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DCC 4Life
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Decoding Schotty – A Poor Night For Prescott
Dallas needed their top players to be their top players, and they came up short.
Bob Sturm
Here we go. Our objectives for today –
- Overall Offensive Evaluation - vs Tampa Bay
- Absolutely Inexcusable Offensive Effort
- Dak Prescott Had a Real Stinker
- Is the Blitz Working Against GOTI?
- Look at plenty of All-22 film and see what we can see.
Overall Offensive Evaluation – Tampa Bay
One reason we do this series and its defensive brother is to help explain how complex and beautiful this football is. When coaches talk about “all three phases,” they aren’t lying. Quality football teams have to be good on offense, defense, and special teams if they desire to fulfill their potential and promise. A shortfall in any of those categories can relegate the squad to never achieving what is possible.Now, we know that you cannot build three equal units and we also know that the rules of the sport suggest that if you have a dollar, you should spend a great deal of it on your offense because offenses can carry a team. Then, inside that expenditure, we recommend you find those premium players at premium positions because they can affect the offense’s performance much more. But, they also cost the most. Why? Scarcity, of course. They always have the ball and there are not enough special QBs to go around.
Part of that incredible expenditure on QB is the expectation that he won’t have bad nights. Now, almost every QB will have nights where they can’t put the ball where they want to put it, decision-making needs to be consistent no matter what, but there are nights where the best pitchers cannot find the strike zone like they want. You just hope that he can still win with poor command on a given night.
But, this was not that night. The defense was its normal level of disappointing. The running game would offer no other path to victory. The special teams turned the ball over. This thing sinks or swims with Dak Prescott looking elite and on Thursday he definitely did not deliver that.
There are some readers of this newsletter that sarcastically imply that I never say it is Dak’s fault and that we protect him too much. Well, this is your lucky day. Dak Prescott not only snapped at a heckler in the tunnel on Thursday, but he did so coming off the field from about as bad a throwing night as we have seen from him in a long time. He was very poor.
And because of that, and obviously because almost nobody was there to help, this offense could get nothing done:
Those three red numbers are the fast path to death. The 16 points is a big failing grade. Less than 21 time of possession is a result of the entire team, but Dallas had five different drives where they did absolutely nothing in the second and third quarters. And yes, three turnovers. One was Turpin on the kick return, but the interception that seemed on Flournoy, the interception that is on Ferguson, and the turnover on downs which might have been Dak’s worst throw of the night were all incredibly rough. You simply cannot win like that.
Absolutely Inexcusable Offensive Effort
So, they score 16 points, with three turnovers and less than 21 minutes of possession.Did you know that there have been only five examples of this in Cowboys history? And did you know there have been zero games like this since Anthony Wright started in Baltimore (the Darren Woodson played with a broken arm game) in 2000?
The other three games go back to 1989-1990. Needless to say, if you play like that, you are not winning. And make no mistake, they did not win.
Too many self-inflicted errors. Too long of a drought between drives that mattered. Too many wasted opportunities and then, of course, the defense cannot get you the ball back.
To whom much is given, much is expected.
Every QB lives in different realities and this one is Prescott’s. Dak has to be the reason Dallas wins or they simply don’t win. For instance, in games in which the Cowboys do not score at least 20 points when he starts, he is 4-33 for a win percentage of 11%. 53 of his 85 career wins (63%) were when scoring 30+. It is simply a different bar than a place like Philadelphia where Jalen Hurts wins 20% of his games under 20 points and well under half of his career wins (24 of 62) have been with 30+ (39%). It is a different world and a different measuring stick. The Eagles win when Hurts is not good. Dallas simply cannot. I think we see why the Eagles biosphere is so much more conducive to winning football.
Dak Prescott Had a Real Stinker
But, let’s get back to the reality of the situation. In a game like this against an opponent like this, victory is a “normal performance” away. If Dak could simply play a dead-bang average game, they win this one. I am certain of it. And, as you will see, I will not be holding him accountable for the interceptions because those were not on him.But, I did find eight very poorly graded plays by this player and we have to call them fairly. This is about as poor a throwing game as I have seen in a long time. Nothing here looks good. Check it out.
First throw is late. Second throw sails an open Lamb. Third one misses Lamb to the wrong side (on third down). The fourth throw is a touchdown and Dak bounces it. The fifth throw is brutally behind Turpin who has nobody close to him. Sixth throw is to Ferguson and Pickens is wide open. Seventh throw misses Flournoy by a mile and might be another touchdown. And the eight throw is the 2-point conversion and he has Lamb but tries to hit Flournoy behind him and it isn’t close.
