Pregame Thoughts Week 10 – The 49ers Problem
We have seen this episode enough to know that Sunday’s challenge is the most difficult.
Bob Sturm
4 hours ago
They are Nightmare Fuel.
The San Francisco 49ers are coming to town. Ric Flair would assure us that if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. We can debate where the 49ers are amongst the NFL’s best, but for my money, there is no better team to measure against than the Kyle Shanahan-led San Francisco 49ers.
Since he got his program fully in place, the 49ers have been one of the league’s best. No, they haven’t won a Super Bowl – I would have bet heavily that they would have by now – but, they have done everything but win a Super Bowl. I am sure that hole in the resume is not overlooked by that team’s vast army of loyalists, but doggone, they are a powerhouse who play football the way you would want your team to play it.
Bully-ball. They take it very personally that you dare stand on the field against them and they will not back down. They are tough. They are mean. They are well coached and well schooled in the fundamentals. They are described by coaches with the ultimate compliment: “Sound.”
They play sound football. They play the Xs and Os properly. You can beat them, but you cannot beat them because they were out-coached or out-planned. They also won’t let an injury be an excuse. We saw that last year in maybe their finest season where they were almost out of players with an insane amount of key players gone for the season, but still squeezed everything out of their season that was possible.
Here is the sample from 2019-2026 where they have 88 wins and 51 losses. During that stretch, they have the most wins of any NFC team and the second-most playoff wins of any team in the sport (behind Kansas City, of course). They have been to two Super Bowls, four NFC Championship Games, and have been right there over and over again.
They have done it with several different QBs, many different defensive coordinators, and countless pieces in almost every spot. There are definitely some core players who are key to what Kyle Shanahan does, but it all starts with him. He is a certified football genius.
There are three core pieces who have seen it all:
These are the key San Francisco 49ers players with continuous or near-continuous tenure covering 2018 through the 2026 season (as of mid-November 2026, when the team is 7-1):
- Kyle Juszczyk (FB): Signed as a free agent in March 2017 (from the Ravens). He has been the longest-tenured player on the roster and is in his 10th season with the team in 2026. He remains a core contributor and Pro Bowl mainstay.
- George Kittle (TE): Drafted in the 5th round in 2017. He has been with the team every season since and is in his 10th year in 2026. He remains a top tight end, franchise staple, and tone setter.
- Fred Warner (LB): Drafted in the 3rd round in 2018. He has been with the team continuously since and is in his 9th season in 2026. He is a longtime defensive leader, All-Pro, and high-tackle producer.
Then, they started adding more.
Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel and Dre Greenlaw in the 2019 draft. The trade for Trent Williams in 2020. The drafting of Brock Purdy in 2022 and the trading for Christian McCaffrey that same year. Heck, they even went and got DeForest Buckner back a few weeks ago.
They built something great there, but I suppose history will demand a Super Bowl victory to truly make them generational. Yet, as a guy who follows both the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers – two franchises who know something about winning things – I will tell you that Kyle Shanahan and his troops have absolutely dominated those two teams in both the regular season and the playoffs. Because of that, they have become the measuring stick for any and all NFC heavyweights. The Seattle Seahawks have passed the test a fair amount, but mostly nobody else has.
For Dallas, we wonder what the Mike McCarthy/Dak Prescott era would look like if they had answers for Shanahan. But, alas, the duo played those Niners four times and pretty much played the exact same game each time.
Dallas averaged in those four games 269 yards and 15.8 points per game while spending about 26 minutes of the game on the field. The defense hung in there a few times – partly because the 49ers offense has not always been a juggernaut – but, by the end of each game the Cowboys have been frustrated as heck on both sides of the ball.
So, here we are again. Same team, same swagger, and now Brian Schottenheimer tries to find his way to the dizzying heights of two straight wins.
He had this chance in Week 3 but lost to Baltimore. Again in Week 5 but lost to Tampa Bay. Again in Week 8 but lost to Arizona. The challenge of consecutive wins is back again.
Will Dallas have any answers this time? These are my pregame thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– The Dallas Cowboys need Dak Prescott to play one of his best games of the year and maybe one of the best games he has played to win this game. We don’t often put things on the back of QB1 because it is a team game, but he has been so poor and out of sorts against this particular opponent that we are going to suggest that it is now very much in his head. I try to do this rarely, but I am choosing this game to look at Dak and ask for his best effort.
Let me show you something that is pretty shocking stuff. Here are Dak Prescott’s numbers since the start of 2021 overall: You can see that these are the numbers of an outstanding QB across the board. 5.4 TD% and a 2.1 INT% along with 7.4 Y/A and a 98.3 Passer rating with a +100 TD/INT differential and 67.2% completions. Also, notice 5.3% sack percentage.
Now, let’s just look at that same sample against this one opponent over four games.
3.5 TD% and a 5.6 INT% with a 6.0 Y/A and a 65.3 passer rating with a -3 TD/INT differential and a 59.9% completion percentage. Sack percentage is up to 7.2%!
The difference between those two data sets are roughly from Super Bowl winners Drew Brees and Russell Wilson down to career busts like JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn.
