round pick in 2019 with 2,094 yards on the ground. Was limited to 625 yards in seven games last season before sitting out the last four games with an ankle injury.
“He didn’t have a very good season this year,” said one scout. “He’s quick and has big-play ability, but he’s not very physical. I didn’t think he was tough.”
Averaged 6.4 yards in 2019 and just 4.7 in 2020. “He’s a timid guy,” a second scout said. “I don’t think he has great feel. Just one speed. Not much balance. Not that impressive.”
Finished with 585 carries for 3,459 yards (5.9) and 33 TDs plus 53 receptions. “He doesn’t finish his runs strong,” said a third scout. “Inconsistent pass (protection). He just has enough foot quickness. He doesn’t have long speed. He can’t create. He’s too inconsistent.” From Sherwood Park, Alberta, Canada.
8. Larry Rountree, Missouri (5-foot-10 ½, 213 pounds, 4.69 in the 40, Round 4-5): Gained 703 yards as a freshman backup before leading the Tigers in rushing as the starter the past three years.
“He runs every play like it will be the last time he’ll ever touch the football,” one scout said. “He’s violent. I loved the kid. His passion, his drive, his maturity. If he can get it, and that’s for coaches to say, he’s talented enough as a player.”
More than one team expressed reservations about his ability to master an NFL offense. Otherwise, he was highly productive. Carried 746 times for 3,720 yards (5.0) and 40 TDs and had 47 receptions. “He’s one of the better backs but he’s not being talked about,” a second scout said.
Did himself no favors by running a slow 40. “He doesn’t have top-end speed,” a third scout said. “He’s got feet and balance. He’s really good in pass (protection) and blitz pickup. He attacks guys. Knocks ’em on their ass. Likes to play in close games. I just like everything about him.” From Raleigh, N.C.
9. Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech (5-foot-9, 207 pounds, 4.49 in the 40, Round 4-5): Started 13 of 33 games from 2016-19 at Kansas before deciding to redshirt four games into the 2019 season. Had his best season as a grad transfer for the Hokies in ’20.
“He’s just solid at everything,” one scout said. “Nothing stands out. He’ll be a good pro. Not your first guy but could be a solid second. Ideally, to me, he’s a third.” Averaged 7.7 yards on 154 carries in 2020, gaining 1,182 yards. “He’s interesting,” said a second scout. “Kind of a good backup. He’s got to develop more in the passing game. Fluid. Has a little burst to him.”
Finished with 468 carries for 2,904 yards (6.2) and 22 TDs plus 32 receptions. “He can get to the second level in a hurry,” said a third scout. “Good hands, not great hands. Just a hard-charging runner who only has one year of production.” From Coral Springs, Fla.
10. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (5-foot-10, 206 pounds, 4.59 in the 40, Round 5): Third-year junior.
“He was impressive in 2018, was hurt much of 2019 (missed three games) and looked good again this year,” said one scout. “He’s short, but he’s thick. Catches the ball well. He’s really strong. Does take a lot of punishment. He’s an explosive back.”
Declared a year early after carrying 514 times for 2,923 yards (5.7) and scoring 27 TDs. Had only 43 receptions, including nine in each of the past two seasons. “He’s a wide-zone runner,” a second scout said. “On contact he goes down easy. He’s got no contact balance. He’s got no pass protection. He’s not really an accomplished catcher out of the backfield.” From Harbor City, Calif.
11. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State (5-foot-10 ½, 214 pounds, 4.56 in the 40, Round 5-6): Few doubt his ability after seeing him rush for 1,350 yards in 2019.
“He’s a really explosive athlete,” said one scout. “He’ll be good. Good outside runner. Between the tackles he struggles a little bit with his vision, but he jumps over people and he can catch the ball.”
New Bulldogs coach Mike Leach suspended Hill for a game in 2020 for a postgame outburst before Hill opted out of the season after three games.
Caught 23 passes in just three games last season, impressing another scout. “What he showed this year was more pass-game value,” he said. “Things didn’t go well for him there this year but talent-wise, I like him. Every-down player. He’s not small. Gives you some inside-outside run. Third round is fair.”
Started 27 of 40 games, finishing with 452 carries for 2,535 yards (5.6) and 16 TDs to go with 67 receptions.
12. Javian Hawkins, Louisville (5-foot-8, 183 pounds, 4.46 in the 40, Round 6): Third-year sophomore.
“This kid can put his foot in the ground and go,” said one scout. “He’s shifty. They didn’t use him a ton in the passing game but he can catch the ball pretty good. For a smaller guy he was actually better in pass (protection) than what I thought he’d be. As a talent, this kid could get drafted third or fourth round. Just high bust potential.”
Finished with 399 carries for 2,355 yards (5.9) and 16 TDs plus 21 receptions. “Too small to be a runner with any regularity,” a third scout said. “Very productive in their system. Package player on (NFL) level.” From Titusville, Fla.
Others: Chris Evans, Michigan; Kene Nwangwu, Iowa State; Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana Lafayette; Jake Funk, Maryland; Jaret Patterson, Buffalo; Gerrid Doaks, Cincinnati; Pooka Williams, Kansas; Spencer Brown, UAB; Trey Ragas, Louisiana Lafayette.
Ranking the fullbacks
1. Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma (5-foot-11½, 231 pounds, 4.64 in the 40, Round 3-4): Compared by two scouts to ex-Packer Eddie Lacy.
“Eddie was more gifted — just the body type and the style is very similar,” said one scout. “He does have good feet for a big guy. AJ Dillon was big, kind of one speed, not very elusive. But he was 6-foot-2, 250 pounds and ran a 4.4. This guy is a big back, but he’s nimble and instinctive. He does have some foot quickness and lateral ability, but he’s a 4.6 guy. Dillon plays to a 4.6. He leaned out a lot (227) for the Senior Bowl. He played almost at 240 at times.”
Trey Sermon’s transfer in 2020 was precipitated by Stevenson’s ascension. Stevenson failed an NCAA drug test in December 2019, forcing him to miss a College Football Playoff game and the first five games of 2020.
Sat out 2016 getting his academic standing in order. Played junior college ball in 2017-18, backed up for the Sooners in 2019 and started five games in 2020. “He’s faster than you realize,” a second scout said. “He’s a little bit slower than Najee Harris, but not much. He’s got a little work to do, but that’d be a pretty good developmental prospect.” Finished with 165 carries for 1,180 yards (7.2) and 13 TDs plus 28 receptions. From Las Vegas.
2. Ben Mason, Michigan (6-2½, 246, 4.76, 4-5): Jack of all trades, playing a lot of special teams and some fullback, some H-back and some defensive tackle.
