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Cowboys facing long odds on NFL’s biggest stage against Packers QB Jordan Love

By Tim Cowlishaw

Nothing has been steadier, more reliable in the chaotic world of television, than the No. 1 ratings generated on a regular basis — 15 years and still counting — by NBC’s Sunday Night Football. And, needless to say, NBC loves the Cowboys as a recurring character.

Unfortunately for the local squad, no guest star has delivered on the top prime-time stage quite like Jordan Love. The Green Bay quarterback has produced five straight Sunday night games of at least two touchdown passes with no interceptions. He is joined on that list the last 25 years by … nobody.

Enter the Cowboys defense.

If this sounds like a perilous and ill-timed trip for Dallas to be making to Lambeau Field, I can’t guarantee you otherwise. Love has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of the Packers’ first five games. He has thrown two touchdown passes in each of the five games. Green Bay, lousy at running the football (with Josh Jacobs in purgatory following a domestic violence charge), is coming to Lambeau to throw the football.

Maybe there is some satisfaction in that. The Cowboys have been worse at stopping the run than the pass, though to use the word “stopping” in any discussion of the Dallas defense is misleading. The league’s 31st-ranked defense will be challenged Sunday night, no doubt about that. The club spent much of the week trying to figure out where to station new coordinator Christian Parker — always a bad sign.

I couldn’t remember this moment from the 2025 season (perhaps because it seriously lacked in value) so I looked it up. The Cowboys did not move Matt Eberflus, the target of most of the fans’ wrath all last season, up to the press box until Week 16 against the Chargers. For Cowboys owner Jerry Jones to be announcing Parker’s exile from the sideline after just five games is astounding, even if his call may have been premature. Both son Stephen and coach Brian Schottenheimer followed Jones’ determination to break news with the reveal that nothing had been decided on Parker’s whereabouts for Sunday night.

Either way, the Cowboys did add a former defensive coordinator and NFL head coach, Mike Pettine, to the staff this week, which is rarely a sign that all is going according to plan.

In a chart produced by the Cowboys’ radio station, 105.3 The Fan, detailing the first five games of Mike Nolan, Eberflus and Parker, the numbers went back and forth — Nolan’s team was basically the worst in all the scoring categories, Eberflus trailing all the total yardage numbers while Parker’s squad is worst in yards per play and passer rating. It did not stop to mention that the current team has played half its quarters against Marcus Mariota, Jalon Daniels and C.J. Stroud.

Not exactly a trio of Matt Staffords.

Along come the Packers with Love throwing at a high level, with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden as the only pair of wide receivers ranked in the top 10 in receiving yards through five weeks.
You get it. It all sounds very ominous for Sunday night. We haven’t mentioned yet that no team has owned the Cowboys the last 20 years or so like the Green Bay Packers. Dallas is 1-10-1 in the last 12 meetings (including three playoff defeats) dating to the 2009 season.

So why are we watching or, in some cases, traveling north?

Well, recall that the Green Bay Packers made their name — built their legend, if you will — on the “Run to Daylight” theory that Vince Lombardi promulgated in the ‘60s. Even wrote a book with that title. And running the football remains a core part of the NFL, one in which the Cowboys are more equipped to succeed than the Packers. In all the hand-wringing about the Cowboys’ defense, there is little time left for consideration of the other half. The Dallas offense stands a reasonable chance of putting on a respectable show Sunday night in Green Bay.

The Cowboys rank 30th in time of possession this season, a statistic that is a function of both offense and defense but one that serves notice that Dallas has trouble sustaining drives. Green Bay, as it turns out, ranks 31st. For all its passing prowess, the Packers’ attack is dead last in third-down percentage. An offense that ranks last in rushing and on third downs is one that gives the opponent (even the Dallas defense) a chance.

This is the second week back for guard Tyler Smith, the best of the Cowboys’ offensive linemen. It’s reasonable to think the rushing attack will look more like it did a year ago when Javonte Williams averaged 4.8 yards per carry, not his current 3.7. In any event, moving the football on the ground against the Packers is a more reasonable proposition for Dallas than it was against Tampa Bay’s forever tough defensive front.

Saying there’s a chance is about where it ends. We’ll leave the rest to the folks at NBC, who already are promised a mammoth rating with the Cowboys and the Packers involved. It says here the game will do a better job of living up to its prime time status than Dallas’ effort last Thursday at home.
 
I could see us winning this game, but I could also see us losing to Philly without Hurts because that's-what-we-do.
 

Pregame Thoughts Wk6 – The Green Bay Mirror​

When the Cowboys visits the Pack, they will find so much that reminds them of themselves.​

Bob Sturm
1 hour ago



Well, here we are again, old friends.

