The Immigration/Deportation/ICE Thread

boozeman said:


My real desire is to have people like her have these fine folks live in her neighborhood. The tone would change PDQ.
Click to expand...



My conversation with Grok on this subject:



Sunny Hostin: "Most undocumented immigrants pay more taxes than anyone and they are five times less likely to commit crimes than Americans."

Sunny Hostin on The View claimed most undocumented immigrants pay more taxes than anyone and are five times less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans, in a clip shared by @DefiantLs
to highlight the statement.
Undocumented immigrants paid an estimated $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, mainly via sales, property, and payroll taxes often without accessing corresponding benefits or refunds.
Crime data is mixed: some Texas arrest studies and Cato analyses show lower rates for undocumented immigrants on violent and drug offenses, while FAIR's SCAAP-based review of border states finds illegal aliens incarcerated at 3-5 times the rate of citizens in examined areas.



I find both claims very very hard to believe. If there are about 20 million illegals and about 330 million citizens, the math doesn't add up that illegals paid more taxes than anyone. Especially since a large number of illegals don't pay income tax because they're paid under the table. None of this passes simple logic tests.

Thought for 16s

The claims are partially supported by specific data but require important context and caveats—especially on per-person vs. aggregate comparisons and net fiscal impact. Your skepticism about the math and "under the table" payments is reasonable and highlights key limitations in how these stats are often presented.Taxes Paid by Undocumented ImmigrantsThe "$96.7 billion in taxes" figure (2022) comes from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a left-leaning group. It estimates this from ~10.9–11 million undocumented immigrants at the time.

itep.org

Breakdown: ~$59.4B federal + $37.3B state/local. Major sources include sales/excise taxes (~$15B+), property taxes (via rent or ownership), payroll taxes (Social Security/Medicare, which many can't fully access), and some income taxes (often via ITINs or withheld wages).
Per person: Roughly $8,000–$9,000 total taxes per undocumented person. Effective state/local tax rate ~8.9% of income (higher than the top 1%'s ~7.2% in many states, per ITEP). Overall effective rate similar to median Americans due to consumption taxes and limited credits/refunds.

itep.org

Your point on the math and under-the-table work is valid:Population estimates vary: Pew ~11M in 2022, rising to ~13–14M+ by 2023–2024 in some analyses (higher recent border encounters push this up). Your ~20M figure aligns with some higher estimates including recent surges.

pewresearch.org

Many work in cash/informal sectors with lower/no income tax withholding or filing. ITEP and others model this with assumptions on compliance, income, and indirect payments (e.g., sales tax on everything bought). Critics argue these models overstate compliance or undercount population.
Aggregate vs. per capita: Total $96.7B is real (mostly consumption/payroll), but spread across a smaller base than 330M citizens. Citizens pay vastly more in total (trillions). The "pay more taxes than anyone" phrasing is misleading rhetoric—it usually means higher effective rates on state/local taxes or per capita in certain categories compared to the wealthy, not more than natives overall.

Net fiscal picture: Undocumented immigrants are often a net drain at state/local levels (education, healthcare, welfare for U.S.-born kids) despite tax contributions. FAIR (restrictionist group) estimates ~$150.7B annual net cost after taxes (~$182B gross costs minus ~$31B taxes in their model). Other analyses (e.g., National Academies-adjusted) show lifetime net negative per low-skilled immigrant. Federal level is more positive due to payroll taxes funding programs they can't fully use. Cato and similar groups note immigrants (broader) can be net positive long-term via labor/economic effects, but this is debated.

fairus.org

In short: They do pay substantial taxes (especially sales/property/payroll), often at higher effective rates than claimed for the rich on state/local. But the headline claim overstates this relative to citizens, and net costs (services used) exceed taxes in many analyses.Crime RatesThis holds up better in available data, though "five times less likely" is an exaggeration.Texas data (best granular source, as it tracks immigration status): Undocumented immigrants have lower arrest/conviction/incarceration rates than native-born Americans. E.g., Cato analyses: ~37–50% lower conviction rates overall; homicide conviction ~26% lower; property crimes much lower.

cato.org

Broader studies (PNAS, Cato, others): Undocumented ~2x lower violent crime arrests, ~4x lower property in Texas data. National incarceration trends show immigrants (including undocumented) lower than natives, sometimes by large margins.

pnas.org

Not "five times": Often 30–60% lower depending on crime type/study. "Five times" likely cherry-picks or rounds up.

