JJT: Garrett, Cowboys must regain offensive identity in 2016

[Cowboysrock55]

Murray? You mean Randle. Don't be a stat monkey, ypc doesn't tell the whole story and you know it. Randle racked up all of his yards on a few carries.

What I mean is there was minimal difference in our offensive production based on the RB. People overrate the impact of the RB on this offense. Basically Murray, Randle, McFadden. We still would have blown and lost this year.

The key is to have a QB to convert the third downs so that we can run the ball more like we did with Murray. It makes me laugh when people talk like Murray knocked off 5 yards every time he touched the ball. It's a total fallacy. He didn't come even close to getting 3 yards on every carry. But that's normal for all RB's.

 

[townsend]

What I mean is there was minimal difference in our offensive production based on the RB. People overrate the impact of the RB on this offense. Basically Murray, Randle, McFadden. We still would have blown and lost this year.

The key is to have a QB to convert the third downs so that we can run the ball more like we did with Murray. It makes me laugh when people talk like Murray knocked off 5 yards every time he touched the ball. It's a total fallacy. He didn't come even close to getting 3 yards on every carry. But that's normal for all RB's.

Unfortunately for this team we sucked butt as penalties too, which hurt us even if we would have been facing 3rd and short. Still, Weedon's conservative accurate passing and McFadden's dependability would have worked much better together than Cassle/McFadden or Randle/Weedon. I'm not a asking for Emmitt Smith here, one more successful drive per game and we're like 10-6.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Unfortunately for this team we sucked butt as penalties too, which hurt us even if we would have been facing 3rd and short. Still, Weedon's conservative accurate passing and McFadden's dependability would have worked much better together than Cassle/McFadden or Randle/Weedon. I'm not a asking for Emmitt Smith here, one more successful drive per game and we're like 10-6.

Now obviously there are a ton of different variables impacting offensive production. But let it sink in for a minute that we averaged 20.1 points per game with Randle and 15.4 points per game without him.

 

[townsend]

Now obviously there are a ton of different variables impacting offensive production. But let it sink in for a minute that we averaged 20.1 points per game with Randle and 15.4 points per game without him.

Weeden got benched at the same time. Dunbar went down too around then. McFadden got to play most of his games with 3rd string quality QBs.

Meanwhile with all of those things Randle still never had a 100 yard game. To me that seems like a pretty good measure of whether a guy can be a starter, when you can't rack up 100 yards behind the best like (allegedly) in the league.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Weeden got benched at the same time. Dunbar went down too around then. McFadden got to play most of his games with 3rd string quality QBs.

Meanwhile with all of those things Randle still never had a 100 yard game. To me that seems like a pretty good measure of whether a guy can be a starter, when you can't rack up 100 yards behind the best like (allegedly) in the league.

Well Randle didn't exactly get the amount of carries that McFadden did either. I mean he was splitting his the entire time. McFadden the vast majority later on.

But I'm not saying Randle was better then McFadden, I'm saying that even with a better performance out of McFadden the offensive results were worse. Just shows how little impact the RB actually has on the offense scoring points. It's mostly about the passing game.

The other part that is sad is that we traded a fifth for Cassel and thought he was actually a serious upgrade to Weeden. At most it was a lateral move.

 

[townsend]

Well Randle didn't exactly get the amount of carries that McFadden did either. I mean he was splitting his the entire time. McFadden the vast majority later on.

But I'm not saying Randle was better then McFadden, I'm saying that even with a better performance out of McFadden the offensive results were worse. Just shows how little impact the RB actually has on the offense scoring points. It's mostly about the passing game.

The other part that is sad is that we traded a fifth for Cassel and thought he was actually a serious upgrade to Weeden. At most it was a lateral move.

You're right. The passing attack is like 75% of offensive success in this league, especially since it comes down to the last minute most games.

I think Cassel was a significant downgrade. I know Weeden got to pad his passer rating by checking down on every play, but he came into Houston and won his first start. It took Cassel nearly 3 months to get his first victory, learning the offense and shit.

This team bungled the QB postion so badly, any other self respecting team would have fired somebody over this.

 

[Genghis Khan]

...A couple things:

1. Murray averaged 4.7 last season. McFadden averaged 4.6 this season. Randle averaged 4.1 this season. Just so we're oriented in this discussion.

2. The .1 difference overall between Murray and McFadden isn't significant in and of itself.

3. The .5 difference between McFadden and Randle IS significant.

4. Randle trended downwards with more carries. It was true in 2015 and has been true his whole career. You can argue against it all you want, but it's reality.

5. There is such a thing as putting too much emphasis on YPC for running backs. It's a useful statistic but it doesn't always tell the whole story.

6. Consistent forward progress for a running back is a big deal. Example: Back A has 50 yards on 10 carries. Carry 1 went 50 yards. Carries 2-10 each went for zero yards. Back B has 40 yards on 10 carries. Every single carry went for 4 yards. Give me back B, without hesitation.