The Dallas Cowboys play the Green Bay Packers an awful lot. There is no question they have an incredible shared history that goes all the way back to 1966’s NFL Championship Game and it, of course, was followed by the 1967 NFL Championship Game.

Both games came down to the final seconds and both games went the way of Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr. Since then they play a lot. As you know – especially if you heard our Football Friends chat from this week – I prefer these two teams avoid each-other, but they never listen to me.

The Cowboys need a win. Now, the good news is that they do this to us. They win games they are expected to lose and lose games they are expected to win. Also, they are playing a Green Bay team that is not the best version of themselves, that is for sure.

The funny thing about Green Bay is that they have had a ridiculously disappointing start to their year on a number of levels, but they still have a 3-2 record, so they have not drown just yet.

Here are the facts of this series from the Cowboys press release this week:



If you include post-season (and why wouldn’t you), here are the five NFL franchises that have won more games than they have lost against the Cowboys as of now:

  • Green Bay Packers: 22–17–1
  • San Francisco 49ers: 21–19–1
  • Baltimore Ravens: 7–1
  • Cleveland Browns: 18–15
  • Denver Broncos: 10–5
Both Green Bay and San Francisco did not have a leg up until recently, but you know, these last few decades have been rough.

These two teams intertwine in my life in such a profound and meaningful way and it isn’t lost on me how I really do love both franchises in significantly different ways. The Packers are my life story and I was in a crib in Packers Green and Gold. I was literally born that way.

But, the Cowboys have been my last 30 years and my entire professional life. I didn’t know I loved them, because I don’t love them in the way of a super-fan. But, I love them in that every day of my life I study them, follow them, think about them, and yes, write and talk about them. They are my daily purpose and I love having one. So, by extension, I think I can say, I love covering the Dallas Cowboys and the life it has extended me.

Now, a confession. I think my geographic location has produced a trend in my life.

The following is a list of meetings between these two teams from when I first watched Cowboys football until I moved to Texas - let’s call it 1976 to 1998:



As you can see, 15 meetings over that time and Dallas nearly won them all. 12-3 and the only three wins for Green Bay were two in 1989 when Dallas was 1-15 and then the visit to Lambeau in 1997 where Green Bay was able to finally beat Dallas on their home turf.

Dallas 12-3 over Green Bay though is a mighty trend.

Then, I was hired in Dallas in June of 1998 and my life changed. I got here just in time for the Stanley Cup and the end of the triplets. I remember that November of 1999 meeting at Texas Stadium because it was surreal that Jason Garrett was beating up on Brett Favre all over again. Green Bay could never, ever win at Texas Stadium (other than that one time in 1989)

Anyway, these two teams have played 16 times since 1998:



As you might have noticed, the series switched when I switched locations.

Somehow (actually, I think somehow’s name is “Aaron Rodgers”), the Packers almost never lose to Dallas anymore.

Green Bay 11-4-1 against the Cowboys during this weird sample size.

I honestly don’t know why it switched like that and I don’t know when it switches back the other way.

Maybe Sunday? Who can say?

But, we do have a game to talk about, so stop yapping about history, Bob.

Here we go.

These are my Pregame Thoughts:

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The easiest thing to see here is that Dallas is 2-3 with games at Green Bay and at Philadelphia both in prime time and both in the next ten days.

Go 2-0, season is so back on. Go 1-1, season is probably still doable with this division so silly. Go 0-2 and they are 2-5 and we start to think about the 2027 draft already (and we don’t want that).

When Dallas has the ball:​

– Dallas needs a swashbuckling and aggressive response to a very disappointing effort against Tampa Bay. They have all of their pieces, they have ten days of rest with a mini-bye, and they are playing a team that is completely prepared for a total track meet. It is time to see another game where the Cowboys make offense look easy and go score 30+ in a foreign port.

Let’s start with the numbers this week. Green Bay has not had Micah Parsons yet, of course, and they lost Edgerrin Cooper, but they are not too bad. In fact, in Year 1 with DC Jonathan Gannon, they are fairly optimistic about where they stand when Micah rejoins them soon.



They limit big plays and we see Dallas has not had nearly as many as you would think since they only rank 20th. Green Bay is taking the ball away well, but keep in mind Chicago gave them five last week alone.

The Packers do stop the pass well, but I think that is far more a function of playing some very poor QBs than them actually being able to cover guys like Lamb and Pickens. Stop me when you see a big-time QB so far on their schedule.

Week 1: Kyler Murray/Carson Wentz

Week 2: Geno Smith

Week 3: Michael Penix

Week 4: Jalon Daniels

Week 5: Tyson Bagent/Case Keenum

Not exactly anyone who lives in Dak Prescott’s neighborhood.