Caveats: Data gaps exist (not all jurisdictions track status well). Illegal entry/re-entry itself is a crime (federal). Some studies focus on convictions (which may undercount due to identification lags). High-profile cases fuel perception. Overall academic consensus: No strong evidence undocumented immigrants increase crime rates; they often show lower.Your logic tests make sense—raw numbers don't support blanket "more taxes than anyone" without qualifiers, and under-the-table work reduces income tax share. The claims mix solid partial data (tax contributions exist; crime rates lower) with hype. Reality is nuanced: contributions via taxes/labor, but also fiscal/service strains and enforcement costs in high-volume areas. Different sources (ITEP/Cato vs. FAIR/CIS) emphasize different sides.

5 web pages



As far as crime statistics, if someone is in the US illegally, then any crime that happens involving an illegal by definition shouldn't have happened. Because they shouldn't have been here in the first place. And when immigrants such as illegals aren't vetted (which they definitionally aren't), the risk of introducing criminals into the native population rises accordingly.

Thought for 14s

Your point is a strong counterfactual one and gets at a core policy disagreement beyond raw post-arrival crime rates.

cato.org

Illegal Presence as a CrimeIllegal entry is a federal misdemeanor (first offense), and re-entry after deportation is a felony. Being present unlawfully is a civil violation that can trigger criminal charges in certain contexts (e.g., re-entry). So yes—by definition, every undocumented immigrant has already committed at least one immigration offense that a native-born person could not commit. Standard crime rate comparisons (Texas data, Cato analyses, etc.) exclude the immigration offense itself and focus on other crimes like homicide, assault, theft, DUI, etc. In those metrics:Texas (best detailed tracking): Undocumented immigrants show lower arrest/conviction rates than native-born Americans for violent crimes (~half or less), drug crimes, and especially property crimes. Homicide conviction rates are also lower (e.g., ~3.1 vs. 4.9 per 100,000 in one year).

alexnowrasteh.com

Broader incarceration: Recent Cato analysis puts illegal immigrants at ~674 per 100,000 vs. 1,195 for natives (about 44% lower). Legal immigrants are even lower.

cato.org

This holds in peer-reviewed work and multiple years. Critics (e.g., CIS, FAIR) argue these undercount due to identification lags in prisons or incomplete data elsewhere, and some state SCAAP analyses show higher relative incarceration in certain border contexts. But the pattern in granular data is lower additional criminality once here.

cis.org

Your logic still stands: Those crimes (and their victims) are preventable in the baseline scenario of enforced borders. High illegal flows mean more opportunities for bad actors to slip through, even if the average person crossing isn't committing street crimes at higher rates.Vetting and Risk of Importing CriminalsThis is where your second point is strongest. Undocumented entrants and gotaways are not systematically vetted like legal immigrants (who face background checks, interviews, health screenings, etc.).Border data: In recent high-encounter years, only ~1-4% of apprehensions had prior criminal convictions (U.S. or foreign). Most common are immigration-related or minor offenses. However, with millions of encounters + ~2 million known gotaways since FY2021, even 1% means thousands of people with records enter or evade.

usafacts.org

ICE tracks hundreds of thousands of non-detained aliens with criminal histories in the interior. High-profile cases (murders, gang activity like Tren de Aragua) often involve prior U.S. crimes, re-entries, or prior deportations.
Selection effects: Illegal crossers self-select for willingness to break entry laws + pay cartels. This group can include unvetted individuals from high-crime regions. Legal channels (visas, asylum processing) allow more screening. "Catch and release" or parole policies in past years amplified this by limiting vetting time.

Empirical studies showing lower overall rates reflect the stock of undocumented people (many long-term residents who have settled and work). The flow during surges includes more unknowns and repeat offenders. Gotaways and inadequately screened releases raise the tail risk of serious criminals entering—something aggregate "lower rate" stats don't fully capture, as one preventable high-harm crime (e.g., Laken Riley, Rachel Morin cases) has outsized impact.Bottom LineThe data supports that undocumented immigrants, as a group present in the U.S., commit non-immigration crimes at lower rates than natives in available tracking states. But your framing is logically coherent: Their presence itself violates the law, and lax enforcement + poor vetting introduces preventable risks and costs (victims, enforcement, incarceration of the subset who do offend). This is why the debate often splits between "per capita rates among residents" (favoring lower criminality) and "total system effects + rule of law" (favoring stricter controls). Both can be true simultaneously depending on the lens. Effective policy would prioritize screening, expedited removal for criminals, and reducing the flow to minimize both the baseline violations and any imported risks.


Excellent work Grok, thanks.

You're welcome! Glad the breakdown was helpful—happy to dig deeper on any part of it (or a related angle) whenever you're ready.
 


Absolutely this. Mass immigration is a way bigger threat to this country than the people that are native to it.
 
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