Sturm: Decoding Schotty – The Free Fall of the Offense

[dpf1123]

Decoding Schotty – The Free Fall of the Offense​

They don’t seem close to what they were promised to be and resemble the mess of 2012.​

Bob Sturm




Here we go. Our objectives for today –

• Overall Offensive Evaluation - Failure in Green Bay
• What the heck is wrong with this offense?
• The predictability problems are escalating.
• Dak’s Day was poor once again.
• Look at plenty of All-22 film and see what we can see.

Let’s dive in!

Offensive Evaluation – Green Bay​

It certainly doesn’t take the eyes of Bill Walsh to see how bad the Cowboys offense was on Sunday night in Green Bay. This one was ugly early, got progressively worse when turnovers were mixed in, and then had an entire 2nd half to show us the adjustments and the fixes – of which impressed us much.

Things are bad right now; there is no way to sugarcoat this thing. It is a rough scene when you believed you had a great coaching staff, only to then discover that they seldom seem to win the Xs and Os from the headsets during a game where things take a turn. These are the brains from which we hope to see solutions emerge, but the Cowboys don’t seem to have many counters right now on either side of the ball and it means that if the initial battles go a certain way, then there is seldom 2nd half deviation.

What the heck is wrong with this offense?​

In this particular game, the Packers defense watched the Tampa Bay tape and decided to screw with the Cowboys offense with a very similar tactic. We will call it “7-across” and while that may not be the team’s terminology, I like to keep it simple. It simply means – as the picture below will show – that there are seven defenders across the line of scrimmage. At times it was a mug-front with both LBs stepping up. Other times it was edge DB’s. Sometimes it was a full-fledged blitz and many other times it was a bluff.



Either way, it was intended to take the game to the Cowboys offense. The goal of these defenses is to attack so that an offense is too busy defending itself to attack you, if that makes sense. If you can suffocate an offense’s oxygen, as it were, then they are trying to just survive, rather than attack you. And that seems to work very well against the Cowboys.

We have seen this forever. It honestly goes back to Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan, Mike McCarthy, and now Brian Schottenheimer. It usually accompanies a situation where Dallas is unable to run the ball. If you can take that “firing forward” physical play from an offense and make them retreat and back-pedal, then you can throw off everything and make it almost look like panic. I thought The Athletic Football Show podcast this week did a very nice job describing it as they discussed “the worst version of the Cowboys offense.”

Make Dallas play offense in a defensive manner. When they do, they are required to push back or it will only continue. You must burn this posture with chunk plays and Dallas had none in the first 58 minutes. You must prove you can handle it or you only get it more.

Tampa Bay got away with it so it encouraged Green Bay. Now, the whole league will see this as the thing that gives Dallas fits. Expect more of this until Dallas shoves back. It comes down to the basic choice: Play careful defense against Dallas and they will rip you to shreds. Attack them and they will turtle. Take away their space. Suffocate them.

And right now, the Cowboys have no answers. It isn’t hard to prove.



Almost no positive numbers on the board above. Ironically, the one that gets the green is the running game. They didn’t try to run the ball much at all, but when they did it actually found some level of success. But, everything in the red is not going to cut it.

• 13 points and 0 in the 1st half.
• 303 yards and only 107 in the 1st half.
• 2 giveaways - both in the 1st half.
• 1 chunk play during garbage time.
• 4.3 yards per play, 4.6 yards per pass attempt.
• Efficiency on 3rd down and in the red zone was not good enough to save them.

The production was brutally bad. If you simply take the premise of 13 points and 303 yards and then add in losing the turnover battle with a “-1”, here is the historic trend.

There have been 45 games like this in Cowboys history and they are now 1-44.



That is pretty amazing, right? 45 games and just a win in 1998 at home against Philadelphia, 13-9. I truthfully cannot recall anything about that game. But, 1-44 shows you that this is not a way to win.

Here is another indicator of the issues of trying to win with fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have now lost 35 straight games in which they don’t score 20 points. 20 was not going to be enough on Sunday, but this team has not won since 2018 without getting to at least 20 points.



So, yes, the defense has its own problems, but just so we understand the reality here. This football team will not win ugly. They must get points as they will not win a pitcher’s duel more than once a decade or so.

The predictability problems are escalating.​

Here are the issues that are starting to emerge. Dallas is too predictable. That starts with the fact that nobody throws the ball more than Dallas on a percentage basis. Dallas is 70.4% pass right now that very easily leads the league. Nobody else is over 67% and the NFL average is 60.8%.

Also, Dallas is 30th in motion and 32nd in motion at the snap. 32nd! They are league-average in play-action, but they are becoming static and predictable. They spend all day in shotgun, they basically give up on the run, and decide they will run their 2-minute offense the entire game.

When that happens, I don’t care who your QB is. It is not in any way a recipe for success and we have seen it before. 2012 was just like this. They were doing this with Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten. They were productive at times, exciting at times, but in the end they were 8-8 and mediocre. And now, it is happening again and Schottenheimer had better pull out of this rut quickly.