I think your clear matchup here is Dallas WRs vs Green Bay CBs. Green Bay has a good defense but are missing their two best defenders (Parsons and Cooper), but more than anything, they are excellent at safety, but poor at corner. Rookie Brandon Cisse has a real chance and is off to a nice start, but Keisean Nixon is a constant target of ridicule by Packers fans as he is picked on every week. I expect the Cowboys have No. 25 circled on the white board.



Green Bay’s safeties are very nice. Xavier McKinney leads the NFL in interceptions since joining the Green Bay Packers (starting in the 2024 season) with 13 and to compare that, Dallas as a team has 19 since 2024 and only 6 since 2025. He is very dangerous in jumping routes and has great range. Javon Bullard plays in that big nickel near the box and is blitzing constantly.

Packers Defensive Feature: No. 33 - Evan Williams​

But their other safety is really playing well for them. Oregon 4th rounder, Evan Williams. Here are his clips from the last two weeks and he is a menace, too.


They do get pressure and they do like to ambush you with blitzes where they are above league average after not really blitzing the last few years. That may change when Micah returns, but he isn’t back and they are scrambling to find splash plays and takeaways. You can definitely cause them issues, but Lukas Van Ness is a problem and Zaire Franklin has been playing well, too.

Dallas should be able to score points, but they must do it cleanly. You cannot turn the ball over multiple times and win this game, I’d imagine.

OK, let’s flip it around to where things change.

When Green Bay has the ball:​

– Green Bay is a work in progress as their entire story has been whether or not they can run their offense because their offensive line has been such a joke. At least it was in Weeks 1-3, but now Green Bay has looked “normal” on offense in Weeks 4-5. So, which is it? And can Dallas cause them issues, because if they can’t, Green Bay can score and score a lot through the air.

I feel like this game is a track meet. 35-31? 37-33? Not sure. But, I don’t think defense is going to win the day.

Now, the stats won’t prove it as Green Bay looks broken:



But, look at those explosive plays and passing yards. Also, look at how bad they are at rushing the ball. No Josh Jacobs and no OL means no run and not even trying to run it. They will want to establish that early, but, they will also give up quickly if they find no success.

Now, where the heck are we with this Dallas defense? Here is Mike Pettine on the coaching staff which is always a weird add five weeks in. Here is Christian Parker who can’t be super high on confidence. Here is a defense that just got spanked by Jalon Daniels and Bucky Irving. Honestly, guys, your guess is as good as mine.

But, we can live with one or the other when it comes to defenses. Either you get stops or you get the ball. But, so far, Dallas has not done either.

31st in total yards against and 30th in turnovers is the worst recipe ever.

And Green Bay has a trio of dynamite weapons in Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft who can cause all sorts of problems. If you can’t get pass rush, you better cover. And I am not sure we can trust this group to cover.



Keep an eye on the interior battle inside. We think Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler will be the starting guards, but neither was on the roster three weeks ago. They have suffered injuries, yes, but they also overestimated their kids. Now, they are panicked and signed two guys off the practice squad of Dallas (Tomlinson) and the couch (Zeitler) and instantly look like a better team. Can it hold up?



Meanwhile, the Dallas storyline is based on the two Packers coming home to show their old team that they blew it giving basically both up for Micah Parsons. They make a ton of money – $37m a year AAV combined – which is only $10m less than Micah, but without all of the sacks and splash plays. They must step up.

Speaking of stepping up, Christian Watson was signed this summer despite having a very spotty health record. But, when he is right, he is spectacular.

And so far this season, he has been. Here is his work in the last 12 months on the HUGE plays:

Packers Offensive Feature: No. 9 Christian Watson​


The question is whether he can stay healthy. A series of soft-tissue injuries have haunted him, but now, at age 27, he finally looks like he is that dude. As his testing scores show, he was a absolute unit in his draft year in all the measureables and testing.



Look at the talent on the field Sunday Night on both sides:



Like I said, full track meet incoming!

Now, to why I think these two teams are looking in the mirror – I just think there are so many similarities everywhere. High expectations, high investments, and the feeling like both teams could either contend or crash and burn. Then, the wildness of homecomings, missing Micah, and the idea that a Green Bay crash-out would help the Cowboys since they have the Packers 1st rounder (unless they are giving it to the Jets).

PREDICTION:​

I mean, come on. Do you really think I have any idea? The more you know, the less you know. I have studied both teams at great length going back decades.

Will the Packers win? Absolutely, they can. But, they absolutely are not trusted by their fans right now to do what they are capable of doing.

Will the Cowboys win? Absolutely, they can. But, they absolutely are not trusted by their fans right now to do what they are capable of doing.

But, I don’t know who is winning this thing. I would take the over as it sits at 53. I would be shocked if this isn’t over 53. Is that a prediction?

Winning team 35, Losing team 31.

Let’s enjoy it and let’s have some football!
 
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