“He’s a freaking insane tough guy,” said one scout. “I just like the way he carries himself. He’s a pretty good blocker. He doesn’t have athletic ability. Maybe he’ll be like (Patrick) Ricard.”
Led fullbacks in the vertical jump (37 ½), broad jump (9 foot, 9 inches) and bench press (29). The Michigan staff raved about his leadership ability. “He came in as a linebacker, went to fullback, went to (defensive) line and back to fullback,” another scout said. “He’s more like the old-school, bruising, run-blocking fullback. Physical and tough. Don’t know how much he has as a receiving threat.” Finished with 37 carries for 87 yards (2.4) and nine TDs plus three receptions. From Newtown, Conn.
3. Tory Carter, LSU (6-foot-0½, 229 pounds, 4.89 in the 40, Round 7-free agent): Was a force on special teams and at fullback for four seasons.
“He can block,” said one scout. “He’s physical. He caught the ball really well at pro day. He has really good hands. He was better than I expected. You could tell that he lost weight to run (at pro day). He’s naturally around 235 (pounds) or 240.” Finished with two carries for 4 yards plus 16 receptions. From Valdosta, Ga. Sat out three games in 2020 due to suspension.
Others: Mason Stokke, Wisconsin; Carl Tucker, Alabama; Adam Prentice, South Carolina.
Unsung hero
Jake Funk, RB, Maryland: NFL special-teams coaches have identified him as one of the best in college football. Good height-weight-speed mix (5-foot-10, 204 pounds, 4.53 in the 40). Led running backs in the 3-cone (6.82). Carried 60 times in 2020 and averaged 8.6 yards. The negative is he played just three games in 2018 and ’19 because of two torn ACLs in his left knee.
Scouts’ nightmare
Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana Lafayette: Teams really aren’t sure what they have in Mitchell. He weighed 215 pounds at the Senior Bowl. On March 29, he weighed 201 for pro day and ran a blazing 4.39 40. A three-year starter, he rushed for 3,267 yards (6.2) and 41 TDs. Maybe by now Mitchell has put the weight back on. If not, he wouldn’t be the same strong inside runner that he was at 215 pounds.
Scout to remember
Angelo Coia: In the mid-1950s when Al Davis was line coach and chief recruiter at The Citadel, he scored a recruiting coup by signing Coia, a split end from Philadelphia. When Davis moved to USC as an assistant, he brought Coia with him. After Coia’s seven-year NFL career spent mostly with the Bears, he worked in business. In 1983, Davis hired Coia as a college scout, a position he held until 2012. Coia, a world-class 400-meter runner at USC, was Davis’ expert on speed. He died in 2013. He was 74.
Quote to note
AFC personnel executive: “A lot of the cuts backs make in college are unrealistic in the NFL. In college, they’ve got those big giant lanes to run through. In college, everything is spread the field. In the NFL, you’re looking for guys that make runs in traffic or make sudden cuts and read the line of scrimmage.”
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Ranking the top defensive linemen in the 2021 NFL Draft: Bob McGinn’s grades are in
Bob McGinn Apr 25, 2021
This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
How weak is the crop of defensive linemen in this week’s NFL Draft?
“Probably the (weakest) group of interior (defensive) linemen in several decades,” said an NFL decision-maker with 20-plus years of carrying a stopwatch. “With 1-techniques, I don’t even know who people would be talking about. There aren’t any.”
Another summed it up this way: It’s a “light board.”
Alabama’s Christian Barmore, a third-year sophomore, is expected to be the first big man taken, but that status is regarded as more by default.
“Barmore came out in the right draft, that’s for sure,” one scout said.
No position over the years other than maybe quarterback has lent itself to over-drafting than the defensive line. There’s a limited supply of 300-pound men with the strength to stand their ground against even beefier blockers, the skill and quickness to slip past blockers and pressure the passer and the stamina to play all-out on every play.
Eight years ago, when just two defensive linemen went in the first round, a personnel evaluator said before the draft, “There’s only two 5-techniques that I like, and there aren’t any noses. Some of these guys are going to get drafted too high because there’s nobody available.”
Not every team could fill the never-ending hunt for reinforcements up front in free agency this spring. One team left its winter meetings with fewer than 10 defensive linemen graded as draftable; even in that weak class of 2014, a total of 23 defensive linemen ended up being drafted.
A review of the defensive linemen in the 2014 draft suggests that the apprehension among clubs this year certainly is warranted.
The 2014 class produced Aaron Donald, who went No. 13 to the Rams and already ranks as one of the all-time greats. Maybe there’s an Aaron Donald in this year’s bunch. More than likely, there isn’t.
The only other inside player in that first round, Dominique Easley, hung around for five years but didn’t do much.
Other than Donald, just three defensive linemen from the 2014 class have started 50 games: DaQuan Jones (fourth round), previously with the Titans and now with the Panthers, has 93 starts; Pittsburgh’s Stephon Tuitt (second round) has 79; and Shamar Stephen (seventh round), formerly with the Vikings and now with the Broncos, has 65.
Others that have logged seven seasons include Timmy Jernigan (second round), Justin Ellis (fourth round), Brent Urban (fourth round) and Daniel McCullers (final pick in the sixth round).
Besides Easley (Patriots, No. 29), the parade of busts included Ra’Shede Hageman (Falcons, No. 37), Ego Ferguson (Bears, No. 51), Jay Bromley (Giants, No. 74) and Khyri Thornton (Packers, No. 85).
After a bumper crop of defensive linemen entered the league in 2019, the storm warnings were up again in 2020. Just two of them, the Panthers’ Derrick Brown and the 49ers’ Javon Kinlaw, were selected in the first round of what was regarded as a thin class.
“At some point, you’ve got to take a shot on these guys,” one personnel executive said not long before that draft. “These dudes don’t grow on trees.”
With one season in the books, how does that group look now? It’s too early to tell, of course, but nobody had more than two sacks (Brown had two), and no one had more than four tackles for loss other than Brown, the seventh pick overall who had eight. He and Kinlaw, the No. 14 choice, made the All-Rookie Team.
Besides the first-round picks, just two others have reached 50 percent playing time: Dolphins second-rounder Raekwon Davis (52 percent) and Lions sixth-rounder John Penisini (51 percent).
Six more logged between 25 percent and 49 percent playing time: Cowboys third-rounder Neville Gallimore (38 percent); Browns third-rounder Jordan Elliott (29 percent); Jaguars third-rounder DaVon Hamilton (36 percent); Cardinals fourth-rounder Leki Fotu (26 percent); Panthers sixth-rounder Bravvion Roy (40 percent) and Jaguars’ free-agent signing Doug Costin (41 percent).
If it comes down to decision-makers holding their noses and throwing a dart this year, well, so be it.
