Dak Watch Thread...

[Cotton]

 

[Genghis Khan]

This is a smart, honest comment.

It's really a tough dynamic. You have two sides with cross purposes on salary but also a common goal to win a championship. And the salary serves to hamper the ability to win.

But then you put the agent in between and he shares the cross purposes but he doesn't share the common goal of winning. And so all reasonableness can go out the window.

 

[Simpleton]

And Brady's good coaching doesn't count because...?

Jackson did complete 66%, almost a 9% TD ratio, 36 TDs over 6 INTS (1.5% INT ratio). 113 QB Rating. Are you claiming those stats are bullshit :)

Oh yeah, and 1206 rushing yards and 7 more TDs. That's... insane.

Just poking the bear. I agree he needs to use his WRs more, regardless of what the stupid stats say.

And if improved talent at WR makes him better we'll have a player the likes of which no one has ever seen. Randall Cunningham may have come closest.

The bottom line is Jackson needs to win with his arm first and his legs second if he wants longevity in the NFL. His success in the passing game last year was mostly a function of his ability to run, the overall strength of the team's running game, and the creative offensive design built around the run.

He only passed the ball 26 times/game last year, that was good for 40th in the league and is historically low for a starting QB, and certainly an MVP candidate. He ran the ball nearly 12 times a game, which is damn near half as much as he passed. The guys in that same range last year as far as attempts/game included Mason Rudolph, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, Brissett, and Garropolo, along with a bunch of career backup types. Those are all QB's on teams who clearly intended to go run heavy, not make mistakes in the passing game because they didn't trust their QB's and planned to win with defense/ball control, with hopefully a few big plays off play action.

Every single elite QB over the last 10-15 years is consistently in that 32-35+ range and unless Jackson is just completely superhuman and can avoid injuries running the ball 10+ times/game over the next 10 years, that's where he needs to get while reducing his rushing attempts to around 5 or so.

Russell Wilson followed a similar trajectory as the offense he was in when he first got to Seattle was very conservative and run-oriented. As the years went by his pass attempts per game steadily rose while his rushing attempts per game decreased. That's exactly what Jackson has to do if he wants to be a franchise QB for a decade.

My argument is not that the style doesn't work in any given year, because clearly what the Ravens did offensively last year was awesome, but there has never been a QB, nor will there ever be a QB who can last in the NFL over 10+ years running the ball 8-10+ times a game.

Newton is a god damn tank physically, he tried it (and even he never ran as much as Jackson did last year) and by year 8-9 he was falling apart.

 

[Simpleton]

Hill and Kelce crush our best. Watkins and Gallup are a wash. Zeke gives us the edge (well, at least 2016 Zeke does...)

When you count QB's too, well Mahomes definitely beats Dak by a huge margin. Just so much more of a creative passer with half the OL Dak has. Nothing to be ashamed of, Mahomes is better than everyone.

But clearly you take Jackson over Dak ten times out of ten also. Can you imagine what he (or Mahomes) might do with Dallas' skill players around him?

Obviously with Mahomes it's no contest, but if you're just looking at WR's/TE's/RB's I'm taking Dallas, even if it's by an ever so slight margin.

I look at it like this, Hill is better than Cooper but not by a significant margin and if they switched teams I think the perception would be that they're about equal, if not a slight lean towards Cooper as the better player. Hill's speed really opens things up but he also has the best QB in the league and maybe the best play-caller/offensive designer, Cooper has been at a disadvantage in both areas.

Aside from that, even if we assume Hill is better, there's no chance Gallup and Watkins are a wash. Watkins has plateaued over the last 2-3 years and is probably about 2-3 years from being out of the league while Gallup has the look of an ascending star. Clear advantage to Dallas.

We have JAG TE's but an elite, possibly HOF-caliber RB, they have JAG RB's but an elite, possibly HOF-caliber TE. Basically a wash.

The real wild card for me is Lamb because I think he could potentially be the best WR on either team in very short order, and even if he isn't he is the difference that pushes the Cowboys group over the top for me when it's mostly a wash otherwise.

 

[1bigfan13]

The Chiefs are the only team in the league with better skill position players, and that's only because of Mahomes. Take out Mahomes and it's a pure toss up, and I think I'd even lean Cowboys.

I don't know. I think the Ravens group could challenge the Cowboys as well.

At QB they have the league MVP. They have a strong group of RBs with Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Dobbins. Their TEs blow the Cowboys out of the water....Andrews, Boyle, and Hurst. Their only real question mark is at WR. Hollywood Brown had a solid rookie year and they're adding Duvernay to the mix. He reminds me of Deebo Samuel who I also liked.

 

[Simpleton]

I don't know. I think the Ravens group could challenge the Cowboys as well.

At QB they have the league MVP. They have a strong group of RBs with Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Dobbins. Their TEs blow the Cowboys out of the water....Andrews, Boyle, and Hurst. Their only real question mark is at WR. Hollywood Brown had a solid rookie year and they're adding Duvernay to the mix. He reminds me of Deebo Samuel who I also liked.

I think if you took some league-average coaching staff, let's say the Broncos, the personnel we have would give them a higher chance of success. The Ravens offense looked great last year but it was so outside the norm of what you see in the league that it's hard for me to think that style is going to be able to be replicated or repeated year after year.