That 2012 season they were 3rd in passing yards and attempts and 31st in rushing yards and attempts. This year they are 2nd in passing attempts and 6th in yards. 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. This cannot be sustained.

Dak’s Day was poor once again.​

Prescott, like Romo before him, can only do so much in this setting. Now, nobody is trying to shield him from blame, because like Romo before him, he probably is influencing a great deal of this. We like to blame the coaches because nobody buys their jerseys, but QB1s in this league are often co-coordinators if they have a decade of running things. I am talking about the moment when the game-plan is flushed and they turn to the steady diet of shotgun 11 personnel and every play is a pass. Here is the chart:



As you can see, the more you pass, the more they blitz. The more they blitz, the quicker you have to get the ball out so you don’t get hit. The more you get the ball out fast, the less verticality your offense has. It is once big problem that results in this – 54 pass attempts, but less than 5 yards per attempt. Nothing dangerous and no way to punish them into backing off.

Green Bay called 20 blitzes and bluffed probably 20 more.

They need more solutions, but like in 2012, there aren’t that many unless you commit to a more balanced offense and stay composed longer. Dallas has come undone the last two weeks and there is so much blame to go around.

To prove it, let’s look at the film.

FILM STUDY​

Here we go. 14 plays with most of it from that 1st half where the game was lost. Down 17-0 coming out in the 3rd quarter puts you in way too deep a hole to expect any threat.

1Q - 13:44 - 3-4-DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass short right to R.Flournoy to DAL 47 for 7 yards (K.Nixon) [X.McKinney].​

If you are Green Bay DC Jonathan Gannon and you want to send a message to Dallas about your plans for this game, here it is. We are one minute into the night and Dallas has a 3rd and medium. Green Bay has a 7-man blitz called and is Cover 0 behind it. That is the riskiest thing you can do, because one broken tackle could go all the way. But, you also show Dallas you are ready to risk it all. Dak gets nailed quickly by 29-Xavier McKinney, but he gets the ball to 19-Flournoy just as fast and the Cowboys convert. First down. But, ominous signs of what is ahead.

1Q - 12:01 - 3-4-GB 47 - D.Prescott pass short right to J.Williams to GB 47 for no gain (E.Williams; B.Cox).​

Here is the next one a few plays later. Here, Green Bay does not blitz, but they are going to play press on Pickens to try to take the slant away. Prescott finds Javonte Williams in the flat, but there is no room. This is the moment where Schottenheimer sends on the punt team and I hated that call. You are on their side of the field and if you are going to show Green Bay you aren’t scared to challenge them right back, I think you have to go for it. Dallas was very careful and that only encouraged the home side.

1Q - 2:52 - 3-12-DAL 30 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to C.Lamb.​

2nd drive for Dallas and a 1st and 20 (two penalties) becomes a 3rd and 12. Got to stay out of 3rd and long, but I think CeeDee Lamb can convert here if Dak makes a better throw. 33-Williams is a free runner and Prescott is trying to throw into the blitz, but the location is poor and the ball is incomplete so for the 2nd drive in a row, it is time to punt. Not the start you need here at all.

1Q - 0:43 - 3-3-GB 35 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to GB 19 for 16 yards (J.Bullard).​

3rd and short on the 3rd drive and this is right after the Cowboys intercepted Jordan Love. This will be the final snap of the 1st quarter. 5-man pressure with Cover 1 behind it. That means Lamb vs a safety in the right slot (7-Bullard), and Lamb makes easy work of it as Dak has time to find him and puts a nice throw on it. Now, this drive is cooking and this is a very nice solution, but staying in 3rd and short is also a massive key.

2Q - 14:28 - 2-8-GB 17 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to C.Lamb (B.Cisse) [Z.Franklin].​

I don’t know how much time you spend on “Football Twitter”, but this is the new trend we are seeing from so many defenses and it is called “4-weak” pressures. What it means is we see your alignment and will send 4 guys to your weak side (opposite the TE). The idea is that the DT who is on the outside shoulder of Booker the RG will go inside to the A-Gap to tie up Booker and Beebe. From there, the edge gets Steele wide. Now, you have two blitzers hitting the hole between Booker and Steele and that leaves Javonte Williams to try to take two guys. He has no chance. Whichever guy he chooses leaves the other one free. That means the LB 44-Franklin is able to nail Dak in the ribs without really being touched. Dak gets the ball out and it has a chance, but falls incomplete and the QB is in some significant pain. Which leads us to the next play…

2Q - 14:23 - 3-8-GB 17 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB 3. E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (J.Ferguson).​

OK, the play of the game for me. Dallas has 3rd and 8 and Dak is looking like he is in some real pain. We can wonder if a timeout here might have been a great idea. The stadium is rocking and Dallas needs points here and wants to tie the game at 7-7. Green Bay has 7 men up and are showing blitz, but they are bluffing. They will not be blitzing at all. 33-Williams is on the wide edge and is actually playing split-deep safety in a Cover 4. But, it is really disguised so that Dak won’t see it until it is too late. Now, Dak Prescott is the QB and responsible for his decisions and this interception will go on his ledger. I just want to say that sometimes the other team makes a call that is special and to ask Evan Williams (who we had in our game preview as a very impressive player) to circle back during the play and come from the opposite side to take away the post before Lamb catches what will be a touchdown is just some exceptional NFL defense. You won’t see that stuff on Saturdays. This is what makes this league so difficult. Gannon knew the tendencies and sprung the trap play. Dak fell into it, but most QBs would probably have done the same thing. Such a tough look.