“Pick the trait you want, then pick that guy,” an AFC decision-maker said. “None of them are everything you want.”
A total of 18 personnel people were asked to come up with five names in order of the best defensive linemen in the draft. A first-place vote was worth five points, a second was worth four and so on. They hemmed and hawed, bobbed and weaved.
“If some of these guys are being talked about as being top-five interior (defensive) linemen in a draft, you’ve got to know right there it’s a bad draft,” said one scout.
But every day as part of their jobs, personnel guys rank people. And so, with resignation, they completed the poll.
Barmore topped the list with 12 first-place votes and 81 total points. Seven others finished in double figures, including Levi Onwuzurike (61, two firsts), Dayo Odeyingbo (25, three firsts), Osa Odighizuwa (22), Jay Tufele (16), Tyler Shelvin (16), Milton Williams (16, one first) and Daviyon Nixon (11).
Other vote-getters included Alim McNeill (eight), Marvin Wilson (five), Tommy Togiai (three), Marlon Tuipulotu (three), Bobby Brown III (one), Marquiss Spencer (one) and Khyiris Tonga (one).
“Most of the interior guys this year are stay-at-home types,” an AFC executive said. “Except Barmore, Nixon perhaps and Levi.”
Ranking the defensive linemen
1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (6-foot-4, 310 pounds, no 40 time, Round 1): He’ll likely become the Crimson Tide’s eighth defensive lineman drafted in the top two rounds since 2016. The others were Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis.
“Barmore isn’t Quinnen — or Marcell (Dareus, third pick in 2011 draft)-level good,” said one scout. “Better physical gifts than Jonathan Allen, but not close to as good a technician or as an overall player. He’s more gifted than Dalvin Tomlinson. Barmore resides in that Jarran Reed/A’Shawn Robinson/Raekwon Davis group that’s a notch below those big three from the ‘Bama tree.
“I saw Barmore the same way people looked at Davis as a sophomore when he put up (8½) sacks. Then he had two off years after that.”
The Philadelphia native redshirted in 2018, started one game in ’19 and started five of 12 games in ’20, notching eight sacks.
“It depends when you watched him,” a second scout said. “He was just a guy at the beginning of the season compared to what you watched the last three games. That’s what everybody’s digging on. Why all of a sudden did the light go on? He seems to play with more energy as a pass rusher than he does playing against the run.”
Finished with 63 tackles, 15½ for loss, and recorded 10 sacks.
“Somebody will probably reach on him because there aren’t any of these guys,” a third scout said. “I think you’re going to take some lumps with him. He doesn’t have a ton of experience. He’s not a finished product. Best thing he does is rush inside.”
Several teams expressed concerns about what they say is his resistance to coaching and structure at Alabama.
“He’s benefiting from the guys who played there,” said a fourth scout. “He’s just a big (guy) who doesn’t make plays. At ‘Bama, they rotate guys like 80/20 or 70/30. This guy, it’s like 50/50, where he’s in and out of the game.”
2. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (6-foot-3, 290, 4.87, Round 1 or 2): Miscast playing in the ‘A’ gaps in the Huskies’ 3-4 defense.
“He’s a movement-oriented guy who plays (hard),” said one scout. “I’m not sure he isn’t a better player than Barmore. He’s the guy I’m most excited about.”
Redshirted in 2016, subbed in ’17, started four games in ’18, started 12 games in ’19 and opted out in ’20.
“Undersized guy who tries to rely on being an athlete and plays in gaps,” said another scout. “But he’s not that talented to be that kind of guy. He had like two sacks in the Pac-12 for a guy who’s supposed to be a pass rusher.”
Finished with 95 tackles (16 for loss) and seven sacks.
“I have a bias against undersized guys that don’t play big at the point of attack,” a third scout said. “It’s such a big man’s game.”
Managed 29 reps on the bench press.
“(I) like him,” a fourth scout said. “He gets off the ball. He is an attacking-style player. He is a leader. He works hard. He had an Achilles injury in high school, but he’s been able to manage through that. Got good closing speed. He can pressure the quarterback from all different angles. Probably like Tyrone Crawford.”
Helped his high school team in Allen, Texas, win three state titles. Showed up at the Senior Bowl, practiced one day, remained in Mobile (Ala.) all week but didn’t practice again.
“It was disappointing,” a fifth scout said of his brief stint in Mobile. “Just expected more.”
3. Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt (6-foot-5, 285, no 40, Round 2 or 3): Compared by one evaluator to Jason Pierre-Paul.
“He’s super talented,” said another scout. “His production doesn’t match his talent. He needs a lot of work. He can move. Plays hard. He’s tough. They didn’t do him any favors by playing mostly a three-man front. He wasn’t on the edge much. He’s really matured into a guy you like. Then he tore his Achilles.”
The injury occurred in mid-January during a workout.
“I love him, but he’s going to drop,” a third scout said. “He’s out of the top 100. Fourth round.”
The Irving, Texas, native started 29 of 44 games, finishing with 125 tackles (31 for loss) and 12 sacks.
“He’s way better than Barmore,” said a fourth scout. “He would have been No. 1 without the injury.”
Led the group in arm length (35¼ inches).
“I think he’s a 3-4 (defensive end),” said a fifth scout. “He’s similar to (Carlos) Basham. He plays really hard. He’s an awkward type athlete. It’s like he’s always falling down, but he always keeps coming, keeps coming. He fights.”
4. Osa Odighizuwa, UCLA (6-foot-1½, 282, no 40, Round 3): Redshirted in 2016 before starting 27 of 43 games from 2017 through ’20.
“Really stout,” said one scout. “They could not block this guy at the Senior Bowl. His brother (Owa) played in the league.”
The Giants drafted Owa (6-foot-3½, 264, 4.59) in the third round in 2015. He played 18 games without a start, didn’t register a sack and was out of football after July 2018.
“(Osa) doesn’t have a great history of production, but he did look good at the Senior Bowl,” the scout continued. “He was more of a power guy than a movement guy there, but he could be a 1-technique for some (teams). He’s not a 330-pound slug nose, yet he wins with power.”
Finished with 120 tackles (27½ for loss) and 11½ sacks.
“He’s small, but he plays really hard,” said a second scout. “He’s a really good athlete. They beat him up, but he keeps fighting. He’s got to be on the move. (UCLA did) a lot of shifting with him, which he has to do. You just can’t have him ever be a front-line guy. You’d love him as a backup because he plays so hard and he’s athletic. You just question how big he can get.”
Three-time state wrestling champion from Portland, Ore.
5. Jay Tufele, USC (6-foot-2, 305, 5.01, Round 3): From Salt Lake City, Tufele redshirted in 2017, started 18 of 25 games in 2018 and ’19 and opted out in ’20.