Is the Blitz Working Against GOTI?
You may notice from that reel that there were a lot of blitzes and we can definitely see that 18 blitzes was an awful lot a Cowboys opponent and the numbers aren’t great. But, the numbers were poor without the blitz, too. The QB could not find the strike zone as much as anything.
Here are the season numbers vs the blitz:
From what I can see, Dallas is nearly flat with or without blitzing. They should continue to prepare for it, but overall, there is no compelling evidence that they are bad against pressures. Dak sorts it well. He just couldn’t hit his throws and we should consider his hand got banged up in Houston (I believe he got stepped on) and it might have just been a bad night that happens, even though nobody wants it to happen.
NEXT GEN THROW CHART
I’ll be honest – I saw just as many open receivers, the same basic pass protection, and very few variables that tell us much. The CeeDee Lamb injury didn’t help, but also cannot really be blamed. It was just one of those days.
You certainly don’t excuse it or accept it. But, I think over-reactions are not terribly appropriate. He needs to be better and I am sure he will bounce back to normal standards this week in Green Bay.
Look at plenty of All-22 film
1Q - 13:19 - 2-6-50 - J.Williams up the middle to TB 29 for 21 yards (T.Smith).
This play is the one and only big run in the game on Thursday. Basic outside zone right with a caved in cut-back. Jake Ferguson is the TE who is the split-flow zone blocker who is sift-blocking the backside pursuit. He totally whiffs, but makes 0-Diaby navigate around him, so it still serves to spring Williams for a real nice gainer. The left side of the line with 73-Smith and 60-Guyton will be a great place to run in weeks to come. Ferguson’s blocking has rightfully come under scrutiny and he needs to get it going.
1Q - 12:41 - 1-10-TB 29 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to G.Pickens to TB 8 for 21 yards (J.Parrish).
The ol’ bread and butter on the very next play. 12 personnel, play-action on 1st and 10. We talk about this every week as the best place to pass because you will get a Cover 3 almost every time and that will let Lamb and Pickens put the safety in conflict and wherever he goes, Dak goes to the other guy in single coverage. They feast on this and this is no exception. Pickens should be a great matchup vs 25-Parrish and it sure started that way.
1Q - 10:53 - 2-1-TB 1 - J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Finish off the drive with 13 personnel and a motion 89-Spann Ford. Just follow him inside as he creates an extra gap and we know Williams will get in there nearly every time. This is another go-to move that seems like making a free-throw. Simple power football and they have done well here.
2Q - 12:42 - 3-10-DAL 44 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to G.Pickens (J.Parrish).
Here is the blitz and the poor throw from Dak. Pickens is the right read and he is open and has inside position on a smaller corner who is 5’10 in 25-Parrish. The throw is just poor. It is either late or behind Pickens. This allows Parrish back into the play. This was the first indicator that QB might not be hitting his normal shots. I think there is plenty of catch radius here, but Pickens is not Lamb when comes to coming back to meet the ball. Pickens will allow guys up his back.
2Q - 9:29 - 3-10-TB 47 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb.
This is the next drive and I think it might be the play of the game. Now, it starts with yet another 3rd and 10. There will be three in a row and all three will be incomplete. The next thing is it is a very nice blitz call with 51-Walker hitting the A-Gap between Beebe and Booker. Dak does great to avoid a sure sack, but when he reloads, there is Flournoy open beyond the sticks, but Dak sees that Lamb is a touchdown as his guy is beat and Lamb is off to the races. Even an average throw gets them a huge gain and an excellent throw is a score. Instead, he bounces it and this is when the alarms were going off. The QB is not right tonight. And if he is the meal ticket, this one might have to be an ugly win.
2Q - 3:20 - 3-10-DAL 18 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to G.Pickens (Z.McCollum).
Yet another 3rd and 10 – spot the trend! Let’s just say this, converting 3rd and 5 vs 3rd and 10 is a mile apart in terms of league conversion rates where you can hit nearly 50% from 5 and about 30% from 10. It is just so hard, even though most weeks Dallas makes it look easy with these receivers. But, this time we see Pickens just isn’t much of a comeback route guy for me as he waits until the ball is on him. This allows guys to climb his back and that happened here. I love Pickens so much more on in-breakers than simple stops, hooks, or comebacks because he doesn’t meet the ball. Dak’s throw is fine here.
