Dak Watch Thread...

[Simpleton]

I don't think the Mahomes deal should have much impact on a potential Dak deal, and if I were Stephen I'd pretty much just act like it never happened as far as how I'd approach negotiations.

Mahomes the player and the deal itself are complete outliers. Mahomes is on pace to be a top 5 QB of all-time and is the first ever QB to win a SB and MVP before 25, so that is pretty self-explanatory, while the deal is clearly an outlier in comparison to every other recent deal with high-level QB's as far as the length, structure and of course the AAV, but that AAV is only able to be so high because the deal is more than twice as long as pretty much every other recent high-profile QB contract.

The part of the Mahomes deal I'd really look at in comparison to Dak are the cap hits from 2022-2026, because Mahomes was under contract already in 2020 and 2021 so the extension was really just tacked on and covers 2022-2031. Here they are:

2022: $31.45
2023: $42.45
2024: $39.95
2025: $41.95
2026: $41.95

To me this is the real basis for comparison for a possible 4-5 year deal for Dak, not the overall $45-$47 million/year. The average of those first 5 cap hits is $39.55 million/year, if you cut it back to just the first 4 that number drops even further to $38.95/year.

With that in mind, I don't think the 35/year number for Dak changes at all, and if anything I think it only solidifies the fact that that is where his contract should slot in at more or less.

If Dak's agent comes in asking for $38/year and uses Mahomes' $47/year as the basis for comparison then they can both fuck right off and I'd do everything I could to ship him to some hellhole like Jacksonville.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I don't think the Mahomes deal should have much impact on a potential Dak deal, and if I were Stephen I'd pretty much just act like it never happened as far as how I'd approach negotiations.

Mahomes the player and the deal itself are complete outliers. Mahomes is on pace to be a top 5 QB of all-time and is the first ever QB to win a SB and MVP before 25, so that is pretty self-explanatory, while the deal is clearly an outlier in comparison to every other recent deal with high-level QB's as far as the length, structure and of course the AAV, but that AAV is only able to be so high because the deal is more than twice as long as pretty much every other recent high-profile QB contract.

The part of the Mahomes deal I'd really look at in comparison to Dak are the cap hits from 2022-2026, because Mahomes was under contract already in 2020 and 2021 so the extension was really just tacked on and covers 2022-2031. Here they are:

2022: $31.45
2023: $42.45
2024: $39.95
2025: $41.95
2026: $41.95

To me this is the real basis for comparison for a possible 4-5 year deal for Dak, not the overall $45-$47 million/year. The average of those first 5 cap hits is $39.55 million/year, if you cut it back to just the first 4 that number drops even further to $38.95/year.

With that in mind, I don't think the 35/year number for Dak changes at all, and if anything I think it only solidifies the fact that that is where his contract should slot in at more or less.

If Dak's agent comes in asking for $38/year and uses Mahomes' $47/year as the basis for comparison then they can both fuck right off and I'd do everything I could to ship him to some hellhole like Jacksonville.

I think it depends on the length of Daks deal. If you want a fifth or sixth year those are going to come in at 40 mil or more increasing the average. But the first 4 years should average about 35 mil.

 

[ravidubey]

Dak will get at least 41 per year, or he can sit back and sign FT deals for huge paydays.

He doesn't want to do that, but why would he sign a long term deal for less overall money?

 

[Simpleton]

Dak will get at least 41 per year, or he can sit back and sign FT deals for huge paydays.

He doesn't want to do that, but why would he sign a long term deal for less overall money?

There is a 0.0% chance he's getting 41/year unless it's a 6+ year deal.

 

[ravidubey]

There is a 0.0% chance he's getting 41/year unless it's a 6+ year deal.

I had 5/41 per, so it's close.