7. Randle was not giving consistent forward progress. He would have a few good runs and a vast majority of bad, less than 2 yard runs. Every game. Every running back doesn't do that, and it's not even typical.

8. No one said, that I've seen, that Murray got 5 yards on every carry. What you can say about Murray is he gave us consistent forward progress. To a lesser extent, so did McFadden. Randle didn't.

9. You can't say that the running game wouldn't have made a difference this season and therefore it isn't important, and think you have a point. Nobody is saying that the difference between 4-12 and 12-4 is a better running back. You need to have a QB and good coaching first and foremost. This season's problems were many. The way we used the running game the first 6 or so weeks was only one of them.

10. That said, the difference in the running game can certainly make a difference between 8-8 and 12-4. And it's not only the talent at the position, but also how the coaches use it.

It would be foolhardy to go into 2016 without solidifying and planning to use the running game. If we have a healthy Romo it absolutely can make or break the season.

 

[Clay_Allison]

6. Consistent forward progress for a running back is a big deal. Example: Back A has 50 yards on 10 carries. Carry 1 went 50 yards. Carries 2-10 each went for zero yards. Back B has 40 yards on 10 carries. Every single carry went for 4 yards. Give me back B, without hesitation.

It's like completion % for QBs, if a QB keeps a high yards per attempt stat by forcing the deep ball but only completes 45% of his passes, you are going to get tired of going 3 and out with him. Sustaining drives and getting more attempts is better than getting more yards per play.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

6. Consistent forward progress for a running back is a big deal. Example: Back A has 50 yards on 10 carries. Carry 1 went 50 yards. Carries 2-10 each went for zero yards. Back B has 40 yards on 10 carries. Every single carry went for 4 yards. Give me back B, without hesitation.

Here is the problem with this. The first thing is, if you have an offense that struggles to sustain drives because of poor QB play and an O-line that is committing penalties, then the RB who breaks long runs is way more useful then the other back.

But beyond that the real problem is that people have created something in their mind with regards to Murray that never existed in reality. People say things like "Murray always got positive yards" "Murray got 4 yards every time he touched the ball." But then you actually go back and look at the statistics and this couldn't be further from the truth. Murray had long runs that bumped up his average. He had lots of runs that went for 3 yards or less. But people have built up this "legacy" so much in their mind that they believe Murray did things that he didn't. And since their isn't an official consistency statistic that I have seen at least, people throw around information about Murray that isn't true.

Do I want to upgrade RB? Yep. But mostly because we need better situational running. McFadden did very poorly on third and 1 type plays. We need a better back for situations like that. But this was a 4-12 team with or without Murray this past year. No question in my mind. McFadden was like the fourth best RB in the NFL statistically last year. It did exactly jack and squat for this team.

 

[Clay_Allison]

Here is the problem with this. The first thing is, if you have an offense that struggles to sustain drives because of poor QB play and an O-line that is committing penalties, then the RB who breaks long runs is way more useful then the other back.

But beyond that the real problem is that people have created something in their mind with regards to Murray that never existed in reality. People say things like "Murray always got positive yards" "Murray got 4 yards every time he touched the ball." But then you actually go back and look at the statistics and this couldn't be further from the truth. Murray had long runs that bumped up his average. He had lots of runs that went for 3 yards or less. But people have built up this "legacy" so much in their mind that they believe Murray did things that he didn't. And since their isn't an official consistency statistic that I have seen at least, people throw around information about Murray that isn't true.

Do I want to upgrade RB? Yep. But mostly because we need better situational running. McFadden did very poorly on third and 1 type plays. We need a better back for situations like that. But this was a 4-12 team with or without Murray this past year. No question in my mind. McFadden was like the fourth best RB in the NFL statistically last year. It did exactly jack and squat for this team.

Murray didn't go multiple plays in a row with 0 yards. Randle would go 0,0,0,2,0, 1, on consecutive carries and kill an entire quarter.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Murray didn't go multiple plays in a row with 0 yards. Randle would go 0,0,0,2,0, 1, on consecutive carries and kill an entire quarter.

Do you have a specific example or are you just throwing shit out there?

-1 yard, -1 yard, 4 yards, 0 yards, -1 yards, -4 yards actually is a sequence of running plays by a Cowboys RB. But I'm guessing you will pick the wrong Cowboys RB who did that.

By the way he followed it up with a 1 yard gain and a zero yard gain and then a 24 yarder. And I swear it wasn't Randle who did this.

 

[Clay_Allison]

Do you have a specific example or are you just throwing shit out there?

-1 yard, -1 yard, 4 yards, 0 yards, -1 yards, -4 yards actually is a sequence of running plays by a Cowboys RB. But I'm guessing you will pick the wrong Cowboys RB who did that.