“He’s legit,” one scout said. “He’s got size and strength to hold the point. Two-down player. Stays square. He’ll be your fourth defensive tackle. Needs to work on pass rush. The more you watch, the more you like this guy and admire how he plays. He’s good stopping the run.”
Played 3-technique, but some teams feel he can also handle the 1-technique.
“With this list, it wouldn’t surprise me if he went in the third round,” said a second scout. “He ran well and benched 30 (reps).”
Finished with 65 tackles (11 for loss) and 7½ sacks.
“Inconsistent guy,” a third scout said. “He flashes. Jumps out of gaps. Lacks body control. Gets moved around a lot.”
6. Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (6-foot-3, 284, 4.67, Round 3): Put on one of the best shows on the pro-day circuit, stunning assembled scouts in Ruston, La., with a scalding 40, a 38½-inch vertical jump, a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump, a 4.33 short shuttle and a 6.96 3-cone. All five marks were No. 1 at the position.
“That was absurd,” said one scout. “Unbelievable. But … he plays like a workout warrior, not a football player. Limited instincts and block recognition. Gets washed (out) at the point of attack. Has to be on the move. Limited pass-rush plan and moves.”
Lightly recruited out of Crowley, Texas. Redshirted in 2017, hardly played in ’18 and started all 23 games the past two years.
“Carolina took Vernon Butler from there late in the first round (in 2016), and he never did anything,” said a second scout. “This kid is better than Butler. He’s got everything you’re looking for, but he doesn’t play hard. He flashes, then he takes three or four plays off. But (after) the (pro-day) workout, somebody’s got to grab him in the second.”
Has the shortest arms (31½) among the top 12 at the position.
“We don’t know where to put him,” a third scout said. “He’s kind of an end, a 5-technique. He’s a great kid, and if he’s willing to work at it, he has a lot of traits to potentially develop. He could be the surprise of this class.”
Finished with 106 tackles (19 for loss) and 10 sacks.
“Of this crew, (it) wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in the third,” a fourth scout said.
7. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (6-foot-2, 350, 5.41, Round 3 through 6): Opted out in 2020, leaving him with a meager 21-game, 14-start career.
“He’s the wild card just because nobody knows what he’s going to do,” said one scout. “Someone has a chance to get a good player later in the draft. He looked OK (at pro day). Pro days aren’t really for him. It’s not his strength.”
Started at the nose during LSU’s FBS championship run in 2019.
“You’ll have to have some real conversations about him. I would take him,” said a second scout. “He plays at 345, 350. Comes in heavier during the offseason. His weight is his biggest issue.”
After redshirting in 2017 to become academically eligible, the Lafayette, La., native was limited to six games in ’18 due to discipline and weight issues. Two teams said they removed him from consideration because of those reasons.
Finished with 48 tackles (4½ for loss) and 1½ sacks.
“He is a classic 3-4 base nose tackle,” a fourth scout said.
8. Alim McNeill, North Carolina State (6-foot-2, 317, 4.99, Round 3 or 4): Third-year junior.
“He can hold point,” said one scout. “He’s strong. He’ll start in the league.”
Started at tight end, running back and linebacker as a prep in Raleigh, N.C.
“He’s kind of interesting,” said a second scout. “Former running back, and he is athletic. He’s got good feet and is a good bender. He shows you he can play hard, but he kind of runs out of gas. Weight and conditioning are issues.”
Declared a year early. Started 18 of 35 games at nose tackle in a base three-man front, finishing with 78 tackles (17½ for loss) and 10 sacks.
“He’s like Javon Hargrave,” said a third scout. “He’s a pure nose tackle. He’s short, but he’s thick and he’s athletic.”
9. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (6-foot-3, 313, 4.89, Round 3 through 6): Executives from three teams said he had been removed from their draft boards because of off-field issues. Four other teams indicated they had modest to major concerns.
Nixon played one season at a junior college, redshirted at Iowa in 2018, played extensively in a rotation in ’19 and started at defensive tackle in ’20. He earned unanimous all-America honors and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
“He’s got long arms (35⅛),” a second scout said. “I thought he flashed disruption. I just thought he was inconsistent. He uses his length well at times to shed. He has strength to take on the double-team. The instincts were average; he fell for some fakes.”
Finished with 74 tackles (19 for loss) and 8½ sacks.
10. Marlon Tuipulotu, USC (6-foot-2, 317, 5.37, Round 3 or 4): Backed up in 2017 before starting at nose tackle from 2018 through ’20.
“True ’50’ front nose tackle,” said one scout. “He’s a big, strong, tough guy who brings attitude to your (defensive) line room. I just don’t see a guy that can generate sacks.”
Played 33 games, starting 29. Finished with 104 tackles (15 for loss) and 8½ sacks.
“At the Senior Bowl, he was on the ground a lot,” another scout said. “He did a lot of dancing at the line. Didn’t really show much push.”
Born in New Zealand, he grew up in Gardena, Calif., before spending his high school years in Independence, Ore., where he was a state wrestling champ as a senior.
“Plays hard, has zero pass rush,” a third scout said. “Straight-up nose tackle.”
11. Marvin Wilson, Florida State (6-foot-3½, 310, 5.09, Round 4): Joined the Seminoles as the No. 1-ranked player in Texas (Houston), but never played to those expectations.
“He’s not as good as Eddie Goldman or Tim Jernigan coming out,” said one scout. “He’s had weight problems in the past. He’s a top-heavy kind of guy. Inconsistent stamina. He is an alpha dog, but he’s very limited as a rusher and he will wear down early.”
Missed seven games in 2019 and ’20 with thumb and leg injuries. Had a poor week at the Senior Bowl.
“Look, you see flashes,” a second scout said. “He does have ability. But he’s a big guy who can’t rush. He’s just a first- and second-down guy.”
Said a third scout: “He is stiff. He’s really strong. He played hard — really hard. He has some leadership. He looked like a backup 3-4 nose.”
12. Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M (6-foot-4, 321, 5.04, Round 4): Made a strong impression at his pro day in the vertical jump (33), broad jump (9-5) and the 40. His hands (10½) were the largest of the top 15 defensive tackles.
“He’s the most talented of the nose tackles,” said one scout. “Mega-talented. He can play nose and sub in. Nothing major, but he’s got some maturity things he’s got to improve on.”
“He does have some raw ability, but you’ve really got to work to see it,” said a second scout.
Third-year junior from Arlington, Texas. Started 19 of 35 games, finishing with 57 tackles (10½ for loss) and six sacks.
13. Tommy Togiai, Ohio State (6-foot-1½, 296, 5.00, Round 4 or 5): Declared a year early after backing up in 26 games in 2018 and ’19 and starting seven games at nose tackle in ’20.
