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Morning After Week 8 - Did This Just End, Again?
The Cowboys lost another game they simply could not lose and this all feels a bit familiar.
Bob Sturm13 minutes ago
For those of you that are relatively new to the story of the modern-day Dallas Cowboys, we must start here today with a review of a phrase I used to use quite often when describing the state of affairs. I apologize to the old-timers, but after having a night to marinate on this one, it just keeps repeating in my head. It goes like this:
“Nothing ever changes because nothing ever changes.”
Since I believe I came up with the phrase many years ago, I am probably best to explain the meaning of it. At least, I would hope so.
To me, it best describes the Dallas Cowboys and has for years and years, and years. In 2017, it was used to describe another painful end to another painful season and the discussion of who is best to blame for the latest chapter of Cowboys’ nonsense. That day, back in 2017, it appears it was Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Ezekiel Elliott, Dan Bailey, and Jason Garrett. This time, of course, it will be Dak Prescott, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Rashan Gary, Daron Bland, Christian Parker, and Brian Schottenheimer.
The names change, but that is about it. The frustration of the Dallas Cowboys still seems to start and stop with the true architects at the top of the organizational flow chart. In fact, Jerry Jones was shown many times in the game and even appears to have let out a “Schotty!” in anger as things started to go the wrong way with a failed fourth-down call.
He wants to hire a certain type of coach who will conduct himself in a certain type of way. Jerry wants a coach he can coexist with and that usually means a coach that nobody else wanted to hire as head coach and one that won’t value control as much as they value job security. It goes without saying that the type of coach that nobody else wanted to hire and doesn’t want control of the roster is also one that won’t require heavy compensation.
Brian Schottenheimer checks all of those boxes.
Jerry Jones knows this, it’s why he hired him.
He knows that, like Jason Garrett before him, he will have some ideas on how this can all work, convince those around him that they are going to figure this out, and then get down to work. He will give you everything you have, operate with an earnest fire of optimism, and try like heck to restore the Cowboys to the glory of the old days.
But, then games begin. And when the opponents are allowed to say something about these grandiose plans of the upstart and optimistic Cowboys, well, that is when we find out that there are pretty good reasons why successful teams are successful and why everyone else is in a constant state of change.
Jerry Jones wants to win, but he wants to win doing things his way. And yes, here we sit in November of 2026 and his stubbornness has never wavered. He has changed the coaches and the players, but he has never once moved off the premise that it has to be with this type of structure. He must be the general manager – albeit the one who spends the least amount of time actually doing what general managers do – and that he simply doesn’t think coaches matter that much as he famously claimed, “there are 500 coaches who could have won the Super Bowl with our team.”
Jones is a very rich man who has been very successful. Those guys tend to be pretty stubborn and if you thought getting up there in years would humble him a bit into rethinking his positions on all of this, you can obviously think again. He did not interview Ben Johnson for a reason. Heck, he wasn’t even offered a zoom call by this outfit. Both parties knew this was never a fit. Johnson wanted money and control to do what he was tasked to do. Jerry is not interested in hiring coaches that want either. He wants to hire coaches that count it a privilege to have a head coaching job at a place with the history of the Dallas Cowboys. And he wants a coach that lets Jerry be Jerry. Jones insists on being the main character in his own movie. He gets to own his own franchise and be the first guy interviewed when the game ends. He attracts the crowd and people are excited to see him. He is the king.
So, yes, the names do change in our story, but I think the phrase is still quite apt.
“Nothing ever changes because nothing ever changes.”
Now, forgive me. Every time I start an essay about a game like this with a rant like that, some people get pretty angry. They properly point out that Jerry did not call a single play and Jerry did not miss a single tackle. That is correct. So, let’s talk about how the Cowboys lost a game that was so winnable that some might have left the television when it appeared the game was well in hand.
After all, this is an Arizona Cardinals team that had won 3 of its last 22 games entering this contest and would be playing with a squad that is clearly rebuilding and banged up. They have just upset the Los Angeles Rams, but also, the Cowboys would be on red alert because the Cardinals have a way of causing Dallas all sorts of issues, despite Dallas always being a heavy favorite.
In fact, by the end of the day yesterday, Arizona would now have a 5-0 record all time at the Death Star. That is right, the Cardinals have never lost a game at AT&T Stadium, despite that stadium opening in 2009.
Again, the names change, and the winning QBs change, too, but the results stay the same.
Carson Palmer, Kyler Murray, Kyler Murray again, Jacoby Brissett, and now, please welcome backup QB Gardner Minshew, who is out there because Brissett could get nothing going with his anonymous WR group.
Also, we knew star RB Jeremiyah Love was gimpy and when his ankle was rolled up again, his day was done. So, here is back up RB Tyler Allgeier. Tyler is an intriguing backup from Atlanta, but surely we would not see his career-best performance on this fine Sunday afternoon, right?
It is hard to figure out where everything unraveled the most. But, let’s count some ways.
- The offense was very poor in this game and I realize that 30 points will get people deflecting, but there was very little rhythm. A poor day in nearly every single metric from an offense that was given a tilted field with takeaways. They had no explosion, no running success at all, poor third downs, and a wasteful day in the red zone. Worst of all, they had a ridiculous 261 total yards in a game where they enjoyed 13 possessions. That is well below the standard and have won only four games in the last 20 years with that low of a yardage – so roughly once every five years you can get away with that. So, 30 points and all, but far from a passing grade. Once again, playing for field goals caught up to them.
