The Cowboys’ first three rounds of the NFL Draft: Best and worst-case scenarios
By Jon Machota 36m ago
What’s the worst that can happen?
We’re less than three weeks from the
NFL Draft so we’re looking to answer that question from a
Cowboys perspective. We’re also tackling the best possible scenarios.
With the help of
Dane Brugler’s recently published annual draft guide, we’re taking a look at scenarios the Cowboys could be facing in the first three rounds.
Why only the first three rounds? Dallas currently owns 10 picks, but this draft will likely be judged in the future on what happens with those first four picks, all in the Top 100.
So here we go. The best and worst-case scenarios for the Cowboys in the first three rounds.
First round, No. 10 overall
Best-case scenario: Alabama cornerback
Patrick Surtain II, Florida tight end
Kyle Pitts, Oregon offensive tackle
Penei Sewell and Northwestern offensive tackle
Rashawn Slater are all still available when the Cowboys go on the clock. That is highly unlikely. The Cowboys should actually be in good shape as long as one of those four players is there.
Defense is clearly Dallas’ biggest need. Help is needed at every position. But Surtain seems like the defender that would make the most sense for the Cowboys at No. 10. This isn’t a great defensive draft at the top. In Brugler’s draft guide, Surtain is ranked as the top defender in this class at No. 10. The next four defenders are Penn State linebacker
Micah Parsons (12), South Carolina cornerback
Jaycee Horn (14), Notre Dame linebacker
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (15) and Georgia edge rusher
Azeez Ojulari (16).
If the Cowboys were absolutely committed to drafting defense, trading back would make a lot of sense if Surtain is already gone. They could gain extra picks and probably still get one of those other defenders. The chances of a move back increase if there’s a top quarterback prospect still available. For example, if North Dakota State’s Trey Lance or Alabama’s Mac Jones are still there, maybe a team like the Patriots at No. 15 or the Bears at No. 20 would be looking to get up to 10. It would be a costly move for either, but teams have proven they will overpay for the possibility to land a franchise quarterback.
Surtain would step in immediately as the starting outside cornerback opposite
Trevon Diggs. Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis would then likely round out the nickel and dime packages at defensive back. The position would appear pretty solid entering the season. If a cornerback isn’t the pick at No. 10, there’s a decent chance one will be targeted in the second round.
Sewell or Slater would instantly help an offensive line that was greatly impacted by injuries last year. Sewell is Brugler’s No. 5 overall prospect. Slater is ranked No. 11. Sewell is the better left tackle prospect of the two. Landing him would mean the Cowboys would have
Tyron Smith’s future replacement. Slater has the ability to play guard or tackle, so similar to
Zack Martin. He too could be Smith’s eventual replacement.
Pitts would probably be the pick with the highest upside. He’d step into any offense and immediately cause problems for opposing defenses, but especially while lining up with
Dak Prescott,
Amari Cooper,
CeeDee Lamb,
Michael Gallup and
Ezekiel Elliott. The biggest issue with drafting Pitts, Sewell or Slater is it means the Cowboys aren’t adding a premium player to a defense that badly needs playmakers. However, they were in the same position last year and ended up picking Lamb over edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson. Lamb clearly made the bigger impact of the two last season.
Worst-case scenario: No wide receivers are drafted with the top nine picks. If it somehow ended up with five quarterbacks and Surtain, Pitts, Sewell and Slater as the first nine selections, Dallas might be faced with reaching a little bit for a defender. It’s not a terrible situation, but it’s probably not what the Cowboys would prefer. The Cowboys aren’t expected to use another top pick on a wide receiver and right behind them are the division rival Giants and Eagles. Both could take a wide receiver. And in that scenario, all five quarterbacks are gone, so the best hope of a trade back is that another team is willing to move up to land the wide receiver of their choice. That would most likely be LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase.
Remember, a wide receiver didn’t go last year until Henry Ruggs at No. 12, followed by Jerry Jeudy at No. 15 and Lamb at No. 17. Most mock drafts had at least one of those three going in the top 10 before last year’s draft. It would be very surprising if that happens again, but that would be a worst-case scenario.
Second round, No. 44 overall
Best-case scenario: A top defender slips. It happened last year when the Cowboys considered Diggs at No. 17, only to end up getting him at Pick 51. Some prospects who would be interesting for Dallas: Alabama defensive tackle
Christian Barmore, Virginia Tech cornerback
Caleb Farley, or an edge rusher like Penn State’s
Jayson Oweh, Washington’s
Joe Tryon or Miami’s
Gregory Rousseau. These are all players most have seen going in the first round of mock drafts. But every year players slip unexpectedly. And this doesn’t even necessarily mean they fall to 44. If a top player on the Cowboys’ board starts falling, this is an area where you could see them look to move up. They did it in 2014 with DeMarcus Lawrence. He was by far the top edge rusher remaining on their board. So they sent Picks 47 and 78 to Washington in exchange for Pick 34.
Worst-case scenario: They reach on a defensive player to fill a need. For example, if the Cowboys miss out on Surtain or Horn in the first round and reach for a cornerback here. There should still be quality cornerbacks at this point, but there could be a safety or defensive lineman or linebacker with better value. Fortunately for Dallas, there should be plenty of quality on defense at this pick and into the third round.
To give you an idea of the defensive depth, Brugler has 12 cornerbacks, 10 edge rushers, six linebackers, five defensive tackles and three safeties graded as first- or second-round picks.
Third round, No. 75 and No. 99 overall
Best-case scenario: They find another Michael Gallup. No, not necessarily a wide receiver. But a third-round pick who makes the type of impact Gallup has over the past three years. Since being drafted 81st overall in 2018, Gallup has played in all but two games, starting 35. Maybe that player is Houston edge rusher
Payton Turner or Oregon safety
Jevon Holland or a linebacker such as LSU’s
Jabril Cox or N.C. State defensive tackle
Alim McNeill. This should be a spot where an immediate starting-caliber player is still possible to find, especially on defense.
Worst-case scenario: They reach on a player to fill a need. For the most part, the third round has been pretty good for the Cowboys over the last decade. DeMarco Murray, Tyrone Crawford, Terrance Williams, Maliek Collins, Lewis and Gallup were all solid values for the third round. The only miss was Chaz Green in 2015.
Dallas never seemed to reach last year in Mike McCarthy’s first draft as the team’s head coach. It could be argued that the draft was the only thing that went well for the Cowboys in 2020. What will be interesting to watch this year is if and when they look to possibly package a couple of picks together to move up in a round. The last time Dallas made 10 or more picks in a draft was 2009, one of the least impactful classes in franchise history. The Cowboys didn’t make a first- or second-round pick that year. Their first two selections were linebacker Jason Williams and offensive tackle Robert Brewster, both picked in the third round. Dallas made nine picks in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018.