“His problem is he looks like a 3-technique, but he plays like a 1-technique,” said one scout. “He’s powerful and has some straight-line speed. He is not a pass rusher at all. Decent run player. He’s an undersized first- and second-down nose. Great kid. Plays (hard). They tried to get him to stay in school. He is really strong, but he’s barely 300 pounds.”
Showed his power with 40 reps on the bench, equaling the high for the position.
“He plays really hard, but he’s undersized,” said a second scout. “Some of these undersized guys are going to get mashed inside at this level.”
The Pocatello, Idaho, native finished with 49 tackles (8½ for loss) and three sacks.
14. Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (6-foot-1½, 301, 5.43, Round 4 or 5): Played at about 285-290 in 2019 when he registered 10½ sacks. Opted out of 2020, then showed up weighing 301 at pro day and ran a subpar 40. On that same day, he benched 40 times.
From Washington, D.C., he redshirted in 2017. Played 13 games (one start) in 2018 before starting all 13 games in ’19.
“Interesting guy,” said one scout. “He has some pass-rush ability. But (in 2019), you have to remember they had two edge guys who put pressure on the quarterback. He had 10½ sacks, but they were mostly cleanup sacks. When the guy moved up in the pocket, he splattered him.”
Finished with 57 tackles (13½ for loss) and 11 sacks.
“He’s got good short-area quickness,” said a second scout. “Problem is, he’s not a very big man and he can’t run. Best thing he does is inside rush. Pretty good rotational guy.”
15. Khyiris Tonga, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 325, 5.09, Round 5): Hindered by his arm length (31 inches), shortest of the top 20 defensive tackles.
“Excellent two-gapper,” said one scout. “His problem right now is he tries to kill people. Instead of just reacting off the blocks, he plays through the block and tries to put the guy on his tail. He might be the best of the nose tackles. He plays hard. Somebody just has to teach him that you just have to tackle the guy, not kill the guy.”
Managed 35 reps on the bench. Ran well for his size. A three-year starter, the West Valley, Utah, native finished with 130 tackles (15 for loss) and 7½ sacks.
Other top defensive linemen: Ta’Quon Graham, Texas; Chauncey Golston, Iowa; Tedarrell Slaton, Florida; Marquiss Spencer, Mississippi State; Jonathan Marshall, Arkansas; Kenny Randall, Charleston; Darius Stills, West Virginia; Naquon Jones, Michigan State.
Unsung hero
Chauncey Golston, Iowa: Played base left end in the Hawkeyes’ 4-3 defense, but his main attraction to NFL teams would be as an inside pass rusher on third down. Produced 12 sacks in four seasons, stood out at the Senior Bowl and had a strong pro day. Very long arms (34¾), biggest hands (10⅞) at the position and a 4.82 40 time. Rushed effectively with speed and power at the Senior Bowl.
Scouts’ nightmare
Marquiss Spencer, Mississippi State: He has good size (6-foot-3½, 301) and exceptional speed (4.87). Played portions of five seasons under multiple coaches and in multiple schemes. Bounced back from a torn ACL in 2018 to start 22 games the past two years. If a GM likes Spencer, he could make every excuse in the world for him because he had so little continuity in Starkville, Miss.
Scout to remember
Don Klosterman: He played quarterback in the NFL and CFL. He scouted and directed a flock of teams in the AFL. He served successfully as an NFL general manager with the Baltimore Colts and Los Angeles Rams. As GM of the USFL Los Angeles Express in 1984 he signed Steve Young. His scouting pals knew him as the “Duke of Del Rey” for his sartorial splendor. A native of LeMars, Iowa, he was the 12th of 15 children. In 1957, his football career with the Calgary Stampeders ended due to a skiing accident in Banff, Alberta, that required eight operations. Klosterman died in 2000 not long after suffering a heart attack. He was 70.
Quote to note
AFC executive: “A lot of colleges don’t bulk people up anymore. They keep them in that 275- to 280-pound range and leave them on the edge.”
Bob McGinn Apr 25, 2021
This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.
How weak is the crop of defensive linemen in this week’s NFL Draft?
“Probably the (weakest) group of interior (defensive) linemen in several decades,” said an NFL decision-maker with 20-plus years of carrying a stopwatch. “With 1-techniques, I don’t even know who people would be talking about. There aren’t any.”
Another summed it up this way: It’s a “light board.”
Alabama’s Christian Barmore, a third-year sophomore, is expected to be the first big man taken, but that status is regarded as more by default.
“Barmore came out in the right draft, that’s for sure,” one scout said.
No position over the years other than maybe quarterback has lent itself to over-drafting than the defensive line. There’s a limited supply of 300-pound men with the strength to stand their ground against even beefier blockers, the skill and quickness to slip past blockers and pressure the passer and the stamina to play all-out on every play.
Eight years ago, when just two defensive linemen went in the first round, a personnel evaluator said before the draft, “There’s only two 5-techniques that I like, and there aren’t any noses. Some of these guys are going to get drafted too high because there’s nobody available.”
Not every team could fill the never-ending hunt for reinforcements up front in free agency this spring. One team left its winter meetings with fewer than 10 defensive linemen graded as draftable; even in that weak class of 2014, a total of 23 defensive linemen ended up being drafted.
A review of the defensive linemen in the 2014 draft suggests that the apprehension among clubs this year certainly is warranted.
The 2014 class produced Aaron Donald, who went No. 13 to the Rams and already ranks as one of the all-time greats. Maybe there’s an Aaron Donald in this year’s bunch. More than likely, there isn’t.
The only other inside player in that first round, Dominique Easley, hung around for five years but didn’t do much.
Other than Donald, just three defensive linemen from the 2014 class have started 50 games: DaQuan Jones (fourth round), previously with the Titans and now with the Panthers, has 93 starts; Pittsburgh’s Stephon Tuitt (second round) has 79; and Shamar Stephen (seventh round), formerly with the Vikings and now with the Broncos, has 65.
Others that have logged seven seasons include Timmy Jernigan (second round), Justin Ellis (fourth round), Brent Urban (fourth round) and Daniel McCullers (final pick in the sixth round).
Besides Easley (Patriots, No. 29), the parade of busts included Ra’Shede Hageman (Falcons, No. 37), Ego Ferguson (Bears, No. 51), Jay Bromley (Giants, No. 74) and Khyri Thornton (Packers, No. 85).
After a bumper crop of defensive linemen entered the league in 2019, the storm warnings were up again in 2020. Just two of them, the Panthers’ Derrick Brown and the 49ers’ Javon Kinlaw, were selected in the first round of what was regarded as a thin class.