2Q - 5:34 - 2-1-DAL 37 - D.Prescott pass short middle to B.Spann-Ford to 50 for 13 yards (X.McKinney).​

Whoa, what is this? Under center and a play-action fake on a wide zone right with a rollout left that provides some easy yardage? I guess they did call a few of these in this spot and the predictable easy gains were available. Is Spann-Ford becoming a bigger part of the offense? Let’s keep an eye on it, but we continue to love his ability and we just didn’t see enough “easy” on Sunday.

2Q - 3:04 - 1-10-GB 39 - D.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens to GB 23 for 16 yards (E.Williams).​

Good job here by Dak to side-step a sack as the Packers stunt gets home with 51-Dennis-Sutton slipping through Steele. Then, against the Cover 2, Pickens and Flournoy put 2-Cisse in a conflict and when Cisse grabs the flat, this allows Pickens space and a target for Prescott. This drive is starting to cook a bit and maybe they can get it to 10-7 here now that they are down to the 23.

2Q - 2:24 - 1-10-GB 23 - T.Goodson right end to GB 14 for 9 yards (I.McDuffie; X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23 - No Play.​

This pitch right to Tyler Goodson shows his speed to the edge and it looked pretty solid, but 19-Flournoy holds 7-Bullard, and it puts them back to a 1st and 20. Flournoy just lost his leverage and the call really hurt. That was about the last real rushing attempt we would see for a while.

2Q - 2:00 - 1-15-GB 28 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by B.Cisse at GB 18. B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (G.Pickens).​

There were a few things that said it might not be the Cowboys night. We have the Dee Winters being touched by Matthew Golden’s hand, George Pickens’ sleeve out of bounds, and CeeDee falling for no good reason. This one is a killer because you are likely assured points here and 10-7 was possible. Instead, it would very soon be 17-0 and the game would be very close to over by halftime. Rough scene and a real question about the shoe selection of this team again.

3Q - 12:25 - 4-2-GB 38 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (B.Cisse).​

Down 17-0 and with a win probability at right around 10%, you are definitely going for every 4th and reasonable (thank goodness they didn’t run out a FG from deep). This is a motion into a tight release where CeeDee can use Flournoy to get free from Cisse and Dak delivers a nice throw in the window where Lamb is on the run and finds space nicely. 17 yards and it directly leads to the touchdown run by Williams.

4Q - 13:33 - 4-2-50 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to C.Lamb (J.Bullard).​

4th down chance early in the 4th quarter and a stack release for Lamb and Flournoy again that runs Lamb to the quick-out at the sticks. Problem here is that it is about the only choice for Prescott on a sprint-out and 7-Bullard is sitting on it and is nearly able to pick-6 that thing back to the house. He cannot quite get to that interception but bats it away and that is pretty much the last gasp of the game. Ferguson stays in, but on 4th and 2, we need easier solutions. He is always looking for Lamb, so we need to deter defenders from jumping every predictable route to CeeDee.

4Q - 7:44 - 1-10-GB 43 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for J.Mingo INTERCEPTED by C.Valentine at GB 34. C.Valentine to DAL 45 for 21 yards (T.Guyton).​

Mingo is in for Pickens and this is a comeback to 18-Mingo. Dak is dealing with 90-Van Ness breaking through as Tyler Smith looks slow to recognize it and the throw is late for another interception. But, the officials decided to call this roughing the passer and the Cowboys escape with no damage done. Very much a ridiculous penalty, but they will take it here.

4Q - 5:05 - 4-11-GB 14 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to C.Lamb.​

4th and 11 and the Cowboys need 16 points. Gannon is going to run one more Cover 0 blitz and here comes 44-Franklin again to try to hit Dak one last time. By now, the defeat is pretty much set in stone and Prescott’s feet never stop back-pedaling. This is a concession throw if there ever was one as it is intended for nobody and never has a chance. He will live to fight another day.

---

Well, that was rough. The Cowboys coaches need solutions for these pressures and the protection should not be this complicated. The linemen are actually not losing 1-on-1 battles, but it is simple assignments that are either being blown or they are simply being out-schemed.

Should Schottenheimer give up his play-calling? Could Klayton Adams do better? This is very poor tape all around and so was last week. The offense appears in disarray and this is a critical crossroads where we might be seeing the end of a coach’s run if solutions do not appear post-haste.

Tomorrow, we look at the defense, but the offense is the hope of the Cowboys. The offense must lead them and they must be way better than this.

Just unacceptable from all involved.