2022 Draft Weekend Chatter Thread...

[boozeman]

Kiper had Tyler Smith ranked 33rd (we took him 24), Sam Williams 125 (56), Jalen Tolbert 79 (88), Jake Ferguson outside of his top 225 (129), Waletzko 114 (155), Bland 153 (167), Clark 119 (176), Ridgeway 152 (178) and Harper unraked (193).

So we generally took players either where he had them ranked or got theoretical value in his eyes by taking guys 30-50 slots past where he had them ranked.

So as far as I can tell his problem with our class is Williams, who is pretty clearly one of the top pure edge rushers in the class, because he thinks he can't stop the run or has issues off the field.

Beyond that the Ferguson thing is just kind of ridiculous, he was a 2-time All Big 10 player and a top 2 receiving target for the Badgers the last few years. You could argue we took him a little early but anybody arguing he's barely a draftable player is out in left field.

My point is that I think Kiper is a bit full of shit and slanting his "grade" heavily towards his dislike of the Williams pick.

Kiper is a sad case because all the connections he made long ago are either in a nursing home or dead.

 

[Smitty]

Not sure why you think we are over estimating them. I'm really not sure why Sam Williams is so inferior to Lawrence as a prospect for example.

But if your draft consists of a hall of fame guard, probowl DE and 1000 yard receiver you've hit a home run. So no, I'm not banking on that. I doubt Smith turns into Zach Martin for example.

I do think that Sam Williams has double digit sack potential. So yeah I think he could be Lawrence, hell I think he has a ceiling higher than Lawrence. He just has all the raw tools you dream about in a pass rusher.

And Tolbert, to me is very Gallup like when we drafted him. Just lots of similarities but it doesn't mean he becomes a 1000 yard receiver. I also think Gallup gets overrated a bit by fans. He makes spectacular catches but in the end he catches a pretty low percentage of balls thrown his direction compared to our other receivers. I'm hoping Tolbert can be more of a chain mover than Gallup who we complete only around 55% of the passes his direction (Granted because he doesn't get many short routes).

I think your scenario is best case. I’m guessing it falls a little short of that when we look back at it 4 years from now.

 

[NoDak]

At the end of the day both Smith and Williams were definite reaches.

Where they, though? Your boy Melsy mocked Smith to us in the first in his final mock right before the draft.

So is he smart, or not?

 

[Smitty]

I said Kiper but it’s really most grades. The overall community would not say we had a great draft. Just saying…. They are usually right ISH and probably are this time as well.

 

[Smitty]

Where they, though? Your boy Melsy mocked Smith to us in the first in his final mock right before the draft.

So is he smart, or not?

Yes, they were. And his mocks are not where he thinks the players are ranked, it’s where he thinks teams will take them, including need reachers. He had Smith in the second round.

 

[Simpleton]

I wasn’t implying it would have to be a Zack Martin, Lawrence and Gallup, but again, I think this class ends up looking more like 2018 than 2020 when all is said and done. You probably get one re-sign long term deal, one walk, and one who might get strung along a bit.

At the end of the day both Smith and Williams were definite reaches. There is a lot to like about those players but the fact that they were reaches means we can’t gloss over that there are also negatives. The NFL is hard and I would be hard pressed to see them turning into a Lamb/Diggs outcome. That’s an A draft despite picking later.

This will be, in my guess, more like 2018 where you get a keeper with Gallup, someone will start off and on like Connor Williams but leave you wanting more and eventually is allowed to walk, and probably another like Vander Esch will be retained but not really entrenched as a core piece.

Those home run drafts are easy to spot generally. Lamb/Diggs was one such. This doesn’t have that feeling. Too much individual risk means the odds probably don’t roll in our favor more than an average draft.

It's probably not 2020 or 2014 but even 2018 was a solid draft. LVE, a 4-year starter in Williams, Gallup, Schultz and Wilson is an above average haul, just because we didn't extend Wilson doesn't mean it wasn't a very good pick and under slightly different circumstances we probably would've re-signed him.

If this class ends up being like that, with say Williams being the "Gallup", Clark being the "Wilson" who gets re-signed, Tolbert being the "Williams" who starts for several years but is kind of underwhelming, and Smith actually being a more dependable starter than LVE, that's a good class.

 

[Smitty]

Also, let me reiterate I’m not saying we had a bad draft. I see a lot of positivity though and we do this a lot every year - talk up guys to their best case scenarios. Maliek Collins being a starter for us, Bradley Anae being a steal.

Sometimes you get a class where you get a lot of hits, but that usually coincides with not so many consensus reaches.

I’m guessing this one doesn’t pan out to more than average for us in the final accounting. Just don’t have a great feeling about it. A lot of projection here.

 

[Smitty]

It's probably not 2020 or 2014 but even 2018 was a solid draft. LVE, a 4-year starter in Williams, Gallup, Schultz and Wilson is an above average haul, just because we didn't extend Wilson doesn't mean it wasn't a very good pick and under slightly different circumstances we probably would've re-signed him.

If this class ends up being like that, with say Williams being the "Gallup", Clark being the "Wilson" who gets re-signed, Tolbert being the "Williams" who starts for several years but is kind of underwhelming, and Smith actually being a more dependable starter than LVE, that's a good class.

I think you are overselling how good that 2018 class was.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

At the end of the day both Smith and Williams were definite reaches.

Meh, I guess it depends on how you define a reach. We drafted Smith but we basically got him right before another team was about to draft him. So was he a reach compared to Kipers ranking of 33 best in the draft? I guess. But was he a reach if other NFL teams viewed him as the type of player worth our pick?