“At some point, you’ve got to take a shot on these guys,” one personnel executive said not long before that draft. “These dudes don’t grow on trees.”
With one season in the books, how does that group look now? It’s too early to tell, of course, but nobody had more than two sacks (Brown had two), and no one had more than four tackles for loss other than Brown, the seventh pick overall who had eight. He and Kinlaw, the No. 14 choice, made the All-Rookie Team.
Besides the first-round picks, just two others have reached 50 percent playing time: Dolphins second-rounder Raekwon Davis (52 percent) and Lions sixth-rounder John Penisini (51 percent).
Six more logged between 25 percent and 49 percent playing time: Cowboys third-rounder Neville Gallimore (38 percent); Browns third-rounder Jordan Elliott (29 percent); Jaguars third-rounder DaVon Hamilton (36 percent); Cardinals fourth-rounder Leki Fotu (26 percent); Panthers sixth-rounder Bravvion Roy (40 percent) and Jaguars’ free-agent signing Doug Costin (41 percent).
If it comes down to decision-makers holding their noses and throwing a dart this year, well, so be it.
“Pick the trait you want, then pick that guy,” an AFC decision-maker said. “None of them are everything you want.”
A total of 18 personnel people were asked to come up with five names in order of the best defensive linemen in the draft. A first-place vote was worth five points, a second was worth four and so on. They hemmed and hawed, bobbed and weaved.
“If some of these guys are being talked about as being top-five interior (defensive) linemen in a draft, you’ve got to know right there it’s a bad draft,” said one scout.
But every day as part of their jobs, personnel guys rank people. And so, with resignation, they completed the poll.
Barmore topped the list with 12 first-place votes and 81 total points. Seven others finished in double figures, including Levi Onwuzurike (61, two firsts), Dayo Odeyingbo (25, three firsts), Osa Odighizuwa (22), Jay Tufele (16), Tyler Shelvin (16), Milton Williams (16, one first) and Daviyon Nixon (11).
Other vote-getters included Alim McNeill (eight), Marvin Wilson (five), Tommy Togiai (three), Marlon Tuipulotu (three), Bobby Brown III (one), Marquiss Spencer (one) and Khyiris Tonga (one).
“Most of the interior guys this year are stay-at-home types,” an AFC executive said. “Except Barmore, Nixon perhaps and Levi.”
Ranking the defensive linemen
1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (6-foot-4, 310 pounds, no 40 time, Round 1): He’ll likely become the Crimson Tide’s eighth defensive lineman drafted in the top two rounds since 2016. The others were Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis.
“Barmore isn’t Quinnen — or Marcell (Dareus, third pick in 2011 draft)-level good,” said one scout. “Better physical gifts than Jonathan Allen, but not close to as good a technician or as an overall player. He’s more gifted than Dalvin Tomlinson. Barmore resides in that Jarran Reed/A’Shawn Robinson/Raekwon Davis group that’s a notch below those big three from the ‘Bama tree.
“I saw Barmore the same way people looked at Davis as a sophomore when he put up (8½) sacks. Then he had two off years after that.”
The Philadelphia native redshirted in 2018, started one game in ’19 and started five of 12 games in ’20, notching eight sacks.
“It depends when you watched him,” a second scout said. “He was just a guy at the beginning of the season compared to what you watched the last three games. That’s what everybody’s digging on. Why all of a sudden did the light go on? He seems to play with more energy as a pass rusher than he does playing against the run.”
Finished with 63 tackles, 15½ for loss, and recorded 10 sacks.
“Somebody will probably reach on him because there aren’t any of these guys,” a third scout said. “I think you’re going to take some lumps with him. He doesn’t have a ton of experience. He’s not a finished product. Best thing he does is rush inside.”
Several teams expressed concerns about what they say is his resistance to coaching and structure at Alabama.
“He’s benefiting from the guys who played there,” said a fourth scout. “He’s just a big (guy) who doesn’t make plays. At ‘Bama, they rotate guys like 80/20 or 70/30. This guy, it’s like 50/50, where he’s in and out of the game.”
2. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (6-foot-3, 290, 4.87, Round 1 or 2): Miscast playing in the ‘A’ gaps in the Huskies’ 3-4 defense.
“He’s a movement-oriented guy who plays (hard),” said one scout. “I’m not sure he isn’t a better player than Barmore. He’s the guy I’m most excited about.”
Redshirted in 2016, subbed in ’17, started four games in ’18, started 12 games in ’19 and opted out in ’20.
“Undersized guy who tries to rely on being an athlete and plays in gaps,” said another scout. “But he’s not that talented to be that kind of guy. He had like two sacks in the Pac-12 for a guy who’s supposed to be a pass rusher.”
Finished with 95 tackles (16 for loss) and seven sacks.
“I have a bias against undersized guys that don’t play big at the point of attack,” a third scout said. “It’s such a big man’s game.”
Managed 29 reps on the bench press.
“(I) like him,” a fourth scout said. “He gets off the ball. He is an attacking-style player. He is a leader. He works hard. He had an Achilles injury in high school, but he’s been able to manage through that. Got good closing speed. He can pressure the quarterback from all different angles. Probably like Tyrone Crawford.”
Helped his high school team in Allen, Texas, win three state titles. Showed up at the Senior Bowl, practiced one day, remained in Mobile (Ala.) all week but didn’t practice again.
“It was disappointing,” a fifth scout said of his brief stint in Mobile. “Just expected more.”
3. Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt (6-foot-5, 285, no 40, Round 2 or 3): Compared by one evaluator to Jason Pierre-Paul.
“He’s super talented,” said another scout. “His production doesn’t match his talent. He needs a lot of work. He can move. Plays hard. He’s tough. They didn’t do him any favors by playing mostly a three-man front. He wasn’t on the edge much. He’s really matured into a guy you like. Then he tore his Achilles.”
The injury occurred in mid-January during a workout.
“I love him, but he’s going to drop,” a third scout said. “He’s out of the top 100. Fourth round.”
The Irving, Texas, native started 29 of 44 games, finishing with 125 tackles (31 for loss) and 12 sacks.
“He’s way better than Barmore,” said a fourth scout. “He would have been No. 1 without the injury.”
Led the group in arm length (35¼ inches).
“I think he’s a 3-4 (defensive end),” said a fifth scout. “He’s similar to (Carlos) Basham. He plays really hard. He’s an awkward type athlete. It’s like he’s always falling down, but he always keeps coming, keeps coming. He fights.”
4. Osa Odighizuwa, UCLA (6-foot-1½, 282, no 40, Round 3): Redshirted in 2016 before starting 27 of 43 games from 2017 through ’20.
“Really stout,” said one scout. “They could not block this guy at the Senior Bowl. His brother (Owa) played in the league.”