- The defense was atrocious at stopping the run. Arizona averaged 96 yards rushing entering this game, but peeled off 202 on this day at an average of 7.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys defense has now given up 200+ yards in consecutive home games against teams that had no real choice but to run against them. This time it was mostly Allgeier who only had 11 carries but managed 147 by himself. On his two runs alone, he was impossible to tackle. The 63-yard touchdown went through Caleb Downs, Otito Ogbonnia, Malik Hooker, PJ Locke, Cobie Durant, Malik Hooker (again) and then Daron Bland was sort of carried over the goal-line. On his next run – literally the very next time he is handed the ball – he runs for 52 more! The number of players who did not do their job on that simple power sweep is almost too numerous to name, but special credit goes to Rashan Gary, Malik Hooker, and Shemar James for completely caving in and giving almost no resistance whatsoever on that entire side of the field. Caleb Downs is bounced off the turf like a basketball by the Arizona center, Hjalte Froholdt, who is 20 yards downfield when the two square off. It was all too brutal to believe that they could concede a 63 and a 52 yard carry on consecutive reps, but this is the Cowboys defense. Again, the names change, but whether it is Dan Quinn, Mike Zimmer, Matt Eberflus, or Christian Parker, all of their defenses have proven multiple times that they cannot stop the run to save their lives.
- The stupidity of the Rashan Gary is completely inexcusable and may have cost Dallas this entire game. With 2:23 left in the 4th Quarter and Dallas leading 27-17, the game is at about 98% win probability for the Cowboys. The Cardinals need Dallas to do them a favor and on 3rd and 10, Minshew overthrows rookie Reggie Virgil on a post that might cost Virgil a broken collarbone due to his collision with the actual post. But, the throw is gone and Rashan Gary, noted as a strong veteran presence on this defense, goes helmet to helmet on Minshew for an obvious and clear personal foul that might even be a straight head butt. I have no idea what he was thinking and while we know it is a game of emotion, at some point the adults in the room need to send a message to the team about what is going to be acceptable and what is not. This – based on the other moments of poor play from Gary – is enough to get a healthy scratch or something even more severe for this absurdly selfish moment. You simply cannot have this at this critical moment of a critical game. It is not winning football.
- Brian Schottenheimer has lost the plot and continuously on Sunday seemed to simply not believe in his own offense again. We can debate the wisdom of having a QB who is 240 pounds not just sneaking a 4th and 1, but rather handing it off to Javonte Williams who is seven yards behind him. But, we cannot debate the play call at 2:02 left in the game and the Cowboys clinging to a 27-24 lead. It is 2nd and 10 and the Cardinals know you are likely to pass because the 2-minute warning is coming. Dallas goes to 22 personnel which means spots for James Mitchell and Hunter Luepke along with Spann-Ford and Ryan Flournoy. The Cowboys want a play-action pass to Spann-Ford, but the Cardinals are not fooled for even a moment and nobody is open, which results in a sack. To run a play that critical without CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens even as decoys reminds me of his overthinking at the end of the game in Brazil where he told his QB to throw the ball in the stands if his one read was covered. Are we going for the wins or are we scared of our own 11-year starting QB?
- The defense’s pass defense caved in on the final two touchdown throws from Minshew. Both appear to be against Cover 4 which is the most common split-field coverage they run. And both times, the split-field safeties are completely blowing their coverage. On the touchdown to Trey McBride, it appears PJ Locke is lost in space and on the touchdown to Michael Wilson, it would be Alijah Clark that bites on the route outside. Both times, the Cardinals receivers don’t even have to win contested catches. They are just wide open for their QB to find against air. How are we in Week 8 and the safeties don’t understand their assignments? The indictments on the Christian Parker defense continue to flood us from all directions.
- After the Cardinals try to allow you the game with their amazing missed extra point, the QB had one shot from his own 35-yard line with 0:06 left and a timeout. With 5 seconds to work, they simply needed to give Brandon Aubrey a shot. They probably needed 15 yards and the chances weren’t great, but they also weren’t zero. Dak throws the ball to Brevyn Spann-Ford which is not a bad idea, but CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are better ones. Particularly Lamb who appears to be available and also frustrated that Dak went to the big TE who was unable to make the catch. This is surely nitpicking, but I don’t understand why you wouldn’t be using Spann-Ford as a decoy and go to the player who has caught literally hundreds of critical passes at that distance over the years. It seems like a good time to use the $100m pairing for the one pass to give your kicker a chance. What is Dak doing there against a 3-man rush? Just add it to the list.
- Finally, you go to overtime and win the toss. You decide to kick, despite your defense giving up in the last four drives, in order: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, and touchdown. The head coach, who should now be on the thinnest of thin ice, opts to once again count on his defense. To our shock, the defense does get a stop! But, by the time Arizona kicks the winning field goal, they have had two possessions and you have had just one in an overtime where you actually won the toss. As an analytics expert, allow me to point out that two is always better than one, no matter the reasoning used to arrive at the opposite answer.
Both losses feel like catastrophic events, but to pair them together feels like the beginning of the end for the Brian Schottenheimer era. They will likely finish this season on the outside of the playoff race and when they do, he will need to be fired. You cannot have this group of players in their primes and miss the playoffs in both of your years coaching this team. There was no rebuild here. They were going for it and they absolutely have failed so far.
He is now 0-7 following wins aside from that small streak last November. He is now 10-14-1 in 25 games as the Dallas Head Coach. The defense might actually be worse than it was last year, despite all the investment. Both men in charge of the offense and defense seem both stubborn and scared. Both seem trying to protect their job by carefully making things worse.
There is no confidence or swagger. There is head-shaking and bed-wetting.
This loss feels as bad as it gets. But, it also feels oddly familiar. We will sacrifice more sacrificial lambs, no doubt, but up there in the owner’s box, our owner insists that his GM cosplay continues.
The fiddle plays. The franchise ages. The names change.
The plot twists don’t.
“Nothing ever changes because nothing ever changes.”