2Q - 1:52 - 1-10-DAL 13 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to R.Flournoy to TB 39 for 48 yards (A.Anzalone; T.Smith).
Big throw on first down after the two-minute warning and this is what Lamb and Pickens provide where you want to run Tampa 2 where you have the safeties outside the numbers vs the big boys and then Flournoy, Ferguson, or Turpin have vertical opportunities against a LB and this is a very fast 48 yard gainer. Great job on this play and the protection is also excellent.
3Q - 12:45 - 3-3-DAL 39 - D.Prescott pass short left to G.Pickens to TB 34 for 27 yards (I.Melifonwu).
I became optimistic when I saw this play which is more of an in-breaking idea for Pickens on a slant that gets him in space and slicing through behind a blitz. I didn’t understand the lack of slants in the 1st half and maybe this was their adjustment? If I have the best slant guy in the league, it seems I can make things easier on my QB if I make sure they are a big part of the diet in this situation. Pickens gets 27 yards and everyone feels great for a minute.
3Q - 10:51 - 3-3-TB 27 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for R.Flournoy INTERCEPTED by Y.Diaby at TB 24.
This one is very interesting because it reminds me of the play vs Houston that they converted on the final drive on 4th down. I just don’t like two in-breakers on top of eachother because the defenders in this league can play one guy and then switch to cause trouble on the other guy, even if you gun the ball in there. I thought I wanted to see Flournoy make this catch, but 51-Walker makes sure it is not easy and the collision on the ball causes the ball to be picked off. I am not a fan of these tight quarters route combinations and this is exactly why. I am less blaming Flournoy now that we are seeing the film. There are so many better options on 3rd and 3.
3Q - 1:54 - 3-3-DAL 43 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to G.Pickens (J.Parrish) [T.Smith].
This is not an exact replay of the play at 12:42 of the 2nd Quarter, but almost everything is the same. Blitz, Cover 3, Pickens on deep-in, 25-Parrish arrives and seems to want the ball as much as Pickens and reaches around him to get it. The throw could be more out in front, Lamb looks equally appealing, and it falls incomplete. It was just one of those very frustrating days where easy was made to look difficult.
3Q - 1:49 - 4-3-DAL 43 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to J.Ferguson.
So, when I am commissioner, I think I will make sure that turnover on downs is marked down as a turnover. Everything is the same. It is a mistake that ends a drive with nothing and give your opponent great field position. If you are going for it in your own territory in the 3rd Quarter, you are desperate and willing to gamble. The Cowboys did here and Tampa is bringing pressure so Dak has to decide on Ferguson or Pickens. Dak is throwing at the blitz, but I still am going to Pickens here on the slant. Tampa knew he would throw into the blitz to Ferguson’s spot and I think flashed an undercutting defender and that made Dak throw it too high. Just not what we need in this spot. Huge turnover on downs.
4Q - 6:50 - 2-6-DAL 49 - D.Prescott pass short left to G.Pickens to TB 31 for 20 yards (T.Smith).
George Pickens on a slant route. I don’t want to have to spend much time on why this is so easy. Throw it this way, please.
4Q - 5:30 - 2-10-TB 18 - D.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Now, Dallas is in full rally-mode and Dak is mostly playing without CeeDee due to the quad injury. But, here it will use Ferguson and Pickens to conflict that high safety and honestly, it looks like he could have chosen either one. They will fail on the 2-point conversion, but this is a wonderful touchdown throw and catch and Pickens had a big night (that I think could have been much bigger).
4Q - 1:22 - 2-1-TB 24 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12
No idea what is going on with Jake Ferguson, but this is not the time to have a bad year. He has not blocked well, not caught the ball well, and just looks like he may no longer be your best tight end and it is right on the heels of signing his deal. Of the 38 qualifying Tight Ends on PFF, he is rated 38th best. That is really, really bad and disappointing and this drop that hits him in both hands and facemask is just awful. Yes, Dak will get the interception, but Dak cannot catch it for him. This is not up to standard at all and it is at a moment where they still have a real chance in this game.
So, yes, a real stinker all around from the offense. The running game never really gave it a chance. The protection was dicey. Lamb never got the ball and Pickens was not his best. Ferguson was poor again and Dak played his worst of the season and then some.
They will respond, but we will not blame the defense (solely) for this one. This was simply just not good enough from the side of the ball that must get them 27-35 points to have a chance. They did not come very close to that.
