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Pregame Thoughts Week 1 - The Giants Start Again
With Harbaugh restarting the plan, the Giants will be determined to win in the trenches.
Bob SturmSep 11, 2026
We now have a decade of the Dak Prescott Cowboys against the NFC East. Ten years have been played and from that there have been 60 meetings possible as you play each of your three opponent bunkmates twice a year.
Twenty games vs the Philadelphia Eagles - Prescott is 10-5 and has missed five starts.
Twenty games vs the Washington Commanders - Dak is 13-2 and has missed five starts.
Twenty games vs the New York Giants - Dak is 14-3 and has missed three starts.
All 13 of his missed divisional starts were in 2020 (broken ankle), 2022 (broken thumb), and 2024 (hamstring).
But, the overall record is 37-10 in the 47 games he has started is a win percentage of 79% which even is a tad misleading – as he was given the loss in Week 18 last year even though he left the game early so Joe Milton could mop up. The Giants have not beaten Dak in a non-Week 18 setting since 2016 when he was just a rookie QB.
Before you ask, yes, it is a major upgrade from the Tony Romo decade where the Cowboys won their share and lost their share against this same division. In it, Romo was 33-26 (.559) against the NFC East in 59 regular-season starts.
- New York Giants: 11-9
- Washington Redskins/Commanders: 11-9
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-8
Only one active NFL QB is better and that – to nobody’s surprise – is Patrick Mahomes. We have Mahomes at 36-8 (.818) against the AFC West in 44 career regular-season starts and has driven every team in that division pretty crazy:
- Denver Broncos: 13-2
- Las Vegas Raiders: 13-2
- Los Angeles Chargers: 10-4
- Tom Brady: 98-27 (.784) against the AFC East
- Jim McMahon: .841 vs. the NFC Central
- Steve Young: .774 vs. the NFC West
- Peyton Manning: .780 vs. the AFC West (Broncos years) and .754 vs. the AFC South (Colts years)
- Roger Staubach: .753 vs. the NFC East
Divisional superiority is great, but clearly there are other major holes in the resume that should be acknowledged.
The Giants Are Sick and Tired of Being Sick and Tired
Yes, the New York Giants are under new management. Again. If we check the ledger of the last decade, the relaunches of Big Blue have been the following:- 2016: Ben McAdoo (replaced Tom Coughlin)
- 2017: (Steve Spagnuolo was an interim midseason when McAdoo was fired)
- 2018: Pat Shurmur
- 2020: Joe Judge
- 2022: Brian Daboll
- 2025 (Mike Kafka was an interim when Daboll was fired)
- 2026: John Harbaugh
- Daniel Jones
- Colt McCoy
- Mike Glennon
- Jake Fromm
- Davis Webb
- Tyrod Taylor
- Tommy DeVito
- Drew Lock
- Russell Wilson
- Jameis Winston
- Jaxson Dart
It probably should not shock anyone to see the Cowboys have dominated ten years of this series with a 16-4 record and 16-2 over the last nine years:
So, it should come as no shock that the Giants are over it all. That brought them to 63-year-old John Harbaugh who had just coached the Baltimore Ravens for 18 seasons and with it a winning program for nearly two decades long. They won over 60% of their games and went to the playoffs 12 times in that run with a Super Bowl win and three more AFC Championship Games. When he was available, the Giants threw an offer at him that was quite enticing.
Harbaugh signed a five-year contract with the New York Giants in January 2026 worth approximately $20 million per year (about $100 million total), putting him among the NFL’s highest-paid coaches. Reports also noted potential lucrative bonuses and that he reports directly to Giants ownership rather than the general manager.
In other words, it all starts with Harbaugh. He is the new sheriff. Nothing that happened before he got here should be thought of as locked in. He will get his guys in here, but for now, he inherits a team that plans on winning in trenches.
Well, they will be home and they will be optimistic. And here come the Cowboys to start yet another season in NYC. Our excitement levels are high.