 

[Cotton]

Snippet from an article in the Athletic:

Another impact of this deal lies with other quarterbacks seeking an extension, most notably Dak Prescott of the Cowboys and Deshaun Watson of the Texans. It also impacts Lamar Jackson, but not until next season. Watson and Prescott will argue they need to be paid as much as Mahomes, which is why the real value of the average per year will become vital to learn in the coming days. Prescott is not better than Russell Wilson of the Seahawks, and his average is $35 million per year. But not being better and being paid more never go hand to hand. Leverage matters more, and Prescott has substantial leverage. Todd France, the agent for Prescott, will never take less than $35 million — he will now want Prescott to be near $40 million, arguing that his client is not $10 million a year below Mahomes, which will prove tough on the Cowboys to reach a deal unless they are willing to get close to $40 million per year. And for France, he will be happy to play the tender game, as it makes his case for a deal near $40 million per year. France knew signing the tender gave him leverage — it also allowed the Mahomes deal to finalize. There was no way, as I have written in the past, that France would ever do a deal before Mahomes or Watson — it was too risky. Now, time is on his side and saying no just became a lot easier for France.

Full article at:

Lombardi: What the Mahomes deal means for Dak, Lamar, Watson and the entire NFL

The impact of the Mahomes deal has tentacles all over the NFL and will force the cost of doing business at every position to rise.

theathletic.com

 

[Genghis Khan]

Watson and Prescott will argue they need to be paid as much as Mahomes

 

[Simpleton]

As I said above, in my mind the comparison from Dak to Mahomes is not to the 47/year number that Mahomes is getting, the only reason that number is so high is because he's now under contract for 10+ years.

The real comparison is to the AAV from 2022-2026, which comes in just under 40/year, with that in mind I'd refuse to go above those numbers and would insist on 35/year. I guess I'd go up to like 36.5 or whatever to close the deal but if Prescott and his agents want to play true hard ball and insist on 38-40/year I'd be aggressively looking to move him.

Would the Jaguars be interested in giving up their next two 1's for him?

If so I'd ship him right off and look to move up for a QB next year if need be. Even with Prescott I'm pretty sure the Jaguars will be somewhere in the 8-12 range and potentially even higher.

 

[data]

Dak Prescott earned $2.56M last year in royalties for essentially jersey sales, which is #4 behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Mahomes.

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes beaten out by retired player for title of NFLPA's top royalty earner, per report

A retire player somehow earned more royalty money than Mahomes and Brady

www.cbssports.com

 

[Rev]

Dak Prescott earned $2.56M last year in royalties for essentially jersey sales, which is #4 behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Mahomes.

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes beaten out by retired player for title of NFLPA's top royalty earner, per report

A retire player somehow earned more royalty money than Mahomes and Brady

www.cbssports.com

Peyton is still selling Jerseys at that rate?

 

[data]

Peyton is still selling Jerseys at that rate?

Unless Peyton gets a much, much higher royalty for trading cards and video games...it seems to be yes.

 

[P_T]

Peyton is still selling Jerseys at that rate?

Well, he won a SB with two teams, so that's 2 fan bases buying his jersey. I imagine the same thing happening with TB jerseys if he has success with the Bucs.

 

[boozeman]

 

[Rev]

Well, he won a SB with two teams, so that's 2 fan bases buying his jersey. I imagine the same thing happening with TB jerseys if he has success with the Bucs.

I get that but that was years ago. Cant really imagine new fans going out looking for a Peyton jersey to keep this current. Just could be me, though. Never been a jersey guy so maybe I just dont understand it.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I don't even care anymore. Usually right now I'm getting excited for the football season but with Covid it's like there is a bunch of nothing going on and we have no idea when that will change.

With that being said you know they will start negotiating right before the deadline hoping to force Dak into a deal. But I'm not sure Dak feels that pressure at all.

 

[NoDak]

Don't even care.

If he signs? Cool. If he doesn't sign? Cool.

 

[NoDak]

I don't even care anymore.

Props, you magnificent time stamping bastard.

 

[Cotton]

It's hard to care about anything sports-related right now. Everything is changing by the day and I refuse to get my hopes up that I will even get to watch football this year.

 

[Rev]

It's hard to care about anything sports-related right now. Everything is changing by the day and I refuse to get my hopes up that I will even get to watch football this year.

Cant see how a close contact sport like football can hold a season. I gave up that hope months ago.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Cant see how a close contact sport like football can hold a season. I gave up that hope months ago.

I think it'll be very telling to see how basketball and hockey goes. If they can make it work i don't see why football can't. Especially basketball given they are in close proximity, constantly sweating, touching and breathing on each other, and don't wear any of the protective gear football and hockey wear.