By the way he followed it up with a 1 yard gain and a zero yard gain and then a 24 yarder. And I swear it wasn't Randle who did this.

You also included games in which Romo played to make the point that we scored more points with Randle in there. I get that playing silly games with the facts is what you do for a living but don't piss on the board and say it's raining.

In any case Randle's 4.1 YPC versus Murray's 4.6 and McFadden's 4.5 is enough of a difference even if everything you say about Murray in retrospect is true.

IMO, any back who plays in this offense is going to have trouble with more unproductive carries than they should have because we pass 90%+ from shotgun and run 90%+ from under center. When you telegraph your plays that much any time you play a decent defense they are going to stuff a lot of runs.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Murray didn't go multiple plays in a row with 0 yards. Randle would go 0,0,0,2,0, 1, on consecutive carries and kill an entire quarter.

Exactly.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

You also included games in which Romo played to make the point that we scored more points with Randle in there. I get that playing silly games with the facts is what you do for a living but don't piss on the board and say it's raining.

Romo played in the first game and got hurt in the second. Later on in the season he played in one game and got hurt in the second. I don't think it's really playing silly games to include those. You're missing the point though which is simply that the RB in our offense didn't really make much of a difference. The importance is that we just stick with the run. Which is really the most important thing. In 2014 when Murray did rip off a few 0 or 1 yard gains in a row we stuck with it and he would eventually pop a run. We were able to stick with it because Romo moved the chains. We didn't have that in 2015.

 

[townsend]

Do you have a specific example or are you just throwing shit out there?

-1 yard, -1 yard, 4 yards, 0 yards, -1 yards, -4 yards actually is a sequence of running plays by a Cowboys RB. But I'm guessing you will pick the wrong Cowboys RB who did that.

By the way he followed it up with a 1 yard gain and a zero yard gain and then a 24 yarder. And I swear it wasn't Randle who did this.

If You look at Randle's performance in the Atlanta game, after he ran 70 yards in three plays he went 1, -1, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, 2,-2, -4. Now admittedly two of those 1 yard gains were on the goal line. But they wouldn't have gotten there without Weedon passing them to the 1.

 

[Clay_Allison]

Romo played in the first game and got hurt in the second. Later on in the season he played in one game and got hurt in the second. I don't think it's really playing silly games to include those. You're missing the point though which is simply that the RB in our offense didn't really make much of a difference. The importance is that we just stick with the run. Which is really the most important thing. In 2014 when Murray did rip off a few 0 or 1 yard gains in a row we stuck with it and he would eventually pop a run. We were able to stick with it because Romo moved the chains. We didn't have that in 2015.

I have more confidence in sticking with the run when we have a physical running back. Sure, sticking to the run is a good thing, even when you have the bag of shit we had at RB in 2003 (with a below average OL at that). OTOH, in 2003 we actually used play action to help get WRs open but that concept has only been around since the late 1940s, Jason Garrett hasn't heard about it yet.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

If You look at Randle's performance in the Atlanta game, after he ran 70 yards in three plays he went 1, -1, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, 2,-2, -4. Now admittedly two of those 1 yard gains were on the goal line. But they wouldn't have gotten there without Weedon passing them to the 1.

Yep and we scored 28 points in that game. Which was literally the most points we scored in any game all season. We also scored a TD on both of those drives where he got the big runs early. Our offense really got shut down in the second half and it was a combination of not sticking with the run game and Weeden not allowing us to stick with the run game. I mean if you want to know where that game went wrong look at our running stat line of all the guys. 21 carries 127 6.0 ypc. We should have carried the ball way more then that. In 2014 we would have.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I have more confidence in sticking with the run when we have a physical running back. Sure, sticking to the run is a good thing, even when you have the bag of shit we had at RB in 2003 (with a below average OL at that). OTOH, in 2003 we actually used play action to help get WRs open but that concept has only been around since the late 1940s, Jason Garrett hasn't heard about it yet.

Yeah I couldn't agree with this more. We have to stick with the run game and we have to use the run game to set up the pass and use the pass to set up the run. And if having a different RB back that is incentive for the coaches to actually stick with the run, then so be it. I've got RB's I'd like to add to this team. I could list off 3 or 4 guys who will go in this draft 2nd round or later who I would love in Dallas.

 

[Jiggyfly]

Do you have a specific example or are you just throwing shit out there?

-1 yard, -1 yard, 4 yards, 0 yards, -1 yards, -4 yards actually is a sequence of running plays by a Cowboys RB. But I'm guessing you will pick the wrong Cowboys RB who did that.

By the way he followed it up with a 1 yard gain and a zero yard gain and then a 24 yarder. And I swear it wasn't Randle who did this.

It's amazing the revisionist history when it comes to Randle and Murray.

And now it happening with Mcfadden who was very feast or famine.

 

[dallen]

How are there still people who will defend Joseph Randle?