Been thinking a lot about Downs dropping ever since Schrager had him dropping to 12. Obviously there's been chatter for a while now that he could drop further than expected so it's not a shock, but I think at this point it truly might be a 50/50 proposition.
As long as the Giants don't take him at 5, which seems unlikely at this point, I'm not sure who takes him before 11:
Cleveland - huge offensive needs, two capable veteran starters at safety in Hickman and Delpit, absolutely no chatter whatsoever that they might go defense, let alone safety
Skins - just signed Nick Cross for 2/13, also have Will Harris back who started every game last year, much bigger needs at CB, WR and edge, local chatter is focused on Love/Bailey if they fall and then Styles/Tate/Delane
Saints - have Justin Reid on a large-ish deal and a 2025 3rd rounder who basically started all last year, much bigger needs pretty much everywhere else except RB/LB
Chiefs - have a 17 game starter back from last year and gave Alohi Gilman 8/year
Bengals - just gave Bryan Cook 13/year and have a 17 game starter back who had 4 INT's last year
Dolphins - ???
Like sure, someone might love him and say fuck it, but given the history of guys falling at the position combined with the fact that none of these teams have obvious needs at safety, and in fact many have actually just invested quite a bit in the position via FA, I think there is a very good chance he drops to at least 11.
Now the Dolphins are a massive wild card because their roster is so horrendous, but I think I'll take my chances there with Downs falling into our laps.