Let’s dive in.
These are my Pregame Three Thoughts:
Obviously, when you open a season of optimism – which both franchises have right now with positive vibes and hope in their hearts – the first game seems like more of an internal evaluation than a showdown game. The Cowboys just want to see their new toys in action. The Giants want to really see all of these young faces around this established and respected NFL coach which they have not had for a while.
The game might not feel like a war against a hated rival like it sometimes does because this game is about trying to get out of the gates feeling good about the general direction of a new season.
When Dallas has the ball:
– This one has been on my mind for quite a while and I am sure it has been on the minds of Klayton Adams and Brian Schottenheimer. In this situation and against this opponent, it will be important for the Cowboys to slow down the Giants pass rush with a game-plan that does not require this offensive line to be load-bearing right off the bat. Quick-hitting offense with Dak getting the ball out and using misdirection with on-schedule down and distance to let everyone settle in should be the goal.This is how the Offense will look in 11 personnel and we can see that there is no Tyler Smith at LG. Instead, the capable and abrasive TJ Bass will get the call inside. We like his overall game and think he will be fine. But, there are other elements we don’t think will be fine.
Artwork by Skyler Thiot
In particular, we look at this matchup with Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele against the incredible edge rushers that the Giants now have with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. Then, they have the wonderful prospect and 5th pick Arvell Reese back at off-ball LB and former Top 5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux allowing us to wonder how one team could have that many premium pass rushers. We have no idea how the Giants will use these four rushers, but imagine all four on the field at the same time on 3rd and 8. You can quickly see that not knowing what to expect in Week 1 should give the Giants a chance for an ambush. Defensive Coordinator Dennard Wilson and Harbaugh will have plenty of fun toys to play with.
The questions with the Giants defense is going to be the replacement of big Dexter Lawrence. For years, we would marvel at his ability to destroy things so well at DT for the Giants and at 28, seemed to be the type of transformational player inside that the Cowboys believe Quinnen Williams is. Well, they flipped him to the Bengals for the 10th pick in the draft (who now starts at right guard for the offense) and he will play on a 1-year deal this year in Ohio for $28m and the Cowboys will try some very slight replacements inside like veterans DJ Reader and Shelby Harris.
As a defense that could not stop the run last year – they allowed a league-worst 5.31 yards per carry which was the worst in the NFL since 2022 – you could argue that locking in Dexter at a huge contract for a new coach might seem a bit crazy. So, they didn’t. But, how does subtracting Dexter Lawrence from a ridiculous run defense help improve them?
Well, as we said, the Giants are just starting to build this new image. Harbaugh is going to need some time.
The Giants Defensive Feature Film: No. 0 Brian Burns
Did you know Brian Burns led the NFC in sacks last year? He is awesome and I suggest incredibly underrated – although he was voted No. 14 in the NFL Top 100, so maybe I am just not hearing the chatter.Regardless, I put the film on and man, he is such a player. Here is 72 seconds of what I saw from 2025:
This guy wins and he wins fast. He can smell hesitation in a tackle and uses that against them. He is long, fast, powerful, and sudden. Beware of Brian Burns.
Here is the tale of the tape, but keep in mind these are all 2025 numbers. Do any of them apply? The Cowboys hope so, but with a new season comes a new identity.
Cowboys Offensive Gameplan
For me, you want to run the ball and you want to slow down those edges. Dak needs to get the ball out and they will want to be under center and test that Giants underbelly inside to see if they can hold up against the Cowboys interior when Dallas activates their ground and pound with play-action behind it. Dallas must stay out of 3rd and long and try to slow down the Giants pass rush because it is for real. Being alert and aware will be at a major premium. Once you slow the rush, you can start to get your normal passing game going, but this is not a game to throw caution to the wind early. Be smart and end drives with a kick or a punt. It is a long game.Let’s flip the field now.
