The Athletic: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts among 5 defenses poised to break out in 2026

Cotton

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
135,909
I will just post the Cowboys portion of this article.

______________

Dallas Cowboys​

The Cowboys defense will grow along with first-year play caller Christian Parker. Parker was a highly regarded young coach, having worked under Fangio since 2021. Fangio is the architect of the current defensive meta, and Parker knows how to install his defense and, most importantly, his curveballs. Parker will certainly put his own spin on the system, but the foundation will come from Fangio and the Cowboys successfully drafted Fangio prototypes for Parker, starting with safety Caleb Downs, who will play the important nickel position in the Cowboys system.

For this sort of defensive structure to work, you must have a front capable of defending the run from a light box, and the Cowboys have that with defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. New edge linebacker Rashan Gary has been inconsistent as a pass rusher, but he’s a strong run defender. Rookie linebacker Jaishawn Barham, depending on how he develops, can give them a move-piece linebacker who will allow Parker to stem the Cowboys’ front similar to what Zack Baun does for the Eagles. Downs was also a dynamite run defender in college and will consistently be part of the run fit.

The Cowboys will depend on youth. They need first-round pick Malachi Lawrence to provide them with instant juice off the edge and second-year corner Shavon Revel Jr. to push Daron Bland, whose gambling play style doesn’t fit in the system, out of the starting lineup. The Cowboys may not push to be a top-10 unit, but they can make a huge improvement from being the 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA, FTN’s efficiency metric that accounts for strength of schedule. With their high-scoring offense, a jump to between 16th and 20th for the defense could make the Cowboys legitimate playoff contenders.

The rest of the article: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts among 5 defenses poised to break out in 2026
 
Playoff outcomes of teams winning at least one playoff game despite their defenses being ranked 16th or worse the last 15 years (year, team, reg season defensive ranking, wins, result):

2024Washington Commanders18th2Lost NFC Championship
2021Cincinnati Bengals17th3Lost Super Bowl
2016Atlanta Falcons27th2Lost Super Bowl
2013Denver Broncos22nd2Lost Super Bowl
2011New York Giants25th4Won Super Bowl

Each had
  • Elite (or near-elite) quarterback play that year.
  • Top-10 offenses.
  • High turnover differential and/or explosive-play capability.
  • Defenses that improved late in the season or got hot during the playoffs.
That last bullet is key, an average defense has no more than a puncher's chance and nearly no chance at multiple games. You have to get hot and realize elite potential down the stretch
 
ravidubey said:
Playoff outcomes of teams winning at least one playoff game despite their defenses being ranked 16th or worse the last 15 years (year, team, reg season defensive ranking, wins, result):

2024Washington Commanders18th2Lost NFC Championship
2021Cincinnati Bengals17th3Lost Super Bowl
2016Atlanta Falcons27th2Lost Super Bowl
2013Denver Broncos22nd2Lost Super Bowl
2011New York Giants25th4Won Super Bowl

Each had
  • Elite (or near-elite) quarterback play that year.
  • Top-10 offenses.
  • High turnover differential and/or explosive-play capability.
  • Defenses that improved late in the season or got hot during the playoffs.
That last bullet is key, an average defense has no more than a puncher's chance and nearly no chance at multiple games. You have to get hot and realize elite potential down the stretch
Click to expand...
Turnovers fueled the Quinn defenses. But it was also not sustainable. He can’t replicate it to save his life now.

Our key is the offense up to snuff and the defense doing its job.
 
I did sort of a study on that one time. Turnovers are never replicable by any DC. They always fluctuate quite a bit no matter how good the DC is.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
I did sort of a study on that one time. Turnovers are never replicable by any DC. They always fluctuate quite a bit no matter how good the DC is.
Click to expand...
Makes sense. You can only coach punching the ball out and reading a passing route so much. Talent has to occur at some point. Meaning, a coach that teaches good turnover skills has to have the whole team talented enough to sustain TOs very long.
 
Cotton said:
Makes sense. You can only coach punching the ball out and reading a passing route so much. Talent has to occur at some point. Meaning, a coach that teaches good turnover skills has to have the whole team talented enough to sustain TOs very long.
Click to expand...
Plus I think a lot of it is in your schedule, how many bad QBs you play, etc.
 
Chocolate Lab said:
Plus I think a lot of it is in your schedule, how many bad QBs you play, etc.
Click to expand...

Not to mention how good your own offense is in order to build leads, dictate game flow, etc. Luck is also a massive part of it, which is why it's basically a random variable that fluctuates wildly from year to year.

It's one of the main reasons for teams making huge unexpected jumps from one year to the next, then dropping off the year after like the Vikings last year and the Bears this coming year.
 
I don't know. Some DCs seem to generate turnovers more than others on a pretty consistent basis.

Things like pressure and disguising coverage definitely elevate your chances.
 
Genghis Khan said:
I don't know. Some DCs seem to generate turnovers more than others on a pretty consistent basis.

Things like pressure and disguising coverage definitely elevate your chances.
Click to expand...
I think you both raise good points. Some DCs are better at generating turnovers, and it’s impossible to replicate outlier high turnover seasons.

Washington in 1983 was +43 or something obscene like that— there was no way they were reproducing that good fortune the next year no matter how good their defense might have been
 
ravidubey said:
I think you both raise good points. Some DCs are better at generating turnovers, and it’s impossible to replicate outlier high turnover seasons.

Washington in 1983 was +43 or something obscene like that— there was no way they were reproducing that good fortune the next year no matter how good their defense might have been
Click to expand...


Yeah true it's a combination of things.
 
I dunno how these writers get paid. I am curious.

Dallas’ D was so damn bad, of course.
 
Genghis Khan said:
I don't know. Some DCs seem to generate turnovers more than others on a pretty consistent basis.

Things like pressure and disguising coverage definitely elevate your chances.
Click to expand...
We forced the shit out of turnovers in the salad days of Quinn. That still did not make any difference.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom