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Decoding Schotty Week 4 - CeeDee is Unstoppable
The Cowboys have a weapon they use in all sorts of ways and Houston had no ideas left.
Bob Sturm38 minutes ago
Here we go. Our objectives for today:
- Overall Offensive Evaluation - Win in Houston
- The absurd CeeDee Lamb
- The Cowboys vs the Houston pass rush
- Tyler Guyton continues his great work
- Depending too much on Brandon Aubrey
- Look at plenty of All-22 film and see what we can see.
OVERALL OFFENSIVE EVALUATION
Once they got going on Sunday, the Cowboys showed that they are well among the industry’s best right now at offensive football. They were able to score 34 points again and this is now the third successive week they have broken the 30 points barrier – and for a second successive week it was against an objectively good defense.Doing this to the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans confirm what we knew this summer: Dallas can win a Super Bowl right now with this offense. And now they add Tyler Smith back to the action, who some argue is their best offensive player. I would not do that – since he plays on an offense with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but I get what they are saying. Tyler Smith should be an upgrade.
The Cowboys were in the green numbers all across the board in this one – which is remarkable given that the offense looked pretty “stuck in the mire” for a great deal of the first half. But, look at the numbers and we will see a full performance that is where you want to be in just about every metric we keep.
If you can get to 34 points, 399 yards, and 28 first downs, then you are going to win almost every game – especially with zero turnovers – regardless of your defense. To prove that, the Cowboys are 7-1 all-time when they hit those two thresholds. The one loss – as it always seems to be with this type of database search – is that Thanksgiving Day game in 1998 vs Randy Moss and the Vikings.
But, that is what we saw on Sunday: An offensive clinic. Yet, they barely won and they needed every point to get it done.
As you can see, the number of Cowboys QBs who have had these days is quite a list, right?
- Dak Prescott - 4
- Don Meredith - 2
- Troy Aikman - 1
- Danny White - 1
But, that is not how the game started.
The initial game plan was to carefully tip-toe into the game. They were being cautious and careful. They were using max-protect and getting the ball out quick. They were trying to establish the run and be methodical without a whole lot of risk. But, that was playing into Houston’s hands. They were happy to see cautious Dallas and seemed to have them in a vice before halftime.
To get anywhere on Sunday, they had to open up the offense and take some risk.
So, the max-protect slowed down. The running in running situations backed off. The Cowboys started acting like a team that thought they could not be stopped. And I think – judging by the drive chart below – that we clearly see the proceeds from this disposition adjustment at the half pay off by repeated touchdowns when the game was on the line.
Dallas started bossing the Texans defense and they didn’t like it very much. The four best drives of the day all happened after the half and we dare say they were very close to going 5-for-5 after the intermission (we will prove it below).
Dallas has scored 65 points in the last two weeks without the benefit of a home game or a soft opponent. That is such an indication of proof of concept. They are good and now they are showing it.
The absurd CeeDee Lamb
A few years ago, I tried to compare the budding chemistry of Dak and CeeDee to what I had watched in Green Bay for years with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. When a superb QB and an outstanding WR get on the same page, it becomes unstoppable. They are running the scheme of the total offense, but then tailoring it for those unique spots where they sort of run their own micro-version of the offense with just each-other knowing what the other is thinking.They have played seven seasons together (I believe 75 games now) and the relationship continues to improve with what they can accomplish together. The way they combined in that second half was masterful and they did it with ease. They also had an outstanding defense running in circles and as frustrated as they can be.
Dak Prescott’s Next Gen Throw Chart
I mean, again, Dak is doing some masterful things. He is in complete control of the game and the offense. I hope everyone who loves this franchise is starting to update their thoughts of this QB because he is at his highest level ever. His progress has continued and I think some people still have their 2017 or 2019 takes and now confirmation bias is keeping them from seeing this. But, he is right there with some of the very best QBs in this league now and I love that for him because he has worked hard and stayed focused. He has not let the noise derail him, but admittedly still knows January is his hurdle to jump.
Lamb vs Houston
Josh put this reel together and it really shows how the Cowboys are using him all over. They have him in the slot. They have him solo by himself. They have him in stacks and bunches and move him all over. This is really good deployment and then Dak is putting the ball where it needs to be.
Lamb can truly do it all.
And here is his Next Gen route chart.
Let’s just say he probably slept well. What an exhausting day of football.
Tyler Guyton continues his great work
The film below will show it wasn’t an easy day, but it was another wonderful day of the left tackle Guyton taking a major step forward in 2026.We wrote plenty this summer about the critical nature of his progress and how it can take this offense to the next level.
I know it is early – four games does not a season make – but Tyler Guyton has looked remarkable in his 3rd season. Take a look at the PFF numbers for each season including this partial start.
Those numbers are magnificent, especially since we can’t recall him costing the Cowboys a critical sack this season. He has been so good and remember, he hasn’t had a snap with his buddy Tyler Smith next to him. Yet. What a start.
Depending too much on Brandon Aubrey
One last item and then to film.I think the Cowboys have to stop depending on Brandon Aubrey’s long-distance kicks unless it is an absolute necessity. They are so in love with 60 yarders that I think it is actually hurting their productivity.
The man has missed 6 of his last 7 long kicks and very few have been a last resort. Yes, two have been blocked, but that is part of the risk. Then, Houston and Baltimore take over at midfield against this defense and get free points.
I like Brandon Aubrey, but they have to stop with this nonsense of thinking he never misses. He actually seems to miss frequently from absurd distances like they seem to be trying more and more.
Please go for it. Your offense is so good. Kicking from the 59-yard line is not the same as Dak and CeeDee just converting another make-or-break play.
FILM STUDY
Lots of film today (as usual). Here we go. We’ve got 19 plays and we pretty much ignored the first Quarter.2Q - 15:00 - 3-6-HST 45 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to HST 37 for 8 yards (R.Blankenship).
Ok, this is 3rd and manageable, but the Texans are going to push it with a blitz. Dak has to get the ball out and they put Pickens and Lamb on the left together. This is obviously to isolate defenders in space and to identify that there is no help for 5-Pitre against Lamb. If Dak gets the ball out and puts it on target, Lamb just has to make Pitre miss. Pitre is a very good player, but this is asking a ton. Lamb moves the chains.
2Q - 9:44 - 2-8-DAL 33 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [J.Clowney]. PENALTY on DAL-D.Prescott, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 33.
This is to show you what a lot of the 1st half looked like. The Texans use a 4-man rush because they have animals up front. This is exactly the 49ers in those playoff games in 2021-2022. They rush 4 and cover with 7 so nobody is ever open. Dak tries to give the routes time, but the 4 animals are closing in fast and the protection is not going to hold up. This is the issue with dealing with these guys and why you can’t really pass when they are expecting pass. 51-Anderson and 90-Clowney are so active. I really wish we kept Clowney after watching this game.
2Q - 5:02 - 4-11-HST 44 - B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (W.Anderson)
I normally don’t do much with special teams, but I did want to show you the chaos and the reason why I don’t advise field goals from this distance unless you have no choice. I think here you have to punt the ball, but they tried the 62-yarder. Will Anderson breaks through what appears to be the gap between 66-Bass and 77-Jones and honestly, with the ball coming out low (so it can travel that far), I am not sure how well you can hold these dudes off in this situation. Nobody wants blocks, but that is Will Anderson and it just takes a spotless operation to pull this off. And it was definitely not spotless.
2Q - 1:29 - 1-10-HST 41 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Williams to HST 36 for 5 yards (K.Murray).
Here is not play-action, but the pump of the shoulders from Dak makes the zone corners jump. This is not where he was looking, but he made 24-Stingley jump and Lamb might have a touchdown here at the bottom of the screen if Dak is looking his way. I am sure they comeback to these double moves because they see where these zone corner’s eyes are all day. They jump those shoulder pumps.
2Q - 1:17 - 3-7-HST 38 - D.Prescott sacked at HST 47 for -9 yards (sack split by W.Anderson and D.Hunter).
Look how insane this is to try to pass on 3rd and long. 4-man rush with 51-Anderson, 55-Hunter, and 90-Clowney just absolutely destroying things. The Texans are in 2-man and the QB is trying to keep things alive. But the chaos is absurd and nobody seems open. It is a very tough way to live and one thing the Cowboys struggled with on Sunday was 3rd downs. You cannot survive trying to convert 3rd and long against these guys. Got to pass on early downs and stay away from 3rd and long. This is a sack you can’t take, but it also was a sack that was tough to avoid.
Halftime and the adjustments were made….
3Q - 13:40 - 1-10-HST 38 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to HST 8 for 30 yards (K.Lassiter; C.Bullock).
From yesterday’s piece:
The only thing I would add is keep an iso-camera on 50-Kenneth Murray. Tell me that doesn’t look familiar from 2025 in Dallas? I think his controller got unplugged again on the play-action as he doesn’t move.
3Q - 13:00 - 1-8-HST 8 - J.Williams left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This run is so beautiful. Downblock from Spann-Ford and Guyton tried but got knocked off from friendly fire. But, here comes 66-Bass and 56-Beebe out in front of Williams and it is great stuff. Heck, look at Booker get his man turned on the backside! This is greatness right here. What a run and now it is Williams vs Murray to the goal-line and I know who I am taking there.
3Q - 10:43 - 1-10-DAL 36 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to G.Pickens to HST 11 for 53 yards (K.Lassiter).
Then here is that other big play from yesterday’s piece as the Cowboys start aggressively attacking 1st and 10:
3Q - 6:59 - 4-3-HST 3 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to R.Flournoy (J.Pitre) [W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HST-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at HST 3 - No Play.
I just want to show you this play to emphasize the opportunity on 4th down. Dak is locked in on Lamb and Houston is not having it. If Dak would have come back to Flournoy, he is open, but Dak’s eyes are not there yet. But, the point is that the NFL clearly assists offenses in these situations and you can draw a penalty which gives a full set of downs. It happens often enough that sometimes you need to add that to your probabilities. It is Pickens who draws the penalty down here and it is definitely a hold.
3Q - 6:54 - 1-1-HST 1 - J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
This is a power run from a team that is getting pretty good at it. Run behind Tyler Booker and Cooper Beebe seems like a good plan, indeed. This is also another one for the Brevyn Spann-Ford reel. My goodness man! That is Danielle Hunter who he is messing with. Javonte runs like his life depends on it down here, too. I think these guys are figuring out the run game and here comes Tyler Smith back in the fold.
3Q - 2:29 - 3-1-DAL 39 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to C.Lamb to HST 45 for 16 yards (C.Bullock).
Pass in running situations and run in passing situations is the only way to live in the NFL as a top offense. 3rd and 1 and the Cowboys know that the Texans expect a power run. Dallas sells it with 12 personnel, but this is where the secondary will not have many bodies. This is why Dak and Lamb make the big bucks. They make this look so easy and let me tell you, that isn’t easy what they did right there.
3Q - 0:25 - 3-7-HST 42 - D.Prescott pass short middle to R.Flournoy to HST 33 for 9 yards (C.Bullock; J.Hansen).
Now, Houston is getting annoyed. Time for a very exotic blitz look and stacking CeeDee with Flournoy right behind them. This is how you know Dak is playing his best football. He knows that Lamb will have everyone’s attention and a quick jump pass to Flournoy will move the chains again and extend this drive. He knows the answers to the test. Elite QB play here.
4Q - 14:00 - 2-18-HST 41 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to HST 20 for 21 yards (R.Blankenship; J.Hansen).
2nd and 18. Another blitz look and now you just spread them out and fire it to your elite weapon and just let him operate in space. He is too good for your defenders.
4Q - 12:42 - 2-10-HST 20 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to HST 20 for 21 yards (R.Blankenship; J.Hansen).
Here is the best way to annoy defenses. Put CeeDee in the slot, use play-action to affect the defender by him and then let him feast. Great design, too, because Beebe and Steele are out there so this is not at all some individual idea. They are using the motion of the fake to set Houston up for a trap. It is well conceived.
4Q - 7:55 - 3-8-DAL 33 - D.Prescott pass short middle to H.Luepke to DAL 35 for 2 yards (J.Pitre) [W.Anderson].
This is the one drive they didn’t score upon in the 2nd half and as you can see, this is a 67 yard touchdown if Dak gets better protection from Terence Steele. But, as you know, 51-Anderson is one of the very best in the NFL. But, tell me George Pickens doesn’t have a touchdown here. Instead, they are really lucky it wasn’t a total disaster. But, Kamari Lassiter is barbecue chicken vs Pickens up top.
And now, the final make-or-break drive.
4Q - 1:34 -4-4-DAL 32 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (C.Bullock).
It is 4th down. If they don’t get this, it is game over. This design is pretty rare and might not even be fully correct because you seldom see a route concept where both players are running roughly the same route. But, man, he fits it in on Ferguson as they conflict 35-Jake Hansen. Huge conversion and I think that was a great design or a happy accident. Either way, the game is extended.
4Q - 1:12 - 2-10-DAL 39 -D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb to HST 46 for 15 yards (J.Pitre).
This is a big-time throw and PFF scored it as much. This is a Cover 6 rep and the Texans are definitely shading to Lamb. But, that doesn’t stop Dak at all and he puts a beautiful pass on Lamb right over the fingertips of 24-Derek Stingley, Jr. They were sitting on this 36-yard throw and he still fit it in there perfectly. Just genius work in the final minute of a huge game! Oh, and CeeDee Lamb runs a beauty.
4Q - 0:52 - 1-10-HST 34 - D.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens pushed ob at HST 12 for 22 yards (R.Blankenship).
You know they were coming back to the double-move when they needed it. This time the protection holds up and they find Pickens for a quick 22 yards as Lassiter takes the double-move. This is not the exact same play, but as you can see, Pickens and Dak talked about running it back on the sideline and boy did they hit this one beautifully. You have to love it.
4Q - 0:43 - 2-10-HST 12 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Finally, here is the death blow and they made it look easy. Houston is now trying to save the day with a stand. Cowboys are getting Cover 1 and now we see CeeDee back in the slot where if they are going to try to play man, then Lamb will be against a safety in 5-Pitre. I love Pitre, but he is not a corner and Lamb will cook him without a safety. Now, if you are Houston, you know how much Dak loves Ferguson on the seam in the red zone, but you also have to know that Lamb has been killing you. They have a single high safety and he goes to help on Ferg and that is not the right decision. Pitre is outside leverage on Lamb and this turns into a glorified practice rep as Pitre expects help and gets none so Dak and Lamb stick the sword in their chest without much resistance. Ballgame (provided they don’t screw up the Hail Mary. LOL).
What a win and what a performance from this offense. They are doing what they said they would do and it is only getting better by adding Tyler Smith.