Ingram/Edwards/Dobbins is good, but Ingram is 30, Dobbins is a rookie and we have Elliott. Brown and their WR's are ok but we have probably the best WR trio in the league. Their TE's are definitely better and QB's I think are basically a wash, although I think there's more risk with Jackson given his reliance on running the ball 10+times/game and how system specific their offense was last year.

Their group is strong for sure, especially since they also have a strong OL, but I'd never take their group over ours.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I don't know. I think the Ravens group could challenge the Cowboys as well.

At QB they have the league MVP. They have a strong group of RBs with Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Dobbins. Their TEs blow the Cowboys out of the water....Andrews, Boyle, and Hurst. Their only real question mark is at WR. Hollywood Brown had a solid rookie year and they're adding Duvernay to the mix. He reminds me of Deebo Samuel who I also liked.

Hurst was booted for a middle round pick...

 

[1bigfan13]

Hurst was booted for a middle round pick...

Thanks. I missed that bit of news.

 

[1bigfan13]

I think if you took some league-average coaching staff, let's say the Broncos, the personnel we have would give them a higher chance of success. The Ravens offense looked great last year but it was so outside the norm of what you see in the league that it's hard for me to think that style is going to be able to be replicated or repeated year after year.

Ingram/Edwards/Dobbins is good, but Ingram is 30, Dobbins is a rookie and we have Elliott. Brown and their WR's are ok but we have probably the best WR trio in the league. Their TE's are definitely better and QB's I think are basically a wash, although I think there's more risk with Jackson given his reliance on running the ball 10+times/game and how system specific their offense was last year.

Their group is strong for sure, especially since they also have a strong OL, but I'd never take their group over ours.

I get what you're saying. I'm just looking at it from a single season standpoint.

Now if we're talking about which group would I take for the next 3 years then absolutely I'm taking the Cowboys because their style of play has proven to be more traditional and sustainable.

I know the league will eventually catch up to what the Ravens are doing just like they did with the Wildcat back in 2008. But I think they'll be able to get away with it for at least another year.

 

[boozeman]

This is a slightly different flavor from the past. Maybe Fat Mike isn't nearly as sold on Prescott and has his doubts whether or not to go all in with him.

 

[Simpleton]

Ultimately "going all in" is only 4 years, so it's not like we'd be completely tied to him forever. It's basically a 3 year deal and inevitably you'd be able to save money against the cap by cutting him if we so choose.

That's one of the reasons why it's confounding to me why they refuse to give him 4 instead of 5.

 

[p1_]

 

[Genghis Khan]

How is that spin? You either give the player whatever he wants, or you have to do your job and manage the cap so that you can actually try to field a winner.

 

[boozeman]

How is that spin? You either give the player whatever he wants, or you have to do your job and manage the cap so that you can actually try to field a winner.

Precisely. Unless you think he is your franchise QB, you have to be prudent about it. Think the Rams have buyer's remorse about paying Goff?

Tag him this year and next if you are unsure. Then get the third round comp pick if you are still not sold.

I think he has done enough to earn the contract. But it looks like both he and his representation are about setting the market.

I say nope to that, he's never going to be at that elite level.

 

[Simpleton]

If they can't get him signed by July 15 they should be quietly gauging interest in a trade. We have an above average, if unspectacular alternative in Dalton and our leverage will only decrease the longer it drags out.

If the deadline passes and there is a team willing to throw 2 1st's and a few mid round picks at us, they should take it and plan for the future.

Granted, I think there is a 0.0% chance that this happens since they'll likely give in and get something done on about July 13, but I honestly think trading him would be better than letting the deadline pass with no deal and having this drama play out indefinitely.

 

[p1_]

 

[Simpleton]

If the guy is turning down 35 AAV because of 4 years vs. 5 I would honestly just tell him to fuck off and go see how much endorsement money he can make in Jacksonville throwing the ball to Dede Westbrook and Laviska Shenault instead of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb.

It's hard to have too firm of an opinion on the situation because we have no idea what's going on in negotiations but if they're offering him 35 AAV in pretty much any form or fashion he's an idiot for turning it down.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

The old Jerry would have caved to whatever the player wanted, just like with Zeke.

And that will probably happen again... but I wonder what McCarthy really thinks about Dak and how he might influence things. The old passive lap dog coach is long gone.

 

[Cotton]

If the guy is turning down 35 AAV because of 4 years vs. 5 I would honestly just tell him to fuck off and go see how much endorsement money he can make in Jacksonville throwing the ball to Dede Westbrook and Laviska Shenault instead of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb.

It's hard to have too firm of an opinion on the situation because we have no idea what's going on in negotiations but if they're offering him 35 AAV in pretty much any form or fashion he's an idiot for turning it down.

Yep, speculation is a conversation’s worst nightmare.

 

[boozeman]

If the guy is turning down 35 AAV because of 4 years vs. 5 I would honestly just tell him to fuck off and go see how much endorsement money he can make in Jacksonville throwing the ball to Dede Westbrook and Laviska Shenault instead of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb.

It's hard to have too firm of an opinion on the situation because we have no idea what's going on in negotiations but if they're offering him 35 AAV in pretty much any form or fashion he's an idiot for turning it down.

Yeah, I would be losing patience by this point.