Russia Invades Ukraine

Poland downs drones in its airspace, becoming first NATO member to fire during war in Ukraine

WARSAW/WYRYKI-WOLA, Poland, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Poland shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace on Wednesday with the backing of aircraft from its NATO allies, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired shots during Russia's war in Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament it was "the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two," though he also said he had "no reason to believe we're on the brink of war."

Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS surveillance planes, and NATO mid-air refuelling aircraft scrambled in an operation to shoot down drones entering Polish airspace from Tuesday evening until morning, officials said.
One drone smashed into pensioner Tomasz Wesolowski's two-storey brick house in the eastern Polish village of Wyryki-Wola at 6:30 a.m. while he was downstairs watching news about the incursion.
The roof was destroyed, and debris was strewn across the bedroom. Wesolowski told Reuters the house "needs to be demolished."
A blackened spot in a field elsewhere in southeastern Poland showed where some other drones had fallen.

MOSCOW DENIES RESPONSIBILITY
Moscow denied responsibility for the incident, with a senior diplomat in Poland saying the drones had come from the direction of Ukraine. Russia's Defence Ministry said its drones had carried out a major attack on military facilities in western Ukraine, but it had not planned to hit any targets in Poland.
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, a conservative nationalist and political ally whom Trump hosted at the White House last week. "This conversation is part of a series of consultations I've been conducting with our allies," Nawrocki said in a post on X. "Today's talks reaffirmed our unity."
Ahead of the phone call, Trump posted on social media: "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!" He did not elaborate.
The leaders of France, Britain, Germany, and Canada were among the NATO leaders to condemn the suspected Russian incursion in strong terms.

European leaders, who have been trying to persuade Trump to join them in tightening sanctions on Russia and boosting support for Kyiv, said it justified a collective response.
Poland said 19 objects had entered its airspace during a large Russian air attack on Ukraine, and that it had shot down those posing a threat.
Tusk called the incident a "large-scale provocation" and said he had activated Article 4 of NATO's treaty, under which alliance members can demand consultations with their allies.

Neither Poland nor NATO has yet given a full account of what they suspect the drones were doing. One senior military source said at least five of the drones' flight paths indicated they were headed towards Rzeszow airport, NATO's main hub for arms supplies to Ukraine.

TESTING NATO CAPABILITIES?
The source said Russia may have been testing the capabilities of NATO's air defences and warning systems.
NATO declined to comment on whether that was its assessment, referring the question to NATO chief Mark Rutte's remarks earlier when he said an investigation was ongoing but that the incursion was "absolutely reckless."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, after speaking by phone to Tusk, Rutte, and other European leaders, that the drone incursion into Poland meant Europe had to work on creating a joint air defence.

Andrey Ordash, Russia's charge d'affaires in Poland, was cited by the RIA state news agency as calling accusations of an incursion "groundless" and said Poland had not given any evidence that the drones shot down were of Russian origin.
The Kremlin declined to comment directly on the incident, but spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the EU and NATO "accuse Russia of provocations on a daily basis. Most of the time without even trying to present at least some kind of argument."
During the incident, the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces urged residents to stay home, with three eastern regions at particular risk.

Several Polish airports were temporarily closed, including Rzeszow, which has been used as the main access point for Western officials and supplies travelling to Ukraine overland.

The suspected incursion was conducted at least in part with Gerbera drones, according to a Polish army official. It is a cheap long-range drone that Ukrainian intelligence says is made of plywood and foam and assembled from kits supplied by Chinese manufacturer Skywalker Technology at Russia's vast Yelabuga facility.

Countries bordering Ukraine have reported occasional Russian missiles or drones entering their airspace in the past during the war, but not on such a large scale, and they are not known to have shot them down. Two people were killed in Poland in 2022 by a Ukrainian air defence missile that went astray.

Since NATO’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times, most recently in February 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"This is going to shock the NATO alliance and the border countries, they're all in the same situation," said Riki Ellison, an expert on missile defence close to U.S. and allied military forces. "It's not the beginning of World War Three, but it's evolving Russia's understanding of how we fight and our weaknesses, and the weaknesses of the alliance."

Russia has long said it has no intention of stoking a war with NATO and that Western European countries suggesting it is a threat were trying to worsen relations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for more sanctions on Russia, and said the EU was preparing sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers that transport its oil and third countries that buy it.
Trump, who warmly welcomed Putin in Alaska at a summit in August, said over the weekend he was ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia after months of talks about a peace deal.

Reporting by Lidia Kelly, David Shepardson, Steve Gorman, Andrea Shalal, Alan Charlish, Marek Strzelecki, Pawel Florkiewicz, Sabine Siebold, Andrew Gray, Karol Badohal, Barbara Erling, Katharine Jackson, Ryan Patrick Jones, Jeff Mason, Max Hunder and Ron Popeski; Writing by Lidia Kelly, Matthias Williams and Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Peter Graff, Jon Boyle, Rod Nickel
 
Crazy how for literally years this by far was the most important concern in the world, and then the media completely stopped talking about it.
 
Crazy how for literally years this by far was the most important concern in the world, and then the media completely stopped talking about it.
A new "thing" came along. Then another thing. People's bios on social media have been changing like a revolving door.
 
Probably never


Russia faces some serious consequences demographically. They were already in bad shape, and this war has made it significantly worse through not just combat casualties but the "brain drain" they've suffered from young people unwilling to participate in the war and emigrating elsewhere. This really was a Hail Mary for them to survive as a country, and it has gone horribly wrong. Even if they were to take Ukraine, they'll have no capacity to initiate another war with a former Soviet bloc country. And if they fuck with Poland, Estonia, etc. they will activate Article 5 of NATO and then their ass is grass. From Grok:

The current attrition rate (2025–early 2026) is high:


  • Russia: ~35,000 casualties per month on average in 2025 (~1,000–1,200 per day recently, per Ukrainian General Staff and UK intelligence). Losses have sometimes exceeded recruitment.
  • Ukraine: Roughly 40–50% of the Russian rate (a consistent 2:1 to 2.5:1 ratio in Western analyses), or ~14,000–18,000 per month.
  • Combined: Already approaching or exceeding 1.8–2 million total military casualties; at current pace, another ~700,000–1 million+ combined casualties could accumulate by spring 2026 alone.

These figures reflect a grinding war of attrition dominated by artillery, drones, and mines, with slow Russian advances (often 15–70 meters per day in key sectors).

And their military doctrine has always been to deploy an overwhelming force against an enemy, but their losses are unrecoverable this time. Also from Grok:

Russia's approach in the Ukraine war embodies the Soviet-era military philosophy often summarized as "quantity has a quality of its own" (a maxim frequently, if apocryphally, attributed to Stalin from WWII). This doctrine prioritizes overwhelming the enemy through sheer volume of manpower, munitions, and expendable assets rather than superior technology, training, precision, or maneuver. It treats high losses as acceptable if they achieve incremental attrition and territorial gains, leveraging Russia's advantages in population size, industrial output of cheap weapons, and willingness to sustain prolonged bloodshed.
 
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