The Giants drafted Owa (6-foot-3½, 264, 4.59) in the third round in 2015. He played 18 games without a start, didn’t register a sack and was out of football after July 2018.
“(Osa) doesn’t have a great history of production, but he did look good at the Senior Bowl,” the scout continued. “He was more of a power guy than a movement guy there, but he could be a 1-technique for some (teams). He’s not a 330-pound slug nose, yet he wins with power.”
Finished with 120 tackles (27½ for loss) and 11½ sacks.
“He’s small, but he plays really hard,” said a second scout. “He’s a really good athlete. They beat him up, but he keeps fighting. He’s got to be on the move. (UCLA did) a lot of shifting with him, which he has to do. You just can’t have him ever be a front-line guy. You’d love him as a backup because he plays so hard and he’s athletic. You just question how big he can get.”
Three-time state wrestling champion from Portland, Ore.
5. Jay Tufele, USC (6-foot-2, 305, 5.01, Round 3): From Salt Lake City, Tufele redshirted in 2017, started 18 of 25 games in 2018 and ’19 and opted out in ’20.
“He’s legit,” one scout said. “He’s got size and strength to hold the point. Two-down player. Stays square. He’ll be your fourth defensive tackle. Needs to work on pass rush. The more you watch, the more you like this guy and admire how he plays. He’s good stopping the run.”
Played 3-technique, but some teams feel he can also handle the 1-technique.
“With this list, it wouldn’t surprise me if he went in the third round,” said a second scout. “He ran well and benched 30 (reps).”
Finished with 65 tackles (11 for loss) and 7½ sacks.
“Inconsistent guy,” a third scout said. “He flashes. Jumps out of gaps. Lacks body control. Gets moved around a lot.”
6. Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (6-foot-3, 284, 4.67, Round 3): Put on one of the best shows on the pro-day circuit, stunning assembled scouts in Ruston, La., with a scalding 40, a 38½-inch vertical jump, a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump, a 4.33 short shuttle and a 6.96 3-cone. All five marks were No. 1 at the position.
“That was absurd,” said one scout. “Unbelievable. But … he plays like a workout warrior, not a football player. Limited instincts and block recognition. Gets washed (out) at the point of attack. Has to be on the move. Limited pass-rush plan and moves.”
Lightly recruited out of Crowley, Texas. Redshirted in 2017, hardly played in ’18 and started all 23 games the past two years.
“Carolina took Vernon Butler from there late in the first round (in 2016), and he never did anything,” said a second scout. “This kid is better than Butler. He’s got everything you’re looking for, but he doesn’t play hard. He flashes, then he takes three or four plays off. But (after) the (pro-day) workout, somebody’s got to grab him in the second.”
Has the shortest arms (31½) among the top 12 at the position.
“We don’t know where to put him,” a third scout said. “He’s kind of an end, a 5-technique. He’s a great kid, and if he’s willing to work at it, he has a lot of traits to potentially develop. He could be the surprise of this class.”
Finished with 106 tackles (19 for loss) and 10 sacks.
“Of this crew, (it) wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in the third,” a fourth scout said.
7. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (6-foot-2, 350, 5.41, Round 3 through 6): Opted out in 2020, leaving him with a meager 21-game, 14-start career.
“He’s the wild card just because nobody knows what he’s going to do,” said one scout. “Someone has a chance to get a good player later in the draft. He looked OK (at pro day). Pro days aren’t really for him. It’s not his strength.”
Started at the nose during LSU’s FBS championship run in 2019.
“You’ll have to have some real conversations about him. I would take him,” said a second scout. “He plays at 345, 350. Comes in heavier during the offseason. His weight is his biggest issue.”
After redshirting in 2017 to become academically eligible, the Lafayette, La., native was limited to six games in ’18 due to discipline and weight issues. Two teams said they removed him from consideration because of those reasons.
Finished with 48 tackles (4½ for loss) and 1½ sacks.
“He is a classic 3-4 base nose tackle,” a fourth scout said.
8. Alim McNeill, North Carolina State (6-foot-2, 317, 4.99, Round 3 or 4): Third-year junior.
“He can hold point,” said one scout. “He’s strong. He’ll start in the league.”
Started at tight end, running back and linebacker as a prep in Raleigh, N.C.
“He’s kind of interesting,” said a second scout. “Former running back, and he is athletic. He’s got good feet and is a good bender. He shows you he can play hard, but he kind of runs out of gas. Weight and conditioning are issues.”
Declared a year early. Started 18 of 35 games at nose tackle in a base three-man front, finishing with 78 tackles (17½ for loss) and 10 sacks.
“He’s like Javon Hargrave,” said a third scout. “He’s a pure nose tackle. He’s short, but he’s thick and he’s athletic.”
9. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (6-foot-3, 313, 4.89, Round 3 through 6): Executives from three teams said he had been removed from their draft boards because of off-field issues. Four other teams indicated they had modest to major concerns.
Nixon played one season at a junior college, redshirted at Iowa in 2018, played extensively in a rotation in ’19 and started at defensive tackle in ’20. He earned unanimous all-America honors and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
“He’s got long arms (35⅛),” a second scout said. “I thought he flashed disruption. I just thought he was inconsistent. He uses his length well at times to shed. He has strength to take on the double-team. The instincts were average; he fell for some fakes.”
Finished with 74 tackles (19 for loss) and 8½ sacks.
10. Marlon Tuipulotu, USC (6-foot-2, 317, 5.37, Round 3 or 4): Backed up in 2017 before starting at nose tackle from 2018 through ’20.
“True ’50’ front nose tackle,” said one scout. “He’s a big, strong, tough guy who brings attitude to your (defensive) line room. I just don’t see a guy that can generate sacks.”
Played 33 games, starting 29. Finished with 104 tackles (15 for loss) and 8½ sacks.
“At the Senior Bowl, he was on the ground a lot,” another scout said. “He did a lot of dancing at the line. Didn’t really show much push.”
Born in New Zealand, he grew up in Gardena, Calif., before spending his high school years in Independence, Ore., where he was a state wrestling champ as a senior.
“Plays hard, has zero pass rush,” a third scout said. “Straight-up nose tackle.”
11. Marvin Wilson, Florida State (6-foot-3½, 310, 5.09, Round 4): Joined the Seminoles as the No. 1-ranked player in Texas (Houston), but never played to those expectations.
“He’s not as good as Eddie Goldman or Tim Jernigan coming out,” said one scout. “He’s had weight problems in the past. He’s a top-heavy kind of guy. Inconsistent stamina. He is an alpha dog, but he’s very limited as a rusher and he will wear down early.”
Missed seven games in 2019 and ’20 with thumb and leg injuries. Had a poor week at the Senior Bowl.