When someone suggests that Dak doesn’t win big games, I bet they are looking at the trend here against these mighty Niners.
He must play with composure and precision to give his team a chance. Everything becomes a blur for him and he plays in a bit of panic. A great performance on Sunday would go a long way with his perception in spots like this.
On paper, our tale of the tape suggests that this should be a good matchup. Both teams have plenty to like about this side of the ball, but we do know that the Niners are the personality of a defense like Houston, but without the constant pass rush. They don’t blitz much (but more than usual because the 4-man rush is not getting it done) and they don’t get out of base defense much. They sit in zones and make you march the ball. They stop the run as well as anyone and they prevent big plays better than anyone.
Will Dallas run the ball? Will they even try? They must because without some under-center play-action, I don’t see a path to getting to 28 points. Brevyn Spann-Ford will be getting the top TE duty, but you do wonder how committed they will be to physical fights. That front four is not quite what it has been, but trading for Buckner was a boost and Bosa is still a problem. Osa Odighizuwa will surely wish to show out and he has been good for them in the middle.
On the defense, it seems that the back-end is where to try to get them, so we will need to see a strong game from George Pickens and Ryan Flournoy. I am not certain that 11 personnel is the way to go, but the Niners certainly try to put you in passing situations and then turn the screws with populated zones. They want to make you throw into passing looks and not on your own terms. This will be a good chance to demonstrate a decent offensive game-plan.
Niners Defense: No 54 - LB Fred Warner
I don’t say this lightly, but I say it every chance I get.
Fred Warner is my favorite LB in all of football.
I cannot believe how good he is and how much he affects games. He will turn 30 this week and missed much of last year with injury, but he is back and as the reel above shows from last week, he is the same guy. If you want to know who has Dak’s ultimate attention, you can bet it is No. 54.
Must play a clean game and be willing to punt rather than risk a bad turnover. They have nine giveaways in those four games against San Fran while the 49ers have just three. I would look at that “minus-6” in the turnover battle for the best reason they are 0-4.
Let’s flip it around.
When San Francisco has the ball:
– I think this is where the game gets very complicated for the Cowboys because the coaching advantage that Kyle Shanahan presents against Christian Parker is going to be felt mostly in the linebacker room as it will be vital for the rotating Cowboys LBs to play a massive role in corralling the 49ers complex and beautiful offense.
The tale of the tape will quickly explain why everyone is nervous about this matchup from a standpoint of whether Dallas has the answers they will need to pass this test.
But, it is so much more than those stats that seem to show the 49ers are really good at everything on offense, despite having almost no WR health whatsoever.
The 49ers scheme is the gold-standard. This scheme is the same scheme they were running when Kyle entered the Bay Area and it has been refined brilliantly. But, the bones are the same.
21 personnel. Motion as much as anyone could use motion. Personnel versatility where the WRs play like TEs, the TEs and FBs are interchangeable, the balance is everywhere, and the QB takes care of the ball and lives off in-breakers constantly which he throws with ease. He loves digs, posts, and other throws between the numbers. It is all so good.
Then that offensive line has been the same five every game this season. They don’t over-invest in this OL, but the one piece that changed their level was big Trent Williams when they brought him over from Washington and he just keeps destroying everything in his path, despite being 38 years old. He is absolutely elite.
Let’s look at his reel from a few weeks ago in Seattle.
49ers Offensive Feature: LT No. 71 Trent Williams
A true tone-setter and a bad man. When I think of Trent Williams I immediately go back to that wildcard game in Dallas in January 2022 when they rolled out with the boombox to Kodak Black. Again, I have to admit, the obsession is surely built in jealousy. I’m not saying this is why they are in everyone’s head like they are, but it probably doesn’t hurt.
There are all sorts of questions for the Cowboys defense. Who will be the Linebackers and will they fall for the eye candy of constant motion or will everyone play their gap properly? Will Joey Porter Jr even be out there? Will the Cowboys try to play nickel against a team that will punish you if you are too small? We saw what the Giants did against the Cowboys, well, the Giants are just playing the 49ers songs.
But, then when you load up too much with bigs to slow down the run, that is when Brock Purdy goes to work with those in-breakers off play-action. They will stretch you and make you wrong.
And lastly, if you don’t tackle well, they will make you tackle. So, this is one of those games where you might go with two safeties and have Caleb play deep instead of exposing Marquese Bell to this (assuming PJ Locke is out).
So, yeah, they give you plenty to think about. Might need a few takeaways to make this one make sense.
Prediction:
Ok, let’s wrap this up.
This is a rough matchup where Dallas can win and need to win, but picking them would either be homerism or contrarianism and I really don’t believe in either.
Yes, they can win this game but we will need to see it. The last four have largely been the exact same games with decided advantages for the 49ers vs both the Cowboys offense and defense. Given how neither side of the ball has inspired a ton of confidence and given how QB1 hasn’t played well against the Niners in about a decade, we are forced to do the common sense thing here and see if we can reverse jinx it.
49ers 27, Cowboys 17.
Prove us wrong and then tell us to “
stay on that side.” We dare you.