When The Giants have the ball:
– More than anything, my thought about this matchup is simple: We cannot wait to see what this defense looks like and all the new pieces they have to play with. What are the strengths and weaknesses and characteristics? Rome will not be built in a day, but the Christian Parker experience has been long-anticipated and it is finally time to see how it works with live ammunition.There. Mike Tyson (and many historians) have told us that, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" and that will again be tested on Sunday.
Dallas will get punched in the mouth and there may even be some early haymakers to get the stadium rocking as Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers (status unclear), and Cam Skattebo try to draw first blood with energy and excitement. You can bet that they will use Dallas energy against itself with deception and misdirection of their own. It will be up to Dallas to remain disciplined and prepared.
Here is how those Giants will line up:
They ran the ball well last year – in a season where almost nothing went well. They have now added plenty of beef, so even though these graphics are 11 personnel vs nickel, we concede that the Harbaugh Ravens never were in 11 personnel and the Giants will mimmick that. They have a huge FB from Baltimore in Patrick Ricard and a TE from Baltimore in Isaiah Likely and I will tell you that 21 and 12 personnel will be a lot of what they do.
Also, they think Jaxson Dart needs to use his legs and I agree. Dart as just a passer is limited because I am not sure he reads defenses terribly well. But, he is quite an athlete and when you put the dual in dual-threat, his resume tape becomes much more impressive.
The Giants Offensive Feature Film: No. 6 Jaxson Dart
I am not sure if this guy is a big-time QB, but I am sure he produces “wow” plays and I think this film will prove it. It will also prove that a QB cannot catch it for them. He puts the ball where it needs to be and his guys seem to drop many of these.The point is to not underestimate him. He can make those plays and put that ball where it needs to be. He also can be tough to catch and keeps plays alive. Can he stay healthy for a season? We have our doubts. This is a physical league and he takes some real hits because he is young and thinks he is invincible. But, his film says that he is not some stiff. He has big time throws and some impressive runs all over that. I would take him seriously.
Now, for the Dallas defense.
I am not sure what else we can say about these guys, because I have spent 50,000 words on them in the last several months. They now begin to write their own reviews by putting it on the field. Yes, there is optimism, but there are also a number of question marks in every direction.
These first few games are against capable offenses, but far from elite. They do not have to be peaking in Week 1, but they do need to build some confidence and continuity and begin their quest for league-average as we look at those 2025 metrics one more time:
The final defensive takeaway is knowing that Christian Parker will never be able to have it said about him again, that “he has never called plays in the NFL” after Sunday. Let’s hope he nails his first huge test. I imagine he has spent years thinking about what he will do and now we will all find out on NBC.
– My last pregame thought is about the importance of a fast start. In 2024 and 2025, this team felt pretty dead by September 22nd. This team needs to be 2-0 heading to Brazil and if they cannot get that done, the looming feeling of “same ol’ Cowboys will return.” I would love to avoid that.
In 2024, that was the evening of the Week 3 home loss to John Harbaugh and Baltimore that sent the Cowboys to 1-2. Dallas beat Cleveland in Week 1 and then returned home for winnable games vs the Saints and Ravens and pretty much got blown out of each of them. The defense was exposed as a joke and the offense had its own issues. They were looking horrid at it was still September.
In 2025, It was September 21st when Dallas was 1-2 after getting hammered by the Chicago Bears. This was one week after barely beating the Russell Wilson Giants and two weeks after losing in Philadelphia in a game they were still dazed from the Micah trade. They lost CeeDee Lamb for a month that day and were already looking overmatched on defense.
So, I ask you, can you get to 2-0 against the Giants and Commanders? Then you feel like the AFC stretch with the Ravens and Texans are a 1-1 stretch where you can be 3-1 after four? Is that too much to ask?
Let’s hope not.
Overall, I am going with Cowboys 27, Giants 17. But, my certainty level is right with everyone else. Who knows?