So he was ranked higher than Lawrence when we drafted him. I'll take a probowl LG who isn't HOFer Zach Martin. Works for me.

Sam Williams I've been a big fan of for awhile. I just chalk him up to people thinking he will go lower due to the sexual assault accusation a few years ago. Otherwise it's nonsense that he should be anything but right up there with the top pass rushers in this class. Watch him and watch Walker and you tell me who looks better. It's not even close.

 

[Simpleton]

I think you are overselling how good that 2018 class was.

Gallup is a very good WR2, Wilson a good WR3, Schultz is seemingly a top 6ish TE in the league, Williams started 4 years and was just signed to be a starter, and LVE is another borderline starter-type who had a legitimate (albeit fluky) Pro Bowl season.

That's 3.5-4 starting caliber players, it looks worse to us because Williams had his worst year last season and we didn't get the full benefit of Wilson's development, but not many teams are drafting 3-4 starters a year.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I think you are overselling how good that 2018 class was.

When LVE looked like a stud early in his career as a probowl LBer it looked a lot better. Injuries kind of destroyed that. Had he continued that trajectory it would be far different. But injuries can suddenly destroy any draft class so who knows. As far as I know the only injury risk in this class is Clark.

 

[Bipo]

Kiper is a sad case because all the connections he made long ago are either in a nursing home or dead.

Right, I doubt he was allowed to go many places the past couple of years either since he didn't get vaxxed. ESPN made him work from home this year. (not that I am for or against vax...just stop before ya start)

 

[Simpleton]

Also, let me reiterate I’m not saying we had a bad draft. I see a lot of positivity though and we do this a lot every year - talk up guys to their best case scenarios. Maliek Collins being a starter for us, Bradley Anae being a steal.

Sometimes you get a class where you get a lot of hits, but that usually coincides with not so many consensus reaches.

I’m guessing this one doesn’t pan out to more than average for us in the final accounting. Just don’t have a great feeling about it. A lot of projection here.

There is a lot of projection and no bona fide studs that everybody knew was a stud 6 months before the draft like Lamb/Parsons, but that's how it goes when you're picking in the last 8 picks of each round.

I like this class overall better than last year's where I think we reached much more on guys like Wright and took bigger risks on guys like Joseph than we did this year.

Last year you had Parsons as a clear stud, Odighizuwa as a likely solid starter, Cox as a potential steal and not a whole bunch else.

There's no clear stud this year but I feel way better about Williams/Tolbert than I did Joseph/Osa/Golston/Wright.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Gallup is a very good WR2, Wilson a good WR3, Schultz is seemingly a top 6ish TE in the league, Williams started 4 years and was just signed to be a starter, and LVE is another borderline starter-type who had a legitimate (albeit fluky) Pro Bowl season.

That's 3.5-4 starting caliber players, it looks worse to us because Williams had his worst year last season and we didn't get the full benefit of Wilson's development, but not many teams are drafting 3-4 starters a year.

It's also really hard to sign and keep 4 guys out of a draft class. That's a lot of money hitting the books all at once. So some hits aren't going to get a second contract. Just how the NFL works, you kind of have to sap four years out of them and then let them go. You really need 2 long term starters out of a class in my opinion. That's a good class. And hopefully one of them becomes a perennial all pro like Zach Martin. But that's not easy picking at 24.

I feel good that we got 2 long term starters in this class. Maybe it's Smith and Sam Williams. Maybe it's Smith and Tolbert. Hell maybe Clark makes a full recovery and he is one of them. The rest of the guys probably aren't second contract types. Ferguson is maybe the next Schultz on a good day. Bland could maybe be an Anthony Brown or on the street in a couple years. Waletzko is a project that could be a starter or could flame out. Ridgeway will probably have a long career as a role player. Harper is probably a special teams Ace backup LBer.

 

[Bipo]

Realistically, we don't know if we have a #1 WR now.

 

[boozeman]

Right, I doubt he was allowed to go many places the past couple of years either since he didn't get vaxxed. ESPN made him work from home this year. (not that I am for or against vax...just stop before ya start)

The guy had Willis at 17. He was a leeeeeettttle off.

 

[NoDak]

(not that I am for or against vax...just stop before ya start)

Nobody here gives a fuck if you are or not. Only give a fuck about whether you are the type that would push your belief on others, whichever way it might be. (not saying that you are)

 

[Rev]

Realistically, we don't know if we have a #1 WR now.

Oh. We know.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Realistically, we don't know if we have a #1 WR now.

We don't, I just hope Tolbert can step in as a third receiver and we are able to makeup for not having Cooper by having 3 really good receivers. I hope Lamb can take the next step. I think as fans we are a little harsh on Lamb because of some drops. He still catches around 65% of the balls thrown at him with a 14 ypc average. That's pretty good for a WR. Cooper was only slightly higher.

Gallup is who I think gets overrated a bit. Catches only around 56% of the balls thrown his direction. Averaged only 12.7 ypc last year and 14.3 the year before. Part of that is the role he plays in the offense but we definitely need other guys or Lamb to step up.

 

[shoop]

So this is why I don't understand kickers. This guy sounds great. But the LSU kicker was the top guy in the draft, Cade York? The only kicker drafted to be exact. How the hell does one decide who is the best? Why not Dicker the kicker? Iowa's Shudak was great in college. But hell if I know what he will do in the NFL.

It was a little weird to see a kicker and 2 punters taken in the 4th, then a punter each in the 6th and 7th