“Look, you see flashes,” a second scout said. “He does have ability. But he’s a big guy who can’t rush. He’s just a first- and second-down guy.”
Said a third scout: “He is stiff. He’s really strong. He played hard — really hard. He has some leadership. He looked like a backup 3-4 nose.”
12. Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M (6-foot-4, 321, 5.04, Round 4): Made a strong impression at his pro day in the vertical jump (33), broad jump (9-5) and the 40. His hands (10½) were the largest of the top 15 defensive tackles.
“He’s the most talented of the nose tackles,” said one scout. “Mega-talented. He can play nose and sub in. Nothing major, but he’s got some maturity things he’s got to improve on.”
“He does have some raw ability, but you’ve really got to work to see it,” said a second scout.
Third-year junior from Arlington, Texas. Started 19 of 35 games, finishing with 57 tackles (10½ for loss) and six sacks.
13. Tommy Togiai, Ohio State (6-foot-1½, 296, 5.00, Round 4 or 5): Declared a year early after backing up in 26 games in 2018 and ’19 and starting seven games at nose tackle in ’20.
“His problem is he looks like a 3-technique, but he plays like a 1-technique,” said one scout. “He’s powerful and has some straight-line speed. He is not a pass rusher at all. Decent run player. He’s an undersized first- and second-down nose. Great kid. Plays (hard). They tried to get him to stay in school. He is really strong, but he’s barely 300 pounds.”
Showed his power with 40 reps on the bench, equaling the high for the position.
“He plays really hard, but he’s undersized,” said a second scout. “Some of these undersized guys are going to get mashed inside at this level.”
The Pocatello, Idaho, native finished with 49 tackles (8½ for loss) and three sacks.
14. Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (6-foot-1½, 301, 5.43, Round 4 or 5): Played at about 285-290 in 2019 when he registered 10½ sacks. Opted out of 2020, then showed up weighing 301 at pro day and ran a subpar 40. On that same day, he benched 40 times.
From Washington, D.C., he redshirted in 2017. Played 13 games (one start) in 2018 before starting all 13 games in ’19.
“Interesting guy,” said one scout. “He has some pass-rush ability. But (in 2019), you have to remember they had two edge guys who put pressure on the quarterback. He had 10½ sacks, but they were mostly cleanup sacks. When the guy moved up in the pocket, he splattered him.”
Finished with 57 tackles (13½ for loss) and 11 sacks.
“He’s got good short-area quickness,” said a second scout. “Problem is, he’s not a very big man and he can’t run. Best thing he does is inside rush. Pretty good rotational guy.”
15. Khyiris Tonga, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 325, 5.09, Round 5): Hindered by his arm length (31 inches), shortest of the top 20 defensive tackles.
“Excellent two-gapper,” said one scout. “His problem right now is he tries to kill people. Instead of just reacting off the blocks, he plays through the block and tries to put the guy on his tail. He might be the best of the nose tackles. He plays hard. Somebody just has to teach him that you just have to tackle the guy, not kill the guy.”
Managed 35 reps on the bench. Ran well for his size. A three-year starter, the West Valley, Utah, native finished with 130 tackles (15 for loss) and 7½ sacks.
Other top defensive linemen: Ta’Quon Graham, Texas; Chauncey Golston, Iowa; Tedarrell Slaton, Florida; Marquiss Spencer, Mississippi State; Jonathan Marshall, Arkansas; Kenny Randall, Charleston; Darius Stills, West Virginia; Naquon Jones, Michigan State.
Unsung hero
Chauncey Golston, Iowa: Played base left end in the Hawkeyes’ 4-3 defense, but his main attraction to NFL teams would be as an inside pass rusher on third down. Produced 12 sacks in four seasons, stood out at the Senior Bowl and had a strong pro day. Very long arms (34¾), biggest hands (10⅞) at the position and a 4.82 40 time. Rushed effectively with speed and power at the Senior Bowl.
Scouts’ nightmare
Marquiss Spencer, Mississippi State: He has good size (6-foot-3½, 301) and exceptional speed (4.87). Played portions of five seasons under multiple coaches and in multiple schemes. Bounced back from a torn ACL in 2018 to start 22 games the past two years. If a GM likes Spencer, he could make every excuse in the world for him because he had so little continuity in Starkville, Miss.
Scout to remember
Don Klosterman: He played quarterback in the NFL and CFL. He scouted and directed a flock of teams in the AFL. He served successfully as an NFL general manager with the Baltimore Colts and Los Angeles Rams. As GM of the USFL Los Angeles Express in 1984 he signed Steve Young. His scouting pals knew him as the “Duke of Del Rey” for his sartorial splendor. A native of LeMars, Iowa, he was the 12th of 15 children. In 1957, his football career with the Calgary Stampeders ended due to a skiing accident in Banff, Alberta, that required eight operations. Klosterman died in 2000 not long after suffering a heart attack. He was 70.
Quote to note
AFC executive: “A lot of colleges don’t bulk people up anymore. They keep them in that 275- to 280-pound range and leave them on the edge.”
Simpleton
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The edge rusher depth is actually really solid, I'd feel great about getting a guy like Ossai or Basham in the 2nd or Payton Turner or Patrick Jones in the 3rd or even 4th. There is a lot of uncertainty at the top with Phillips and Rousseau but the depth is strong all the way down into early day 3.
Simpleton
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I never wrote Detroit off for a QB, whether it's them taking one or trading down with someone wanting to get in front of Carolina. If Mac Jones goes 3 it really opens things up since it seems the general consensus around the league is in support of Fields/Lance.
If the "5th" QB goes off the board before those two it'll drive up demand/interest in moving up and someone like Sewell could easily slip through the cracks.
I wouldn't be shocked if we saw something like:
1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Jones
4. Pitts
5. Chase
6. Waddle/Smith
7. QB
8. QB
9. Parsons/Surtain
It's not likely but it's definitely within the realm of possibility.
Genghis Khan
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Props!
data
Forbes #1
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Yesterday, I prayed for your asshole. Not many, if any, of your other friends did so.
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You're weird, but.... thanks?
NoDak
Hotlinking' sonofabitch
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It’s scary that I actually believe this.
shoop
Semi-contributing member
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bbgun
please don't "dur" me
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no, it was like Tuesday and Wednesday
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Yeah he isn't off my board but I wouldn't touch him in the first or possibly the second. But at some point the talent is worth the risk.
Genghis Khan
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No way I'd take him before the 5th and maybe not even then. Shame.
Simpleton
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Yea I said I'd consider him with our comp 3rd, which is basically a 4th, ultimately I don't think I'd realistically take him until the 4th at the earliest and that's depending on the board.
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